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thebestever6

thebestever6

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Posted
21 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Khalil Shakir +900 0.5U - Shakir's snaps have dropped, but the reality is that Isiah McKenzie's play has declined, and Shakir still presents a big body.   Only worth a small 0.5U stab, but it's the only longshot TD on BUF with any legit PT and RZ snaps, so I'll get a piece of the action here.   

would you put a full unit on this if the odds went up too +1200? asking for a friend love your card this week too excellent choices they mostly are.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Dawson Knox's alt lines on FD have come out and it's 50+ rec yds +180 & 70+ yds +420 0.5U, so taking the extra 1.5U as usual for the high-confidence plays.

FD is also running the free parley promo, so I went YOLO with Josh Allen O43.5 rush yds / Knox 50+ rec yds / St-Brown O75.5 rec yds / Pollard 20+ rec yds / Slayton 60+ rec yds / Stephenson 30+ rec yds / NE ML for a whopping +17500.  At least I get my 0.4U back lol.   BOL!

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On 11/21/2022 at 11:32 PM, Broncofan said:

Well, a rough MNF on what's been a solid bounceback week.   Aiyuk the only guy who didn't get fed (but did get 2 TD's lol).   That's always going to be the tougher part of predicting the SF O.    Getting the under on Conner was solid predicting gamescript, though - and only Ray-Ray McLeod didn't get any meaningful snaps in the RZ, the 3 others did (and Juwan Jennings had a TD go through his hands, oh well).  Best move was to keep ARI at 0.5U plays lol.

So it's 1-1 on player props, and 0-5 on TD props, and -4U for the day...still a nice bounceback week at +13.9U, on to Turkey Day!

 

WEEK 11 MNF 

ATS/ ML & RACE

27-21-2 ATS, 9-14 ML/RACE, BALANCE +1.6U. (+2.0U Week 11 SNF, 3-1-1).                                                                                                   .                      
PLAYER PROPS

78-78,  BALANCE  +46.4U (+3.2U Week 11 SNF, 9-6) - Now 39-34 in 2U+ plays, Week 5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Week 6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Week 7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Week 8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Week 10 Kmet huge payoff, Week 11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins)


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +109.4U (+8.7U Week 11 SNF - win Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets Week 1 TNF, Josh Palmer +300 Week 2 TNF, Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF Week 3, Latavius Murray +1000 & Josh Reynolds +500 1U & Jody Fortson +900 1U & SF DST +1000 0.4U, Week 5 Velus Jones +1800 0.5U, Durham Smythe +700 1U & Trautman +800 1U, Week 6 Jake Ferguson +1200 Week 7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Week 8 TNF Isiah Likely +700 Week 9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Week 10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300 & Week 11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's).    
 

TOTAL:  +157.4U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U)

 

On 11/22/2022 at 7:42 PM, Broncofan said:

I agree with both, I'll add one more, and the early player props & TD longshots for Turkey Day so far:

ATS/ML

DET +9.5 vs. BUF - I have no illusions that DET wins this - but going 7+ pts on Turkey Day, plus the DET D is playing so much better - and they have a much more diverse O with DJ Chark back, and Swift actually able to help.   The OL is very good, so I really think they can keep this to a 27-23 type game.  I won't say ML at all - but I'm comfortable with the points here.

DAL -8.5 vs. NYG - hate to say it, I love what the Gmen have done, but losing their 3 best CB's AND losing Wan'dale Robinson is a bridge too far.   I will admit that DAL's coaching issues and Dak throwing up duds is ALWAYS possible, but I think this is shaping up to be a big mismatch this week.

NE ML +120 @ MIN - Cousins in prime time, then no Darrisaw.   O centers around 1 key guy in pass game - what BB excels at taking away.   MIN power run game....jeez this is a pick I hate with the heart, but my brain screams to take.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Josh Allen O40.5 rush yds 2U, 60+ rush yds +280, 80+ +750 FD 0.5U - while DET's D has improved overall (rush D and pass D except vs. slot guys - see Wan'dale Robinson), they are still very vulnerable to running QB's - Danny Jones hit his prop, and would have hit the 50+ yd alt line if one was offered.   So I'm taking Allen's O40.5, and can't resist 60+ and a big 0.5U dip into 80+ (which Allen's done 1x, but again, I expect this more than a Singletary / Cook rush day).

Dawson Knox O34.5U 2U FD - no alt lines are out yet, but I'm good with this very low line.  Knox is now the security blanket, not the slot or RB, so I've got to take this vs. a leaky DET TE D.   If there are alt lines, I'll definitely be interested.

Ceedee Lamb O70.5 rec yds 2U, 90+ rec yds +200, 110+ rec yds +420 0.5U FD - That NYG decimated DB corps is going to have such a hard time covering Ceedee.   Remember his 88 yard day on MNF was against their best guys...and the big 40+ yd drop was included.    Yes, I know he had a slow week last week - but it was the Pollard / Zeke / DAL D show.     Given the complete patchwork secondary, I have to back a Ceedee week here.  

Tony Pollard O17.5 rec yds  2U DK - I'm disappointed I don't have B365, because I would be HAMMERING the 25+/50+ alt line props here.   As it is, an easy 2U play.

Rhamondre Stevenson O27.5 rec yds  2U FD/DK - like Pollard, there will be no alt lines (as they only offer rush alt lines for him), but man, this seems so easy, with his pass work floor and MIN's vulnerability.   If there was a 40/60 alt line, I'd smash it (and yes, that means the B365 50+ line for those who can still get it)


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Khalil Shakir +900 0.5U - Shakir's snaps have dropped, but the reality is that Isiah McKenzie's play has declined, and Shakir still presents a big body.   Only worth a small 0.5U stab, but it's the only longshot TD on BUF with any legit PT and RZ snaps, so I'll get a piece of the action here.   

