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2018 NFL Draft Discussion


squire12

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1 hour ago, cannondale said:

I thought I was crystal clear. I want NFL caliber CB's regardless of draft investment. The tallest midget doesn't mean good

Edit: For the record I was one of the very few that had Randall's back when everyone else wanted him cut. But that doesn't mean I want to hand him the starting job if he isn't capable

I mean, which of Davon House, Kevin King, or Damarious Randall aren't "NFL caliber"?  That's where I'm confused.  They all have shown the ability to play at a high level, but we've never been real productive at the same time.  Was going into the season with Kevin King as the #3 CB unreasonable?  I'd venture to guess that wasn't the plan.  I'd make the argument that they planned on improvement for Randall and Rollins.  King was supposed to be our #4 CB going into the season.  Unfortunately, Rollins didn't really improve and then struggled with injury which forced King into the #3 role.  All things considered, we were unproven but talented going into the season.  Obviously, things didn't go ideally but it also was a near worst case scenario.  For me, your top 2 corners are guys you have implicit confidence in.   You're not going to give them help over the top consistently.  Your #3 CB is someone you think can play at a starters' level for a reasonable amount of time, but probably needs a bit of help.  Your #4 CB is a guy you like moving forward.  That's the "ideal" depth chart for your CBs.

At some point, you have to throw your young players to the wolves so to speak.  Did the Packers go into 2017 with a bit too much faith?  Probably.  But the alternative was signing two veteran corners, which meant either Quentin Rollins or Kevin King as your 5th corner.  Going into 2017, did you feel it'd be wise to do so?  Of course not.  They're not going to bury a former 1st or 2nd round pick to 5th on the DC. 

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1 hour ago, packfanfb said:

That's what House is...a backup CB. Call him no. 3 or 4 idc. Bottom line is that I don't trust House (based on ability or health to be a No. 1-2 CB) but I'd gladly taken him over Rollins or the UDFA rag tags we currently have on our team in a backup role. If he's too good for that like you say, fine replace him with someone who is less than House but more than what we currently have. 

You gave your DC above...mine isnt drastically different. We need: FA starter, King, Randall, FA backup, rookie, ST player --- assuming we are keeping 6 CBs.

Calling Davon House a #4 CB is a stretch.  We saw him play at a high level in Jacksonville, and he struggled with health this year.  There's no real reason to believe that he couldn't continue to play at a high level.  When healthy, he's a decent #2.  But your depth chart is incredibly unrealistic.  You're not going to get a veteran FA to sign on to be your 4th corner.  Why would any veteran CB sign on to be the 4th corner?  They wouldn't.  Go look at the NFL DC and look for a team who had a veteran CB (i.e. not on a rookie contract) whose the teams' 4th corner that'd be a starting CB elsewhere.  You won't.  Your 4th corner WILL NOT be a veteran FA.

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1 hour ago, cannondale said:

No thanks. Either you get what I'm saying or you don't. I didn't think it was that complicated. It's turning into a "prove to me Capers sucks" discussion and I'm not biting

So you can't explain what you mean?  If you believe so strongly in your stance, you should be able to explain it relatively easy.

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1 hour ago, wgbeethree said:

Am I the only one who doesn't get it with Josh Jackson? At 14????

He's got great ball skills but they rarely had him press at Iowa and he doesn't seem like a very willing tackler. I'm also usually pretty weary of one year wonders and pretty much ignore stats when looking at a guy. If we ran a zone heavy scheme I could see an early second round grade but everything seems to point to Pettine preferring to play press man coverage (Please correct me if I'm wrong.). While he's not exactly "small" or "slow" there's a legit chance he ends up being the lightest and/or slowest player in the top 10 or so ranked CBs at the combine. 

Honestly, I don't think any of the corners in this year's class stand up to Marshon Lattimore.  Hell, I'd probably take Marlon Humphrey and Gareon Conley.  But admittedly, I haven't really dug into the CB prospects too hard.

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3 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I really, really want to know what your expectations for our CB depth chart is.

CB1 - FA signing
CB2 - Randall (playing star)
CB3 - Kevin King
CB4 - House 

OR

CB1 - Randall (playing star)
CB2 - King/pick
CB3 - pick/King
CB4 - House

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19 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

CB1 - FA signing
CB2 - Randall (playing star)
CB3 - Kevin King
CB4 - House 

OR

CB1 - Randall (playing star)
CB2 - King/pick
CB3 - pick/King
CB4 - House

I just don't see a scenario in which Davon House agrees to come back as your 4th CB.

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Just now, CWood21 said:
20 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

CB1 - FA signing
CB2 - Randall (playing star)
CB3 - Kevin King
CB4 - House 

OR

CB1 - Randall (playing star)
CB2 - King/pick
CB3 - pick/King
CB4 - House

I just don't see a scenario in which Davon House agrees to come back as your 4th CB.

You just tell him that after 3 weeks he will be our CB1

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15 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly, I don't think any of the corners in this year's class stand up to Marshon Lattimore.  Hell, I'd probably take Marlon Humphrey and Gareon Conley.  But admittedly, I haven't really dug into the CB prospects too hard.

I was thinking about this the other day. For years I've been falling for a bunch of guys that end up going in the mid teens. This year a lot the guys I really like seem like stretches there. Might be just the you want what you can't have factor but I'm just not super excited about the guys projected to go in our range. 

Sometimes when you get a high pick is as important if not more so than where you pick. An NBA mock draft I was looking at the other day got me thinking about it actually. IMO the number 5 pick in the NBA draft this year is probably equal to a number 1 pick in a lot of years. 

