the lone star Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 Who Would You Rather Have Going Forward: Jamal Murray or Lonzo Ball? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the lone star Posted August 13, 2018 Author Share Posted August 13, 2018 I figured I would get this comp going too since Lonzo also struggled his rookie year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 I'm really high on Lonzo as an all around player but as of now with the shooting and injury issues it's probably pretty easily Jamal based on what we've seen. Need more time to evaluate Lonzo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-ALL-DAY Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 I like this comparison. Murray to me has All Star potential, but it all depends on how much Ball improves his jump shot and if he can ever shoot off the bounce with his current form. Ball is already an borderline elite defender at the PG position and has the potential to be the best defender at that spot while being an elite rebounder and ball mover which helps others around him. For now give me Murray, but that is dependent on how good of a shooter Ball becomes. If he is able to shoot close to 37-38% from down town? I'd probably take him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 1 hour ago, champ11 said: I'm really high on Lonzo as an all around player but as of now with the shooting and injury issues it's probably pretty easily Jamal based on what we've seen. Need more time to evaluate Lonzo I'd argue the other way. Unless you're convinced that Lonzo will continue to shoot as poorly as he did last year, it's Lonzo by a country mile. He's a better passer, rebounder, defenders, etc. than Murray. Murray is the better shooter/scorer at this point, but that's to be expected. I anticipate that after the sophomore jump, we're going to have a different look at this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 20 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I'd argue the other way. Unless you're convinced that Lonzo will continue to shoot as poorly as he did last year, it's Lonzo by a country mile. He's a better passer, rebounder, defenders, etc. than Murray. Murray is the better shooter/scorer at this point, but that's to be expected. I anticipate that after the sophomore jump, we're going to have a different look at this. Not being able to shoot/finish (low-key his percentage at the rim might be more troubling than his jump shooting) puts a lower ceiling on Lonzo's value even though he is easily the better passer/rebounder/defender right now. It really depends on how his shot develops. Because Murray is in a different stratosphere as a shooter and scorer right now. We're both obviously biased on this one..I think both have a lot of room to grow. I'd say if you're trying to bet on ceiling right now...Murray is the safer bet....but they could both drastically improve. I think this year is the year that I need to see a jump from Murray. He's going to be a very solid player in the NBA for a long time with his shooting and finishing, but I want to see his 1v1 scoring and passing (esp in the PnR to Jokic) make improvements this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 4 minutes ago, champ11 said: Not being able to shoot/finish (low-key his percentage at the rim might be more troubling than his jump shooting) puts a way lower ceiling on Lonzo's value even though he is easily the better passer/rebounder/defender right now. It really depends on how his shot develops. Because Murray is in a different stratosphere as a shooter and scorer right now. We're both obviously biased on this one..I think both have a lot of room to grow. I'd say if you're trying to bet on ceiling right now...Murray is the safer bet....but they could both drastically improve. I think this year is the year that I need to see a jump from Murray. He's going to be a very solid player in the NBA for a long time with his shooting and finishing, but I want to see his 1v1 scoring and passing (esp in the PnR to Jokic) make improvements this year. The problem is when that shot isn't falling, how much do they really impact the game? And that's where I think Jamal Murray struggles. When his shot isn't falling, he's not a great rebounder, he doesn't create offense for others at a really high rate, and he's not a great defender. That's not to say he's bad player, it's just his impact in a game if his shot isn't falling is limited. That's why even on a "bad" shooting night for Lonzo, he's at worse coming out to an average player. And it's not like we haven't had players in the league who couldn't/didn't shoot that have a positive impact. I don't think anyone disagrees that Murray is the better shooter/scorer, but in terms of impact Lonzo impacts the game far more than Murray. I just don't see this budding star in Murray, I see someone whose going to be really good but won't make that big jump. Maybe I'm wrong, but I expect to see that big jump between the first two seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 10 minutes ago, CWood21 said: The problem is when that shot isn't falling, how much do they really impact the game? And that's where I think Jamal Murray struggles. When his shot isn't falling, he's not a great rebounder, he doesn't create offense for others at a really high rate, and he's not a great defender. That's not to say he's bad player, it's just his impact in a game if his shot isn't falling is limited. That's why even on a "bad" shooting night for Lonzo, he's at worse coming out to an average player. And it's not like we haven't had players in the league who couldn't/didn't shoot that have a positive impact. I don't think anyone disagrees that Murray is the better shooter/scorer, but in terms of impact Lonzo impacts the game far more than Murray. I just don't see this budding star in Murray, I see someone whose going to be really good but won't make that big jump. Maybe I'm wrong, but I expect to see that big jump between the first two seasons. There definitely needs to be improvement for Murray in those areas....and it projects fairly well based on his skill set and age, IMO. Last year was his first year at PG and he played hurt his rookie year and rehabbed last summer. I'm expecting his breakout jump to be this year, personally. And I mean you just don't expect many nights for his shot not to fall moving forward. These are random qualifiers so take it for what you will but kind of nails how impressive he is for his age: there are 19 guards to average over 15ppg ages 21 and under in NBA history and Jamal had the highest true shooting percentage from a single season out of that group. How good his season was last year is really slept on because it's Denver. Your argument depends on how good each guy gets honestly....and on the team really. Hard to say at this point. You probably take the efficient 20+ PPG scorer that is average defensively over the great defender that can't score. You'd definitely take Murray's season last year over Lonzo's and I'd expect the same to be true this year. But maybe Lonzo proves himself to be such a nice playmaking offensive piece that we don't even have to worry about the shooting? And becomes a lockdown defender? It's possible, but we'll see. I just need to see more. He's such a unique player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 15 minutes ago, champ11 said: There definitely needs to be improvement for Murray in those areas....and it projects fairly well based on his skill set and age, IMO. Last year was his first year at PG and he played hurt