Breshad Perriman: Was he better in his 10 games for Cleveland than his 3 seasons in Baltimore?

[diamondbull424]

3 hours ago, Danand said:

I really can't agree with this. Of course we didn't develop him as well as we could have, but to act like Perriman had a breakout season with the Browns is completely wrong. We saw the same glimpses of what he can do. Most of us was actually optimistic after the 2016 season because he made both tough catches and had long gains going for TD's.

Perriman had 0-3 catches in his games with the Browns, and if we remove one of his long gains from either the Panthers Bengals games, his stats look completely different - hence that if we are going to throw stats around, we have to acknowledge that with a small sample size, 1 outlier can have a big impact on the big picture.

What I think is, Ravens fans saw we have was supposed to be when he played against us in that final game, and he played with a swagger we never saw, but when someone then says, he broke out with the Browns and that it was because it was Baker Mayfield threw the football and not Flacco, then it is fair to call BS.

That’s nonsense. While it’s true that a small sample size has the ability to produce outliers... 33 recs isn’t some major sample size either. If we play the “remove stats” game at what point does it stop? It’s literally one of the least developed arguments. Why? Because I’m sure if we take Perrimans 2016 season and remove 3-4 of his best games from the equation than he looks closer to 2017 Perriman.

We never saw him play with swagger. Now why is that? It could be pressure, it could be opportunity, and I acknowledge that. But a guy like Baker instills confidence within his teammates and they galvanize their play around him. That’s a PART of his QB makeup and what makes him effective. Flacco does not inspire confidence in his teammates. He gets up and plays the game... that’s it. Heck, he didn’t even work out with his receivers half the years he was here. Flacco was always more about doing “just enough to pass the test” and utilizing his “genius” so that he didn’t have to study.

So when someone says “Baker had Perriman playing good” and someone also says “Perriman had swagger with them that he didn’t have with us” that is part of the makeup for why Baker benefited him. Lamar Jackson is the type of guy that certain teammates also seem to really get behind.

So the comment of us drafting someone similar to Breshad in DK Metcalf (which I think they have two definitely different playing styles but still) wouldn’t necessarily be a reason to lament DK as the circumstances are different.

While DK, is not my favorite receiver he definitely has an intriguing athletic profile that will be hard to be denied. I definitely like other receivers more but if the front office bet on him, I would certainly understand why. Which I’m sure is the point of the original comment that sparked the Breshad comments in the first place.

[Danand]

9 minutes ago, diamondbull424 said:

That’s nonsense. While it’s true that a small sample size has the ability to produce outliers... 33 recs isn’t some major sample size either. If we play the “remove stats” game at what point does it stop? It’s literally one of the least developed arguments. Why? Because I’m sure if we take Perrimans 2016 season and remove 3-4 of his best games from the equation than he looks closer to 2017 Perriman.

We never saw him play with swagger. Now why is that? It could be pressure, it could be opportunity, and I acknowledge that. But a guy like Baker instills confidence within his teammates and they galvanize their play around him. That’s a PART of his QB makeup and what makes him effective. Flacco does not inspire confidence in his teammates. He gets up and plays the game... that’s it. Heck, he didn’t even work out with his receivers half the years he was here. Flacco was always more about doing “just enough to pass the test” and utilizing his “genius” so that he didn’t have to study.

So when someone says “Baker had Perriman playing good” and someone also says “Perriman had swagger with them that he didn’t have with us” that is part of the makeup for why Baker benefited him. Lamar Jackson is the type of guy that certain teammates also seem to really get behind.

So the comment of us drafting someone similar to Breshad in DK Metcalf (which I think they have two definitely different playing styles but still) wouldn’t necessarily be a reason to lament DK as the circumstances are different.

While DK, is not my favorite receiver he definitely has an intriguing athletic profile that will be hard to be denied. I definitely like other receivers more but if the front office bet on him, I would certainly understand why. Which I’m sure is the point of the original comment that sparked the Breshad comments in the first place.

