Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

Alright last play for me. I've made decent money on WFT TE props this year and I'll look to keep that going today. The Cowboys effectively shutdown McLaurin last time around, and I expect similar results in this rematch against Diggs. Additionally, Scherff remains out, limiting the talent on the line. That means there should be A) plenty of opportunities for other pass catchers and B) plenty of dump off / outlet type routes, which is exactly how Rivera uses his TEs. This is one that I would expect to hit whether WFT loses or pulls off the upset. 

 

Seals-Jones O2.5 Receptions (-115) 1U

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Alright let's talk night game. 

 

I'm expecting a squeaky wheel game out of Amari Cooper after his comments this week that the offense needs a spark. I'll be playing both....

Cooper O4.5 Receptions +100 1.5U

Cooper O54.5 Receiving -110 1U

 

Still looking through other potential plays. 

We love a 1H hit ✅✅ The squeaky wheel treatment was certainly there. 

Really relying on RSJ to make this a good night. 

[Broncofan]

On 12/26/2021 at 1:39 AM, Broncofan said:

 

So I'm a HUGE fan of CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / JAX +130 ML / BUF +130 ML as these pay out 2 parleys for a total of +6200 1.0U LOL.   But it's still a full card, so here are my Sunday Week 16 plays:

ATS/ML/RACE (0.5U for each RACE)

EARLY

CIN -2.5 vs. BAL - explained above

LAR -3 @ MIN - the early travel worries me, as does MIN's ability to play 1-score games, but I think LAR has the NFCW now in their sights with ARI's loss, and won't let this one slip. 

JAX +130 vs. NYJ, RACE to 20/25 (+200/+350) - explained above

BUF +130 @ NE - with the NE WR and RB corps decimated (Ramondre Stephenson & Nelson Agholor Covid,  Bourne just cleared, and Damien Harris iffy with the hammy injury) - this is an even more limited O that BUF D has to defend against.   And there won't be bad weather for Josh Allen to operate in vs. the NE D, and thus play to his strengths.   I'll take BUF here, although I hope OC Brian Daboll gets over his play calling funk that he was in pre-CAR game (which isn't really a great test).

LATE

LV +100 ML vs. DEN, RACE to 20/25 (+160/+300) - now this could sideways in a hurry if DEN can get an early lead.  But Drew Lock, while helping add some gunslinger to the DEN pass O - also adds a ton of mistake/TO potential.   LV seems to have DEN's number, they're 5-1 vs. Vic Fangio, so I'm happy to back a pick 'em call here.

Along with my 2 0.5U 7-leg parleys at +6200 which have CIN -2.5, LAR-3, BUF ML & CIN-2.5, LAR-3, JAX ML left - that's 8.0U in ATS/ML & RACE plays for Sunday. 

PLAYER PROPS & LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Matthew Stafford O2.5 pass TD's +180 - this one's about MIN's pass funnel D, nothing's changed here.   For those odds, gotta take a stab, even if it's no better than a 50-50 play. 

Josh Allen O36.5 rush yards - this one's about how to attack NE's D.   I would expect at least 7-8 designed Allen runs, and that doesn't account for when NE plays man D on pass downs, the potential for more Allen damage.

Odell Beckham O46.5 rec yards - we all know Cooper Kupp is the man, but pretty clear OBJ is the #2 there (and he loooooves #2).   Easy call vs. the pass funnel MIN D.

Ja'Marr Chase O59.5 rec yards 2U - the BAL secondary is decimated, and Joe Mixon is banged up.    I expect Chase to go 5/100, and a floor of 75+ yards, so this an easy 2U play.

Russell Gage O5.5 catches +130 - again, I love guys who are target hogs, and that's Gage in the no-Calvin Ridley world.  Against DET's pass D, sign me up.

Kyle PItts O47.5 rec yards - this one might only need 3 catches to get it done, but I expect Pitts to be the #2 target hog for ATL against DET. 

Kene Nwangwu TD +800 / +10000 2+ (0.4U/0.2U) - with Dalvin Cook out of the game, gotta take a shot on this bottle of lightning at those odds.   No sure thing, but the price is so good, for a guy who could also return the KO for a TD as well.

LATE

Only TD props so far for the 3 late games...

Cole Kmet +550 / +6000 2+ (1.0U / 0.4U) - I'm going to take a much bigger stab, for 3 reasons.  First, SEA's D vs. TE's is horrible.   Secondly, Nick Foles peppers the TE.  Finally, Kmet's been seeing a much bigger snap count and target share over time.  I'll pray the OC is back, and HC Nagy doesn't take over playcalling.

