Bell contract 2018

[3rivers]

1 minute ago, wwhickok said:

Idk if anyone has done the research but I wonder how many RBs have had a year+ off and come back to effective the next season. Bell hasnt had a meaningful game since last season.

This I am not familiar with but someone here might or in the general forum. What we could see happening is that Bell might have even  more of the effect he had last year for the first month, except it might go on for several more weeks.  What happens with all this could be a blueprint for many players in the future.

If bell gets his deal and plays really good, then I would expect players to sit out that franchise tag and it could force the next CBA to be different as a result.   There is a lot tied to all this, because it could take some power away from the owners and if bell  accomplishes that, it's a moral victory because the players obviously don't like the tag .  If bell has an MVP type season, you can count on the league not allowing that to happen that's for sure. They would give the award to a defender before letting bell win. 

If bell doesn't get the deal he wants, and is slow and often soft tissue injured, it would be a cautionary tale for those considering following that road.  

There have been talk about how bell will be treated like kap and reid and the owners will collude and it will work against bell.  We will have to wait and see because he is an exceptional RB and if he gets a raw deal, then it sets the bad example that's for sure.  He has the suspensions and injuries that can play a part but we will see . 

I expect a few teams to ignore all the BS and history and sign bell for what he wants.  If he wants the $ it will be there (probably with a bad team like he jets) but ifs he wants to win,. I could see him signing with he colts who are rebounding and actually have got decent OL play and keep Luck off IR for a change.

[Dcash4]

On 11/17/2018 at 10:05 PM, wwhickok said:

Idk if anyone has done the research but I wonder how many RBs have had a year+ off and come back to effective the next season. Bell hasnt had a meaningful game since last season.

Only one I know off the top of my head is Marshawn, and he was okay-ish coming back. Probably not the best comparison by what they both do best and parts of their careers, though. Only others I can think of that had a year in between snaps were due to injuries, and those are obviously different circumstances. 

[warfelg]

It's been reported that these are Bell's requirements this offseason:

$17+ mil AAV

$45+ mil in guarantees

$25+ mil in signing bonus

Good luck with that lol.

[Dcash4]

59 minutes ago, warfelg said:

It's been reported that these are Bell's requirements this offseason:

$17+ mil AAV

$45+ mil in guarantees

$25+ mil in signing bonus

Good luck with that lol.

.....these things can’t be true, man. I can’t believe one person can be this stupid. He literally makes it impossible to even want to root for him. He isn’t going to have a fun end to his NFL career. 

[AFF]

Only person dumb enough to give him that contract would be Jon Gruden...

[CKSteeler]

A lot can change, but as of right now it's going to the Jets.

[3rivers]

Colts have the cap space, but does Reich appear to be the coach to tell his GM to sign bell?  Jets also have the cap space, and the NY circus could have a good time with this if it doesn't go as planned.

[warfelg]

So, I did this breakdown elsewhere on what he's asking for, and I think his market should quickly end up in the range I'm predicting based on this:

Quote

So I'm going to admit someone far smarter than me put this together originally, but they broke down Bell's production, his salary demands, and where it lies.

So lets agree on pure running wise he's a top 5 RB, so if you average the top 5 RB salaries you come up with $10mil.

Him and his agent also say he wants to be paid as an WR2 on top of the salary of a top 5 RB, and average together the salaries of WR2's in the NFL and you get $5.5mil. 

So put them together and you get $15.5 million AAV. So already Bell is asking for more than just those two positions put together.

But then we should break down Bell's production. He is producing as a top 5 RB in running, so that part of the salary checks out properly and there' not much of a discussion there.

But where this salary demand and where their assessment of his value breaks down is saying he also produces as a WR2. Yes, on the Steelers he may have had the second most catches and yards. But what this writer said is Bell and his agent didn't bother to look at what Bell did on top of the average or top RBs.