The bolded part, you are guessing. You are basing your argument on a guess.

Just today I listened to a podcast, where they interviewed a Broncos beatwriter who claimed to have talked to players that left the Ravens, which they did in part because they didn't believe in the new offense, and because they would have liked to see the Ravens coaching staff use Flacco against the Chargers.

I completely agree that we can always toy around with stats, that is also why I don't put much faith in them. But then using them to show how much better Perriman was with the Browns, that doesn't hold water. He showed almost similar production with the new chosen one in Cleveland as he did with Flacco.

[Rein]

7 hours ago, Danand said:

The bolded part, you are guessing. You are basing your argument on a guess.

Just today I listened to a podcast, where they interviewed a Broncos beatwriter who claimed to have talked to players that left the Ravens, which they did in part because they didn't believe in the new offense, and because they would have liked to see the Ravens coaching staff use Flacco against the Chargers.

I completely agree that we can always toy around with stats, that is also why I don't put much faith in them. But then using them to show how much better Perriman was with the Browns, that doesn't hold water. He showed almost similar production with the new chosen one in Cleveland as he did with Flacco.

Who was that and on what podcast? We’ve heard rumblings about this and especially the fact the FA WR “are not calling” - as Harbaugh referenced it - but I haven’t heard anything concrete and definite??

[AngusMcFife]

7 hours ago, Danand said:

The bolded part, you are guessing. You are basing your argument on a guess.

Just today I listened to a podcast, where they interviewed a Broncos beatwriter who claimed to have talked to players that left the Ravens, which they did in part because they didn't believe in the new offense, and because they would have liked to see the Ravens coaching staff use Flacco against the Chargers.

I completely agree that we can always toy around with stats, that is also why I don't put much faith in them. But then using them to show how much better Perriman was with the Browns, that doesn't hold water.

It's true that that statement is a guess, but is a guess based on commentary that has come directly from the castle via reporters. But it is not a guess to say that Perriman played much better in half a season with Mayfield than he did in 3 years with Flacco. It's not a guess when you parse the stats.

But apparently for you, any statistics we put out there are unreliable. So not only are you saying we cannot make inferences, but any hard data we present to support our point is irrelevant as well.

You don't see that you've rigged the rules of game in your favor? You refuse to bend when both logic and data are against you.  

Quote

He showed almost similar production with the new chosen one in Cleveland as he did with Flacco.

You think our argument is bunk, but are claiming -8.7 and +36.6 DVOA is "almost similar". Nuff said. 

[AngusMcFife]

9 minutes ago, Rein said:

Who was that and on what podcast? We’ve heard rumblings about this and especially the fact the FA WR “are not calling” - as Harbaugh referenced it - but I haven’t heard anything concrete and definite??

Well I don't think it would be Mosley, since he was considering returning until his $ offers got insane.

Likewise with Zadarius Smith, his contract was way more than the Ravens were willing to offer and never was going to return realistically.  

Weddle and Crabtree were cut, and I'm pretty sure John Brown wasn't offered a contract. 

Which leaves... Suggs, who joined a 3-13 team that just cleaned house on a 1-year contract.  

[AngusMcFife]

8 hours ago, diamondbull424 said:

So the comment of us drafting someone similar to Breshad in DK Metcalf (which I think they have two definitely different playing styles but still) wouldn’t necessarily be a reason to lament DK as the circumstances are different.

While DK, is not my favorite receiver he definitely has an intriguing athletic profile that will be hard to be denied. I definitely like other receivers more but if the front office bet on him, I would certainly understand why. Which I’m sure is the point of the original comment that sparked the Breshad comments in the first place.

Actually my point was we should give Chris Moore a chance, because perhaps he didn't mesh well with Flacco but can be productive in a Lamar Jackson-led offense (similar to how Perriman didn't mesh well with Flacco but did fine in limited opportunities with Mayfield). 

