GM Robinson- Good or Bad compared to the league. Comprehensive discussion on GM expectations

[KingTitan]

All since 2016-

• Arizona: No Pro-Bowlers or All-Pro 
• Atlanta:  Deion Jones 1x Pro Bowl, Keanu Neal 1x Pro Bowl
• Baltimore: No Pro Bowlers or All-Pro
• Buffalo:  No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Carolina: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Chicago: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Cincinnati: No Pro-Bowlers or All Pro
• Cleveland: No Pro-Bowlers or All Pro
• Dallas: Ezekiel Elliot 1x Pro Bowler and 1x All-Pro. Dak Prescott- Rookie of Year, All Pro, and Pro Bowler
• Denver: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Detroit: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Green Bay: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Houston: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Indianapolis: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Jacksonville: Jalen Ramsey 1x All-Pro, 1x Pro Bowl, Yannick Ngakoue 1x Pro Bowl
• Kansas City: Tyreek Hill 1x All Pro, 2x Pro Bowl. Kareem Hunt 1x Pro Bowl
• Los Angles Chargers: Joey Bosa 1x Pro Bowler, Defensive Rookie of Year. 
• Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff 1x Pro Bowler
• Miami: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Minnesota: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• New England: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• New Orleans: Michael Thomas 1x Pro Bowl,  Marshon Lattimore 1x Pro Bowl, Alvin Kamara 1x Pro Bowl, 1x All- Pro, Offensive Rookie of Year
• New York Giants: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• New York Jets: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Oakland Raiders: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Philadelphia: Carson Wentz 1x Pro Bowler, 1x All Pro
• Pittsburgh: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• San Francisco: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Seattle: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Tampa Bay: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro
• Tennessee: Jack Conklin 1x All-Pro, Kevin Byard, 1x All-Pro, 1x Pro Bowler
• Washington: No Pro Bowlers or All Pro

So looking at that information, Robinson has drafted "better" than over half the league. Each team with at least 2 pro-bowlers drafted in the last two seasons have made the playoffs. 

We judge GMs by their draft picks. With the small sample we have of Robinson he is one of the best drafting GMs in the league. 
Now if we look at his Free Agent signings:

Bryden Trawick is the only player brought in that has made the Pro Bowl (Special Teams) 
While trying to find information, I looked at the free agent signings and pro bowls and all pro status is a tough way to judge success. Not many of these signings ended up in that type of success. 

What is the level of success for a free agent signing?
 

Would Robinson be viewed as more successful in FA if he simply tried to address a position?
Looking at WR targets many of us liked so far this season:
John Brown:  31 rec. 586 4 TDs (1 year $5 Million deal)
Paul Richardson: 18 rec 246 yards 2 TDs (5 yr $40 Million Deal)
Taylor Gabriel: 34 rec. 381 yards 2 TDs (4 yr $26 Million Deal)
Allen Robinson: 25 rec 285 yards 2 TDs (3yr $42 Million Deal)

John Brown is the obvious guy we should have went after, based on his deal and the numbers he has put up. The other players could be debated as "disappointments" so far.

So looking at the draft comparison in the same window and thinking about free agency, how do you feel Robinson has been as a GM?

Some questions I'd like to see others answer:
What constitutes a successful free agent signing?
What are your expectations for draft picks?
 

Lets discuss... Also lets keep in mind other GMs and try to look objectively at our GM compared to how the league does. 
 

 

[TitanSS]

I think he's been fine. Mariota is struggling so the WRs are struggling and people are blaming the GM. If we sign Brown he probably has 20 receptions on this team at this point and people are calling it a bust. QB play is a large part of WR success and we've been up and down this season. Getting someone to push Taylor down to #4 would absolutely be helpful, but i don't think it's the real issue.

Biggest issue is the running game. If we so much as add Delanie Walker back into our offense we're looking a lot better in the passing game.

I think it's important to consider where the team was three seasons ago.