his rookie year and rehabbed last summer. I'm expecting his breakout jump to be this year, personally. And I mean you just don't expect many nights for his shot not to fall moving forward. These are random qualifiers so take it for what you will but kind of nails how impressive he is for his age: there are 19 guards to average over 15ppg ages 21 and under in NBA history and Jamal had the highest true shooting percentage from a single season out of that group. How good his season was last year is really slept on because it's Denver. Your argument depends on how good each guy gets honestly....and on the team really. Hard to say at this point. You probably take the efficient 20+ PPG scorer that is average defensively over the great defender that can't score. You'd definitely take Murray's season last year over Lonzo's and I'd expect the same to be true this year. But maybe Lonzo proves himself to be such a nice playmaking offensive piece that we don't even have to worry about the shooting? And becomes a lockdown defender? It's possible, but we'll see. I just need to see more. He's such a unique player I'll be honestly, historically speaking I don't remember a whole lot of players who see most of their improvements between Year 2 and Year 3. IIRC, most of that improvements comes between the first two seasons. We saw the improvement in the shooting percentages this past season, but the TRB%, AST%, STL%, etc. all stayed the same, and his USG% stayed the same. So he's impacting the game in the same way except his shooting percentages went up, which is to be expected. College players are used to playing twice a week at most, and we're talking about ~30 games in a college season. The NBA you're playing at minimum 3-4 times a week, and talking about an 82 game schedule. If that development isn't happening between the first two seasons, I don't anticipate the switch will suddenly turn on in Year 3. I'll use Brandon Ingram as a comparison since they're in a similar boat. We saw Ingram's TRB%, AST%, etc. all improve while taking on a bigger role. To me, that indicates that he's impacting the game more while showing improvements. That's why I'm skeptical that Murray has this untapped potential that you do. He had the same usage rate and his efficiency didn't really improve outside of his shooting. LIS, nobody is doubting Murray's ability to shoot/score. I just don't know how much he impacts the game outside of that. As I've mentioned, he doesn't rebound well, isn't a great passer, and isn't a strong defender. He isn't much different than Ben Gordon in terms of impact for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I'll be honestly, historically speaking I don't remember a whole lot of players who see most of their improvements between Year 2 and Year 3. IIRC, most of that improvements comes between the first two seasons. We saw the improvement in the shooting percentages this past season, but the TRB%, AST%, STL%, etc. all stayed the same, and his USG% stayed the same. So he's impacting the game in the same way except his shooting percentages went up, which is to be expected. College players are used to playing twice a week at most, and we're talking about ~30 games in a college season. The NBA you're playing at minimum 3-4 times a week, and talking about an 82 game schedule. If that development isn't happening between the first two seasons, I don't anticipate the switch will suddenly turn on in Year 3. I'll use Brandon Ingram as a comparison since they're in a similar boat. We saw Ingram's TRB%, AST%, etc. all improve while taking on a bigger role. To me, that indicates that he's impacting the game more while showing improvements. That's why I'm skeptical that Murray has this untapped potential that you do. He had the same usage rate and his efficiency didn't really improve outside of his shooting. LIS, nobody is doubting Murray's ability to shoot/score. I just don't know how much he impacts the game outside of that. As I've mentioned, he doesn't rebound well, isn't a great passer, and isn't a strong defender. He isn't much different than Ben Gordon in terms of impact for me. I mentioned why I think Murray will have more of a breakout this year. Different position in his second year than in his first year and didn't get a full healthy off-season last year to improve. I'm not worried about his usage percentage staying constant. That's what happens when you develop on a good team that's competing for something. I think it'll go up for him this year, though. I also really don't care about his rebounding. He's fine there for what he needs to do. I expect improvements passing wise (his ast% actually did go up last season) and defensively. If he doesn't get better there in his career...as a super high work ethic guy that just turned 21....yeah Ben Gordon sounds very fair. I expect improvements which is completely reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 33 minutes ago, champ11 said: I mentioned why I think Murray will have more of a breakout this year. Different position in his second year than in his first year and didn't get a full healthy off-season last year to improve. I'm not worried about his usage percentage staying constant. That's what happens when you develop on a good team that's competing for something. I think it'll go up for him this year, though. I also really don't care about his rebounding. He's fine there for what he needs to do. I expect improvements passing wise (his ast% actually did go up last season) and defensively. If he doesn't get better there in his career...as a super high work ethic guy that just turned 21....yeah Ben Gordon sounds very fair. I expect improvements which is completely reasonable. We're going to have agree to disagree about the usage rate. I anticipate a players' usage rate to go up the longer they're in the league, and I definitely expect a jump from rookie to sophomore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, CWood21 said: We're going to have agree to disagree about the usage rate. I anticipate a players' usage rate to go up the longer they're in the league, and I definitely expect a jump from rookie to sophomore. I'm going to continue using context when looking at stats for a player Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CWood21 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 2 minutes ago, champ11 said: I'm going to continue using context when looking at stats for a player I'm not sure where I failed to do that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champ11 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, CWood21 said: I'm not sure where I failed to do that... It seems like you're dinging Murray for having a similar usage percentage his second year to his first year, no? And to me that is looking at that stat, based on an expectation, without using the context that A) He went from the role of being an off ball scorer off the bench as a rookie (where you would expect him to have a higher usage rate next to bench players) to being the starting PG and playing mainly with starters in his 2nd year B) He had the 3rd highest usage rate on the team in 2017-2018....behind Mudiay and Jokic. So the second highest usage rate with the starters. So yeah I don't really know why you picked that part of my post to disagree with but I went along with this really random tangent regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beekay414 Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 BBB all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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