Very Interesting Metrics On Jordan Howard

[dll2000]

Howard carried offense on his back for 2 years.  He was the focal point.  

First year he should have made the pro bowl and was one of the best backs in the league.  You can't take that away.  That happened.  

Second year whole offense was beyond abysmal.  Third year he didn't look good when talent around him was much better which is a head scratcher.  

If you really want to tackle Howard and the run game I think you throw out year 2 as worthless and look at what went right in 2016 and what went wrong in 2018.   What was different?

Holes good or bad, correct or incorrect reads, play calls, scheme, blown assignments, botched snaps affecting timing, volume of carries, box defenders, down and distance, lead or behind, etc.

I don't think just citing stats is going to do it or tell you the true story.  You would need to watch each run play and factor in above and it would be hard to do without knowing everyone's assignments on each play.  You could make educated guesses.

I watched one play in great depth and it took me like 20 minutes to break everyone down across the offense.  I concluded for that play, it was O line's fault and not Howards.  With two slightly better blocks you have a 25 yard+ gain on that play.  [Left side of line, mainly Leno, correctly blocked IZ right if that was line call, but play looked to be a called TE trap left which would mean either Leno blew it big time or line call didn't match the play which is someone else's fault] 

Instead of a huge gain through a gaping hole in reality you had a tackle for no gain because the correct blocks weren't made.   That looks really bad statistically for Howard.  It could have been a great stat if play was run correctly.  You would have to do that for every single run play.   Kinda of like a receiver falling down and instead of a touchdown you have an interception.  A big statistical swing that on paper looks really bad for a QB when it could look really great.     

It would probably be a lot of work for nothing, unless you were Howard or Howard's agent.  If stats are bad for a whole season then you probably have a correct story without an in depth breakdown.  More data will balance out good and bad.  But you never know unless you really look and who has that kind of time aside from people doing it for a living.  

I think the real question is should Nagy change his run scheme and play calling to Howard's strengths or just get a player that can do what he wants to do?  In 2019 anyway.  I think in 2018 he should have adjusted more for Howard for betterment of team, but what's done is done.  We can't make the same mistakes again.

 

[soulman]

7 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think the real question is should Nagy change his run scheme and play calling to Howard's strengths or just get a player that can do what he wants to do?  In 2019 anyway.  I think in 2018 he should have adjusted more for Howard for betterment of team, but what's done is done.  We can't make the same mistakes again.

This seems to be the $64,000 question.

Even with Witzmann playing place of Long as soon as we went back to playing more zone blocking and less power/gap Howard's success increased and he had his best game once Long returned in game 16 and the statistical difference between Howard's YPC with Long playing RG vs Witzmann is huge.

Howard is a pure zone RB who relies on his vision and ability to read his blocks and find some daylight.  The Bears OL has been built around a zone blocking scheme as well yet what we ended up with for 2/3 of a season is an OL trying to learn and convert to a gap scheme and a RB trying to remain productive running behind it.  Watching it happen in real time or in review does expose some of the problems we had doing that.

Pace and Nagy both commented on this in Colleen Kane's column in the Trib.

"Pace and Bears coach Matt Nagy have shied from detailing their exact evaluations of what went wrong in their running game in 2018, and neither has placed the blame solely on Howard. Both noted Wednesday they thought there was improvement as the season progressed."

So I do think that question is very apropos.  I've just voiced it differently as "What does Matt Nagy want out of Jordan Howard assuming he's still his primary RB"?

It looked to me like Howard was playing about 8-10lbs heavier last year than he was previously and that's something they may have asked him to do to hopefully make him more effective in a gap scheme.  If we revert to a zone scheme which Howard is more productive in should he drop some weight and play closer to 220lbs and will that help him to get some of his explosiveness back?

Of course if we do trade him and replace him it's all a moot point but that's not assured and unless we do or find a better lead back he's still it so Nagy should have some thoughts in mind as far as what he plans to do in order to keep his running game more productive in 2019 as it was in December 2018.  If Howard is still his #1 guy he needs to build around that for now.

[AZBearsFan]

11 hours ago, dll2000 said:

I think the real question is should Nagy change his run scheme and play calling to Howard's strengths or just get a player that can do what he wants to do?  In 2019 anyway.  I think in 2018 he should have adjusted more for Howard for betterment of team, but what's done is done.  We can't make the same mistakes again.

