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Trade Deadline Thread - DT To Houston for 4th Rd pick and 7th rd swap

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Does the fact that we got a 4th back for our 2010 investment in DT in the first round and the cowboys got zero for Bryant taken a couple spots behind us make it a no brainer that Denver got the better value of 2010 in the first round or am I being sentimental?

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2 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

Has Brown even played? Thought he got Wally Pipp'd. He was someone I was circling as a possible free agent signing to replace Leary. I don't think Denver should be a big spender but OL is one unit I think is worth short term investment. 

Sorry, should have said - awful in preseason...and got benched, you are correct.   It's hard to really believe he's their 53rd best player on that roster, though.  OL is such a premium position for depth.   If he's really that low, it shows you how truly deep that Rams roster is.  

Either way, though, we should definitely take a look.   Problem is at the 10 spot, I'd be shocked if no one else put a claim in.  But either way, this is one we burn our priority if we can.

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1 hour ago, thebestever6 said:

Does the fact that we got a 4th back for our 2010 investment in DT in the first round and the cowboys got zero for Bryant taken a couple spots behind us make it a no brainer that Denver got the better value of 2010 in the first round or am I being sentimental?

I think the fact we won a SB with DT already made that a no-brainer.  This just closes the ledger.  To be fair, though, we only got a 4th because HOU got desperate - remember, the best offer we got was a 6th - so pretty trivial up until Fuller tore his ACL.   

Either way, though, I don't think it really matters.   WR's are a big part, but not the core of a team's success.  Still, taking DT in Rd1 in 2010 was one of those winner franchise-changing moves no one should do anything but celebrate.   There is no Tebow playoff magic without him, and we don't establish the winner label for that team in the early Elway GM years without him, that helped attract the key additions that completed the No Fly Zone and generational elite D and SB50 trophy.  

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14 hours ago, MakeDenverGreatAgain said:

I thought Elway got good value when Ray was drafted, but I never saw him as more than a Robert Ayers type, and we all now how well that worked out. It's also my main concern with Bradley Chubb. I don't doubt that he'll be a solid player for this team, but not a player that lives up to his top 5 draft billing. Hopefully I'm wrong, though. 

I think the Chubb comparison to Ayers has merit; not so much the Shane Ray one. Ray is a twitchy pass rusher and a 'Tasmanian Devil' type player i.e high energy. The other two are edge setters that, we were/are hoping will develop into players that can use their strength to affect the pocket on all 3 downs. Ray was about 25lbs lighter than Chubb and Ayers at the combine.

Players of Ray's build struggle to affect the pocket on 1st down because you can't make an outside pass rush move on 1st down; you have to play the run first, thus DE/OLB's of Chubb/Ayers' build can use their strength to shed if it's pass rather than run.

The injuries are a huge concern with Shane Ray, but I actually think someone is going to get a steal with him this Summer if he can just stay healthy. He has shown ability to rush the passer from both the inside and outside on 3rd down and he's a really high effort player.

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10 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

The injuries are a huge concern with Shane Ray, but I actually think someone is going to get a steal with him this Summer if he can just stay healthy. He has shown ability to rush the passer from both the inside and outside on 3rd down and he's a really high effort player.

I can imagine us kicking ourselves a few years from now when Shane Ray has two or three 10-sack seasons with whoever he signs with, when Von starts to show signs of age, and Chubb has settled into being a solid yet unspectacular EDGE guy.  Ray is young, he's going to be relatively inexpensive, and he's always had a chip on his shoulder.

Ray is going to be a steal and I think we'll regret holding the door open for him to leave. Especially if we lose Shaq this offseason as well. 

Edited by bMiller031

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6 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

I can imagine us kicking ourselves a few years from now when Shane Ray has two or three 10-sack seasons with whoever he signs with, when Von starts to show signs of age, and Chubb has settled into being a solid yet unspectacular EDGE guy.  Ray is young, he's going to be relatively inexpensive, and he's always had a chip on his shoulder.

Ray is going to be a steal and I think we'll regret holding the door open for him to leave. Especially if we lose Shaq this offseason as well. 

That's a double-whammy, though.  If he's young and inexpensive, we don't get much of a comp pick back.   That's why as much as I agree with the idea that Ray's not a lost cause overall, the play was to trade him yesterday, if we didn't exercise the 5th year option.   Had we exercised the 5th year option, we could at least trade him in the offseason - and the 5th year option is not guaranteed, unless he can't pass a physical at start of year (now, that has risk - it's what happened to Menelik Watson).  I actually think having the 5th year option would have made him more sellable to a team that was looking to buy.   But with no trade done, and no 5th year option, well, we're going to watch him walk away,  and likely get a meh comp pick back if he doesn't hit even moderately big $.   

If the Rams had a choice between Ray & Dante Fowler with an extra year of potential control, we might have been winners in the sweepstakes yesterday.  With Ray's ankle keeping him out the last 2 games, and Fowler and he both serving as pure rentals, well, not hard to see why LAR chose Fowler.   Sucks for us, though.   We aren't sniffing even a 4th & 6th type return (JAX did well to get a 3rd and 5th for Fowler, given he was done at the end of season, and hitting FA).

