Saint's playoff picture - 2018

[JMG5]

What do we need to happen in order to secure a 1st round bye next week? Or is it not possible to secure it next week?

[Jlowe22]

6 hours ago, JMG5 said:

What do we need to happen in order to secure a 1st round bye next week? Or is it not possible to secure it next week?

Win plus Bears loss?

One more win and we pull away from Cowboys and Seahawks.

[Destructo Spin]

If the Cowboys won out and we lost out, Cowboys would be ahead of us on the head-to-head tiebreaker (both teams would be 11-5)

Bears can get to 12 wins if they won out. At the moment they would hold the tiebreaker for common opponents since we lost that one game to the Bucs. Seahawks, I think, also would hold a tiebreaker over us on common opponents right now. So weird, but that's what it is.

Basically we just need to get to 13 wins so none of this crap makes any difference. And obviously, 14 wins gets the #1 seed.

[Mid Iowa]

Weekly update

14 weeks in the books, and there was only 1 seeding change. THE SAINTS!!! Got a boost back into the #1 spot with a road win, and a Rams loss.

As of week 14, with 3 weeks to go, The NFC looks like this:
#1 Saints 11-2 (Saints win the head to head over the Rams if the W/L column is the same)
Saints remaining schedule (at Panthers, Steelers, Panthers). 
A Saints win and a Bears loss (at any point moving forward) will secure the #2 seed. If the Saints win out, they retain the #1 seed. The Saint WILL hold at least #2 with 2 more wins.
#2 Rams 11-2 Don't let the loss to the Bears fool you. This is still our most dangerous competition.
Rams remaining schedule (Eagles, at Cardinals, 49ers). Any Rams win and Saints loss will flip the #'s 1&2 positions.
The Rams are now more vulnerable than ever with both the Saints and Bears holding the tie breaker over them. The Rams are really good, and are the beneficiaries of an easier division schedule than many teams. Of course, the same can be said for the top 4 seeds.
#3 Bears 9-4 (A scary good defense, and an offense that is finding it's path in a crumbling division that they'll win)
Coming off a big win, focus will be key for the Bears. They have a really nice remaining schedule, and could very well win out. (Packers, at 49ers, at Vikings), Despite my earlier statements (about the bears falling to #4) I think the Bears retain the #3 seed, but can't quite reach the #2.
#4 Cowboys 8-5 The Cowboys are a lock for the #4. They need 2 more wins to secure their division, and their competition is facing brutal remaining schedules.
The Cowboys remaining schedule isn't easy, but should produce at least 1 win. Highlight week 17 (at Colts, Buccs, at Giants)
#5 Seahawks 8-5 The Seahawks are strong holders of the #5 seed. They should finish 2 & 1 down the stretch, and have a winnable schedule remaining (at 49ers, Chiefs, Cardinals) including 2 home games. The Chiefs are the obvious threat here, but the 49ers and Cards would love to play spoiler.
#6 Vikings 6-6-1 How are these guys still in it? Oh yeah, the rest of the NFC is mediocre. This team is just a mess. Per last week's comment, I don't see the Vikings in a wildcard spot by season's end, but their contenders (Panthers (tough schedule), Eagles (tough schedule), and Redskins (a walking mess) may very well keep them in it. Their remaining schedule is looking like 2 & 1 at the absolute best. (Dolphins, at Lions, Bears). All indoor games is their only hope.

Contenders
Unchanged from last week -->This is an interesting race, and I'd say the Panthers are the only "in the hunt" team that could take the #6 spot from the Vikings. If I had to bet, I'd say the Vikings hang on due to their remaining schedule. But it won't be easy. this could be an 8-8 tie for both the Vikings and Panthers, with the Panthers on the outside looking in, yet again.

#7 Panthers 6-7 These guys have gone dormant, and will be in prime position for an upset over the Saints, at least once.
Their remaining schedule is not a favorable one (Saints, Falcons, at Saints) as they are looking at the Vikings for some help to get to #6.
#8 Eagles 6-7 Can't be ruled out. They probably have the toughest remaining schedule (at Rams (11-2), Texans (9-4), at Redskins (6-7)) with maybe 1 win left. Very poor odds.

Outside looking in
#9 Skins 6-7 They're facing a tough road. Hanging on to the #6 seed didn't work, and hanging on to the current #9 isn't going to be easy, but who's challenging at this point?
The Skins remaining schedule (at Jaguars, at Titans, Eagles) is somewhat favorable to hang on to the #6 spot, but who's tossing the rock? 2 wins might do it, but doubtful.
#10 Packers 5-7-1 Gained a spot. My post from last week --> They may just go on a 3 game winning streak and take the #6 spot. Uh, you think? Just maybe???
#11 Buccaneers 5-8 lost a spot to the Packers. At 5-8, they're still kind of in it, even though they are just horrible and would have to win out and get some help to take the #6 spot.

The Giants, Lions, and Falcons all still hold on to a minor glimmer of hope. If anyone from #6 through #9 win, the Falcons are out.
Giants schedule - Titans, at Colts, Cowboys
Lions Schedule - At Buffalo, Vikings, at Packers <-- most likely to pull one out of their arse due to schedule.
Falcons schedule - Cardinals, at Panthers, at Bucc. Yeah, on a 5 game losing streak.... they're done.

[sammymvpknight]

So if we finish the season with the same record as:

- Rams (Saints have tiebreaker)

- Bears (Bears have tiebreaker)

- Cowboys (Cowboys have tiebreaker)

[Jlowe22]

9 hours ago, Destructo Spin said:

If the Cowboys won out and we lost out, Cowboys would be ahead of us on the head-to-head tiebreaker (both teams would be 11-5)

Bears can get to 12 wins if they won out. At the moment they would hold the tiebreaker for common opponents since we lost that one game to the Bucs. Seahawks, I think, also would hold a tiebreaker over us on common opponents right now. So weird, but that's what it is.

