SDotNova Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 14 minutes ago, JetsandI said: Mayfield's 56 pct in under pressure? It had to be low amount of attempts since he played shot gun all the time with one of NCAA's best pass protecting OL. If it was high amount of attempts then he held football too long. I have slightly different numbers than you. But Mayfield was pressured more than you would think. I get that he benefited from a QB friendly system. But, if you try and normalize his stats, his numbers still pop. DBS PRS ADJ PCT PCT Mayfield: 462 126 (27%) 68.4 50.6 Allen: 315 129 (41%) 52.6 37.9 Rosen 489 142 (29% ) 68.9 48.2 Darnold 541 168 (31%) 59.8 48.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsandI Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 2 minutes ago, SDotNova said: I have slightly different numbers than you. But Mayfield was pressured more than you would think. I get that he benefited from a QB friendly system. But, if you try and normalize his stats, his numbers still pop. DBS PRS ADJ PCT PCT Mayfield: 462 126 (27%) 68.4 50.6 Allen: 315 129 (41%) 52.6 37.9 Rosen 489 142 (29% ) 68.9 48.2 Darnold 541 168 (31%) 59.8 48.0 I accept those number. 56 is too high for Air Raid qb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 2 hours ago, SDotNova said: But what about the stat that shows Baker is the most accurate QB of the bunch on NFL throws? I don’t agree with this stat like I’ve stated. Let’s say McCown throws to a War that has 5yds of separation and Brees throws a pass that’s threading a needle on a 15yd out route... both show competitions. But one wa aclearky more accurate. My point is Mayfields body of work was mostly that of what I just McCown completed rather than Brees. I’m by no means saying mayfield isn’t accurate. I just hate the stats of saying he is. Like I’ve stated several times... then a Texas Tech qb should be a 1st Rounder every single draft if we are going by that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDotNova Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 5 minutes ago, Bobby816 said: I don’t agree with this stat like I’ve stated. Let’s say McCown throws to a War that has 5yds of separation and Brees throws a pass that’s threading a needle on a 15yd out route... both show competitions. But one wa aclearky more accurate. My point is Mayfields body of work was mostly that of what I just McCown completed rather than Brees. I’m by no means saying mayfield isn’t accurate. I just hate the stats of saying he is. Like I’ve stated several times... then a Texas Tech qb should be a 1st Rounder every single draft if we are going by that. But that is what NFL throws is adjusting for. PFF is essentially separating the difficulty of throws. So on those more difficult throws which they categorize as NFL throws, Mayfield is still accurate. An example of an NFL throw is something like an out route that is thrown into a tight window. If a receiver has more than a yard of separation, it wouldn't be considered an NFL throw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rampantjet Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bobby816 said: I don’t agree with this stat like I’ve stated. Let’s say McCown throws to a War that has 5yds of separation and Brees throws a pass that’s threading a needle on a 15yd out route... both show competitions. But one wa aclearky more accurate. My point is Mayfields body of work was mostly that of what I just McCown completed rather than Brees. I’m by no means saying mayfield isn’t accurate. I just hate the stats of saying he is. Like I’ve stated several times... then a Texas Tech qb should be a 1st Rounder every single draft if we are going by that. To be fair Mahomes was drafted in the first round out of Texas Tech last year and his comp % was 5 points less than Bakers, with less TD's and more picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 2 hours ago, SDotNova said: But that is what NFL throws is adjusting for. PFF is essentially separating the difficulty of throws. So on those more difficult throws which they categorize as NFL throws, Mayfield is still accurate. An example of an NFL throw is something like an out route that is thrown into a tight window. If a receiver has more than a yard of separation, it wouldn't be considered an NFL throw. But the stats overall body of work is still factoring in his wide open receivers as well to go along with NfL quality throws. That’s why I keep stating that I’m not saying Mayfield isn’t accurate. I just am tired of hearing these completion percentage stats garbage. It’s a stat it doesn’t show any X factors like the defense, how many men were in coverage, was he under pressure, how good is the receiver he’s throwing to, how was his protection for that pass? All those things don’t show up. And if you look at all the top QBs Mayfield is aided by every last thing I just said. He had the most air raid offense, has the bet receivers, best OLine, weekeat competition, etc. And that’s why I think those tats are skewed. You put the other 3 guys as starters for multiple years at OU, I believe they all put up similar stats. Some maybe even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 2 hours ago, rampantjet said: To be fair Mahomes was drafted in the first round out of Texas Tech last year and his comp % was 5 points less than Bakers, with less TD's and more picks. Mahomes also took probably 4 times the amount of risky passes and down field passes as Mayfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rampantjet Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 1 minute ago, Bobby816 said: Mahomes also took probably 4 times the amount of risky passes and down field passes as Mayfield. Mahomes 8.5 yards per attempt, Baker 11.5 yards per attempt. If he was really throwing deep a ton more he wouldn't have averaged 3 years less per attempt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted March 30, 2018 Share Posted March 30, 2018 7 minutes ago, rampantjet said: Mahomes 8.5 yards per attempt, Baker 11.5 yards per attempt. If he was really throwing deep a ton more he wouldn't have averaged 3 years less per attempt. Yet another skewed stat. I like how you left out that Mahomes had 190 more pass attempts than Mayfield. I’ll also add that you’re completely leaving out how good each teams running game. Mahomes went against 7 guys in the secondary almost the time bc TTU has no run game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rampantjet Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 