Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Btw - what’s the status on your T’s, Logan Wilson and your DB’s?   Burrow’s ability against pressure gives CIN a real shot to win.   

Fwiw, Cincinnati backup Brandon Allen just tested positive, which could be an ominous sign that Cincy is the next team up to get hit by this. I might hit Denver before any Burrow news comes out…

[Broncofan]

10 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Fwiw, Cincinnati backup Brandon Allen just tested positive, which could be an ominous sign that Cincy is the next team up to get hit by this. I might hit Denver before any Burrow news comes out…

Cincy is playing KC, not us. 

[Broncofan]

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK for tomorrow night, 3 small TD plays, and 1 2U player prop I'm locking in right now because I only see ppl taking the over as time goes by:

-Alvin Kamara O24.5 receving yards 2.2U to win 2U - with a rookie QB making his first start, I expect screens and swing passes to be there, especially on 2nd / 3rd and long.   There's no catch prop, but looking at the yardage, it's at least 10 yards too low IMO.

-Mack Hollins +500 TD (0.6U) - all the attention goes to Parker & Waddle, but he's usually out there when it's a throwing down in near the GL.    

-Lil'Jordan Humphrey +900 TD / +12500 2+ (1.0U / 0.4U) - this reflects the fact that NO is down to only Nick Vannett as their TO, so they like to have big body targets in the RZ.    We've already seen him score on prime time vs. DAL, and he’s now the de facto move TE.  So I'm not passing up the great +900 odds here - but given it's Ian Book's first start, I'm not going 2U like I did on TNF, but a slightly bigger play (that's offset by only taking a small stab on Mack Hollins).

-Nick Vannett +750 TD / +11000 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) - did I mention Vannett?   Can't leave him off, this is my way to hedge on the most likely big bodies for tonight (and the boundary CB's taking out the outside WR's).

That's 5U I have so far for MNF, I'll look at the other props when they come out.   BOL!

 

On 12/23/2021 at 12:48 PM, Broncofan said:

I took MIA +150 and RACE to 20/25 with the hint NO was experiencing an outbreak.  

 

Ok props are now all out and I’m on 2 more rec props: 

 Mike Gesicki O4.5 rec +130 - the nickel coverage is where NO is most vulnerable.   Gesicki still has the most WR snaps as TE and slot %.   He’s still getting 7+ targets a game.   With the plus money I’ll go here.    EDIT:  Also adding Gesicki +300 / +2500 2+ for 0.8U/0.2U
 

Trequan Smith O2.5 rec 2.2U to win 2U - yes Book might be awful.   But the slot guy is the best target vs. Mia secondary.   That’s such a low number.   Take the slot guy (and Humphrey / Vannett odds for the TD prop at those prices).  
 

EDIT:   Added the Gesicki +300 TD / +2500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) & Tua +600 TD 1U props too.   That’s 10.2U in player props so that’s enough for tonight esp since I got MIA +150 ML 2U & RACE to 20/25 earlier in the week when news of the COVID NO wave coming broke.   So that’s 13.2U on the line tonight.  BOL! 

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Just checked and the Book rushing line increased from 23.5 to 33.5 since I posted this 😳

And that's the benefit of jumping early on props you like.   The Kamara receiving yards prop is already up to 27.5.

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Btw - what’s the status on your T’s, Logan Wilson and your DB’s?   Burrow’s ability against pressure gives CIN a real shot to win.   

Logan Wilson and Riley Reiff have a shot at playing this week. Logan was initially ruled out “for a few weeks” on 12/06. He’s due back. Reiff had a “chance” at practicing last week but didn’t. Both are worth monitoring this week. It’s possible the Chiefs game was circled as the return date.

DB’s are all good to my knowledge.

[SaveOurSonics]

Couple of findings for tonight's game. Ian Book is known for struggling early in games but having a closers mentality, so I was checking out the value of Dolphins 1Q and 1H bets. +130 juice for 1Q -0.5 which sounded really good. Upon further review...