So first, here's what Bell does in an average year:
80 Targets, 62 catches, 532 yards, 1.4 TDs
Per game played thats:
6.4 Targets, 5 catches, 42.9 yards, 0.12 TD's

So this is based on the 48th most productive WR in the NFL would put up (over the span Bell has been playing):
85 targets, 60 catches, 730 yards, 4 TDs

Ok so pure numbers wise in pure targets and catches he's close, but he is far behind in yards per target and yards per catch. Those per target and per catch numbers are actually much closer to the production of a slot WR.

BUT WAIT!

Isn't part of a RB's job to be a pass catcher? So to determine his value on top of what a RB produces to test this value, we should take out what the average RB produces in the passing game to see what Bell adds on top of the average RB.

The average RB produces in the passing game:
50 targets, 36 receptions, 310 yards, 1 TD

Ok, so now we got to take out what Bell gives you ON TOP of that average RB production at the position:
30 Targets, 26 catches, 112 yards, 0.4 TDs

Uh oh. This argument of him bringing the value of a WR2 over what RB's bring falls apart some there. That's not WR2 numbers. That's WR5 numbers. WRs with those numbers are on late round rookie contracts. Making $1mil or less. 

Again this is where the hole in what Bell is asking for falls apart some. His and his agents whole standpoint is built around this idea that Bell gives you the production of a Top RB and an average WR2. Break down these numbers and you see.....that just isn't true.

And let's take another look at something. I broke down what Bell does on a per game basis:
6.4 Targets, 5 catches, 42.9 yards, 0.12 TD's

Well what is that over the production of his replacement to the level that he should get paid that much more? Lets take a look at the production without him available:
24 games, 127 targets, 96 catches, 875 yards, 3 TD

Per game that is:
5.3 targets, 4 catches, 36.4 yards, 0.13 TDs

So literally over the RB production without Bell in the game you are missing 1 target, 1 catch, 6.5 yards in a game.

So in the end I really do think that you need to ask yourself if that production over the average RB as a pass catcher is really worth the value of a WR2. I think the answer there is easily no.

Heck, is he really even worth more than David Johnson and Todd Gurley? Comparing what they've done in per game in their best years in the NFL:

Name	Att/game	Yds/game	Yds/Att	TD/Game	Rec/Game	RecYds/Game	RecYds/Rec	TD/Game
Bell	21.6	94.8	4.4	0.6	5.9	47.1	7.9	0.1
Gurley	18.8	90.3	4.8	1.0	4.1	47.3	11.5	0.4
Johnson	17.9	74.2	4.2	0.9	5.1	55.6	11.0	0.2

So overall production Bell slots sorta right between them would you agree? So if he fits between them in their most productive seasons, shouldn't he be between their AAV salaries, topping at $14,375,000 and $13,000,000. GTD at signing cap of $24.7 Million and $21.9 Million. Total GTD of $31mil and $45mil.

What did he turn down from the Steelers?
$14mil per season (right between Gurley and Johnson, which fits based on production)
$18mil GTD at signing (Low based on those two, but Bell has missed injury and suspensions time)
$33 mil GTD overall (Closer to Johnson than Gurley, but again there are reasons)

In the end does this all add up to Bell being able to rightfully asking for what he wants?
Over $17mil a season
Over $25mil GTD at signing
Over $45mil GTD overall

I Think all these numbers speak for themselves and say no.

 

 

[Ward4HOF]

On 11/15/2018 at 1:12 PM, warfelg said:

Proof Bucky Brooks is an idiot:

When are people going to learn this locker room knows how to play the press. 

They know...they just don't care, because it fits their narrative:  The Steeler organization is full of jerks--from top to bottom.  So anytime an opportunity presents itself to take a cheap shot, or a 'hot take' against the Steelers--they jump on it.  If there's a former player who is at odds with the Steelers--90% of the media sides with the player; the other 10% take up the side of the Steelers, but I am convinced it's solely for their media ratings--they don't truly believe what they are saying, but they know they have to add another side of the debate, otherwise, there woudn't be anything exciting to the story, right?

I'm sure an non-Steeler fan who reads what I just wrote is saying "Oh, please, the Steelers get heaped praise upon all the time..."  or "you're just delusional, dude..."

