Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, agarcia34 said:

Got a fun SGP for 25 to win 825 +3300

49ers ML/Bullock over 5.5 kicking points/Kittle receptions over 5.5/Deebo rushing yards over 33.5/Deebo over 48.5 rec yards/No int for Jimmy. 
 

Should have a a chance 

Fun fact - JimmyG has a pick in all 5 L’s (Lance played in the other L).  If you ever take SF opponent it’s probably worth it to combo it up with a SGP of JimmyG int / opponent ML.  
 

On the flip side if you go SF ML I believe he’s only thrown a pick in 2/8 games.   So there’s decent correlation. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Alright here’s my card for the night. 

 

SF+4 / U51 Teaser (-120) 2U 

SF/TEN 1H U21.5 (+100) 1U

Jauan Jennings O19.5 Receiving (-110) 1U 

Ryan Tannehill O16.5 Rushing (-105) 1U 

Ryan Tannehill U216.5 Passing (-110) 1U

D’Onta Foreman U52.5 Rushing (-110) 1.5U 

SGP Tannehill O18.5 Completions / Jennings O1.5 Receptions / Jennings O12.5 Receiving (+130) 1.5U

I actually hate both of my single play Tannehill props. Idk why I was thinking AJB just wouldn’t play, so I locked both of those in yesterday. I decided the SGP was an interesting way to hedge on Tannehill having a better game with his arm than I anticipated. 

[Broncofan]

Live bet Foreman halftime O21.5 rush yards for 4U, YOLO lol...

Edited December 24, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

3 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

SF+4 / U51 Teaser (-120) 2U 

SF/TEN 1H U21.5 (+100) 1U

Jauan Jennings O19.5 Receiving (-110) 1U 

Ryan Tannehill O16.5 Rushing (-105) 1U 

Ryan Tannehill U216.5 Passing (-110) 1U

D’Onta Foreman U52.5 Rushing (-110) 1.5U 

SGP Tannehill O18.5 Completions / Jennings O1.5 Receptions / Jennings O12.5 Receiving (+130) 1.5U

How about a 6-1 night? Literally 1 yard from Jauan Jennings away from 7-0. Unbelievable. He also dropped a ball and was wide open on the Aiyuk TD (if Aiyuk wasn’t so blatantly open, Jennings gets that ball). 

+7U 

[Broncofan]

5 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

How about a 6-1 night? Literally 1 yard from Jauan Jennings away from 7-0. Unbelievable. He also dropped a ball and was wide open on the Aiyuk TD (if Aiyuk wasn’t so blatantly open, Jennings gets that ball). 

+7U 

Awesome work - sadly I had the reverse with a -7U night, my live bet with D'Onta Foreman O21.5 yards was a back breaker - with that very iffy penalty in the 1H, figured he'd break 1 more (still would have given you the under too lol).    At least I got the Foreman TD lol.   

Tanny O16.5 & TEN +3.5U were very nice, not just because I could have been skunked .... but it also keeps those 2 7-leg parleys at +6200 alive with LAR -6 / PHI -8 / TEN +3.5 now all hitting, and leaves it down to IND ML / LAR -3 (which I feel great about with the MIN Covid-19 situation, it's not just Cook, it's who is coming next) / CIN -2.5 (still like it a lot) / JAX ML (yes it scares me, but Jets are a worse team and ravaged by Covid as well) in 1 leg and IND ML / LAR -3 / CIN -2.5 / BUF ML in the other parley, both for 0.5U (which with NE WR's all out, makes it easy for them to do what they did in 2H of prior game and just stack box, and dare Mac Jones to beat them).

4 more yards easily attainable with a rush, and no drop by Jennings, and I'm looking at a +3U night instead of -7U, but that's the risk we take.    On to Christmas NF with IND ML baby!

[NYRaider]

Kyle Shanahan is a fraud

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, NYRaider said:

Kyle Shanahan is a fraud

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Fun fact - JimmyG has a pick in all 5 L’s (Lance played in the other L).  If you ever take SF opponent it’s probably worth it to combo it up with a SGP of JimmyG int / opponent ML.  
 