This is where I’m at too. I’m not trying to convince anyone to see things how I do. I also don’t think I should have to since these things seem plain as day to me, but I digress. I just don’t see enough redeeming quality in what Howard brings to the table that makes him not expendable other than “there isn’t anyone else on the roster.” That’s probably changing in a week, and certainly in the next 8 weeks. This is THE time to upgrade. Howard is available every week and doesn’t fumble. That’s great, but if he’s producing at a below average level like the past 2 seasons it isn’t really helping us. He’s good but not great in the red zone. Cool. But not really unique. 

He’s not fast. He’s not elusive. He has produced sparse at best chunk plays for two straight years. He isn’t a passing game asset. As was pointed out earlier in the thread, if a play isn’t blocked perfectly he really struggles. He had one good year before two underwhelming ones. And we think we can flip THAT for a mid-round pick in the offseason? C’mon.

Put yourself in the shoes of any GM hypothetically thinking of trading for Jordan Howard on a non-emergency basis in March or April and not in the shoes of the fan base looking to potentially flip him and do a strengths analysis on Howard as a commodity. What makes him valuable enough to give up an asset of consequence for other than salary over just signing someone like Latavius Murray? “He was all we had on offense in 2016” is not by itself something that gives a player trade value.Trading for Howard gets you 1 year at $2M. There are about half a dozen FA with comparable abilities that can be had at the same money or maybe less without giving up anything. At least guys like Murray or Powell or Gore add value in the passing game. Running production wise they’re all basically the same guy.

I don’t doubt that someone offered a 3 for Howard during the season but that’s a far different trade situation than seeking to trade him in the offseason. You can get a premium return during the season because of the immediacy of the need that just isn’t there in March or April. If we do decide to try to trade Howard this offseason I think that expecting anything more in return than a conditional pick. 

[dll2000]

Great posts @AZBearsFan @soulman

[soulman]

I'm just emphasizing that due to whatever resistance we may have trading Howard for fair value I'm gonna keep dealing with how best to use him getting as much productivity from him as we can in his contract year.  He's our #1 RB right now until he isn't.

Given that there's no chance he'll be re-signed I agree that it's time to shop for his replacement and I expect Pace will do his best to unearth another bargain pick in this draft.  There are some prospects who seem like a good fit if they fall to us where Pace wants to draft them.  With as few picks as we have and as late as we pick in each round we're at a bit of a disadvantage as far as selection or trading up.  Not much ammo for that.

I also see Pace adding a vet RB in FA but I think we may be talking about a mid tier guy who won't cost any more than Howard and maybe less.  Maybe the best way to improve the running game is to assure we have some competition for carries and work with that.  As David Haugh wrote our real goal is first to replace Mizzell.  That alone will help and if we find Howard's replacement as well so much the better.

[AZBearsFan]

I think RB is going to get more emphasis than a lot of people think in FA. Some of that is tea leaf reading by me and some is how much I ABSOLUTELY LOVE the idea of Tevin Coleman getting 18-20 touches in our scheme every week. But, with what we have heard throughout the season about the running game from Nagy and the emphasis put on improving there by both Nagy and Pace, then with Pace bringing back the entire starting OL it just makes sense that they’re going to invest heavily. 

For Nagy it’s clear what he wants there. Versatility and speed are musts. A huge portion of his offense runs off of that ability in the backfield that we don’t have. Cohen has them but he’s 40 lb too light to be featured. It’s also the only reason that makes sense that Mizzell got reps last year. 

For Pace it’s more clear IMO. Pace has staked his career on the success of Nagy (his 2nd HC hire), Trubisky (because duh) and Mack (because of the cost of the trade), and he’s going to do whatever he can within reason to set them up. He took care of Mack with Pagano. Now he needs to take care of Pace and Trubisky by upgrading the RB position. He’s been full measure committed to Trubisky since he was drafted (as he should be) including the hire of Nagy and a ton of legit weapons last offseason. But, and it was said last spring and summer, it wasn’t feasible to address everything roster-wise last offseason. To me that means running back. The defense is basically set except for the most replaceable piece of the secondary in a flooded market and at the nickel position where there are a few good FA options besides Callahan and also where we started creating competition last offseason for a potential developmental replacement (the route we got Callahan in the first place) in Franklin and Mincy. Recall there was at least some chatter about Mincy maybe making the squad last year coming out of the preseason. 

