SmittyBacall Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Two lines from the KC@CIN game that stick out: Travis Kelce over 68.5 receiving yards -110 - Cincinnati pass defense is struggling mightily over the middle right now as we continue to lack pass rush, and the run defense remains above average. Tight ends especially have been almost unstoppable against us. Last week Mark Andrews laid 8 rec, 125 yards, and a TD with Josh Johnson at the helm. A week before that @DEN, Fant and Okwuegbunam combined 8 rec for 115 yards. A week before that Kittle went off for 13 rec, 151 yards and a TD. It’s safe to say Kelce will have his way with out LBs/safeties this week in what has shootout potential. 4 units. Joe Burrow over 5.5 rushing yards -110 - As Joe gets healthier and regains trust back in his knee and mobility, he’s been taking off more. He was proven to be a very capable runner at LSU and during his rookie year is now regaining that form. He rushed once for 11 yards last week vs BAL in a blowout, and 5 times for 25 yards @DEN a week before that in a grind game. With a win and we’re in scenario now unfolding, I expect Joe to treat this as a playoff game and put his body more on the line if/when the opportunity presents itself. He can easily hit this in one run. 2 units. More to come later… 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Starting to get some props available on my book. Already see one that I'm just not gonna overthink. CeeDee Lamb O61.5 Receiving (-115) 1.5U - Not much explaining here. This feels a solid 10 yards too low. Lamb is the alpha in an offense that has started to lean pass heavy in recent weeks and faces a Cardinals defense that has looked lost recently. It's one of the higher O/U's of the week and in a climate-controlled stadium. Here are the top receivers yardage over the Cardinals last 3 games (coincides with their dip in play): MPittman 88 yards ASt.Brown 90 yards (JReynolds had 68) CKupp 123 (OBJ had 77) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 37 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: Only thing holding me back from a bigger U play is the fact that Kelce is coming back from Covid and we've seen how detrimental that can be on a player's performance in their first game back (look no further than Tyreek Hill last week). Very true, that is the only blemish. However, Tyreek was activated the Saturday before the game Sunday, Kelce was activated on Wednesday and was full-go at practice all week. I'm hoping the extra reps negate a slow comeback. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Very true, that is the only blemish. However, Tyreek was activated the Saturday before the game Sunday, Kelce was activated on Wednesday and was full-go at practice all week. I'm hoping the extra reps negate a slow comeback. I'll be playing both Kelce and Burrow props that you posted once they're available to me. Love the rationale, just can't commit to a huge play (tbh I never bet more than 3U on anything). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said: I'll be playing both Kelce and Burrow props that you posted once they're available to me. Love the rationale, just can't commit to a huge play (tbh I never bet more than 3U on anything). No shame in that! I've adopted @Broncofan's method. When I see something I really, really like I'm going at it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: No shame in that! I've adopted @Broncofan's method. When I see something I really, really like I'm going at it. I hope to get back to that. If you've seen some of my recent cards, I was absolutely nailing my 1U player props and consistently missing on my 2U plays, so recently going with a more conservative 1-1.5U range on props until I can prove to myself that my 1.5U plays deserve to be 2U plays. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Is this thread strictly for NFL plays? If so, disregard the following. Decided to sprinkle 0.5U on a 5-leg Teaser yesterday that hit and paid back 3U. Shockingly very little sweat for a 5-leg parlay. Purdue +15 / Purdue O58 / Pitt U55 / Wisconsin -0.5 / Wisconsin U50 Today's NCAAF Teaser of the day is... Bama -4.5 / Georgia -0.5 / Georgia U53.5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said: Two lines from the KC@CIN game that stick out: Travis Kelce over 68.5 receiving yards -110 - Cincinnati pass defense is struggling mightily over the middle right now as we continue to lack pass rush, and the run defense remains above average. Tight ends especially have been almost unstoppable against us. Last week Mark Andrews laid 8 rec, 125 yards, and a TD with Josh Johnson at the helm. A week before that @DEN, Fant and Okwuegbunam combined 8 rec for 115 yards. A week before that Kittle went off for 13 rec, 151 yards and a TD. It’s safe to say Kelce will have his way with out LBs/safeties this week in what has shootout potential. 4 units. Joe Burrow over 5.5 rushing yards -110 - As Joe gets healthier and regains trust back in his knee and mobility, he’s been taking off more. He was proven to be a very capable runner at LSU and during his rookie year is now regaining that form. He rushed once for 11 yards last week vs BAL in a blowout, and 5 times for 25 yards @DEN a week before that in a grind game. With a win and we’re in scenario now unfolding, I expect Joe to treat this as a playoff game and put his body more on the line if/when the opportunity presents itself. He can easily hit this in one run. 2 units. More to come later… Adding: Matthew Stafford over 2.5 passing touchdowns +175 - For the same reason Burrow can throw for 4 TDs and 527 yards, BAL will once again trot out their practice squad vets to cover one of the most dangerous passing attacks in football. BAL also remains one of the best rush defense groups in football, making this a pass funnel opportunity. Good bet at these odds for someone who has hit this in 8 of 15 games. 