Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

ugh Devonte Smith comes up a yard short in his prop Gibson came up a catch short in his even though he didn't get a catch or target until the end of the 3rd. Tough night. 

[Broncofan]

7 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

ugh Devonte Smith comes up a yard short in his prop Gibson came up a catch short in his even though he didn't get a catch or target until the end of the 3rd. Tough night. 

You could play that 4Q over 10x with the same players...and you'd get a Smith / Gibson prop hitting at LEAST 8x, if not 9x.

Let's recap:

-D-Smith hits the TD to be RIGHT ON THE NUMBER with 13+ minutes left.   PHI gets the ball back 3x before the last play.  Watkins fumbles, which takes away any chances for Smith touches, or a PHI lead (which then gets Gibson more catch-up work - by this time, he's at 3 catches).  Watkins doesn't fumble that, PHI is at the 20, with a tired WAS D (they just gave up the TD drive before).

-Gibson meanwhile, misses the last minute of the 1H in the 2-minute drill, where WAS completes 2 passes in the flat afterwards - which are his catches.   And because PHI never regains the lead in the 2H, he basically no hurry-up work in the 2H.    Sigh.

-That crazy penalty takes away the ball from PHI with over 1.40 left in the game.    That's guaranteed work for D-Smith with both Goedert and AJ Brown hurting. 

I get bad beats are a part of gambling - but I won't lie; after Jeudy injury & Juju injury yesterday basically cost me -4.5U yesterday, and Mooney Week 9 being stuck at the number and TWICE getting a bubble screen, and getting tackled for no gain...and Tonyan Week 9 being 1.5 yards back at the 3Q and getting hurt - those 2 were literally 4U swings each.   So that's literally 20U in swings where the calls were IMO still correct on the analysis, and then bad luck intervened in a massive way - but going 0/6 in ALL of them?   Man...that's brutal. 

Still, that's the game.  The biggest key is not to tilt - but also learn from the bad calls.   Cooper was a bad call yesterday, no 2 ways around it, and so was PHI -11, and the SEA ML.  

The only thing that's really saved me are the TD props...fitting that Gibson hit tonight.   Still, won't lie, it's probably good that we don't have games tomorrow - I'd be tilting so hard.    Take a couple of days off, and get back at it for TNF.

 

[Broncofan]

23 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Well injuries really suck.....lost 3 guys due to injury, and worse, really early too (worst part is that Jeudy was likely open and probably gets 60%+ of the main prop on that play alone...on the very first play of game; sigh).

ATS/ML - 2-2-1 including UK game with SEA ML, literally breaks even.  

PLAYER PROPS - 2-4, Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney pay off nicely (Kmet in a massive way, +9.2U with 2U on the catch, rec main props, and 1U on 40+ and 0.5U on +750), but losing the 3 3.5U plays on Jeudy (damn you injuries), Amari Cooper (just a bad call) and Lockett on UK game, and then Juju (who looked solid for 6+ catches, but alas) & Dulcich (4 targets in a game with no Jeudy/Hamler???? OMG Hackett....) for 1 each - that's -2.3U lost today.  

TD PROPS - 1-6, with Juwan Johnson paying out at +400 again (3rd time!), and then the 1.2U profit from the Hinton cashout (no Vigil prop was offered, dammit would have taken it lol), with the 6.5U stake, that's -1.3U lost today.  

__________________

A 2-4 player prop night and 1-6 TD night should mean a bigger loss - but it does show the benefit of the alt lines - Kmet's alt lines huge payoffs cover my bad luck with injuries and just plain bad call with Amari Cooper.   Still, it would be great to get on the roll again, but with such a bad by-the-numbers result, the 2 super-longshot TD's and Juwan Johnson keep me afloat for MNF.

WEEK 10 TNF

                                                                                                                                                                   .                    
ATS/ ML & RACE

24-20-1 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +0.6U. (-1.0U Week 10 TNF).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

68-71  BALANCE  +46.2U (-9.3U Week 10 SNF) - Now 31-28 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

19-60, BALANCE +100.7U (+13.2U Week 10 SNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400).    
 

TOTAL:  +157.5U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 SNF - +2.9U)

 

21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

As for MNF, I already have PHI -10 from early on this week, but I have 1 player prop at 2U and 2 mega-longshot TD props that just have to take a 0.5U shot on, given how the week's been going....

ATS/ML - PHI -10

PLAYER PROPS - Antonio Gibson O3.5 catches +110 2U - if you're a B365 guy, think hard about 5 & 6+ catch props - because Gibson's still the guy, and PHI averages giving up 8+ targets a game there.   TBH if my player props weren't on such a cold streak, I'd consider this a 4U play, but we know how that's gone of late (LOL).