[Danand]

10 hours ago, Rein said:

Who was that and on what podcast? We’ve heard rumblings about this and especially the fact the FA WR “are not calling” - as Harbaugh referenced it - but I haven’t heard anything concrete and definite??

It was the "locked on NFL draft" podcast https://player.fm/series/locked-on-nfl-draft-1647099/locked-on-nfl-draft-4519-2019-guest-mock-draft-picks-9-10-with-sal-capaccio-and-ben-albright

 

[Danand]

10 hours ago, AngusMcFife said:

It's true that that statement is a guess, but is a guess based on commentary that has come directly from the castle via reporters. But it is not a guess to say that Perriman played much better in half a season with Mayfield than he did in 3 years with Flacco. It's not a guess when you parse the stats.

But apparently for you, any statistics we put out there are unreliable. So not only are you saying we cannot make inferences, but any hard data we present to support our point is irrelevant as well.

You don't see that you've rigged the rules of game in your favor? You refuse to bend when both logic and data are against you.  

You think our argument is bunk, but are claiming -8.7 and +36.6 DVOA is "almost similar". Nuff said. 

Perriman played in 10 games and had two games really stand out. We can agree that he had a statistically better season with the Browns. He had 3 games with a very high yards per catch (5 catches for a combined 188 yards, more than half he had all season) and then he had 3 catches against the Ravens including a nice TD and sideline grab. Perriman still did not shot anything we hadn't seen. He also made long catches, and contested catches with the Ravens. He just didn't do it consistently, which he also didn't do with the browns. You took at stab at Flacco being the issue, while I argue that it has nothing to do with who threw him the ball.

I don't rig the stats, I just point out what lies behind your -8.7 and +36.6 DVOA stats. Whenever you do that, I doubt you watch games and relies on what PFF and similar sites tells you are good players.

[AngusMcFife]

4 hours ago, Danand said:

 He also made long catches, and contested catches with the Ravens. He just didn't do it consistently, which he also didn't do with the browns.

He WAS doing it consistently for the Browns as soon as the post-Hugh Jackson offense took shape. That's why his DVOA is so much higher. Perriman pretty much capitalized on every opportunity.  

For a deep threat who averaged 22 yards per catch, having 65% completion rate is extremely high. The greater the length of target, the lower the completion % should be. I don't know how much more consistent you want him to be. 

[AngusMcFife]

Yards/completion (leaders) and catch rate for players with 20+ targets

Perriman     21.3      65%

R. Foster     20.0       61%

D. Jackson  18.9      55%

J. Gordon    18.0      58%

M. Evans     17.7       62%

M. Goodwin 17.2      53%

T. Hill             17.0      63%

[Danand]

50 minutes ago, AngusMcFife said:

He WAS doing it consistently for the Browns as soon as the post-Hugh Jackson offense took shape. That's why his DVOA is so much higher. Perriman pretty much capitalized on every opportunity.  

For a deep threat who averaged 22 yards per catch, having 65% completion rate is extremely high. The greater the length of target, the lower the completion % should be. I don't know how much more consistent you want him to be. 

So now you are nitpicking and chosing which statistics support your argument. Its insane you can't see it.

[baltimoreRebel]

36 minutes ago, Danand said:

So now you are nitpicking and chosing which statistics support your argument. Its insane you can't see it.

It's usually the signs of a dying argument. 

[Danand]

36 minutes ago, baltimoreRebel said:

It's usually the signs of a dying argument. 

Indeed. I just find it difficult to understand how they can disagree with the fact, that Perriman showed the same playmaking ability and the same inconsistency with the Browns as he did with the Ravens, unless we of course choose specifically which games we base the argument on.

Had Perriman played in every game like he did against us in week 17 last year, he would still be a raven. We saw him capable of playing like that, but we also saw the drops and the inconsistency as well. That had nothing to do with scheme or who threw the ball, but simply because of his drops.

[diamondbull424]

1 hour ago, Danand said:

So now you are nitpicking and chosing which statistics support your argument. Its insane you can't see it.