James Washington +1100 / +125000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - with all the attention Diontae Johnson, and with Pat Friermuth still in concussion protocol, Washington's snaps, and his RZ targets/snaps, have all returned.  He's still the #3/#4 target there, but he's in the mix.  And he's always a threat for Big Ben's 40 yard deep ball TD (not 50+ lol).    He's almost certainly going to draw less attention than Diontae & Claypool, so have to take a shot at those odds.

EDIT:  Added Cole Kmet O35.5 rec yards (see earlier post) 4.4U to win 4U - live in-game bet (caught up in early games)

SNF

Dak Prescott O2.5 pass TD's +190 - yes, he only threw for 1 passing TD 2 weeks ago.  He also had 5 RZ drives, and missed guys who were open.   WFT is still a pass funnel D, so I'll hit this up given the massive payout.

Ceedee Lamb O5.5 catches +110 2U - going to the well as long as they offer plus money, and Amari Cooper & Michael Gallup both play - because that puts Lamb into the slot for 70+ percent of his snaps, and he's yet to be below 6 catches/80+ yards except for the 1 game he got hurt (when either of the other guys is out, and Cedrick Wilson plays, then Lamb goes outside a lot more, and he's not always hit 6+ catches).   Another 2U play.

I'll also play a 0.5U parley for 6 of the 8 player plays above (not taking Stafford or Dak, but going the others) for +6600.   YOLO!   This brings me to 11.0U in player props and 3.0U for longshot TD props for Sunday's slate so far...

This runs my card at 22.0U for Sunday, including the 2 monster +6200 0.5U parleys that need CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF ML & CIN -2.5 / LAR -3 / JAX ML.  So a big early slate, but hoping for more $$ with the other single game plays, and the player props.  BOL!

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 

ATS 47-41; 12-16 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +42.0U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15). 

Player props - 151-143, +38.8U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-67, but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +42.9U profit so far 

Net balance:  +123.7U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 up to Sunday - +0.4U)

Game script prevents Ceedee Lamb from getting 2 more catches after 4 in the 1H before DAL pulls their starters, but one helluva Sunday....hit 1 of 2 7-leg parleys for 0.5U +6200 (LAR-7 / PHI -8.5 on TuesNF, TEN +3.5 TNF, IND +100 ML SatNF, and of course, LAR-3 / CIN -2.5 / BUF +130 ML, and was THAT close to the 2nd parley, with JAX +130 ML - damn you Darrell Bevell/Trevor Lawrence 3rd down spike!).   That already hits me in the ATS/ML/RACE's for +31.0U.

As for the rest of today's plays:

WEEK 16 SUNDAY

ATS/ML/RACE - 4-1 ATS/ML with only JAX missing (SO CLOSE - but LAR -3, CIN -2.5, BUF +130 & LV ML's both win), 0-2 on RACE's (even though LV won) - +1.3U on single bets, but with the parley, +32.3U for Sunday (AWESOME!)

PLAYER PROPS - 5-4 (Stafford O2.5, Gage O5.5 & OBJ O45.5 missing and not close, Lamb 2U O5.5 bad break with 2Q zero), but with Kmet O35.5 rec yards 4.4U winning 4U, and my Chase O59.5 2U play hitting easily, along with Dak O2.5 pass TD's +190 and Pitts O47.5 rec yards / Allen O36.5 rush yards all easy winners - it's a nice 4.9U profit so far 

LONGSHOT TD PROPS - 0-3, Nwangu never got a serious look, both Kmet and Washington were targeted, but no joy.  -3.0U loss

Still, with Lamb 2 catches away from hitting, I'm sitting on a 34.2U profit (3.2U from the single bets and of course, that 31U 7-leg parley). 

 

2021 WEEK 1 - WEEK 15 

ATS 51-42; 12-18 with RACE to 15/20/25/30 (underdogs only), net +74.3U profit (taking dog ML & RACE's really pays off even though I'm only at around 50-50, because I'm going dog-heavy ML & RACE's, not just ATS and the MASSIVE +10.3U win by leveraging LV +180 ML and +3 1H U42 before news of the Covid wave that hit CLE Week 15, and now the 7-leg 0.5U +6200 Week 15/16 parley with LAR-7/PHI-8.5 TuesNF / TEN +3.5 TNF / IND ML SatNF / Cin-2.5 / LAR -3 / BUF +130 ML win). 