1 unit. Edited December 31, 2021 by SmittyBacall 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Ronald Jones O70.5 Rushing (-105) 1.5U - The line is actually 67.5 but I bumped it up for better juice. I’d normally play this at 2U but sticking to my rule for now. I think it will be a heavy RoJo game and the Jets have been miserable against opposing RBs. This line is really suppressed after a mediocre game against a tough Carolina defense. Also hit the Burrow rushing prop 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Two more from me. Both only 1U plays due to the forecast in Cincy on Sunday (~20mph winds projected). Tee Higgins O70.5 Receiving (-110) 1U - Watching the Bengals, it’s become very clear that Tee is the #1 for the time being. His chemistry with Joe is lights out and he’s gone for 100+ in 4 of his last 5, with the one exclusion being a slow paced game in Denver. Without the wind, I’d play this up to 85 yards, so what feels like a 15-yard cushion factoring wind is doable. Tyreek Hill O74.5 Receiving (-110) 1U - I know Cincy’s LB depth is now razor thin, but I still don’t expect KC to find consistent success on the ground, which will force them to open up the offense. After a very disappointing game last week which suppresses this line, I think Tyreek is in a big bounce back spot. Prior to his “Covid clunker” last week, he had hit the Over in 4 of his last 5, ironically with the only exclusion being against Denver. I don’t want to bet on Kelce yards with him returning off of the Covid list this week (though I will look to play his Receptions), which means those yards have to come elsewhere. I’ll put my money on Hill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 Jaylen Waddle O69.5 Receiving (-110) 1U - I’m going to keep hitting this until he gives me a reason not to. Same rationale as last week; Tennessee has a great Run D, so Waddle should serve as an extension in the short to intermediate passing game. His volume is incredibly secure right now. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 2 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: No shame in that! I've adopted @Broncofan's method. When I see something I really, really like I'm going at it. Fwiw this is key part of long term success. You can’t bet the same on every bet. With a success rate of 55-60 percent as best case the key is to leverage higher value plays. The whole Kelly system to bet size shows the success behind it. Of course it needs ppl to have good evaluations, bet consistently but also be able to tolerate swings that occur with losses. But in the long run if you have strong evaluations and see smash value spots increasing bet size (responsibly) is a winning strategy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 31, 2021 Share Posted December 31, 2021 @SaveOurSonics Tailing Tee and Jaylen. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 (edited) 22 hours ago, SmittyBacall said: Two lines from the KC@CIN game that stick out: Travis Kelce over 68.5 receiving yards -110 - Cincinnati pass defense is struggling mightily over the middle right now as we continue to lack pass rush, and the run defense remains above average. Tight ends especially have been almost unstoppable against us. Last week Mark Andrews laid 8 rec, 125 yards, and a TD with Josh Johnson at the helm. A week before that @DEN, Fant and Okwuegbunam combined 8 rec for 115 yards. A week before that Kittle went off for 13 rec, 151 yards and a TD. It’s safe to say Kelce will have his way with out LBs/safeties this week in what has shootout potential. 4 units. Joe Burrow over 5.5 rushing yards -110 - As Joe gets healthier and regains trust back in his knee and mobility, he’s been taking off more. He was proven to be a very capable runner at LSU and during his rookie year is now regaining that form. He rushed once for 11 yards last week vs BAL in a blowout, and 5 times for 25 yards @DEN a week before that in a grind game. With a win and we’re in scenario now unfolding, I expect Joe to treat this as a playoff game and put his body more on the line if/when the opportunity presents itself. He can easily hit this in one run. 2 units. More to come later… 22 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: Starting to get some props available on my book. Already see one that I'm just not gonna overthink. CeeDee Lamb O61.5 Receiving (-115) 1.5U - Not much explaining here. This feels a solid 10 yards too low. Lamb is the alpha in an offense that has started to lean pass heavy in recent weeks and faces a Cardinals defense that has looked lost recently. It's one of the higher O/U's of the week and in a climate-controlled stadium. Here are the top receivers yardage over the Cardinals last 3 games (coincides with their dip in play): MPittman 88 yards ASt.Brown 90 yards (JReynolds had 68) CKupp 123 (OBJ had 77) 19 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said: Jaylen Waddle O69.5 Receiving (-110) 1U - I’m going to keep hitting this until he gives me a reason not to. Same rationale as last week; Tennessee has a great Run D, so Waddle should serve as an extension in the short to intermediate passing game. His volume is incredibly secure right now. Agree with Kelce, Lamb & Waddle (Stafford O1.5 -230 - booooo) - interestingly, most books only have yardage props, so only can take a few pass TD, rushing yards & rec yards props right now. My list so far: Tua Tagovailoa O1.5 pass TD's +110 - TEN's a pass funnel D, and at plus money, I'll definitely go here. Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +150 - there's risk always that the run TD is how PHI scores. But as we saw with DAL-WFT, pass is how you exploit their D the most. Kyler Murray O30.5 rush yards - I expect this will be needed with DAL's pass rush and ARI's issues in getting guys open at the WR spot, along with another prop Ezekiel Elliott O53.5 rush yards - ARI's so vulnerable to the run, I expected this to be O70.5 or more with DAL expected to win. Joe Mixon O15.5 rec yards - KC's D promotes short area passes, so this one's an easy one to take IMO Travis Kelce O69.5 rec yards - already moved up from @SmittyBacall's tout, and will continue to move up. Windy day, even more short area stuff, that's Kelce Jaylen Waddle O69.5 rec yards - same reasoning as @SaveOurSonics gave, can't really add much Ceedee Lamb O62.5 rec yards - ditto Zach Ertz O53.5 rec yards - the one area where DAL D will willingly give up catches, but no catch prop yet. It’s no coincidence there are so few games covered - lot of games waiting for final injury reports. And almost no reception props at all. Once there are reception props out and more games have props (a lot won't come out until Sunday), I'll add to the prop card. Edited January 1, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted January 1, 2022 Share Posted January 1, 2022 8 hours ago, Broncofan said: Jalen Hurts O1.5 pass TD's +150 - there's risk always that the run TD is how PHI scores. But as we saw with DAL-WFT, pass is how you exploit their D the most With Miles Sanders out, Jordan Howard banged up (potentially out), I love this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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