Better QB Right Now: Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen

[GHARMON9]

8 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

Sure, that's something. But it's 6 games for Lamar. Only 2 have been in the last 3 seasons. One of those 2 he had 4 total TDs. How much weight do you put on a handful of games when we have plenty of regular season games of Lamar destroying playoff teams when both teams were going hard for seeding.

Never seen someone try to downplay the most important time of the year lol.

 

[wackywabbit]

30 minutes ago, GHARMON9 said:

Never seen someone try to downplay the most important time of the year lol.

 

I'm downplaying sample size. Agree with weighting playoff game more, but how much more?

It's a reverse Flacco question. Except Flacco struggled a lot more than Lamar in his first handful of playoff games. Then was amazing. But if evaluating him as a player, using ALL the games he played paints a truer picture of how good a QB he is.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00/gamelog/post/

[GHARMON9]

2 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

I'm downplaying sample size. Agree with weighting playoff game more, but how much more?

It's a reverse Flacco question. Except Flacco struggled a lot more than Lamar in his first handful of playoff games. Then was amazing. But if evaluating him as a player, using ALL the games he played paints a truer picture of how good a QB he is.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FlacJo00/gamelog/post/

I think Allen has proven to be a MUCH better Passer when looking at careers and a smidget better Overall all QB/Playmaker. A versus A-.

Lamar is better at protecting the ball, but Josh Allen produces more points and yardage. 

[iknowcool]

2 hours ago, wackywabbit said:

Sure, that's something. But it's 6 games for Lamar. Only 2 have been in the previous 3 seasons. One of those 2 he had 4 total TDs. How much weight do you put on a handful of games when we have plenty of regular season games of Lamar destroying playoff teams when both teams were going hard for seeding.

6 games is a decent sample size when it comes to the playoffs.  Are we supposed to let him off the hook because he hasn't played well enough for them to play in more games?

Jackson has 6 games in 4 playoff trips.  Allen has 10 in 5.  Only once has a Lamar Jackson-led Ravens team scored more than 20 points in a playoff game.  An Allen-led Bills team has done it 7 times.  The biggest reason Allen hasn't made it to the Super Bowl is because his defense hasn't been able to stop Mahomes (although he didn't play great in the '20-'21 game).  Ravens held the Chiefs to 17 points and lost. 

Lamar is a great QB and maybe he does turn his postseason play around.  But going off what we have seen and not "what ifs", in a big game situation, I don't know how anyone can justify taking him over Allen.  I think that is what people mean when they say "clearly".  Not that the gap between the two is huge, but that the argument is a lot easier for one than it is the other.  Jackson does have 2 MVP wins going for him, but the 2nd one came in a very weak MVP race and Allen was the superior QB the 3 previous seasons.

Edited August 14 by iknowcool

[Soko]

The playoff element is certainly a factor in my opinion of the two, but my own simple, subjective way of looking at it is this: a common theme for the Ravens’ offensive issues have been getting away from the run game/not being able to run it as much as they want to/being forced into positions where the defense knows it’s a pass/“putting it in Lamar’s hands”. That’s a negative, to me. 

Nobody ever said the Patriots lost in the postseason because you left the ball in Brady’s hands. If you knew going into a playoff game vs KC that their game plan was to run it more than throw it, you’d be ecstatic. Nobody ever looked at a Packers playoff loss and said “it’s the OC’s fault for not running it”. 1:45 on the clock, up by 4, Allen’s got the ball on his own 30 - you’re ****ing your pants. If you go up two or even three scores on a Peyton or Brees team, you’re still not really all that confident unless it’s way late in the game. 

I know the Ravens offense, particularly before last season, was geared towards running. Between Roman and the lack of receivers, it’s been the bread and butters. That’s not an indictment on Jackson. And I know Lamar’s actually performed pretty well in those situations during the regular season. It’s just in those super premium “gotta have it” moments in the postseason, I’m more scared of Allen than I am of Lamar. That’s really it. The value that Lamar might present over Allen in the regular season, to me, is washed out by the value Allen presents in pure passing situations in the postseason. JMO.