I don't think he has been bad at free agents/existing NFL players either. Logan Ryan is a massive success. Murray was a success before his injuries that he never seemed to come back from. Vaccaro looks great. The trades for Dennis Kelly and Correa look like they favor us. Ben Jones and Josh Kline were decent stop gaps for a short while. Rishard Matthews was good when he was here. Dion Lewis is a really good player. Butler has been the exception, but was really good last week.

These are the guys suiting up Monday that don't need to be replaced next off-season that were on the team before Robinson: Mariota, Lewan, Casey, Woodyard, Jones. That's it, and 3/5 have missed at least a full game due to injury.

He's not flawless, but compared to the rest of the league he's been pretty good. Fixing the run game and finding Walker's replacement will be big this off-season.

[TitanLegend]

Robinson has been one of the 10 or so best GMs in the league as it relates to team building. Drafting is such a crap shoot for so many teams, even with guys who are considered brilliant when it comes to football, and he's managed to be pretty successful with that. I like the quote from Sean Payton from sometime last year after he got a question about finding Alvin Kamara so late in the draft, and his response was something along the lines of "well if we thought he was gonna be this good we'd have drafted him in the first". It goes to show how often luck can kinda factor in to drafting. Robinson took a roster that had won a combined 5 games in the previous two years combined, and then won 18 with it in the next two years.

I think he's proven he's pretty solid at building a roster.

What question will have to be answered is his hiring ability. After the first 4 weeks we all thought he was a genius for hiring this staff. LaFleur was pulling so many things out of the hat just to keep our MASH unit of an offense going, the defense was playing much better, and everything looked golden. While the defense has remained good, the offense has fallen off a cliff and a lot of the creativity we saw to start the season has disappeared.

I find it hard to believe LaFleur has just forgotten how to call a game(and I find myself wondering at times how much Vrabel gives input on offensive calls. He said he wanted to pass on the 2pt play, and maybe LaFleur wanted to as well, but him telling LaFleur that potentially impacted the play call). And in fairness to him 2 weeks ago the offensive play calling looked better against LAC, even with the decision to go empty backfield on the 2pt play, so maybe over the bye they'll have figured something out.

As well as the defense has played, I still have my worries about Vrabel. But I love the aggressiveness and I'm holding out hope that they've figured something out on offense. We'll see how it goes.

[ragevsuall17]

He picked a great situation to go into... GM wise... He had the #1 overall pick and a potential franchise qb in place (going into his 2nd year). 

He turned that 1 pick into 6 total picks, al in the 3rd. Great trade, but ha was afforded that simply by being put into the situation he was put into. 

Those 6 picks turned into 7 picks... 

Conklin - undoubtedly, the best pick at this point 

Austin Johnson - incomplete, hasn't developed into a starter 

Derrick Henry - struggling after looking for at the end of year 2

Leshaun Sims - good depth

Kalan Reed - gone 

Corey Davis - insane potential, but hasn't lived up to it consistently

Jonnu Smith - at this point, doesn't appear to do anything right 

So that trade ended up turning into a great starter, a young receiver with potential, and some depth. 

Not exactly the greatest haul considering the sheer amount of quality picks we had to play with. 

[ragevsuall17]

The rest of the picks that year were:

Kevin Dodd - bust

Kevin Byard - good, solid starter 

Tajae Shape - depth 

Sebastian Tretola - gone 

Aaron Wallace - gone 

So the 2016 draft total landed 2 solid starters... can't scoff at their all pro accolades, but neither is playing at that level currently... A few depth players... Johnson, Henry, Sims, and Sharpe... And 4 players no longer on the roster. 

Judging a draft 3 years later is hard enough, judging one less than 2 years later is almost impossible. Our of the 2017 draft, Adoree looks good, Davis has potential... Brown's looking good... And that's it... 3 are no longer on the roster... And Taylor, Smith, and Levin have looked way over their head when given playing time. 

And the 2018 draft... Maybe we got on 3 guys... But for a guy who values draft picks, ending up with 3 drafted rookies on the roster seems like a head scratcher... 