Basically we just need to get to 13 wins so none of this crap makes any difference. And obviously, 14 wins gets the #1 seed.

One more win and only the Bears can threaten.  That's why I say 1 win plus 1 loss from Bears guarantees us a bye, unless I'm forgetting something.

[Jlowe22]

7 hours ago, sammymvpknight said:

So if we finish the season with the same record as:

- Rams (Saints have tiebreaker)

- Bears (Bears have tiebreaker)

- Cowboys (Cowboys have tiebreaker)

The Bears lost 2 NFC games and 2 AFC games(I think).  If we go 12-4, we'll necessarily have lost at least 3 NFC games.

[Destructo Spin]

I thought it went to common opponents first and then conference record but I could definitely be wrong. Who can keep all this stuff straight?

[Jlowe22]

2 minutes ago, Destructo Spin said:

I thought it went to common opponents first and then conference record but I could definitely be wrong. Who can keep all this stuff straight?

I think it's head to head, then win/loss/tie among conference games.

Edit:  Then common opponents would be next

[Mid Iowa]

If  2 clubs are tied, it goes like this:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

[Jlowe22]

6 hours ago, Mid Iowa said:

If  2 clubs are tied, it goes like this:

1. Head-to-head (best won-lost-tied percentage in games between the clubs).
2. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division.
3. Best won-lost-tied percentage in common games.
4. Best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference.
5. Strength of victory.
6. Strength of schedule.
7. Best combined ranking among conference teams in points scored and points allowed.
8. Best combined ranking among all teams in points scored and points allowed.
9. Best net points in common games.
10. Best net points in all games.
11. Best net touchdowns in all games.
12. Coin toss

I think that's division tiebreakers.  Then conference tiebreakers are a little different.

[Jlowe22]

Here's the wiki

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NFL_playoffs#Breaking_ties

 

[nolaexpat]

You can have fun with scenarios here too:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-nfl-predictions/

One click gives a W, 2 a L, and 3 a tie.

[Destructo Spin]

much easier scenario now. just got to win one more game. TBH the Steelers scare me a little but home field should be a huge help.

[Mid Iowa]

Weekly update

15 weeks in the books. 
No changes in #1-6 seeds, and THE SAINTS!!! still hold the #1 spot, and have breathing room with another Rams loss.

As of week 15, with 2 weeks to go, The NFC looks like this:
#1 Saints 12-2 (Saints win the head to head over the Rams if the W/L column is the same)
Saints remaining schedule (Steelers, Panthers). Not an easy schedule, and our opponents are still playing for a hot spot.
A Saints win and a Bears loss (at any point moving forward) will secure the #2 seed. If the Saints win out, they retain the #1 seed. The Saint WILL hold at least #2 with 2 more wins.
#2 Rams 11-3 With 2 losses in a row, the season is showing it's length. The Rams are no longer our most dangerous competition, the Bears are.
Rams remaining schedule (at Cardinals, 49ers). Rams need to win out to keep the #2, with the Bears right on their tail, and Bear hold the tie breaker.
#3 Bears 10-4 The Bears clinched their division Sunday with a win over the Packers. Their remaining schedule, isn't a sure thing, but a likely thing (at 49ers, at Vikings) I'm interested to see if the Bears can achieve the #2 spot.
#4 Cowboys 8-6 The Cowboys may have pissed their chances down their leg by being shutout in Indy. I didn't see that coming. What is with this team?
Their remaining schedule isn't easy, but should produce at least 1 win. Highlight week 17 (Buccs, at Giants)
#5 Seahawks 8-6 The Seahawks dumped a "should be" win to the 49ers and now face the Chiefs. The 4,5,and 6 seeds are more juicy than ever right now! Their remaining schedule is all at home (Chiefs, Cardinals) The Chiefs are the obvious threat here, but the 49ers and Cards would love to play spoiler. <- from last week. Hawks better keep .500 here.
#6 Vikings 7-6-1 A commanding win at home with their new OC. Lookout, these guys are back in it, and they're hungry! Their remaining schedule (at Lions, Bears). All indoor games.

Contenders
Unchanged from last week -->This is an interesting race, and I'd say the Panthers are the only "in the hunt" team that could take the #6 spot from the Vikings. If I had to bet, I'd say the Vikings hang on due to their remaining schedule. But it won't be easy. this could be an 8-8 tie for both the Vikings and Panthers, with the Panthers on the outside looking in, yet again.

#7 Eagles 7-7 Jumped 2 spots with a win on the road at the Rams. Is this more Foles magic? I thought they had the toughest remaining schedule (at Rams (11-2), Texans (9-4), at Redskins (6-7)) but now I'm second guessing. These guys could still make it with some help, and 1 more win (although 2 would likely be needed). 
#8 Skins 7-7 Jumped up a spot. This is going to be a battle for them, and a tough road, still. The Skins remaining schedule (at Titans, Eagles) 1 more loss and they're pretty much done.
#9 Panthers 6-8 If you're going to lose 6 straight, you just as well do it when everything depends on it. Boy, can Cam Jordan get in Newton's head, or what!
Their remaining schedule (Falcons, at Saints) may produce 1 win, but not 2. These guys are the best garbage in the NFC.

Freshly eliminated, and playing for spoiler rights;
#10 Packers 5-8-1 lost to the Bears.
#11 Buccaneers 5-9 lost to themselves
The Giants, Lions, and Falcons are all officially eliminated.