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Broncos decline Shane Ray's 5th year option

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Hmmm...would Ray make a decent LEO for the 9ers? I could be okay with giving up even a 3rd (4th or 5th would be easy to give up) if he could fill that role and do well at it. Not asking him to blow anyone away, just be a good outside pass rusher.

Doubt my 9ers trade for any pass rusher, but they certainly didn't think any in the draft could help them...

Denver would probably kill to get a 3rd or even 4th for Ray. He is not a good player. Without Von opposite him, he is probably a 4-6 sack a year caliber full time starter. And he is a big liability vs. the run.

Shaq Barrett has outplayed him every year and unlike Ray is really strong vs. the run. But really, both have blown their opportunities to replace Ware. Doubling Von basically neutralized Denver's pass rush. Chubb was not a pure BPA pick at #5, they needed a pass rusher badly. 

Edited by BroncoBruin

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2 hours ago, Chrissooner49er said:

Hmmm...would Ray make a decent LEO for the 9ers? I could be okay with giving up even a 3rd (4th or 5th would be easy to give up) if he could fill that role and do well at it. Not asking him to blow anyone away, just be a good outside pass rusher.

Doubt my 9ers trade for any pass rusher, but they certainly didn't think any in the draft could help them...

You should not be okay with giving up a third rounder for a guy who has had an up and down career and is on the last year of his contract. His highs haven't been elite or anything and his most recent play has been suspect. 

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7 minutes ago, Forge said:

You should not be okay with giving up a third rounder for a guy who has had an up and down career and is on the last year of his contract. His highs haven't been elite or anything and his most recent play has been suspect. 

His highs look great in the box score and not so great on film when you see Von chasing QBs directly into him while he's engaged with linemen. He really is just a guy. As a rotational piece, you can definitely do worse. But he's no difference maker. 

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35 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

His highs look great in the box score and not so great on film when you see Von chasing QBs directly into him while he's engaged with linemen. He really is just a guy. As a rotational piece, you can definitely do worse. But he's no difference maker. 

Got it! Thanks. Then I will be happy that the 9ers do not appear to be pursuing him.

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46 minutes ago, Forge said:

You should not be okay with giving up a third rounder for a guy who has had an up and down career and is on the last year of his contract. His highs haven't been elite or anything and his most recent play has been suspect. 

It depended on the type of impact he could have. I have not been following him but liked him when he was drafted, that's all. It is now obvious he has not lived up to his draft position. Too bad.

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Posted (edited)

To be fair to Ray, while I agree with @BroncoBruin's assessment on his 2016 stats being inflated by Von, it's possible he has a big bump in his play level this year.    Why?  Well, basically 2017 was a lost year with the wrist injury in August.   While people return to play within 6-8 weeks, as we see in baseball, players with wrist injuries don't get return of full power until about 6 months after repair.   So while Ray was well enough to play, he wasn't nearly 100 percent last year.   Looking at his 2017 play isn't nearly an accurate predictor of how he'll do now.  Then again, it's fair to say 2016 wasn't all on his ability, Von drawing extra protection and flushing the QB helped him a ton.

Still, if DEN was offered a 3rd or even a 4th rounder, I'd bet Elway would take that in a heartbeat.   The top 5 FA's (or so) get an end-of-3rd comp pick for 2020.   Anything greater than a 4th is an automatic win.   Frankly, even if Ray plays well, I seriously doubt that he'd get a top 5 FA contract (goes by AAV, and playing time and awards like Pro Bowls factor in).   I think the most we could hope to get from a comp pick is likely a 2020 end-of-4th or end-of-5th.    With Chubb in the fold and Barrett healthy, though, I think a 5th/6th is the best we'd get comp pick wise.   Ironically, it's also why taking the 5th year option makes so much sense - if he played well, he'd be more tradeable than a 2020 end-of-5th/end-of-6th, and if he didn't, we'd just let him walk (and still collect a comp pick).  The only risk was if he got hurt late in the season (or so badly) to the point he couldn't pass a March 2019 physical.   Oh well. 

Edited by Broncofan

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