[ragevsuall17]

Free agent signings include :

2016 

Good - Ben Jones, Rishard Matthews, (I'll include Murray here as a trade... He was excellent for 1 year, but was done after that one year) 

Eh - Al Woods (resign) , Sean Spence

Bad - Andre Johnson, Byron Bell(r), Rashad Johnson, Matt Cassell, Valentino Blake 

 

2017

Good - Logan Ryan (looking like his best signing so far) 

Eh - Johnathan Cyprian, Brynden Trawick, Karl Klug (r), Sylvester Williams, Eric Decker, Philip Supernaw, Nate Palmer, Brian Schwenke

Bad - Eric Weems, Tim Lelito, Brandon Weeden

(I think I might have been extremely generous with that 2017 fa class) 

[deeluxx3]

Damn @ragevsuall17 have a snickers, you’re too real when you’re hungry!!

[dtait93]

Idk how you can call him anything other than good after back to back winning seasons, a playoff appearance, and a playoff victory considering we’ve been basement dwellers for the last decade.

[ragevsuall17]

3 hours ago, dtait93 said:

Idk how you can call him anything other than good after back to back winning seasons, a playoff appearance, and a playoff victory considering we’ve been basement dwellers for the last decade.

It's like the whole VY only wins argument. 

I'm not saying JRob is bad... but he's not the golden child he was heralded as after 1 offseason.

In 2.5 years, that 2016 draft has yielded 2 unquestionable starters, 4 depth players, and 4 players no longer on the roster...

The 2017 draft is too early to grade... but we have 2 potential good starters ... a 3rd who's flashing potential, and if nothing else could be an effective sub package player... and at this point, not much else.

The 2018 draft, we pretty much have to hit on our 2 early picks... because there's not anything else...

The FA signings, as stated above... 3 good signings (being generous, as Rishard is gone for nothing after 2 years)... 8 bad signings... and 10 blah signings (some of those are generously qualified as blah).

Just looking at the track record... it's not the best. 

Most of the core of the team was drafted or acquired pre-JRob... Mariota, Lewan, Walker, Casey, Woodyard, Morgan, Rak...

[ragevsuall17]

3 hours ago, deeluxx3 said:

Damn @ragevsuall17 have a snickers, you’re too real when you’re hungry!!

Haha... just stating the facts.  That batting average isn't the greatest.  A couple of homers... thrown out at 3rd a couple times... and a lot of K's...

But he's had some GWRBI's resulting in wins... so he definitely gets some credit, I guess..

[KingTitan]

1 hour ago, ragevsuall17 said:

It's like the whole VY only wins argument. 

I'm not saying JRob is bad... but he's not the golden child he was heralded as after 1 offseason.

In 2.5 years, that 2016 draft has yielded 2 unquestionable starters, 4 depth players, and 4 players no longer on the roster...

The 2017 draft is too early to grade... but we have 2 potential good starters ... a 3rd who's flashing potential, and if nothing else could be an effective sub package player... and at this point, not much else.

The 2018 draft, we pretty much have to hit on our 2 early picks... because there's not anything else...

The FA signings, as stated above... 3 good signings (being generous, as Rishard is gone for nothing after 2 years)... 8 bad signings... and 10 blah signings (some of those are generously qualified as blah).

Just looking at the track record... it's not the best. 

Most of the core of the team was drafted or acquired pre-JRob... Mariota, Lewan, Walker, Casey, Woodyard, Morgan, Rak...

So by comparison standards who is the best of the GM world and could you give examples to support that?

[ragevsuall17]

1 hour ago, KingTitan said:

So by comparison standards who is the best of the GM world and could you give examples to support that?

Even with knowledge of our team, I had to go back and look at some of the pick up... I'm not gonna do that level of research for other teams. 

But again... There was some talent on the roster (listed that core above for the last couple years)... Came into a good situation with a "franchise" qb coming off a good rookie year and the #1 pick. Traded it for a bounty... Had 19 picks over 2 drafts... 9 of those in the first 3 rounds... He's added 2 players to the core of this team in 2.5 years through the draft and another via FA. 