Devonta Smith O53.5 Rec yds 2U ,70+ +200 - WAS has 3 factors that help this prop - first they’re tough vs the run game but soft vs the pass.  Next they are tough vs TE being the top fantasy D vs TE by DVOA.    So Goedert gets fewer looks.  Lastly they are a zone D - and Devonta crushes zone D.  

Really, the other props to attack are AJB props, especially with the Goedert fade - but the potential for a blowout has me tempering my plays here.   If I believe PHI wins by 10+, then the catchup script for WAS RB (and no McKissic) makes Gibson the play, and I’ll play D-Smith too  

 

TD PROPS - Well, I'm going with the backup TE play, and going with John Bates +1600 (either DK or FD) and Armani Rodgers +3100 (FD) for 0.5U each.   Logan Thomas is not separating anymore, so the other TE's are seeing the work.   Cole Turner has been inactive even when he cleared concussion protocol, and interesting twist - Armani Rodgers is a converted QB - so the idea of RPO / jet sweep plays are there (he's actually run one jet sweep for 20+ yards).   Obv more likely neither hits, but I've seen far worse odds for guys in similar situations (Fortson, Shane Zylstra lol <Brock Wright did hit this week albeit for "only" +400, too).

Looking to end Week 10 on a high note!

 

 

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Weird pricing - Jahan Dotson TD  is +500 on FD and +300 or worse everywhere else. Gotta take that shot.  

 

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Something is up with FD - their odds keep increasing.   Now Gibson is +300.  Ok I’ll bite for 1U.  

 

 

WEEK 10 TNF

                                                                                                                                                                   .                    
ATS/ ML & RACE

24-20-1 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE -0.4U. (-2.0U Week 10).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

68-73  BALANCE  +41.2U (-9.3U Week 10 SNF) - Now 31-30 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

20-63, BALANCE +102.7U (+15.2U Week 10 SNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300).    
 

TOTAL:  +143.5U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh>)

[Dash]

One angle I didn't really consider for Patterson last week is that he was coming off IR and playing his second game in four days with it being a Thursday game.

 

Now he gets a porous run defense in the bears and should be healed up more. 

 

He might go into this week undervalued and underlooked in betting. 

[Broncofan]

For the TNF game I have 3 TD plays and 1 player prop: 

Treylon Burks o34.5 Rec yds - he ran just as many routes as Westbrook-Ikhine - but he drew Surtain Island for a large part of the game.   Jaire Alexander doesn’t follow in the zone scheme so I like the low #.   
 

Treylon Burks +480 / +5000 FD 1.2U / 0.3U - see above. 
 

Austin Hooper +600 1U - their main receiving TE have to take a shot with no Campbell there  

Chigoziem Okongkwo +1200 FD 0.5U   - the other guy.  
 

That’s it for now - few to no Packer props because of their WR uncertainty.   So looking to get Week 11 off to a good start!    

 

Edited November 16, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

For the TNF game I have 3 TD plays and 1 player prop: 

Treylon Burks o34.5 Rec yds - he ran just as many routes as Westbrook-Ikhine - but he drew Surtain Island for a large part of the game.   Jaire Alexander doesn’t follow in the zone scheme so I like the low #.   
 

Treylon Burks +480 / +5000 FD 1.2U / 0.3U - see above. 
 

Austin Hooper +600 1U - their main receiving TE have to take a shot with no Campbell there  

Chigoziem Okongkwo +1200 FD 0.5U   - the other guy.  
 

That’s it for now - few to no Packer props because of their WR uncertainty.   So looking to get Week 11 off to a good start!    

 

how's greenbay rank against the tes interesting.  I been eyeing Okongkwo for awhile now for any anytime TD guys super talented.

[Broncofan]

16 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

how's greenbay rank against the tes interesting.  I been eyeing Okongkwo for awhile now for any anytime TD guys super talented.

It’s hard to judge because Campbell was a huge part of that.   Now he’s gone.  The safeties haven’t been good at all. 

[Broncofan]

On 11/15/2022 at 8:58 PM, Broncofan said:

For the TNF game I have 3 TD plays and 1 player prop: 

Treylon Burks o34.5 Rec yds & 50+ +240 0.5U - he ran just as many routes as Westbrook-Ikhine - but he drew Surtain Island for a large part of the game.   Jaire Alexander doesn’t follow in the zone scheme so I like the low #.   
 

Treylon Burks +480 / +5000 FD 1.2U / 0.3U - see above. 
 