If you get the #1 pick in 85 or 87 you get Patrick Ewing or David Robison. If you get the #1 pick in 86 you get Brad Daugherty. If you get the #1 pick in 97 you get Tim Duncan. In 98 you get Michael Olowokandi. In 2003 and 2004 you get LeBron and Dwight Howard. In 2005 you get Andrew Bogut. If you get the #1 pick in 2012 you get Anthony Davis. In 2013 you get Anthony Bennett.

Sometimes you can't win for losing.

Different sport obviously but goes to show just how much difference the value of the same pick can be from year to year. 

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17 minutes ago, wgbeethree said:

Different sport obviously but goes to show just how much difference the value of the same pick can be from year to year. 

It's not really a valid comparison, but I do appreciate the effort.  The talent level in the NBA draft is just so thin it's not really comparable.  You might only get a couple of good starters in any given draft.

But to your other point, each draft has it's strengths and weaknesses.  A LOT of people put way too much stock into the QB class, and use that as the barometer for how talented a class is.

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1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly, I don't think any of the corners in this year's class stand up to Marshon Lattimore.  Hell, I'd probably take Marlon Humphrey and Gareon Conley.  But admittedly, I haven't really dug into the CB prospects too hard.

I really like Denzel Ward as a pure prospect. Not as much as I liked Lattimore, who I think was the Jets pick if Adams went before them. I had him mocked there anyway, so it's more than likely right.

I think I would go Lattimore > Ward > Humphrey > Conley. But this is of course with no combine, and after Lattimore ran what he did... whew. Still can't believe he wasn't picked higher. Saints grabbed two of my fav guys the last 2 years in Lattimore and Rankins

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3 minutes ago, JBURGE25 said:

I really like Denzel Ward as a pure prospect. Not as much as I liked Lattimore, who I think was the Jets pick if Adams went before them. I had him mocked there anyway, so it's more than likely right.

I think I would go Lattimore > Ward > Humphrey > Conley. But this is of course with no combine, and after Lattimore ran what he did... whew. Still can't believe he wasn't picked higher. Saints grabbed two of my fav guys the last 2 years in Lattimore and Rankins

Assuming the height stipulations are in place, I wouldn't be surprised if they stood clear of Ward.  Pretty sure he's 5'10" if not shorter.  If it weren't for Lattimore's hamstring, he'd have been a consensus top 5 prospect.  I had him as my 3rd overall prospect behind Myles Garrett and Solomon Thomas, so his success wasn't surprising.  I was more surprised about how good he was so soon.  I figured he'd have some bumps early on.  Ironically, both of the Ohio State DBs (Hooker and Lattimore) had significant injury concerns tied to them  I liked Humphrey quite a bit.  I haven't really looked into how he did, but I thought he had some issues that needed to be worked out but was a 14th best prospect.  Gareon Conley I thought had the best pure man skills in the class, but instincts weren't quite there and the character issues that were looming were red flags IIRC.  Last year's CB class was stacked.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

Assuming the height stipulations are in place, I wouldn't be surprised if they stood clear of Ward.  Pretty sure he's 5'10" if not shorter.  If it weren't for Lattimore's hamstring, he'd have been a consensus top 5 prospect.  I had him as my 3rd overall prospect behind Myles Garrett and Solomon Thomas, so his success wasn't surprising.  I was more surprised about how good he was so soon.  I figured he'd have some bumps early on.  Ironically, both of the Ohio State DBs (Hooker and Lattimore) had significant injury concerns tied to them  I liked Humphrey quite a bit.  I haven't really looked into how he did, but I thought he had some issues that needed to be worked out but was a 14th best prospect.  Gareon Conley I thought had the best pure man skills in the class, but instincts weren't quite there and the character issues that were looming were red flags IIRC.  Last year's CB class was stacked.

I had Hooker as my 3rd best player in the draft lol I think Lattimore was 5? I can't remember

I like Ward for us. I don't care about the height thing. He might be short but man is he sticky. Certainly like him a lot more than Josh Jackson. I can see Jackson having a Casey Heyward-esque first year with turnovers, but I think he will struggle when asked to play outside man coverage early on

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23 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

It's not really a valid comparison, but I do appreciate the effort.  The talent level in the NBA draft is just so thin it's not really comparable.  You might only get a couple of good starters in any given draft.

But to your other point, each draft has it's strengths and weaknesses.  A LOT of people put way too much stock into the QB class, and use that as the barometer for how talented a class is.

Really tough to compare the two obviously but my point is that the same draft spot can have vastly different value based on when you have it (and what you need) and that is lost on a lot of people. I think we can mostly all agree on that.

Let's say we need a CB and the height requirements are still applicable for us.... you could easily argue  Lattimore, Conley, Humphrey, King, and White in last year's draft would all have higher grades than anyone in this class... therefore the 33rd pick would be as valuable to you in last year's draft as any pick in this years.

My point in one run on sentence.....

The vast majority of people fail to realize that the draft is so different in both overall talent and positional specific talent each year that the value of any certain numbered draft pick varies greatly from not just year to year but even team by team based on need.

 

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3 hours ago, cannondale said:

No thanks. Either you get what I'm saying or you don't. I didn't think it was that complicated. It's turning into a "prove to me Capers sucks" discussion and I'm not biting

Honestly not at all. Just trying to open it up and see exactly what CB you'd advocate bringing in and how much you're willing to pay. 

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