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You Have 24 Hours (Final Challenge on 250).


MacReady

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Just now, Malfatron said:

GotY without the host updating the title with the page number of the active challenge

gonna be a long shot

Trivial detail.  All the TASTY's care about is the ratings.  I'm destroying the competition. 

13,000 views in under a week. 

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49 minutes ago, Tk3 said:

Welp.. this one will tell us how good at maths people are

There are 3 approaches 

Two are smart depending on your risk tolerance, one is dumb

Im interested to see what people do

There are 3 TKs.

Two are dumb depending on how dumb you are

the third is also dumb

I'm interested to see how long it takes him to read this 

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25 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

oh, my bad.

i should have pieced together what the real arguement was.

What a dumbass i am

An event has a 10% to occur, which is constant in a vacuum.  It will always be 10% unless an external factor is introduced to change the constant (no longer in a vacuum).  

This isn’t the original argument, but that is apparently too advanced, so we will stick with basic principles and clear numbers.

Event 1:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 2:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 3:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 4:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 5:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 6:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 7:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 8:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 9:  10% Chance (Miss)

Event 10:  10% Chance (Hit)

So, the chance of a successful event remains 10%, while the chance of a failed event remains 90%.  The probability of witnessing at least one successful (hit) event rises with each consecutive attempted event.  

So, with 10 attempts, the math is:  [chance of failure]^[number of events].

9^10 = .348 = ~35% of witnessing a failure after 10 event attempts in which all prior results were a failure.  Still a 10% chance of occurring, but the likelihood of witnessing the result changes with each event.

Feel free to disagree.  It just makes you wrong and I can laugh about how dumb you are.

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