Y2's Pre-Combine Mock Offseason

[y2lamanaki]

Was bored and wanted to play around with an offseason to see what I could come up with. Here it is. Enjoy! (Or don't. You might not want to.)

 

Releases: 

49ers release Cassius Marsh

I imagine that this would happen after the team made moves throughout the offseason to acquire other players to provide a pass rush first, but in this case I know that’s going to happen and let go of a player I don’t expect to see playing in 2019 and has an unnecessarily high price tag. 

Estimated Cap Room:  ~$75 Million

 

Re-Sign/Extend/Franchise Tag/Tender: 

49ers extend DeForest Buckner to a 6-year, 102 million contract with $45 million guaranteed. 

We can extend Buckner, I would do it now before this contract could look much much worse.  In an offseason where the #1 priority is to find him edge help, Buckner should play at an all-pro level in 2019 and beyond. It’s a Band-Aid I rip off now at the start of this. The length allows us to push some of the money into the future to keep cap space in 2019. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$67 million. 

49ers place franchise tag on Robbie Gould.

An obvious move to keep Gould around. We don’t need kicker problems in 2019. Kickers are needed to win games. Especially in the playoffs where every point counts. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$62 million.

49ers re-sign Mike Person to a 2 year, $6 million contract

I think this one could happen and I wouldn’t expect Person to get more than that from anyone else. Tried to give him a fair contract to return here and compete for the starting spot again with Garnett and anyone else that may arrive. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$59 million.

49ers place original round tender on Raheem Mostert. 

I struggled to put the 2nd round tender on him, but I do want to keep him around so I put the original round tender on him. I wouldn’t expect an extravagant contract from him anywhere, that would be much greater per year than the value of the original round tender cost, so I’ll match anyone that keeps it around that number. As much as I like having him around, I’m not doing more than that for a 3rd string RB/special teams player with an injury history. I bet no one else does either. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~57 million.

49ers tender ERFA Elijah Lee. 

Lee did well enough to keep around another year. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$56.5 million

 

Trades:

49ers trade their 2019 first round pick (#2 overall), 2019 2nd round pick (#36 overall), and a 2020 4th round pick to the Giants for the Giants 2019 first round pick (#6 overall) and Odell Beckham, Jr. 

I want to make a big move, and this is the biggest move of the possibilities out there. Whether or not Giants will actually trade OBJ after having just signed him to a big deal remains to be seen, but in this one they decide to build an offense around Barkley and a young first round QB. 

On the 49ers side, we get a second offensive playmaker to pair with Kittle for Garoppolo to have as targets. It gives Shanahan the level of talent he had in Julio Jones, which turned into near record-level production. I would think with some tweaks to the offensive line and prayers for a lot of offensive health, this offense could vault into the top tier. The compensation seems worth it for this type of player. Without OBJ, I think there’s a great chance that #36 is a WR, or used to trade up for a WR anyway, so this doesn’t affect my draft plans in 2019. But I also save 2020’s first in acquiring a superstar player to complete the offense and grow within it for years to come. 

Here’s how I estimated the value of the trade:

The Eagles traded #8, a 3rd, 4th, next year’s first, and next year’s 2nd for #2 and a next year’s 4th in 2016 for Wentz. The difference between the 8th and the 6th pick is 200 points according to the trade value chart, but it is probably a bit more exaggerated for a QB and Wentz was possibly a hotter prospect than any of the 2019 QBs, so we’ll say Giants can save an additional 100 points (value of a 4th round pick) for a total of 300 points. So that would basically remove next year’s 2nd from what they’d need to move in that trade. Meaning, to get from #6 to #2, the equivalent trade would be #77 (worth 205), #100 (worth 100), and a future first (worth 580), or a total value of 885 points. 

I estimated it would cost two firsts to get a player like OBJ. This type of game-changing player in his prime would certainly require a good amount, so I figured 2 firsts. Not necessarily a #2 overall first, but about two firsts. If a team were picking 18th and thought that a game-changing WR could put them over the top, I would assume they’d trade #18 and next year’s first to do it, and Giants would accept. That’s worth a total of 1480 points. That means the 49ers need to add in 595 points to make it worth it. #36 (540) and the future 4th (44) were close enough that I felt like it was more than a fair trade. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$40.5 million million

49ers trade CJ Beathard to the Broncos for a 7th round pick (#237 overall). 

It doesn’t sound like Case Keenum will be on the Broncos team much longer after the Joe Flacco trade, so the Broncos will be in the market for a backup QB. With his former QB coach now the offensive coordinator in Denver, the Broncos pick up a QB with whom he is familiar in Beathard. I don’t know what a Beathard market really looks like. I wouldn’t be surprised if someone in the Shanahan tree wanted a QB who was available that knew the system to help out in the QB room. So they might even be willing to go a bit higher to get Beathard as a backup, knowing he’s probably available with Garoppolo and Mullens at the top of the depth chart and no need to keep three. So I bet super low and said a late 7th. Because it is still Beathard. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$41 million

 

Free Agency:

49ers sign Earl Thomas to a 4-year, $60 million contract with $24 million guaranteed.