• Over the Dolphins last 7 games (6-1) they are 1-6 covering -0.5 in the 1Q (with the 1 being the Texans)
• Over those same 7 games, they are 6-1 covering the 2Q (including games against Bills & Ravens)
• 4-3 covering the 1H, with all 3 of those losses coming from division foes

 

Fwiw, I usually don't do a lot of 1Q or 1H bets unless I think the value is definitively there. I think I've only played 2 all year, and I hit both. I think we see both offenses come out really slow and conservative to start the game, but I'm confident the Dolphins do enough to cover that 2Q play. I'll predict 3-0 Saints to end 1Q and 7-3 Dolphins to end the 1H. The 1H spread is -2 at -115, whereas the 2Q spread is -0.5 at +120, so I'll be playing that. 

Additionally, there's not a ton of data to support this (4-3 in their last 7), but I'll take 1H U18.5 (-110). Again, I expect both offenses to come out conservative as they lean on the defense and feel each other out a bit. This should also serve to essentially hedge the Dolphins 2Q spread pick, because I imagine if they don't cover that it's because their offense is being shutdown. 

 

Edited December 27, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

29 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

And that's the benefit of jumping early on props you like.   The Kamara receiving yards prop is already up to 27.5.

I was actually bummed because it initially got released at O/U 20.5 and as I was doing my homework on it, it jumped up to 23.5. I guess that number doesn't look so bad now. 

[SmittyBacall]

44 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Logan Wilson and Riley Reiff have a shot at playing this week. Logan was initially ruled out “for a few weeks” on 12/06. He’s due back. Reiff had a “chance” at practicing last week but didn’t. Both are worth monitoring this week. It’s possible the Chiefs game was circled as the return date.

DB’s are all good to my knowledge.

Having said that…

 

[SaveOurSonics]

Am I crazy enough to counter my MIA+10 / U47 Teaser with a NO+10 / U45 Teaser? 🤔

Just feels like New Orleans will come out -- at home -- with a similar chip on their shoulder from last week as primetime underdogs. The Dolphins are the 25th ranked special teams by DVOA which could prove to be a wildcard in this matchup. We also know from previous data I shared that MNF underdogs LOVE to cover (one of the highest ATS hit rates out there), though this matchup is odd because the Dolphins opened as underdogs and are now favorites.  

Not an official play yet, but I'd be curious to hear others thoughts on it. 

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Mike Gesicki O4.5 rec +130 - the nickel coverage is where NO is most vulnerable.   Gesicki still has the most WR snaps as TE and slot %.   He’s still getting 7+ targets a game.   With the plus money I’ll go here.

I like the logic here. I think I'm actually going to play Jaylen Waddle O6.5 Receptions at +115 instead, just because Gesicki's usage tends to run hot and cold whereas Waddle has really cemented himself as Tua's favorite target with an average of 9.75 targets over their last 8 games (which mostly syncs with the time this offense started turning things around). Waddle has hit the Over in 4 of his last 5 games and, as BF mentioned, the weakness of the Saints pass defense is in the middle where Waddle tends to run high% routes. I also don't expect the Dolphins backfield to win on the ground, which should setup Waddle nicely to serve as an extension of the run game. 

[SmittyBacall]

If Travis Kelce’s receiving line comes in around 75, I will be all over it.

Whether it’s Kittle or Andrews, the Bengals have been terrorized by TE’s. Our corners and safety play has been pretty good, but there is so much to expose over the middle in Anarumo’s scheme. Kelce will be unstoppable.

[twslhs20]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

 

 

Ok props are now all out and I’m on 2 more rec props: 

 Mike Gesicki O4.5 rec +130 - the nickel coverage is where NO is most vulnerable.   Gesicki still has the most WR snaps as TE and slot %.   He’s still getting 7+ targets a game.   With the plus money I’ll go here.    EDIT:  Also adding Gesicki +300 / +2500 2+ for 0.8U/0.2U
 

Trequan Smith O2.5 rec 2.2U to win 2U - yes Book might be awful.   But the slot guy is the best target vs. Mia secondary.   That’s such a low number.   Take the slot guy (and Humphrey / Vannett odds for the TD prop at those prices).  
 

That’s 8.2U in player props so that’s enough for tonight esp since I got MIA +150 ML 2U & RACE to 20/25 earlier in the week when news of the COVID NO wave coming broke.   So that’s 12.2U on the line tonight.  BOL! 

 

I'm all in with you tonight. LFG.

[SaveOurSonics]

The more homework I do on tonight's game the more I find what feels like very generous lines. I had to lock in 2 more I love + another 0.5U play for fun. I guess it's gonna be a loaded card for me tonight. 