[wackywabbit]

1 hour ago, iknowcool said:

6 games is a decent sample size when it comes to the playoffs.  Are we supposed to let him off the hook because he hasn't played well enough for them to play in more games?

Again, we are talking about 2 games in the last 3+ years. One of which was objectively good and one that was objectively bad. How much should an evaluation change for the Chiefs game and others from early 2021 at the latest? It's part of the equation that should not be ignored, but it is not a lot of data.

Regarding not playing in more games, obviously that also has to do with him missing the end of season the previous two years. Valid to say that being more durable is an edge for Allen.

Also Lamar has earned a first round bye twice which takes away two (very likely) easier matchups that could have boosted his playoff stats. That works against him for the case you are making, even though it's as good as 2 more playoff wins.

Edited August 14 by wackywabbit

[Soko]

8 minutes ago, wackywabbit said:

Also Lamar has earned a first round bye twice which takes away two (very likely) easier matchups that could have boosted his playoff stats. That works against him for the case you are making, even though it's as good as 2 more playoff wins.

First round bye presents value over a playoff win for a team, but when the discussion is centered around “how does this QB generally perform in the playoffs”, then no, a bye provides nothing over a win/impressive performance. 

[wackywabbit]

5 minutes ago, Soko said:

First round bye presents value over a playoff win for a team, but when the discussion is centered around “how does this QB generally perform in the playoffs”, then no, a bye provides nothing over a win/impressive performance. 

I quoted a statement about him not playing more playoff games.

[AngusMcFife]

1 hour ago, Soko said:

The playoff element is certainly a factor in my opinion of the two, but my own simple, subjective way of looking at it is this: a common theme for the Ravens’ offensive issues have been getting away from the run game/not being able to run it as much as they want to/being forced into positions where the defense knows it’s a pass/“putting it in Lamar’s hands”. That’s a negative, to me. 

Nobody ever said the Patriots lost in the postseason because you left the ball in Brady’s hands. If you knew going into a playoff game vs KC that their game plan was to run it more than throw it, you’d be ecstatic. Nobody ever looked at a Packers playoff loss and said “it’s the OC’s fault for not running it”. 1:45 on the clock, up by 4, Allen’s got the ball on his own 30 - you’re ****ing your pants. If you go up two or even three scores on a Peyton or Brees team, you’re still not really all that confident unless it’s way late in the game.

The problem with this argument is that in late-game passing situations when the Ravens have to throw, Lamar is one of the best in the league. He outperforms Mahomes and Brady. This is a very old Lamar trope that should have been put to bed awhile ago by anyone who actually wanted to dig in to the topic, rather than lazily rehash 2018 talking points.

Edited August 14 by AngusMcFife
format edit

[Soko]

5 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

The problem with this argument is that in late-game passing situations when the Ravens have to throw, Lamar is one of the best in the league. He outperforms Mahomes and Brady. This is a very old Lamar trope that should have been put to bed awhile ago by anyone who actually wanted to dig in to the topic, rather than lazily rehash 2018 talking points.

Which postseason games are you referring to? 
 

1 hour ago, Soko said:

And I know Lamar’s actually performed pretty well in those situations during the regular season. It’s just in those super premium “gotta have it” moments in the postseason, I’m more scared of Allen than I am of Lamar. 

 

[AFlaccoSeagulls]

11 minutes ago, Soko said:

Which postseason games are you referring to? 
 

 

Have the Ravens even been in any of these situations in the post-season outside of this most recent season? 

Chargers we got blown out.

Bills Lamar was injured.

Bengals Lamar was injured.

Chiefs Lamar actually did deliver late, Zay Flowers just fumbled the game away.

[AngusMcFife]

6 minutes ago, Soko said:

Which postseason games are you referring to? 
 

 

Alright I may have skimmed too quickly there... speaking of being lazy.

Your quote, though, states

Quote

Lamar’s actually performed pretty well in those situations during the regular season

Lamar has been elite in those situations. Do you think being down 4 with 3:00 minutes left in the regular season is a fundamentally different scenario than the same situation in the playoffs? I don't really see the difference. Lamar has a 120 QB rating in those situations.