One of the musts I felt in this offseason was to add superstars on each side of the ball, and I think this one is desperately needed on the back end. I bet large on Earl Thomas returning to form at age 30 and playing great for a few more years that I give him the largest safety contract number (by year) to keep him from the Cowboys. Knowing Paraag, he could create this contract to have a lot of fluff in the final years if necessary. But we should certainly help our INT problem. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$29 million

49ers sign Za’Darius Smith to a 4-year, $52 million contract with $22 million guaranteed. 

It’s a big bet on one great season, but it’s a risk that could have very big rewards. Za’Darius Smith is one of what I believe needs to be 3 additions at pass-rusher, and he has the added bonus of doubling as the SAM. I think Smith is going to get a big paycheck, so I bet on it being from us because of his ability at SAM. Knowing the pass rush is still going to be addressed again, I make that bet for a potential game-changer. And again - the Paraag fluff can be a part of this one as well. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$16 million

49ers sign Ezekiel Ansah to a 1-year, $11 million contract

In this scenario, the 49ers sign a talented-when-healthy player who has troubles staying healthy to a 1-year prove-it deal for decent money at the position. Given that Ansah has had this trouble for a while and is already going to be entering his age 30 season, it seems like a 1-year prove-it deal would be his best bet. We can afford to give him one to upgrade the pass rush, and at the same time not overspend. There are connections to Ansah here in SF, so it’s a move that could make a lot of sense. Should he stay healthy and play at his high level, he can still cash in next year. 

Estimated Cap Room remaining: ~$5 million

 

Draft: 

49ers select Clelin Ferrell, DE, Clemson with their first round pick (#6 overall)

I personally don’t see a big difference between Nick Bosa and Josh Allen, and I don’t see a big difference between Josh Allen and Clelin Ferrell. I think this is the best possible year to be desperate for a pass-rusher, because I think there are 3 great ones in this class. Because of this, I’m completely comfortable with the Odell Beckham, Jr. trade that results in us losing out on both Bosa and Allen. Others might disagree - that’s fine. For me, I am happy with any of the three. Ferrell has the Aldon build/look, looks up to Aldon, and most importantly, seems like he wants to make sure he doesn’t screw up in the way Aldon did. Combined with the pass rush added by Za’Darius Smith moving forward and the one-year addition of Ezekiel Ansah to bank, and I believe the pass rush should be wonderful. Solomon Thomas can get his chance to rush on the inside with this group and Buckner for what should be a formidable group. Ferrell is the long-term guy at the LEO spot. 

49ers select Dru Samia, G, Oklahoma with their 3rd round pick (#67 overall)

With many of the needs filled on the team, the 49ers opt to add Dru Samia to the competition at G between Mike Person and Joshua Garnett. Samia is a perfect fit for the scheme, and the team had a great chance to scout him up close and in person at the Senior Bowl. 

49ers select Josh Oliver, TE, San Jose State with their 4th round pick (#104 overall)

The backup TE spot is one I think really needs to improve. The TE is incredibly valuable and I don’t want a situation where Kittle is injured and Celek is forced into his role. I think Oliver can take over that and be an added weapon rather than the guy we just haven’t been able to cut since 2012. 

49ers select Justin Layne, CB, Michigan State with their 5th round pick (#104 overall)

At some point in the offseason, I would have loved to add more competition for the starting spot opposite Richard Sherman, but I think the team can afford to see how Witherspoon vs. Moore turns out for that spot. With Earl Thomas now helping out over top and a much improved pass rush, that should be fine. For depth, we’ll now add a big-bodied corner into the mix and with luck, Layne might even push for playing time. 

49ers select James Williams, RB, Washington State with their 6th round pick (#176 overall)

Williams is the perfect type of back for the Shanahan offense and in the 6th round, this could be a great guy to add to the RB mix. While McKinnon/Breida/Mostert seems like a set backfield, none have proven to be the pinnacle of health. Williams adds some competition to the RB field. 

49ers select Dakota Allen, LB, Texas Tech with their 6th round pick (#212 overall)

Allen adds to the competition and depth, most likely at the WILL position. Probably isn’t enough to push Malcolm Smith off of the roster at this point, but he can compete and certainly contribute on special teams. 

49ers select Jackson Barton, OT, Utah (#237 overall)

Some extra competition for backup T added to the roster. Because this team is excellent with finding 7th rounders, this means Barton is sure to be a stellar player on the team for that reason alone.

 

Other Decisions: 

Arik Armstead

Having bet on getting the extra pick with Beathard, I bet on the 49ers keeping Armstead, at least through the offseason. He’s rock solid in the run defense, and while it’s paying him a lot on that option, I just can’t cut him yet. Armstead is a good player, and I think waiting it out and looking at teams reevaluating after the draft and through the preseason to see if anyone wants him would be the better way. I say there’s no market for Armstead before free agency, so he ultimate sticks around at first. This also doesn’t force the 49ers to try and replace him in the offseason, because the worst-case scenario would only be having Armstead fit into this team for his run blocking skills in 2019. 