Player props - 152-143, +45.7U profit (thank you 8U on D'Ernst Johnson Week 7 TNF vs. DEN at +money, 4U J-Taylor on Week 7 SNF @ SF, 4U Damien Harris on Week 11 TNF @ ATL, and now Ceedee Lamb Week 13 TNF @ NO 8.4U to win 9.4U)

TD - 19-70 but playing all longshot TD props, with Corey Davis +3300 2-TD hitting Week 1 & now Pat Friermuth +2500 2-TD Week 10,  and Lil'jordan Humphrey +1400 2U Week 13, makes this a +39.9U profit so far. 

Net balance:  +157.9U

(Week 1 - +43.8U     Week 2 - -1.6U.    Week 3 - -1.3U     Week 4 - +12.2U   Week 5 - +9.0U  Week 6 - +8.2U   Week 7 - +15.7U  Week 8 - -18.6U <ouch>  Week 9 - +13.8U Week 10 - -4.6U Week 11 - +5.9U Week 12 - -20.5U <ugh>, Week 13 - +33.1U, Week 14 - +17.6U Week 15 - +9.6U  Week 16 up to Sunday - +34.6U)

Edited December 27, 2021 by Broncofan
Lamb 2U O5.5 misses given the blowout, way it goes - adjusted lines, still a great week 16 thanks to that 7-leg ATS/ML parley

[SmittyBacall]

Looking ahead to next weeks slate early, this is what jumps out:

1.) KC@CIN over 49.0 - I don’t anticipate us stopping this KC offense. They are rolling right now and we are giving up a ton of space on defense currently with little pass rush outside of Hendrickson. Our offense should keep pace.

2.) NYG@CHI under 38.0 - Glennon/Fromm versus Dalton/Foles. Two solid defenses. Need I say more? I can see this going 3-3 into halftime.

3.) DEN +6 @LAC - @Broncofan can verify this for me. Even with Lock potentially starting again with Bridgewater in concussion protocol, I still like DEN to have a shot at winning here. LAC is struggling ATM and simply cannot stop the run. Will likely alt this to +7.

[Broncofan]

3 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Looking ahead to next weeks slate early, this is what jumps out:

1.) KC@CIN over 49.0 - I don’t anticipate us stopping this KC offense. They are rolling right now and we are giving up a ton of space on defense currently with little pass rush outside of Hendrickson. Our offense should keep pace.

2.) NYG@CHI under 38.0 - Glennon/Fromm versus Dalton/Foles. Two solid defenses. Need I say more? I can see this going 3-3 into halftime.

3.) DEN +6 @LAC - @Broncofan can verify this for me. Even with Lock potentially starting again with Bridgewater in concussion protocol, I still like DEN to have a shot at winning here. LAC is struggling ATM and simply cannot stop the run. Will likely alt this to +7.

I wouldn't bet the DEN ML at all right now - we do a good job vs. LAC, but there's a mutiny brewing on the D, they are rightfully p***ed.   I can definitely back taking the points, though.   Just keep in mind our W against LAC was predicated on us being +3 in the TO game, if you count 4th down stops, which I do (since the ball turns over with no loss of field position, same effect).   Our improbable W's vs. DAL were with us being +5 in the TO / stopping on 4th down, and +3 vs. LAC.    LAC's got issues, but if it's a TO-neutral script, they're winning by 3+, but I like the 7 pt threshold for sure.

 

[SaveOurSonics]

Looking ahead. I already locked in MIA+10 / U47.5 Teaser. Also just locked in Ian Book O23.5 Rushing (-110). Book isn’t afraid to take off and run. The Miami secondary has been shutdown as of late so I expect Book to be forced to extend plays. There’s virtually no one behind Book, so I’m also not too concerned about a mid-game benching. 

[twslhs20]

git Gibson o rec yards. Missed Zeke and Lamn props. Missed live betting WAS +36.5

Lesson learned.

[twslhs20]

Any books or stuff to educate me on all of this? You all seem to to have a trusted process.

[twslhs20]

18 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Looking ahead. I already locked in MIA+10 / U47.5 Teaser. Also just locked in Ian Book O23.5 Rushing (-110). Book isn’t afraid to take off and run. The Miami secondary has been shutdown as of late so I expect Book to be forced to extend plays. There’s virtually no one behind Book, so I’m also not too concerned about a mid-game benching. 

