ESPN Story on Patriots

[lancerman]

Just now, RollEagles said:

And what about the context that Kolb didn't particularly look all that great in those games. And that the Patriots knew what they had in Jimmy G while also having some people in the building recognize that Brady's goal of playing to 45 at a high level is entirely unrealistic 

Kolb atleast had a realistic sample size to evaluate. Jimmy had 6 quarters and then got injured. So not only did he have a small sample size, you have to wonder if he's an injury liability. 

The Patriots knew what they had. The rest of the league didn't. Don't forget the rest of the league bought Matt Cassell because of an 11-5 season. 

Also Brady's goal of playing to 45 is not the most realistic, but if he plays just 2 or 3 more years at this level, that's worth more than Jimmy playing 15 years. 2 or 3 more years of Brady at this level is Super Bowl potential. The Niner's won't even be in a position to actually compete for 2 or 3 more years by which point Jimmy will be in his 6th or 7th season in the league. 

[WeaponX]

1 minute ago, lancerman said:

Kolb atleast had a realistic sample size to evaluate. Jimmy had 6 quarters and then got injured. So not only did he have a small sample size, you have to wonder if he's an injury liability. 

The Patriots knew what they had. The rest of the league didn't. Don't forget the rest of the league bought Matt Cassell because of an 11-5 season. 

Also Brady's goal of playing to 45 is not the most realistic, but if he plays just 2 or 3 more years at this level, that's worth more than Jimmy playing 15 years. 2 or 3 more years of Brady at this level is Super Bowl potential. The Niner's won't even be in a position to actually compete for 2 or 3 more years by which point Jimmy will be in his 6th or 7th season in the league. 

Do you think Brady is going to play 2 or 3 years at his past levels?

Because there's a drop off this year with him. Not to the point that he isn't great anymore. But to the point that it's noticeable to his past standard.

[lancerman]

1 minute ago, Forge said:

Are you talking about heading into the season, or at the deadline? 

I'm talking about at the deadline. At the deadline the Patriots had very little leverage, had failed to get a deal done, were unlikely to get a 1st round pick (lets be real here, no playoff team was giving up anything in the first round for Jimmy, and no team with a top 15 pick was either). Going into last season maybe they could have got a 12 from the Browns, but that was like the best case scenario, and even then you had Browns fans screaming bloody murder over it. 

The reality is, the Jimmy Garoppolo situation was poor timing for the Patriots. They got him in a down year for Brady where it looked like he was on the decline, then Brady proceeded to play some of the best football of his career for several years and got two Super Bowls on top of it and was committing to playing several more years. They kept Jimmy as a failsafe, Brady didn't decline, they couldn't get a good deal done. A decision had to be made one way or the other or they lose Jimmy for nothing. 

[WeaponX]

Just a reminder that at the deadline, the Browns were willing to give up a 2nd and 3rd round pick for AJ McCarron.

[Forge]

Just now, lancerman said:

I'm talking about at the deadline. At the deadline the Patriots had very little leverage, had failed to get a deal done, were unlikely to get a 1st round pick (lets be real here, no playoff team was giving up anything in the first round for Jimmy, and no team with a top 15 pick was either). Going into last season maybe they could have got a 12 from the Browns, but that was like the best case scenario, and even then you had Browns fans screaming bloody murder over it. 

The reality is, the Jimmy Garoppolo situation was poor timing for the Patriots. They got him in a down year for Brady where it looked like he was on the decline, then Brady proceeded to play some of the best football of his career for several years and got two Super Bowls on top of it and was committing to playing several more years. They kept Jimmy as a failsafe, Brady didn't decline, they couldn't get a good deal done. A decision had to be made one way or the other or they lose Jimmy for nothing. 

Oh, at the deadline, I think you are largely correct. Do I think that they could have gotten more? Yeah, probably a little if they had decided to try and start a bidding battle. But honestly, I don't know how much the 49ers would have been willing to give up (they didn't have the draft capital that Cleveland does), so their offer may have been capped at the 2 already. Would the Browns have parted with a 2 and 5 or 6 or something just to beat out the 49ers offer? Yeah, I think that they may have. But would that have been worth it to potentially hinder Jimmy G moving forward, particularly if BB really did like him and was at least giving some consideration to his best interest? Something like a 5th/6th round pick is pretty nominal, and he may not have felt it was worth it to do that to Jimmy (I think that there were also rumors that Jimmy G and his agent wanted nothing to do with Cleveland). I think it could have been similar to what the 49ers did with Bowman, who they apparently had a trade worked out for, then just decided to cut him and let him choose as a goodwill gesture. The situations aren't exactly the same (the deal for Bowman was only a 7th or something I think), but similar mindset. So even if BB didn't take all that he could get in the JG trade, I don't think he lost out on a whole ton. Definitely don't think that he would have gotten a first, don't think that he would have gotten a 2 / 3. I mean, I could be wrong of course, but yeah, I don't think that the Pats left a whole lot on the table at the deadline. Now, did they lose a lot of value between the start of the season and the deadline? Yes, I think that they did. 

[lancerman]

2 minutes ago, RollEagles said:

Do you think Brady is going to play 2 or 3 years at his past levels?

Because there's a drop off this year with him. Not to the point that he isn't great anymore. But to the point that it's noticeable to his past standard.

Tom Brady's last game was a 102 passer rating, 3TD's with 0 INT's, 337 yards, 66% completion percentage. Two weeks before that he had another 106 passer rating against Buffalo where he had another very good game. That's 2 of his last 3 games. He had a bad game against Miami and a couple average games after playing at an MVP level all season. That's not a drop off. At some point you are going to have a couple average games. Especially when he lost his best receiving target in Gronk for the one bad game. 

Do I think it's realistic that he plays 2 or 3 years at the level he played this year? I don't know. last year a report came out that said the Patriots internal staff thought he had 3-5 years left. I don't know how true that is. 

Here's the thing, all that said. Nobody has any idea how good Jimmy will be. He came in hot after the Niner's fielded straight trash all year. Does that he sustains it after a few teams get more tape on him. We've seen MANY QB's struggle after a hot start. Maybe Jimmy only reaches Tony Romo levels. He might be really good, it's still well below Brady. 

The reality is nobody knows what's going to happen. Last year people said because Brady played bad against Houston in the playoffs and the first half against Atlanta that he was in decline. Then he had an MVP caliber season. Nobody knows.

 

[Forge]

9 minutes ago, RollEagles said:

Just a reminder that at the deadline, the Browns were willing to give up a 2nd and 3rd round pick for AJ McCarron.

Different situation. One, Hue has a relationship with AJ. Two, AJ (currently) has more team control left as just an RFA (believe he's fighting for UFA status), and three, he actually had a larger sample size than Jimmy G (not by much, but slightly bigger. Probably not enough to change compensation, but you never know). That was also a trade within the same division, which could spike the cost. It was also after Jimmy G was definitely off the table even moving forward into next year (The niners weren't letting him go this off season after trading for him). There could have been some desperation in there, and that is a stinky cologne.