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1 minute ago, Broncofan said:

That's a double-whammy, though.  If he's young and inexpensive, we don't get much of a comp pick back.   That's why as much as I agree with the idea that Ray's not a lost cause overall, the play was to trade him yesterday, if we didn't exercise the 5th year option.   Had we exercised the 5th year option, we could at least trade him in the offseason - and the 5th year option is not guaranteed, unless he can't pass a physical at start of year (now, that has risk - it's what happened to Menelik Watson).  I actually think having the 5th year option would have made him more sellable to a team that was looking to buy.   But with no trade done, and no 5th year option, well, we're going to watch him walk away,  and likely get a meh comp pick back if he doesn't hit even moderately big $.   

Is it a foregone conclusion that both Ray and Barrett are gone this offseason?

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17 minutes ago, bMiller031 said:

Is it a foregone conclusion that both Ray and Barrett are gone this offseason?

It's always possible that Barrett stays, if his market is soft.  I don't see Ray staying - former 1st round picks, who even have 1 10-sack season on their resumé, they get interest.  Not enough to break the bank, but well more than we can likely afford.   Our cap situation got a lot healthier, and will when we cut bait with Leary (8.5M saved) and hopefully Marshall at 5M (saves more than Davis, I'd prefer Davis TBH, but $ is $).   The issue is that Harris & Paradis likely eat most if not all of that up, and more.   

Functionally, we have about 45M in effective cap space (38M in 2019 & 7M rollover with DT trade).     That's about 20th, when you add in rollover for other teams.   Realistically, we're not going to devote 1/5th of our remaining cap space to another EDGE with Von/Chubb in the mix - and 8M is "bargain basement" for young EDGE/DE's.    Trent Murphy got 3 years, 21M.   Vinny Curry got 3 yrs, 21M.  Wilkerson got 8M (and a ton more baggage).   

When you look at the 2019 FA market, Clowney, Frank Clark and Demarcus Lawrence, David Irving and Ezekial Ansah all in the market (a few that no doubt get re-signed), it's hard to see them get huge money to get a nice comp pick.  But teams are always looking for EDGE / pass rush, so it's hard to see them go bargain basement, either.  And frankly, another team gets to sell that they get to start - we can't ever give them that promise. 

For a young EDGE, to get good money AND to start - so they can get more $ on the next contract - it's hard to see Ray/Barrett stay, TBH.   Add in that we are no longer contenders, well, nothing's a lock, but it's really hard to pencil either as anything but goners in the offseason.

Edited by Broncofan

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I think Shaq could come back, based on a lot of what @Broncofan eluded to. He doesn't have the 'name' because of his draft status, and he hasn't ever sniffed double digit sacks. I had no idea that the UFA market had so many pass rushers; that is great news for us. I expect Elway to let him test the market, so I guess we will find out his market value. Hopefully the fact that Barrett went to school in Colorado, has 3 young kids, will help sway him to stay as I think he's a really underrated football player.

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2 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

I think Shaq could come back, based on a lot of what @Broncofan eluded to. He doesn't have the 'name' because of his draft status, and he hasn't ever sniffed double digit sacks. I had no idea that the UFA market had so many pass rushers; that is great news for us. I expect Elway to let him test the market, so I guess we will find out his market value. Hopefully the fact that Barrett went to school in Colorado, has 3 young kids, will help sway him to stay as I think he's a really underrated football player.

The only issue is that some of those pass rushers will get retained by their own teams - DAL is certainly not going to let both Lawrence and Irving walk, as an example.  I doubt SEA lets Clark walk, too.   But if there's a guy who could find a much softer market, it's Barrett.  Still, young EDGE's are hard to come by, so I still think it's more like 70-30 he's gone - Ray's pretty much a goner IMO.   Ray's going to absolutely believe he can start and succeed somewhere else.    And someone will offer him more $ than we will want to offer.   When we look at our roster construction, EDGE will not be seen as a FA priority.   

If I'm Elway, I go to the MO from the past and I offer contracts to 3 guys - Paradis, Harris & Barrett, the last 2 being more team-friendly, given they are part-time players (but Harris, I wouldn't get too cute, he's been outstanding with his play).  No guarantee anyone will take it, but it's also from his playbook to start talking now, and see who will trade off security vs. the lure of UFA.

The good news is that the draft has a lot of interesting EDGE/DE guys even beyond the elite, I have no doubt Elway should go there, more likely with Rd 3-5 pick, if it's a project.    Obviously, I want to see the Combine, because unlike a lot of positions, EDGE's skill set is very particular - and tape, while really good to see motor/technique/bend, it masks if competition is the real factor in a guy's success (or lack thereof, if he's on a bad team).    This is definitely a draft where the value lies in  beefing up the front 7 and OL, and waiting on skill positions later.

Edited by Broncofan

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On 10/30/2018 at 8:29 PM, thebestever6 said:

Does the fact that we got a 4th back for our 2010 investment in DT in the first round and the cowboys got zero for Bryant taken a couple spots behind us make it a no brainer that Denver got the better value of 2010 in the first round or am I being sentimental?

No. Its extremely true and I highly recommend you take a second and read this. All Bronco fans should.

http://www.bsndenver.com/an-ode-to-the-most-under-appreciated-bronco-of-all-time/

 

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