twslhs20 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 14 hours ago, Broncofan said: So I'm a HUGE fan of CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / JAX +130 ML / BUF +130 ML as these pay out 2 parleys for a total of +6200 1.0U LOL. But it's still a full card, so here are my Sunday Week 16 plays: ATS/ML/RACE (0.5U for each RACE) EARLY CIN -2.5 vs. BAL - explained above LAR -3 @ MIN - the early travel worries me, as does MIN's ability to play 1-score games, but I think LAR has the NFCW now in their sights with ARI's loss, and won't let this one slip. JAX +130 vs. NYJ, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) - explained above BUF +130 @ NE - with the NE WR and RB corps decimated (Ramondre Stephenson & Nelson Agholor Covid, Bourne just cleared, and Damien Harris iffy with the hammy injury) - this is an even more limited O that BUF D has to defend against. And there won't be bad weather for Josh Allen to operate in vs. the NE D, and thus play to his strengths. I'll take BUF here, although I hope OC Brian Daboll gets over his play calling funk that he was in pre-CAR game (which isn't really a great test). LATE LV +100 ML vs. DEN, RACE to 20/25 (+160/+300) - now this could sideways in a hurry if DEN can get an early lead. But Drew Lock, while helping add some gunslinger to the DEN pass O - also adds a ton of mistake/TO potential. LV seems to have DEN's number, they're 5-1 vs. Vic Fangio, so I'm happy to back a pick 'em call here. Along with my 2 0.5U 7-leg parleys at +6200 which have CIN -2.5, LAR-3, BUF ML & CIN-2.5, LAR-3, JAX ML left - that's 8.0U in ATS/ML & RACE plays for Sunday. PLAYER PROPS & LONGSHOT TD PROPS EARLY Matthew Stafford O2.5 pass TD's +180 - this one's about MIN's pass funnel D, nothing's changed here. For those odds, gotta take a stab, even if it's no better than a 50-50 play. Josh Allen O36.5 rush yards - this one's about how to attack NE's D. I would expect at least 7-8 designed Allen runs, and that doesn't account for when NE plays man D on pass downs, the potential for more Allen damage. Odell Beckham O46.5 rec yards - we all know Cooper Kupp is the man, but pretty clear OBJ is the #2 there (and he loooooves #2). Easy call vs. the pass funnel MIN D. Ja'Marr Chase O59.5 rec yards 2U - the BAL secondary is decimated, and Joe Mixon is banged up. I expect Chase to go 5/100, and a floor of 75+ yards, so this an easy 2U play. Russell Gage O5.5 catches +130 - again, I love guys who are target hogs, and that's Gage in the no-Calvin Ridley world. Against DET's pass D, sign me up. Kyle PItts O47.5 rec yards - this one might only need 3 catches to get it done, but I expect Pitts to be the #2 target hog for ATL against DET. Kene Nwangwu TD +800 / +10000 2+ (0.4U/0.2U) - with Dalvin Cook out of the game, gotta take a shot on this bottle of lightning at those odds. No sure thing, but the price is so good, for a guy who could also return the KO for a TD as well. LATE Only TD props so far for the 3 late games... Cole Kmet +550 / +6000 2+ (1.0U / 0.4U) - I'm going to take a much bigger stab, for 3 reasons. First, SEA's D vs. TE's is horrible. Secondly, Nick Foles peppers the TE. Finally, Kmet's been seeing a much bigger snap count and target share over time. I'll pray the OC is back, and HC Nagy doesn't take over playcalling. James Washington +1100 / +125000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - with all the attention Diontae Johnson, and with Pat Friermuth still in concussion protocol, Washington's snaps, and his RZ targets/snaps, have all returned. He's still the #3/#4 target there, but he's in the mix. And he's always a threat for Big Ben's 40 yard deep ball TD (not 50+ lol). He's almost certainly going to draw less attention than Diontae & Claypool, so have to take a shot at those odds. SNF Dak Prescott O2.5 pass TD's +190 - yes, he only threw for 1 passing TD 2 weeks ago. He also had 5 RZ drives, and missed guys who were open. WFT is still a pass funnel D, so I'll hit this up given the massive payout. Ceedee Lamb O5.5 catches +110 2U - going to the well as long as they offer plus money, and Amari Cooper & Michael Gallup both play - because that puts Lamb into the slot for 70+ percent of his snaps, and he's yet to be below 6 catches/80+ yards except for the 1 game he got hurt (when either of the other guys is out, and Cedrick Wilson plays, then Lamb goes outside a lot more, and he's not always hit 6+ catches). Another 2U play. I'll also play a 0.5U parley for 6 of the 8 player plays above (not taking Stafford or Dak, but going the others) for +6600. YOLO! This brings me to 11.0U in player props and 3.0U for longshot TD props for Sunday's slate so far... This runs my card at 22.0U for Sunday, including the 2 monster +6200 0.5U parleys that need CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF ML & CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / JAX ML. So a big early slate, but hoping for more $$ with the other single game plays, and the player props. BOL! 2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 ATS 47-41; 12-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +42.0U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15). Player props - 151-143, +38.8U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U) TD - 19-67, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10, and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +42.9U profit so far Net balance: +123.7U (Week 1 - +43.8U Week 2 - -1.6U. Week 3 - -1.3U Week 4 - +12.2U Week 5 - +9.0U Week 6 - +8.2U Week 7 - +15.7U Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch> Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U Week 16 up to Sunday - +0.4U) Teach my your ways I hit the Chase bests, Rams-3. Missed Gage. The work you put in is amazing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 OK put in for Cole Kmet live O35.5 rec yards 4.4U to win 4U. SEA is awful at TE pass D. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 54 minutes ago, Broncofan said: OK put in for Cole Kmet live O35.5 rec yards 4.4U to win 4U. SEA is awful at TE pass D. Lets go Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: Logged in late today so didn’t get a chance to do too much homework on player props. Ended up blindly tailing BF‘s Chase pick. Here’s the other two I did: Jake Fromm U194.5 Passing - This line feels far too high. Against a shutdown Philly pass defense. We’ve recently seen similar guys like Mullens and Gilbert struggle to approach this number. Kenny Golladay U40.5 Receiving - Same logic here, but I’m gonna pick on Kenny as the odd man out. He struggles to generate separation which a game managing QB like Fromm will want to avoid. He also draws Slay coverage who should be able to handle him. I also have this Teaser: TB|CAR U51 / LAC-2.5 / BUF+10 / LV|DEN U49.5 for 2U Teaser unfortunately falls due to Chargers loss. Fromm and Golladay easily hit. Chase easily hit (thanks BF). ✅✅✅ Afternoon plays: DMontgomery O18.5 Receiving -110 DMontgomery TD +130 TLockett O59.5 Receiving -110 CClaypool O43.5 Receiving -110 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 PIT + 26.5? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 4 minutes ago, twslhs20 said: PIT + 26.5? I personally have a rule for “no live betting”. I just find it’s a really easy way to lose money off of a “gut feeling” rather than sound process. There is of course exceptions to every rule, so if you’re incredibly confident in PIT picking up their play, go for it. Side note: Another rule of mine is to never bet on certain teams. Jaguars and Bears are good examples. Funny enough, the Big Ben Steelers are recently on that list for me. That offense is bipolar. Just another reason why I would not personally advocate for that bet. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 1 minute ago, SaveOurSonics said: I personally have a rule for “no live betting”. I just find it’s a really easy way to lose money off of a “gut feeling” rather than sound process. There is of course exceptions to every rule, so if you’re incredibly confident in PIT picking up their play, go for it. Side note: Another rule of mine is to never bet on certain teams. Jaguars and Bears are good examples. Funny enough, the Big Ben Steelers are recently on that list for me. That offense is bipolar. Just another reason why I would not personally advocate for that bet. My though process is that KC will pull there starters eventually and if the line gets too obscene I imagine PIT can beat the KC backups. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted December 26, 2021 Share Posted December 26, 2021 2 hours ago, Broncofan said: OK put in for Cole Kmet live O35.5 rec yards 4.4U to win 4U. SEA is awful at TE pass D. Nice hit. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 missed Najee 24.5 rec yards and James Washington anytime tud. Hit Pit +30 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said: Teaser unfortunately falls due to Chargers loss. Fromm and Golladay easily hit. Chase easily hit (thanks BF). ✅✅✅ Afternoon plays: DMontgomery O18.5 Receiving -110 DMontgomery TD +130 TLockett O59.5 Receiving -110 CClaypool O43.5 Receiving -110 Bummer. 2 for 4 here. DMont hits both pretty easily. Lockett was a bad bet considering the snow, but Russell also just missed him on several patented deep balls. The Claypool line misses after he started the 3Q with 38 yards 🤦♂️ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 (edited) Alright let's talk night game. I'm expecting a squeaky wheel game out of Amari Cooper after his comments this week that the offense needs a spark. I'll be playing both.... Cooper O4.5 Receptions +100 1.5U Cooper O54.5 Receiving -110 1U Still looking through other potential plays. Edited December 27, 2021 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Had fun with a alt line prop parlay last week so gonna throw 0.5U on another one tonight. Dak O23.5 Completions + Lamb O4.5 Receptions + Lamb O54.5 Receiving + Seals-Jones O1.5 Receptions + Seals-Jones O17.5 Receiving +150 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 (edited) I am tailing @Broncofan tonight except I'm doing ceedee over 64.5 yards. They should have the lead and the cowboys love to run the ball, so I don't want to have to hope for the cowboys to call a lot of passing plays, but rather for ceedee to get down the field on play action taking over Dak touchdowns and yards. I think it is a solid spot for Dak to have a bounce back game but I don't want to rely on Dallas throwing for volume, rather for efficiency when they do pass most of all, I like the Heineke over 20.5 completions. He is a timing qb and they will want him to get rid of it quickly to avoid the Dallas pass rush. If they are losing, they will need to throw a lot. Should be easy to get over 20.5 teaser with Dallas -3, under 53 Edited December 27, 2021 by N4L Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 Thoughts on O-52.3 rush yards and O 16.5 rec yards? Also like O 3.5 rec for Zeke Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twslhs20 Posted December 27, 2021 Share Posted December 27, 2021 1 minute ago, twslhs20 said: Thoughts on O-52.3 rush yards and O 16.5 rec yards? Also like O 3.5 rec for Zeke all these are zeke plays Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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