Well, the ONLY reason the media says anything positive about the Steelers...well, anyone not named Bill Cowher or Hines Ward or Jerome Bettis....is because they know the Steelers have a huge following, and if they don't cater, at least somewhat, to Steelers fans, well, then said fans will not watch their network.  But it's obvious that ANYTHING negative that comes out of that locker room/Front Office, the Media jumps on it like 'white on rice'--Bucky Brooks, Max Kellerman (what a doosh [spelled incorrectly, purposefully, BTW]), and everyone's favorite, Rich Eisen...then don't get me started on the former, now defunct, Warren 'Crap'. The lost goes on and on...

 

So, to your point, yeah, the players do this because they are baiting the media into looking like idiots...I think it's hilarious, actually.

[Ward4HOF]

On 11/15/2018 at 1:37 PM, warfelg said:

Yup. Carlos Dunlap (writer not player) was the one to point it out. 

Let me ask the obvious question--has no one confronted him on this point, via Twitter?

I'm not Twitter, or a Facelooker, or an Insta-Grammar, but what might be best is for several different people to make this point across all the different media sources--it would likely instantly shut him up, because most responses from the public would be about them sharing an agent--it would TOTALLY change the narrative of his intended purpose.  He can make comments all he wants, but if everytime, someone points out that he shares an agent with said Bell, then after awhile, he'll go away, because it will be a lost cause.  Maybe I'm wrong, but If I kept trying to make a point, and the response I received was that my opinion was invalid due this relationship, I would ust give-up, because my credibility would take a hit--EVERY TIME someone made this about the shared agent.

 

[warfelg]

Just now, Ward4HOF said:

Let me ask the obvious question--has no one confronted him on this point, via Twitter?

I'm not Twitter, or a Facelooker, or an Insta-Grammar, but what might be best is for several different people to make this point across all the different media sources--it would likely instantly shut him up, because most responses from the public would be about them sharing an agent--it would TOTALLY change the narrative of his intended purpose.  He can make comments all he wants, but if everytime, someone points out that he shares an agent with said Bell, then after awhile, he'll go away, because it will be a lost cause.  Maybe I'm wrong, but If I kept trying to make a point, and the response I received was that my opinion was invalid due this relationship, I would ust give-up, because my credibility would take a hit--EVERY TIME someone made this about the shared agent.

 

Dunlap was the one that shut down they were stealing stuff.  He tweeted right at all the guys saying stuff and they ignored him because the other was a good story.  Dunlap is the one guy that gets the players in the lockerroom play the media and is usually in on the joke.

Dunlap usually gets 'ignored' because he's the 'outsider' from the organization beat writer stand point.  His in is with the players.  He pointed it out, a few people commented, but Buckey said he would still be saying all of this because the players and organization 'don't act in good taste' and people defended Bucky because 'he was a player and knows lockerrooms'.

 

The funny one was James Jones mocked Buckey over his continued defense of Bell, and on the taking stuff he said "If I reach out to you, and you aren't man enough to talk back; then your stuff is open for business."

[3rivers]

On 2018-11-22 at 10:13 AM, warfelg said:

Dunlap was the one that shut down they were stealing stuff.  He tweeted right at all the guys saying stuff and they ignored him because the other was a good story.  Dunlap is the one guy that gets the players in the lockerroom play the media and is usually in on the joke.

Dunlap usually gets 'ignored' because he's the 'outsider' from the organization beat writer stand point.  His in is with the players.  He pointed it out, a few people commented, but Buckey said he would still be saying all of this because the players and organization 'don't act in good taste' and people defended Bucky because 'he was a player and knows lockerrooms'.

 

The funny one was James Jones mocked Buckey over his continued defense of Bell, and on the taking stuff he said "If I reach out to you, and you aren't man enough to talk back; then your stuff is open for business."

James Jones said the panthers were going win by a lot vs the steelers, but how did that work for him  It's at the point now that there are only a few in the media that I'll listen to.