I know all gms hit and miss... But i'm pretty sure his hit and miss % is not better than average. 

Ultimately it comes down to Mariota. Has he done enough to help him succeed... Have his moves and lack of moves contributed to his current state... 

[KingTitan]

48 minutes ago, ragevsuall17 said:

Even with knowledge of our team, I had to go back and look at some of the pick up... I'm not gonna do that level of research for other teams. 

But again... There was some talent on the roster (listed that core above for the last couple years)... Came into a good situation with a "franchise" qb coming off a good rookie year and the #1 pick. Traded it for a bounty... Had 19 picks over 2 drafts... 9 of those in the first 3 rounds... He's added 2 players to the core of this team in 2.5 years through the draft and another via FA. 

I know all gms hit and miss... But i'm pretty sure his hit and miss % is not better than average. 

Ultimately it comes down to Mariota. Has he done enough to help him succeed... Have his moves and lack of moves contributed to his current state... 

Well I guess that's my purpose of the thread. What is good for a GM? 

Is there a clear level or standard that he should be graded on?

We've seen GM's with picks and they mess up. Partriots routinely cut 2nd round or 3rd round picks after a couple of years. How many great draft picks come to mind when you think of the Patriots in the last 4-5 years? 

In general what do you think is the expectation for a draft class? Have 3 starters come from each? 2 and a backup? All be contributors?

Me creating this thread found that a lot of drafts aren't producing consistently productive players. (Last 3 years). Let me rephrase that. Names that someone not following the team would instantly know.We know Jayon Brown is playing well but would a Cardinals fan know that?

I'm sincerely curious to know from you and others what could a GM not just our GM but a NFL GM do to be considered a successful one. 

[dtait93]

3 hours ago, ragevsuall17 said:

It's like the whole VY only wins argument. 

I'm not saying JRob is bad... but he's not the golden child he was heralded as after 1 offseason.

In 2.5 years, that 2016 draft has yielded 2 unquestionable starters, 4 depth players, and 4 players no longer on the roster...

The 2017 draft is too early to grade... but we have 2 potential good starters ... a 3rd who's flashing potential, and if nothing else could be an effective sub package player... and at this point, not much else.

The 2018 draft, we pretty much have to hit on our 2 early picks... because there's not anything else...

The FA signings, as stated above... 3 good signings (being generous, as Rishard is gone for nothing after 2 years)... 8 bad signings... and 10 blah signings (some of those are generously qualified as blah).

Just looking at the track record... it's not the best. 

Most of the core of the team was drafted or acquired pre-JRob... Mariota, Lewan, Walker, Casey, Woodyard, Morgan, Rak...

I’m not saying he’s a golden child, but how quickly are you people forgetting the likes of Ruston Webster? He’s spoiled us compared to whatever trash he was trying to put out there

[TitanSS]

Added 2 players to the core through the draft and one via FA? When you say to the core of the team do you mean all pros that will be lifetime Titans? There are generally a lot of relatively average players that make up the core of a team for a season.

I'm going to leave out 2018 because we can't judge those guys off 7 games, but these were all positive additions in 2 years.

Jack Conklin, Adoree Jackson, Jayon Brown, Corey Davis, Kevin Byard.

Logan Ryan, Rishard Matthews, Ben Jones, Demarco Murray.

Matthews leaving after two years doesn't mean that he wasn't still a very good signing. Murray was a good move for us at the time and we would still do it today. Davis is a beast, but stats won't reflect it because Mariota isn't throwing outside the numbers 10+ yds down the field. 

I don't know what average is for a GM over those two years, but I would have to guess his successful additions were at the very least average. He's certainly hasn't been bullet proof.

Year three is going to depend a lot in Evans and Landry turning out to be very good because Butler is already looking like a bad signing and we had so few picks. Lewis looks good. Correa trade looks solid.