On the flip side if you go SF ML I believe he’s only thrown a pick in 2/8 games.   So there’s decent correlation. 

Shanahan’s biggest problem is that he’s not great at making adjustments once teams figure out how to counter his game plan.   But he’s amazing at building a diverse scheme and setting up a plan to help his O succeed.   Truthfully SF should have been up 20-0 minimum and maybe 24-0 at halftime.    He didn’t adjust when TEN got the momentum back but he had them set up to run away with that game before the TEN D and O knew what hit them. 
 

This one falls on JimmyG.   Those 2 TO’s were game changers.  And his awful play was the difference.   Even the comeback drive was fueled by Deebo YAC and a wide open Aiyuk.   Not because JimmyG brought them back.  
 

I’ll say it again - I can’t explain it, but since Vrabel took over as HC, TEN as a home dog always overachieves. SF should have won the game on paper.   But my only guess is that TEN is so well coached they don’t beat themselves as a dog and that lets them hang around if the favorite makes mistakes.   It’s why I either back TEN as a home dog or I just fade that game altogether.  

Edited December 24, 2021 by Broncofan

[NYRaider]

22 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

 

Shanahan’s biggest problem is that he’s not great at making adjustments once teams figure out how to counter his game plan.   But he’s amazing at building a diverse scheme and setting up a plan to help his O succeed.   Truthfully SF should have been up 20-0 minimum and maybe 24-0 at halftime.    He didn’t adjust when TEN got the momentum back but he had them set up to run away with that game before the TEN D and O knew what hit them. 

Sounds exactly like his mentor, Jon Gruden. We were good on our first couple of drives when we could follow the game script but were terrible when we had to make adjustments under Gruden.

[Broncofan]

Happy Holidays!

My book just released a free parley for Xmas, so I'm going with:

IND ML +120 / CIN -220 / JAX +110 / BUF +120 / LV -110 / MIA -140 for 40-1 1U play (but again, this one's a freebie).    Not as crazy about IND because they lost their IOL, but their backups have been decent (just only 2 have started together before, not all 3).   Still, it's a freebie, and I liked the other 5 picks, so why not if it's free.   

BOL!

 

[Broncofan]

For GB - CLE 5 plays in: 

Total O5.5 TD’s +130.  I like the O46.5 and would have gone as high as O48.5.   To get there 6+ TD needed 90+ Percent of time.   So I’ll take the better payout for the small risk.   
 

Aaron Rodgers O2.5 pass TD +180 & Baker Mayfield O2.5 pass TD +160 - if I like the over I’m taking these 2 props.   CLE much easier to attack in the air and until Jaire Alexander returns the same holds for GB D esp if you have an OL that can protect the QB. 
 

Jarvis Landry O5.5 catches +120 - target hog I’ll take this at plus money. 
 

Rashad Higgins +800 TD / +110000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - as he’s the #3 WR even with the TE’s back just better odds he’ll see 1-2 RZ targets in a high scoring game.   More weighted on the single TD obv. 

[Broncofan]

For the IND game 4 plays besides the IND ML / RACE’s I locked in earlier this week: 

Jonathan Taylor O97.5 yards 2U - self explanatory  

Zach Ertz O4.5 catches +110 2U - IND without Leonard and Willis should let Ertz thrive.   

Carson Wentz O0.5 INT +110 - more IOL pressure more risk.  Also like it as a hedge against the IND ML but could still hit both  

Carson Wentz TD +600 / +8000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - lot more RPO expected so I’ll take the shot.  
 

BOL! 

Edited December 26, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For GB - CLE 5 plays in: 

Total O5.5 TD’s +130.  I like the O46.5 and would have gone as high as O48.5.   To get there 6+ TD needed 90+ Percent of time.   So I’ll take the better payout for the small risk.   
 

Aaron Rodgers O2.5 pass TD +180 & Baker Mayfield O2.5 pass TD +160 - if I like the over I’m taking these 2 props.   CLE much easier to attack in the air and until Jaire Alexander returns the same holds for GB D esp if you have an OL that can protect the QB. 
 

