Karnage84 Posted March 22, 2019 Share Posted March 22, 2019 With the Lions signing Jesse James to a big contract and bringing in different guys like Logan Thomas, I wanted to get a better understanding of the Bevell offense. Breaking out the stats from his time in Minnesota and Seattle, it helped to get an idea of how things should look. PASS/RUSH: Bevell averages a 51%/49% Pass/Rush split over this timeframe. There are years (2016 and 2017) where the passing attack is as high as 58% and years (2012) where it's as low as 43%. TARGET BREAKDOWN: On average, the target breakdown (targets/attempts) is as follows: WR1 (20.51%), WR2 (15.05%), TE1 (13.20%), WR3 (11.29%). RB1 (7.43%), RB2 (5.46%), TE2 (4.3%). From 2015 - 2017, we saw the TE1 as high as 17.3%. In other years, (2011 and 2014) it was as low as 8.64%. TE2 saw its highest market share at 6.91% in 2012. 2013 and 2014 really stand out where the RB was the third most targeted receiver on the team. Jesse James: All of us might be overlooking that the Lions view James as a TE1 in this offense. With a more balanced attack, it's possible that they aren't looking for the 900 yard Jimmy Graham type of TE. In 2018, JJ had a catch completion % of 76.4% for 30/39, 423 yards, 2 TD's in 16 games (starting 7) with 14.1 yards per reception. Those numbers alone outweigh what our top TE (Toilolo) did. If we project him starting 16 games with the same reception rate we're looking at 89 targets for 900 yards. James has done nothing to suggest he's this type of player so far, so we should be a bit more realistic. However, if we assume 65 targets (typical production for TE1 in the Bevell offense) and scale down his completion % to his 2017 figure (68.3) and average his yards/reception to 11.4 then we're looking at 44 receptions for 500 yards. These are very similar numbers for what Golden Tate produced for us last season (albeit in 7 games and not 16). This would be a significant improvement over the production we received from the position last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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