Garrett Celek

I would love to see us make him expendable at much lower cost in 2019. Similar to Armstead, I don’t think anything happens with him until the cut-down to 53. I know I want to try and remove him from the roster and save $2 million, but for now he sticks around. I would imagine after the draft 

Malcolm Smith and Brock Coyle

I just couldn’t find a way to get rid of Malcolm Smith this year. Since his salary still fits in 2019 and since not everything the team needs to do can be accomplished in one year, Smith remains in 2019 on this roster. Similarly, I opted to leave Brock Coyle on the roster as well. Smith and Coyle can compete with Dakota Allen, Elijah Lee, and Fred Warner for probably 4 spots on the roster. 

2019 Roster: 

QB: Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Mullens
HB: Jerrick McKinnon, Matt Breida, Raheem Mostert, James Williams
FB: Kyle Juszczyk 
WR: Odell Beckham, Jr., Dante Pettis, Marquise Goodwin, Trent Taylor, Kendrick Bourne, Richie James
TE: George Kittle, Josh Oliver, Garrett Celek, Ross Dwelley
OT: Joe Staley, Mike McGlinchey, Shon Coleman, Jackson Barton
OG: Laken Tomlinson, Mike Person, Dru Samia, Joshua Garnett
C: Weston Richburg, Erik Magnuson

DL: DeForest Buckner, Solomon Thomas, Ezekiel Ansah, Clelin Ferrell, DJ Jones, Arik Armstead, Sheldon Day, Ronald Blair, Julian Taylor, Kentavius Street

LB: Fred Warner, Za’Darius Smith, Elijah Lee, Malcolm Smith, Brock Coyle, Dakota Allen, Dekoda Watson

CB: Richard Sherman, Ahkello Witherspoon, Tarvarius Moore, K’Waun Williams, DJ Reed, Justin Layne

S: Earl Thomas, Jaquiski Tartt, Adrian Colbert, Marcell Harris

K: Robbie Gould
P: It’s at this point in the offseason I realized I don’t have a punter. I assume we won’t punt in 2019 so that’s fine.
LS: Colin Holba
 

[John232]

Straight love this. I could quibble about getting late round picks back in the OBJ trade.  Clelin, Ziggy and Z'Darius with Blair and Marsh mixed in is at least a good and deep edge group. Turns it into a strength.

The only thing I would really want to see is acquiring a veteran corner. 

[y2lamanaki]

11 hours ago, John232 said:

The only thing I would really want to see is acquiring a veteran corner

I went in with this as a goal, actually, but my cap room dwindled with some big contracts. If I get rid of Armstead I can do it. I just ultimately decided I would go into the year knowing that CB#2 could be a weak spot or that one of the young 3rd round corners would step up to the plate with better help behind them at safety and a much-improved pass rush. 

[SoCalNiner]

How to blow through $70 million by Y2.

Jk. I actually really like that Odell trade if we can make it happen. I remember wanting him so bad on draft day.

 

[J-ALL-DAY]

Love it!!! So we're getting OBJ AND ET? I think I'd prefer signing someone like Houston over Smith, but you then have us signing Ansah which is fine. 

I'm good with Ferrell at #6. Do I think he's going to be a dominant pass rusher? No, but he's a low risk type of pick and will give us some really good seasons for years to come. 

Either way, Buckner/Thomas/Ansah/Ferrell/Smith will give us a much better pass rush than we had last year. 

I would like to see ILB being addressed at some point either in free agency or in the draft. I'd even be good with someone like Marshall on a fairly cheap deal. 

But overall this would be one hell of an offseason! 

[JIllg]

I really liked the Dru Samia pick. He is a superb fit for the scheme and may fall a touch just due to a lack of weight. I would have a couple of cosmetic alterations - I personally prefer Brandon Graham as my veteran LEO of choice and Shaquil Barrett at SAM, both on intermediate term contracts that would free the team up to take just about whoever they want at 6. Both also have a better history of pressure production/fewer injury concerns in the case of Ansah even on a one year deal. Otherwise, I would change very little other than to note that I believe Layne will rise pretty high in the last couple of months of the pre-draft process. Big corners with straight line speed and turning radii smaller than that of a Mack truck are valuable properties. He's pretty darn raw, but hey, so is Trayvon Mullen, who profiles similarly physically and is getting first two rounds hype. 

[Chrissooner49er]

  I wasn't too keen on the trade at first...but then your draft with the remaining picks!? I have to post this once again:   You got Ferrell! Samia! Allen! Barton! Just so, so sweet. 

The only later pick at LB I could want more than Dakota Allen: Sione Takitaki. Played with our own Fred Warner as a DE or EDGE and then moved to LB this year and really did well.