Jarvis Landry O5.5 catches +120 - target hog I’ll take this at plus money. 
 

Rashad Higgins +800 TD / +110000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - as he’s the #3 WR even with the TE’s back just better odds he’ll see 1-2 RZ targets in a high scoring game.   More weighted on the single TD obv. 

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

For the IND game 4 plays besides the IND ML / RACE’s I locked in earlier this week: 

Jonathan Taylor O97.5 yards 2U - self explanatory  

Zach Ertz O4.5 catches +110 2U - IND without Leonard and Willis should let Ertz thrive.   

Carson Wentz O0.5 INT +110 - more IOL pressure more risk.  Also like it as a hedge against the IND ML but could still hit both  

Carson Wentz TD +600 / +8000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - lot more RPO expected so I’ll take the shot.  
 

BOL! 

Well tonight was a beautiful turnaround as I won IND ML +100 (before the Covid absences hit), IND ML +140 I couldn't pass up today, and the RACE to 20 +200 0.5U (lost the 25/30 for 1U), so a nice +2.5U on the ATS/ML, along with CLE/GB O5.5 TD's +130, that makes for a nice +3.8U profit on the ATS/ML/RACETeam plays. 

Player prop-wise, I missed both Wentz INT & TD props (although he really made an INT-worthy play that somehow got dropped on the the 1st, and then got called for DPI on the 2nd - huge turnaround play; TD-wise his run to the 1 was called back by a hold, otherwise no real shots), and I missed on the Landry O5.5 catch & Higgins TD prop (stopped at the 1 yard line!  Soooo close).    But A-Rod O2.5 +180 and Baker O1.5 +160 & Ertz O4.5 +110 2U and Taylor O97.5 rush yards 2U both hit comfortably, so that's a 3.6U profit on Player / Longshot TD props.

After a disastrous -7U TNF, this 7.4U profit gets me back to 0.4U profit for Week 16 so far (LOL).   More importantly, my 2 7-leg parleys are now 4/4 with IND ML, and have CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF ML & CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / JAX ML which both pay out 0.5U +6200....so a MASSIVE CIN / LAR / JAX / BUF fan for the early games tomorrow (didn't like any of the late games other than LV, so don't have the usual hedge out option, will have to follow live & see if 1 game is at risk and maybe hedge there).   BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 

ATS 47-41; 12-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +42.0U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15). 

Player props - 151-143, +38.8U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-67, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +42.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +123.7U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 up to Sunday - +0.4U)

 

Edited December 26, 2021 by Broncofan

[twslhs20]

Holy crap you guys take this seriously. I need a crash course in betting properly apparently.

I made some nice coin on Colts +3 after losing LV -3 vs CLE

 

[Broncofan]

On 12/21/2021 at 11:26 PM, Broncofan said:

OK 2 plays already booked in ATS, and some early leans:

PIT +10 @ KC (pre-Covid) - I got this 2 mins before the book closed it down.  Tried to get it into a parley but the book locked me out then (Dammit!).    Pretty self-explanatory

LAR -3 @ MIN - got this before the game, and for 1 simple reason - the Rams are likely clear of any major Covid losses, having gone through a mini-wave.   I know their roster should be stable.   I already like the line for LAR, but I also now have the security that their Covid risk is pretty benign.    MIN is at risk along with every other team that hasn't had a big wave.   That, along with LAR being at a critical number, is enough for me to take now.

TEN +3.5 vs. SF (TNF) - I know, this seems crazy, right?  Well consider this - the Titans are monsters as home dogs, and this is a typical situation.  The Niners' still have one the highest penalized D's, and their O is still mistake prone.  The talent gap means I won't take TEN straight up, but as it's over 3 pts, I'll back the trends, and the excellent coaching work the TEN staff does (the only reason they lost last week was literally turning it over 4x in a 10-offensive play sequence.  I don't see that happening with the SF D). 