Austin Hooper +600 1U - their main receiving TE have to take a shot with no Campbell there  

Chigoziem Okongkwo +1200 FD 0.5U   - the other guy.  
 

That’s it for now - few to no Packer props because of their WR uncertainty.   So looking to get Week 11 off to a good start!    

 

1 ATS pick, 1 player prop and 2 more TD props to add (this time on GB's side, have no idea what FD is doing), but I have to add on here:

TEN +3.5 - I follow the Titans rule and it's served me well - fade/pass on them as faves, but take them as dogs...especially home dogs.   I hope Jeffrey Simmons plays, but even if he doesn't, with the GB D reeling (no Devondre Campbell and no Gary really hurts them in a massive way), I'm ok with the 3.5.

Aaron Jones o23.5 Rec yds & 50+ +360 0.5U should be the way to get him  involved - because TEN’s top rated run D really funnels pass work to the RB’s short.  

Samori Toure +1600 FD 0.5U - I know, Cobb could be back.   And maybe Toure doesn't play at all - but he's also the only other vertical threat besides Watson.   And you have Sammy Watkins a play away from getting hurt.   That alone makes +1600 worth a stab.

Mercedes Lewis +1600 FD 0.5U - TEN is absolute NAILS vs. the run, top D by DVOA.   So if GB O gets it close....you know play action is alway at play, and Lewis is their best blocking TE - which is why he's always a longshot to score, but at +1600, also well above his actual probability vs. pass funnel D's like TEN's. 

As a contrast - DK has both of the guys above at +650 (which seems about right, so obv I'll go FD).

Also took 1 alt line for Burks +240 at 50+ yds for 0.5U to the main prop.  So that’s 8U on for TNF that’s definitely enough lol. 

BOL!

Edited November 17, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

DK is offering a free 0.4U TNF SGP and a boost, so I took TEN +3.5 / Henry TD / A-Jones 30+ rec yds / Burks 40+ rec yds / Westbrook-Ikhine 30+ rec yds / Okongkwo 16+ rec yds for a +10500 play (yes it's crazy...yes it's free).   Obv I believe in Burks / Jones and TEN +3.5, but gotta take some other chances to get the big payout.  BOL!

[adamq]

Love it all besides Hooper- he is just garbage (in my eyes at least)

 

Aaron Rodgers to score +950.. Maybe I'm crazy but I think even at 38 years old ARod could book it to the pylon and score if/when they get it close

[Broncofan]

7 hours ago, adamq said:

Love it all besides Hooper- he is just garbage (in my eyes at least)

 

Aaron Rodgers to score +950.. Maybe I'm crazy but I think even at 38 years old ARod could book it to the pylon and score if/when they get it close

It's not crazy but it really depends if Simmons plays or not.   I like those odds better than an actual RB rushing TD prop (which is under +200 - no thanks for that risk/return).  EDIT: OK I’m on board lol   

I hear you on Hooper - I have ZERO other props on him lol.   Just he's the snap count guy, and until Okongkwo takes over the job, well, +600 is tough to overlook.

Edited November 17, 2022 by Broncofan

[Dash]

Ten may be ranked number one in adjusted yards allowed in the run defense game but they have had a terribly soft schedule of run offenses faced. 

Indy(2), KC,WAS,HOU,BUF,DEN,NYG all rank in the bottom half of rush offense by adjusted line yards and running back yards.

The last time they faced a good run offense was when they played the number one ranked Raiders. They didn't run much but Jacobs did have a very nice 13 carries for 66 yards. 

Now they face the second ranked team in rush offense in adjusted line yards in GB.

Jones can definitely keep on trucking with Henry this game. 

[NYRaider]

16 hours ago, Broncofan said:

TEN +3.5 - I follow the Titans rule and it's served me well - fade/pass on them as faves, but take them as dogs...especially home dogs.   I hope Jeffrey Simmons plays, but even if he doesn't, with the GB D reeling (no Devondre Campbell and no Gary really hurts them in a massive way), I'm ok with the 3.5.

The game is in Green Bay though sir, lol.

[NYRaider]

The Browns / Bills game is one to monitor. Apparently Buffalo is bracing for 3-6 feet of snow and super high winds this weekend so they'll either be playing in terrible conditions or the league may have to move the game to a new location. High winds and bad weather would obviously favor the Browns especially considering Allen's injury and now there are also reports that there's a major flu bug going around in the Bills locker room.

[Broncofan]

DK boosted Derrick Henry anytime TD to +100 that’s an auto-bet vs bad run D’s - max 2U.