MIA -3 now. Wonder what the giant swing was about.

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, twslhs20 said:

MIA -3 now. Wonder what the giant swing was about.

Google Saints Covid.   

[Broncofan]

OK for tomorrow night, 3 small TD plays, and 1 2U player prop I'm locking in right now because I only see ppl taking the over as time goes by:

-Alvin Kamara O24.5 receving yards 2.2U to win 2U - with a rookie QB making his first start, I expect screens and swing passes to be there, especially on 2nd / 3rd and long.   There's no catch prop, but looking at the yardage, it's at least 10 yards too low IMO.

-Mack Hollins +500 TD (0.6U) - all the attention goes to Parker & Waddle, but he's usually out there when it's a throwing down in near the GL.    

EDIT:  ADDED MON AFTERNOON - Mike Gesicki O4.5 catches +130 - see writeup later on page 168, Dec. 27 2 PM

EDIT:  ADDED MON AFTERNOON - Trequan Smith O2.5 catches 2.U to win 2U - see writeup later on page 168, Dec 27 2 PM

-Lil'Jordan Humphrey +900 TD / +12500 2+ (1.0U / 0.4U) - this reflects the fact that NO is down to only Nick Vannett as their TO, so they like to have big body targets in the RZ.    We've already seen him score on prime time vs. DAL, and he’s now the de facto move TE.  So I'm not passing up the great +900 odds here - but given it's Ian Book's first start, I'm not going 2U like I did on TNF, but a slightly bigger play (that's offset by only taking a small stab on Mack Hollins).

-Nick Vannett +750 TD / +11000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - did I mention Vannett?   Can't leave him off, this is my way to hedge on the most likely big bodies for tonight (and the boundary CB's taking out the outside WR's).

EDIT:  Added Mike Gesicki +300 TD / +2500 2+ for 0.8U/0.2U

EDIT:  Also including for the card the MIA ML +150 2U play and the RACE to 20/25 (+240/+450) I was able to get last Monday just as news of a NO outbreak was on Twitter, before the line went down.

That's 5U 12.2U I have so far for MNF, I'll look at the other props when they come out.   BOL!

Edited December 27, 2021 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, twslhs20 said:

Any books or stuff to educate me on all of this? You all seem to to have a trusted process.

A lot of trial and error and picking up what works from other people. I’ve personally learned that establishing “rules” for yourself is a great way to have a set process and avoid emotional losses, as I call them. That’s why live bets are so dangerous, because they rely almost purely on how you feel in the moment and rarely on data or process. I would definitely recommend following BroncoFan’s process; read his rationale on process, why he’s choosing certain plays and whatnot. 

Not sure if anyone else has anything to add to that. 

2 hours ago, twslhs20 said:

MIA -3 now. Wonder what the giant swing was about.

In case you don’t know, a Teaser is where you “buy” points in either direction in a parlay of picks. In this case, I bought a TD on the Dolphins and the Under, so at the time of the bet, the line was actually Dolphins +3 and O/U 40.5 total points. Beyond that, as BF said, the recent Covid news out of New Orleans has flipped the line from MIA +3 to MIA -3. Sometimes being good at this simply boils down to your timing. 

Edited December 27, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

18 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

A lot of trial and error and picking up what works from other people. I’ve personally learned that establishing “rules” for yourself is a great way to have a set process and avoid emotional losses, as I call them. That’s why live bets are so dangerous, because they rely almost purely on how you feel in the moment and rarely on data or process. I would definitely recommend following BroncoFan’s process; read his rationale on process, why he’s choosing certain plays and whatnot. 

Not sure if anyone else has anything to add to that. 

In case you don’t know, a Teaser is where you “buy” points in either direction in a parlay of picks. In this case, I bought a TD on the Dolphins and the Under, so at the time of the bet, the line was actually Dolphins +3 and O/U 40.5 total points. Beyond that, as BF said, the recent Covid news out of New Orleans has flipped the line from MIA +3 to MIA -3. Sometimes being good at this simply boils down to your timing. 

My only addition to live bet player props: 

1.  If you were on a player prop and it didn’t get released until in-game - then it’s ok IMO.   Players who are not top 3-4 target guys often fall in this category or teams with weather / injury issues fall into this cat.   Weather & injuries were part of Kmet’s late release; Josh Palmer being normally the 4th WR vs NYG was the other example.   
 