The money is there to add any RB but Bell in FA without significantly mortgaging the future. Even a full blown Mack restructure (which I’m expecting for FA, to extend Whitehair or both), which would potentially free up enough money for any RB other than Bell and also a plug-and-play Amos replacement for 2019 and maybe beyond, would only add about $6M in potential dead money (reducing ~$2M every year) to the back half of his contract to the years it’s not already 99.9999% confirmed he will still be here. At the current rate the cap is going up by 2022 that’s gonna be less than 3% of the cap in years where the whole league financial system may have been turned on its head anyway (recall the madness of the uncapped year at the end of the last CBA). That percentage of dead cap should Mack be released years from now largely inconsequential, especially if the move is made to try to bolster the roster in an attempt to win the Super Bowl during the undisputed window to do so. 

[abstract_thought]

I totally agree. Pace has been proactive in addressing immediate needs via free agency and I see him pursuing one of the better RBs on the market. That will allow him to draft athletes and make luxury picks to build depth.

The next few years are Pace's best opportunity to build a championship team. With that in mind, I can't see him relying on Howard and/or a rookie.

[AZBearsFan]

2 hours ago, abstract_thought said:

I totally agree. Pace has been proactive in addressing immediate needs via free agency and I see him pursuing one of the better RBs on the market. That will allow him to draft athletes and make luxury picks to build depth.

The next few years are Pace's best opportunity to build a championship team. With that in mind, I can't see him relying on Howard and/or a rookie.

THIS. There are good backs available for what will be half or less than what Gurley or David Johnson are looking at over the next 3 years. Even in a hypothetical where you give Tevin Coleman the same deal Jerick McKinnon got last year (and I don’t think it would take that, and less for Ingram) the 2019 and 2020 hits are $6.5M and 5.75M. Totally palatable with just a Mack restructure and in a way that doesn’t kill you long term and doesn’t keep you from keeping Amos and/or Callahan or from extending Whitehair if that’s the plan. Our draft pool salary allocation for 2019 is minuscule without a 1st or 2nd round pick and will be greatly reduced in 2020 as well without a 1st. This year without trades and assuming all draftees make the 53 we’ll pay 5 salaries each well under $1M, and likely the two 7th rounders would not even fall within the top 51. Point being, we can spend in FA much closer to the actual cap than in most years. In 2018 DJ Moore (pick 24; same one we traded in the Mack deal)’s rookie deal gives him the following approximate cap hits we WILL NOT be taking on each of the next two seasons:

Year 1: $2.03M

Year 2: $2.53M

Year 3: $3.05M

Year 4: $3.55M 

By 2020 most if not all of the presumptive FA signing’s salary will be effectively offset by not having to pay 1st round pick contracts. 

[soulman]

Coleman was a guy many Bears fans wanted us to draft as a rookie and I imagine we could throw him into the mix of backs we could be looking at.

The key would be can we get him for a deal that would put his 2019 cap around $2 mil or will he be offered far more than that looking for a spot where's he's gonna be a #1 RB?  And if we sign him can he be a #1 RB if we trade Howard?

I guess this would all be easier to project if we knew precisely what Pace's plans for Howard are but we don't.  Until then all I can go with is we're replacing Mizzell and Cunningham first with a back who can do some thing Howard can't do.

[topwop1]

18 minutes ago, soulman said:

Coleman was a guy many Bears fans wanted us to draft as a rookie and I imagine we could throw him into the mix of backs we could be looking at.

The key would be can we get him for a deal that would put his 2019 cap around $2 mil or will he be offered far more than that looking for a spot where's he's gonna be a #1 RB?  And if we sign him can he be a #1 RB if we trade Howard?

I guess this would all be easier to project if we knew precisely what Pace's plans for Howard are but we don't.  Until then all I can go with is we're replacing Mizzell and Cunningham first with a back who can do some thing Howard can't do.

Coleman is a guy who I can get behind signing.  He's got the size, speed and strength to handle #1 duties and he can also catch the ball pretty well too.  He's a local guy too and seems to have his head on pretty straight.  SB experience with the Falcons and shouldn't cost too much compared to guys like Bell and Ingram.

 

[soulman]

Lots of options for which way to go and so far we don't know which is most likely.

No doubt Pace should be kickin' Coleman's tires to see where's gonna fall money wise.  Would be kind of interesting if we had the two back to back starting RBs out of Indiana competing for carries.