IND +100 ML @ ARI (already -110), RACE to 25/30/35 (+175/+300/+450) SAT PM - I do not get this at all.   Indy's run game is exactly the type of O that gives ARI's D fits, ever since they lost JJ Watt.   And the D has Leonard who can spy Murray, and now Conner is hurt.  The team's pass O was totally lost without Nuk Hopkins being the alpha, which negates IND's weakness (secondary CB's) a LOT.    I think the line's going to move to IND unless they go through a Covid wave.   Willing to take it given the payouts for what I think is the wrong team being favored, I'd have IND as a clear -2 to -3 right now.

JAX +130 ML vs. NYJ - I know, I know, it's the Jags.  And they absolutely laid a dud against HOU (for which it paid off nicely even though Urban Meyer's firing had me unnerved).   But there are 3 main reasons I back JAX.  First off, the Jets are the worst run D.  Second, they lost their only remaining playmaker, Michael Carter, to Covid-list, and that's a concern more are coming.   Finally, as bad Trevor Lawrence has been, Zach Wilson and the Jets O have been far worse.   Finally, the Jets OC Mike Lafleur looks completely lost.  I'm not convinced enough to take RACE's, given how inept both teams are, but I'll sit on this for a bit, and settle on the ML. 

CIN -2.5 vs. BAL - this is a matchup that the Bengals just have so many edges on the current version of BAL's team.   The Bengals will likely get their T Prince back, and should get CB Chibode Awuzie back.   It sounds like Joe Mixon will play, and that combo with BAL continuing to lose more CB's, is just a bad combo here.

I couldn't get PIT+10 in parleys, but I was able to secure a LAR-7 / PHI -8 / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML +100 / LAR -3 / CIN -2.5 / JAX ML +130 for +6200 0.5U and LAR -7 / PHI -8 / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML +100 / LAR -3 / CIN -2.5 / BUF ML +130 0.5U for +6200 0.5U as well.   Just wanted a bite of BUF +ML for now.

The IND ML/RACE's, PIT +10 & LAR-3 single-bet picks are locked in, while I have the other 3 in the parleys above, where I think I can wait on the line for now.    Will post more TNF & ATS/ML / RACE plays as more info emerges.....

 

So I'm a HUGE fan of CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / JAX +130 ML / BUF +130 ML as these pay out 2 parleys for a total of +6200 1.0U LOL.   But it's still a full card, so here are my Sunday Week 16 plays:

ATS/ML/RACE (0.5U for each RACE)

EARLY

CIN -2.5 vs. BAL - explained above

LAR -3 @ MIN - the early travel worries me, as does MIN's ability to play 1-score games, but I think LAR has the NFCW now in their sights with ARI's loss, and won't let this one slip. 

JAX +130 vs. NYJ, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) - explained above

BUF +130 @ NE - with the NE WR and RB corps decimated (Ramondre Stephenson & Nelson Agholor Covid,  Bourne just cleared, and Damien Harris iffy with the hammy injury) - this is an even more limited O that BUF D has to defend against.   And there won't be bad weather for Josh Allen to operate in vs. the NE D, and thus play to his strengths.   I'll take BUF here, although I hope OC Brian Daboll gets over his play calling funk that he was in pre-CAR game (which isn't really a great test).

LATE

LV +100 ML vs. DEN, RACE to 20/25 (+160/+300) - now this could sideways in a hurry if DEN can get an early lead.  But Drew Lock, while helping add some gunslinger to the DEN pass O - also adds a ton of mistake/TO potential.   LV seems to have DEN's number, they're 5-1 vs. Vic Fangio, so I'm happy to back a pick 'em call here.

Along with my 2 0.5U 7-leg parleys at +6200 which have CIN -2.5, LAR-3, BUF ML & CIN-2.5, LAR-3, JAX ML left - that's 8.0U in ATS/ML & RACE plays for Sunday. 

PLAYER PROPS & LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Matthew Stafford O2.5 pass TD's +180 - this one's about MIN's pass funnel D, nothing's changed here.   For those odds, gotta take a stab, even if it's no better than a 50-50 play. 