2.  If an in game injury to another player changes the situation, again worth exploring    
 

As for betting player props  pre-game, simple steps: 

1.   Look at projected totals and favorites.  Make sure you agree with it; if you do then go ahead & factor that in.   For example in a projected close game you expect 60 mins of hard play.   If you have a player on a big dog you expect catch-up work; big fave the run game might take over.  
 

2.  Don’t get caught by last game results unless there’s a role change that’s sticking.   Recency bias is a killer.  It often results in L’s “chasing” last week.   If anything, outlier results offer the opp to gain value if you know the player well. 
 

3.  Do pay attention to season-long / 4+ game (if earlier in season) trends .  They are far more reliable than previous game. 
 

4.  Look at team injuries to see how it affects projected output.  Vegas team totals are a reasonable place to start.  
 

5. Get a feel for making projections based off the above - ideally you want the number to be 10+ yards off if it’s a 50+ yard projected total or higher.   If it’s it’s 70+ yards or more I want to see a 15+ yard discrepancy; if it’s less than 50+ yards I want to see 25-50 percent gap (higher percentage the lower the number gets).  
 

6.  Realize Vegas wins more money on unders.   As a general rule casual bettors love the overs.   I’m obviously not a casual bettor but I fall into that category - because you’re never out of winning, and you can hit early.  With unders you have to sweat until the game is done (unless injury hits or starters get pulled).    It’s why I look for a big margin on my projections vs. bet amounts.  
 

7.  Read other ppl’s work.   I’m confident in my own - but I read other sources to make sure I’m not getting too biased.    You can always learn from others.   And don’t just seek out confirmatory opinions or dismiss counter opinions.   I learn more from constructive disagreements than anything else.   You ideally want to see reasoning and rationale / methodology discussed - those are far more durable methods of evaluation.   
 

8.   Track your results - I can’t stress this enough.   If you want to see where your blind spot / weaknesses are, track them.   I post to be completely transparent to others - but it’s how I learn and evolve.   It’s changed a lot in how I bet the last 2 years.    
 

9.  Finally, to re-iterate the most important rule - place single bets on everything, parleys are losing props.   I say that just having hit a 30U winner.   I also single bet all of them.   Betting is hard  - 60 percent hit rates are rarely reproducible - 55 and you’re doing great.    That’s also why single bets are crucial (and why I bet less than 5 percent of my weekly stakes on parleys - they’re fun ways to go for a big hit but they lose so often <5 percent is a must).  
 

As an add-on - be responsible with your bankroll.   Don’t chase - bet what you can afford to lose.  I have a 100U bankroll I stick to - and you don’t see me bet more than 20-25U on any slate at any time (I think 2-3 weeks it was as high as 30U).      

 

———————-

 

 

For example right now I project Kamara for 6-8 targets, 4-5 catches and 35+ yards - so it’s a 40 percent gap on o24.5.   That’s why I’m going 2U.   The injuries have also wiped out all the TE except Nick Vannett.   The only reason I’m not going higher than 2U  is the uncertainty with Ian Book.   
 

I’ve posted on other areas of betting but it’s a good recap on player props and general principles above.  Hope that helps, 

Edited December 28, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

13 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Looking ahead to next weeks slate early, this is what jumps out:

1.) KC@CIN over 49.0 - I don’t anticipate us stopping this KC offense. They are rolling right now and we are giving up a ton of space on defense currently with little pass rush outside of Hendrickson. Our offense should keep pace.

2.) NYG@CHI under 38.0 - Glennon/Fromm versus Dalton/Foles. Two solid defenses. Need I say more? I can see this going 3-3 into halftime.

3.) DEN +6 @LAC - @Broncofan can verify this for me. Even with Lock potentially starting again with Bridgewater in concussion protocol, I still like DEN to have a shot at winning here. LAC is struggling ATM and simply cannot stop the run. Will likely alt this to +7.

Btw - what’s the status on your T’s, Logan Wilson and your DB’s?   Burrow’s ability against pressure gives CIN a real shot to win.   

[SaveOurSonics]

13 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Looking ahead. I already locked in MIA+10 / U47.5 Teaser. Also just locked in Ian Book O23.5 Rushing (-110). Book isn’t afraid to take off and run. The Miami secondary has been shutdown as of late so I expect Book to be forced to extend plays. There’s virtually no one behind Book, so I’m also not too concerned about a mid-game benching. 

Just checked and the Book rushing line increased from 23.5 to 33.5 since I posted this 😳