Disagree. You’re literally nitpicking stats by choosing outlier games with the Browns  to say Perriman was similar to his Ravens play. But yet if you were truly looking to make a fair comparison you would choose to do the same thing with his 2016 season with the Ravens. Choosing to remove his two biggest outlier games for 2018 to make your point is holistically and statistically dishonest.

So because you are hiding behind the excuse of “I don’t like stats but your stats are wrong” (which I’m not the biggest stat guy but it was clear to see that his on field play was different), I have took the liberty of compiling a more accurate and honest breakdown of Breshad Perrimans’ 2016 vs 2018 seasons.

I am choosing to remove the two best games AND two worst games from each season. That way the positive and negative outliers will better be controlled. Then I will divide that number into per game averages. That should provide the most accurate context of statistical measure.

2018: Browns

2.83 tgts/g, 1.83 recs/g, 64.7% catch rate, 29.5 yds/g, 16.1 ypc, 10.4 ypt , 0.33 TDs/g.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PerrBr02/gamelog/2018/

2016: Ravens

4.83 tgts/g, 2.08 recs/g, 43.1% catch rate, 31.3 yds/g, 15.0 ypc, 6.5 ypt , 0.08 TDs/g.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PerrBr02/gamelog/2016/

 

So as we can see using these statistical breakdowns from his seasons, he was a much more efficient deep threat option with the Browns than with the Ravens.

We can speak to anything more than that. But we could infer from this information that a) Perriman improved b) since his number of receptions didn’t change much but his number of targets changed substantially, this could show that one QB only chose to target him when he was either open or in good position to make a catch while the other chose to spam target him and forcing bad catch situations.

Thus it is fair for one to assume based off of these stats that while Perriman didn’t perform well with Flacco, he might’ve performed better with Lamar. Same way that while Chris Moore might not have thrived with Flacco he might perform better with Lamar. This isn’t to damn Flacco, as John Brown and him connected well (after spending an offseason together training, which Flacco has been inconsistent with doing with his receivers during his entire tenure with the Ravens) but rather to prove the point that just because one QB/WR tandem doesn’t work doesn’t mean another QB/WR tandem won’t. Whether it’s Chris Moore or a player similar to Perriman that we draft (which I see more Perriman in Emanuel Hall than with DK Metcalf but that’s just me).

 

[diamondbull424]

42 minutes ago, Danand said:

Indeed. I just find it difficult to understand how they can disagree with the fact, that Perriman showed the same playmaking ability and the same inconsistency with the Browns as he did with the Ravens, unless we of course choose specifically which games we base the argument on.

Had Perriman played in every game like he did against us in week 17 last year, he would still be a raven. We saw him capable of playing like that, but we also saw the drops and the inconsistency as well. That had nothing to do with scheme or who threw the ball, but simply because of his drops.

Wrong. You’re the one that is cherrypicking games to fit your argument. You are the one saying “remove his best games” arguments. The stats from both seasons speak a completely different story in Perrimans efficiency with the Browns (his on field confidence as well) than what we saw with the Ravens (and Flacco). My judgement is based off of watching the games... before you come with the “stats don’t tell the whole story” argument. The only difference is that when people disagree on the “eyeball test” than stats provide a useful context to bridge the gap. Therefore why the stats are brought up into this argument.

And so doing the stats provide a holistically different story than the eyeball test that you continue to cling to... that Perriman was just as inefficient with the Browns as he was with the Ravens. Do the numbers yourself with the link I provided and show me a different story, I dare you. This entire time you’ve been building up a straw man. No one has stated that Perriman didn’t show playmaking skills with the Ravens, the argument has simply been that he’s been much more efficient with a different QB. That he has played better. Which the stats show.

You’ve gone to many lengths such as misinformation about the Browns choosing not to resign Perriman, which was proven incorrect. To arguing that by removing games we would see the “TRUE” Perriman. Which has again been proven incorrect.

For those reasons your arguments have been weighed, they has been measured, and they have been found wanting.