Josh Allen O36.5 rush yards - this one's about how to attack NE's D.   I would expect at least 7-8 designed Allen runs, and that doesn't account for when NE plays man D on pass downs, the potential for more Allen damage.

Odell Beckham O46.5 rec yards - we all know Cooper Kupp is the man, but pretty clear OBJ is the #2 there (and he loooooves #2).   Easy call vs. the pass funnel MIN D.

Ja'Marr Chase O59.5 rec yards 2U - the BAL secondary is decimated, and Joe Mixon is banged up.    I expect Chase to go 5/100, and a floor of 75+ yards, so this an easy 2U play.

Russell Gage O5.5 catches +130 - again, I love guys who are target hogs, and that's Gage in the no-Calvin Ridley world.  Against DET's pass D, sign me up.

Kyle PItts O47.5 rec yards - this one might only need 3 catches to get it done, but I expect Pitts to be the #2 target hog for ATL against DET. 

Kene Nwangwu TD +800 / +10000 2+ (0.4U/0.2U) - with Dalvin Cook out of the game, gotta take a shot on this bottle of lightning at those odds.   No sure thing, but the price is so good, for a guy who could also return the KO for a TD as well.

LATE

Only TD props so far for the 3 late games...

Cole Kmet +550 / +6000 2+ (1.0U / 0.4U) - I'm going to take a much bigger stab, for 3 reasons.  First, SEA's D vs. TE's is horrible.   Secondly, Nick Foles peppers the TE.  Finally, Kmet's been seeing a much bigger snap count and target share over time.  I'll pray the OC is back, and HC Nagy doesn't take over playcalling.

James Washington +1100 / +125000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - with all the attention Diontae Johnson, and with Pat Friermuth still in concussion protocol, Washington's snaps, and his RZ targets/snaps, have all returned.  He's still the #3/#4 target there, but he's in the mix.  And he's always a threat for Big Ben's 40 yard deep ball TD (not 50+ lol).    He's almost certainly going to draw less attention than Diontae & Claypool, so have to take a shot at those odds.

 

SNF

Dak Prescott O2.5 pass TD's +190 - yes, he only threw for 1 passing TD 2 weeks ago.  He also had 5 RZ drives, and missed guys who were open.   WFT is still a pass funnel D, so I'll hit this up given the massive payout.

Ceedee Lamb O5.5 catches +110 2U - going to the well as long as they offer plus money, and Amari Cooper & Michael Gallup both play - because that puts Lamb into the slot for 70+ percent of his snaps, and he's yet to be below 6 catches/80+ yards except for the 1 game he got hurt (when either of the other guys is out, and Cedrick Wilson plays, then Lamb goes outside a lot more, and he's not always hit 6+ catches).   Another 2U play.

I'll also play a 0.5U parley for 6 of the 8 player plays above (not taking Stafford or Dak, but going the others) for +6600.   YOLO!   This brings me to 11.0U in player props and 3.0U for longshot TD props for Sunday's slate so far...

This runs my card at 22.0U for Sunday, including the 2 monster +6200 0.5U parleys that need CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF ML & CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / JAX ML.  So a big early slate, but hoping for more $$ with the other single game plays, and the player props.  BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 

ATS 47-41; 12-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +42.0U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15). 

Player props - 151-143, +38.8U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-67, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +42.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +123.7U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 up to Sunday - +0.4U)

[SaveOurSonics]

Logged in late today so didn’t get a chance to do too much homework on player props. 

Ended up blindly tailing BF‘s Chase pick. Here’s the other two I did: 

Jake Fromm U194.5 Passing - This line feels far too high. Against a shutdown Philly pass defense. We’ve recently seen similar guys like Mullens and Gilbert struggle to approach this number. 

Kenny Golladay U40.5 Receiving - Same logic here, but I’m gonna pick on Kenny as the odd man out. He struggles to generate separation which a game managing QB like Fromm will want to avoid. He also draws Slay coverage who should be able to handle him. 

 

I also have this Teaser:

TB|CAR U51 / LAC-2.5 / BUF+10 / LV|DEN U49.5 for 2U 

Edited December 26, 2021 by SaveOurSonics