9 minutes ago, Bobby816 said: Yet another skewed stat. I like how you left out that Mahomes had 190 more pass attempts than Mayfield. I’ll also add that you’re completely leaving out how good each teams running game. Mahomes went against 7 guys in the secondary almost the time bc TTU has no run game. .... How does his total attempts have any effect on an average? Math makes your argument not make any sense. Yes OU had a better rushing attack, but mostly because TTU never used it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 1 hour ago, rampantjet said: .... How does his total attempts have any effect on an average? Math makes your argument not make any sense. Yes OU had a better rushing attack, but mostly because TTU never used it. The more passing attempts you have means the worse your running game is. It also means the more likelihood that you took shots downfield and threw more risky passes. Which was what we were talking about. You brought up the apc stat. And pretty much straight across the board, the more are most you have the less your apc is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDotNova Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 I'm not sure you've taking a look at all their stats. Agree that adjusted completion percentage, deep pass percentage, and completion percentage against the blitz can be skewed. But their NFL throw percentage is pretty comparable across QB's. That percentage removes passes to receivers that are wide open. That stat only includes passes to receivers that have less than 1 yard of separation and there are other factors which I am forgetting. Also their stats for percentage under pressure is pretty useful. This removes difference in o line play. A QB under pressure is a QB under pressure. How good an offensive line is doesn't matter at that point. i wouldn't call their stats garbage especially the NFL throw and under pressure one. It's one piece of a puzzle that can be used to understand a QB. All but 2 NFL teams use pff stats. Not sure who the 2 are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KBS756 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 9 minutes ago, SDotNova said: I'm not sure you've taking a look at all their stats. Agree that adjusted completion percentage, deep pass percentage, and completion percentage against the blitz can be skewed. But their NFL throw percentage is pretty comparable across QB's. That percentage removes passes to receivers that are wide open. That stat only includes passes to receivers that have less than 1 yard of separation and there are other factors which I am forgetting. Also their stats for percentage under pressure is pretty useful. This removes difference in o line play. A QB under pressure is a QB under pressure. How good an offensive line is doesn't matter at that point. i wouldn't call their stats garbage especially the NFL throw and under pressure one. It's one piece of a puzzle that can be used to understand a QB. All but 2 NFL teams use pff stats. Not sure who the 2 are. Does the nfl throw percentage adjust for dropped passes ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby816 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 7 minutes ago, SDotNova said: I'm not sure you've taking a look at all their stats. Agree that adjusted completion percentage, deep pass percentage, and completion percentage against the blitz can be skewed. But their NFL throw percentage is pretty comparable across QB's. That percentage removes passes to receivers that are wide open. That stat only includes passes to receivers that have less than 1 yard of separation and there are other factors which I am forgetting. Also their stats for percentage under pressure is pretty useful. This removes difference in o line play. A QB under pressure is a QB under pressure. How good an offensive line is doesn't matter at that point. i wouldn't call their stats garbage especially the NFL throw and under pressure one. It's one piece of a puzzle that can be used to understand a QB. All but 2 NFL teams use pff stats. Not sure who the 2 are. And like I said... I'm not saying that Mayfield isn't accurate. I'm saying that his high percentage is a skewed stat. A small percentage of his actual throws are these throws you're talking about. So I'm not saying he wont be accurate. I'm saying raving about his adjust percentages and all is rather pointless to me. There's loads of accurate college QBs who were awful in the NFL and loads of inaccurate college QBs who were accurate in the NFL. The system isn't getting factored in enough when evaluating Mayfield is really my point. And the same should be said that Allen's surrounding talent. His stats would be a lot better if he had any kind of legit talent around him. I still rate my QBs as 1. Rosen 2. Darnold 3. Mayfield 4 Allen. But my window is closing on my difference between Mayfield and Allen tbh. I think Mayfields ceiling is very low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KBS756 Posted March 31, 2018 Share Posted March 31, 2018 1 minute ago, Bobby816 said: And like I said... I'm not saying that Mayfield isn't accurate. I'm saying that his high percentage is a skewed stat. A small percentage of his actual throws are these throws you're talking about. So I'm not saying he wont be accurate. I'm saying raving about his adjust percentages and all is rather pointless to me. There's loads of accurate college QBs who were awful in the NFL and loads of inaccurate college QBs who were accurate in the NFL. The system isn't getting factored in enough when evaluating Mayfield is really my point. And the same should be said that Allen's surrounding talent. His stats would be a lot better if he had any kind of legit talent around him. I still rate my QBs as 1. Rosen 2. Darnold 3. Mayfield 4 Allen. But my window is closing on my difference between Mayfield and Allen tbh. I think Mayfields ceiling is very low. I think the main thing that’s the problem with how mayfield is being discussed is the fact he’d be a lot higher if he was an inch and a half taller. But given his height he’s gonna have to adjust to the nfl game in that he’s gonna have to learn to find his windows like Brees his 2 comps would be Brees and russel Wilson brees finds windows and knows how to find them (slots to throw from I mean) ... Wilson he’s always running and playmaking ... mayfield is nowhere near as fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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