Mark Ingram O8.5 Carries (+100) 1U - He's done this in 5 straight games with the Saints, 4 of which were losses telling me he's getting fed regardless of game script. If the game plan is similar to last week (it should be with Harris and the TEs out), we'll likely see quite a bit of Kamara split out as a receiver and Ingram in the backfield. 

Nick Vannett SGP O1.5 Receptions / O20.5 Receiving (+115) 1U - Vannett quietly recorded near identical 3 catch for 40+ yard outings prior to last week's goose egg in Tampa featuring 13 completions. He's quite literally the only TE on the roster with Trautman and Johnson out for this game. Miami's defense surrenders an average of 60.3 yards per game to opposing TEs. Big reason for that is the best players on this defense are in that secondary, which could potentially nullify Callaway and/or Smith, and open the middle of the field for Vannett. I may have been wiser to just take the O22.5 Yards at -110, but I figure if he gets the yards, he'll get the catches and I like the extra juice in my favor. 

Tua Tagovailoa ATTD (+600) 0.5U - Tua has 3 rushing TDs on the year in effectively 9 games, with all 3 coming against the only opposing teams currently sporting winning records among the Dolphins games played (crazy it's that few). What this tells me is, in a close competitive game, Tua is willing to put his body on the line in the RZ (though you could counter that the Saints don't have a winning record). Next, the Saints sport the NFL's best RZ defense with a 43.6% conversion rate. Despite this, they are tied for last in the league with 5 QB rushing TDs on the year. The Phins also don't have a true goal line back, so the odds of a Tua sneak and score is well within reason. Finally, the Saints are a heavy man defense which of course opens up running lanes if the receivers aren't getting separation. Again, not something I'm super confident in, but one I can easily see happen and really like the +600 juice at half a unit.

Edited December 27, 2021 by SaveOurSonics

[Broncofan]

3 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Logan Wilson and Riley Reiff have a shot at playing this week. Logan was initially ruled out “for a few weeks” on 12/06. He’s due back. Reiff had a “chance” at practicing last week but didn’t. Both are worth monitoring this week. It’s possible the Chiefs game was circled as the return date.

DB’s are all good to my knowledge.

 

2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Having said that…

 

Out of all the dog plays to pick a winner CIN ML appeals to me the most TBH.  

[Broncofan]

Just now, SaveOurSonics said:

The more homework I do on tonight's game the more I find what feels like very generous lines. I had to lock in 2 more I love + another 0.5U play for fun. I guess it's gonna be a loaded card for me tonight. 

Mark Ingram O8.5 Carries (+100) 1U - He's done this in 5 straight games with the Saints, 4 of which were losses telling me he's getting fed regardless of game script. If the game plan is similar to last week (it should be with Harris and the TEs out), we'll likely see quite a bit of Kamara split out as a receiver and Ingram in the backfield. 

Nick Vannett SGP O1.5 Receptions / O20.5 Receiving (+115) 1U - Vannett quietly recorded near identical 3 catch for 40+ yard outings prior to last week's goose egg in Tampa featuring 13 completions. He's quite literally the only TE on the roster with Trautman and Johnson out for this game. Miami's defense surrenders an average of 60.3 yards per game to opposing TEs. Big reason for that is the best players on this defense are in that secondary, which could potentially nullify Callaway and/or Smith, and open the middle of the field for Vannett. I may have been wiser to just take the O22.5 Yards at -110, but I figure if he gets the yards, he'll get the catches and I like the extra juice in my favor. 

Tua Tagovailoa ATTD (+600) 0.5U - Tua has 3 rushing TDs on the year in effectively 9 games, with all 3 coming against the only opposing teams currently sporting winning + among the Dolphins games played (crazy it's that few). What this tells me is, in a close competitive game, Tua is willing to put his body on the line in the RZ (though you could counter that the Saints don't have a winning record). Next, the Saints sport the NFL's best RZ defense with a 43.6% conversion rate. Despite this, they are tied for last in the league with 5 QB rushing TDs on the year. The Phins also don't have a true goal line back, so the odds of a Tua sneak and score is well within reason. Finally, the Saints are a heavy man defense which of course opens up running lanes if the receivers aren't getting separation. Again, not something I'm super confident in, but one I can easily see happen and really like the +600 juice at half a unit.

Love the Tua TD prop fwiw.   Adding that.