I think given the kind of weather you face in the postseason, Allen's size and arm strength give him an advantage over Lamar in the elements.

But I don't think there is evidence to support Lamar's skill set is diminished in "gotta have it" moments.

And it is unclear to me how much past playoff success is predictive of future success.

Quote

a common theme for the Ravens’ offensive issues have been getting away from the run game/not being able to run it as much as they want to/being forced into positions where the defense knows it’s a pass/“putting it in Lamar’s hands”

Eh, I don't know about this. A common theme for the Ravens' offense struggles is in some games the offensive plays they call don't always work as well as they do at other times. Every single defense in the league wants to put the offense in a position where they have to pass.

 

[Soko]

49 minutes ago, AFlaccoSeagulls said:

Have the Ravens even been in any of these situations in the post-season outside of this most recent season? 

Chargers we got blown out.

Bills Lamar was injured.

Bengals Lamar was injured.

Chiefs Lamar actually did deliver late, Zay Flowers just fumbled the game away.

I mean, that was at the start of the 4th quarter, no? Would’ve been a whopping second score of the game. There were two more possessions after that fumble by Flowers - an interception and a field goal. That’s not really what I’d quantify as “delivering late” in the realm of this discussion, but to each their own. 

So there was last year vs KC, and not much else. 

But yeah, my point wasn’t really centered around history of one score late games. It was how much trust do you actually have in Lamar delivering in those playoff scenarios? The answer for me is: less than I do with Josh. Josh blows games by playing hero ball at times, and I’ve always said the absolute most dangerous version of the Bills is when they’re in structure and Allen isn’t forcing it - but at the end of the day, when it comes to an elite QB, I don’t like hearing “they lost because they put it in the QB’s hands and got away from the run”. Not in the postseason.

[Soko]

1 minute ago, AngusMcFife said:

Alright I may have skimmed too quickly there... speaking of being lazy.

Your quote, though, states

Lamar has been elite in those situations. Do you think being down 4 with 3:00 minutes left in the regular season is a fundamentally different scenario than the same situation in the playoffs? I don't really see the difference. Lamar has a 120 QB rating in those situations.

I think given the kind of weather you face in the postseason, Allen's size and arm strength give him an advantage over Lamar in the elements.

But I don't think there is evidence to support Lamar's skill set is diminished in "gotta have it" moments.

And it is unclear to me how much past playoff success is predictive of future success.

Not to be a jerk, but the evidence we have of Allen performing in the playoffs “with the ball in his hands” vs that of Lamar’s, isn’t particularly close IMO. I don’t really have a desire to dive into that aspect of this, because I think the only retort is dismissing the sample size.  What we’ve actually seen from Josh throwing it vs Lamar throwing it in the playoffs isn’t something I really view as close.

1 minute ago, AngusMcFife said:

Eh, I don't know about this. A common theme for the Ravens' offense struggles is in some games the offensive plays they call don't always work as well as they do at other times. Every single defense in the league wants to put the offense in a position where they have to pass.

Well, yeah. No defense likes being threatened with both the pass and the run, that’s trouble for them. But that seems to be a near-kill shot for the Ravens/Lamar offenses, and I haven’t really ever seen that said quite so much about Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, Peyton, Brees, or the elite passers.

Obviously having a strong run game isn’t a bad thing. But when you have an elite quarterback, it doesn’t really sit well with me that the headline after a playoff loss is “we couldn’t/didn’t run it, so the offense sputtered”. It’s admittedly subjective, not trying to say that that’s the way everyone needs to look at it. 

[AngusMcFife]

1 minute ago, Soko said:

but at the end of the day, when it comes to an elite QB, I don’t like hearing “they lost because they put it in the QB’s hands and got away from the run”. Not in the postseason.

Some fans think that was the reason they lost the Chiefs game, but you may be uncritically buying a faulty narrative. I for one was fine with the playcalling. Chiefs did a great filling the gaps, constricting the pocket, and dominating the WRs. Ravens had no more dynamic RBs left on the roster, their only hope was to pass in wet conditions and it didn't work out.