Darius Slayton +310 DK +375 / +4500 2+ SI (0.8U/0.2U) - I know, I know - Trevon Diggs is actually playing well.   ZERO argument, and why I'm laying off any yard/catch props.  But Slayton's play has really elevated - and with Wan'dale out, I have to believe he'll get RZ looks.   ESP with a gamescript that could be catchup.   But he's not my only G-men play lol...

Richie James +500 FD +700 / +1100 2+ SI (0.8U/0.2U)  - the other guy who has guaranteed looks.   James benefits from likely less attention as well.  EDIT - and holy **** SI has this crazy +700/+1100 2+ line (0.8/0.2U it is)  Worth a shot, and finally we have....

Isaiah Hodgins +850 FD  - WHO???  Well, believe it or not, he's the guy with a 50+ snap share the last 2 games, and that's only going up with Robinson's injury.  Basically, I'm not sure if he plays big slot or not, or he goes out wide with James inside, but he was groomed to play big slot in BUF before he moved over to NYG.   So basically I'm willing to invest in all 3 WR spots.   

NE DST +700 FD 0.5U - not only is NE's D been great, but you combine the loss of Darrisaw, the fact MIN has ONE receiving weapon (which NE makes it easier to wipe out).  That's a way to get a pick-6/strip-sack 6 with Cousins.   And then you add NE's DVOA top 3 ST unit..and MIN at bottom 12.   So yeah, I'll take the small +700 stab, and frankly, feel better about that than any longshot play on either team.   

_________________________

OK that's all for now, at 20U that's probably a good thing.  BOL & have a good Turkey Day for all the US folk. 

 

 

 

 

On 11/23/2022 at 6:04 PM, Broncofan said:

Dawson Knox's alt lines on FD have come out and it's 50+ rec yds +180 & 70+ yds +420 0.5U, so taking the extra 1.5U as usual for the high-confidence plays.

FD is also running the free parley promo, so I went YOLO with Josh Allen O43.5 rush yds / Knox 50+ rec yds / St-Brown O75.5 rec yds / Pollard 20+ rec yds / Slayton 60+ rec yds / Stephenson 30+ rec yds / NE ML for a whopping +17500.  At least I get my 0.4U back lol.   BOL!

 

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Hodgins TD called back, Slayton down at half yard line......gawd.   Not to mention Ceedee losing about 30-40 yards in bad throws from Dak.   Talk about cursed 1H.   

 

Well it was a solid Turkey Day, but man, it could have been a banner day.    4 swings:

-Josh Allen was 2 yds short of 80+ rush yds and a +750 0.5U 3rd alt line play, and he had it until he stumbled on that last play...or we had just got OT.   I couldn't believe DET mismanaged the clock that way.  I also think Knox could have made his prop with OT...sigh, oh well. 4.3U swing

-Ceedee Lamb was also only 4 yards short of his +680 0.5U 3rd alt line.  3.9U swing

-If DAL's K makes the FG inside of 2 mins, DAL still covers -8.5 (and -10 for those who bet today).   Only a 2U swing, but it stung the most except the last one here....

-Finally, Isaiah Hodgins gets a TD voided on a very iffy penalty call, and Darius Slayton gets pulled down on the half yard line.  MAN.  Literally a 10U swing there. 

Still, even with the above, profitable day, but could have been a monster day with 20U+ swing.    Oh well, never turn your nose on profit....

ATS/ML - 1-1 ATS, 0-1 ML - -1U.

PLAYER PROPS - 3-2, +4.8U - again, so close to hitting the big 3rd line props for both Allen/Lamb, but still a big day for both.   Knox's prop was killed by BUF's LT leaving the game, so Knox suddenly had to chip block on Hutchinson, and then run flat routes - instead of the diverse seam / wheel / other TE routes.    Pollard was just a bad call today.   Oh well, way it goes - no problem with 4.8U profit lol.

LONGSHOT TD - 1-5, +3.2U - unlucky that Hodgins nor Slayton got TD's on separate drives, but I'll take Richie James +700 at the end of the game LOL.    


In the end, can't be mad at +7.0U profit today, just soooo close to a monster day.   Still, feel way better that the process is back on track evaluation-wise - let's get it again on Sunday!

 

WEEK 12 TURKEY DAY

ATS/ ML & RACE

26-22-2 ATS, 9-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +0.6U. (-1.0U Week 12 TURKEY DAY, 1-2). 

PLAYER PROPS

81-80,  BALANCE  +51.2U (+4.8U Week 12 TURKEY DAY, 3-2) - Now 42-36 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's)


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-69, BALANCE +112.6U (+3.2U Week 12 TURKEY DAY - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700)
 

TOTAL:  +164.4U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - +7.0U)

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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7 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Anyone doing those parlay bonuse promotions on fanduel this weekend? I think if you do 200 dollars worth of parlays you get $100 in site credits. I know parlays are hard but if you hit 1 or 2 along with the hundred dollar bonus may not be a bad gamble 

Keep in mind you can’t keep the credits. You can win the bet return on the credits but you’re not getting the $ back.  
 

Bet 200 in parleys 

Lose 200.   
 

Get 100 in credits.   Even if you recover all those bets in single plays - you only get the winnings.   
 

Win 95 bucks in single plays.   Still out 105.  
 

It sounds great in theory but it’s stil a massive sucker bet.   The other part - they usually don’t let you include plays of -200 or lower payout odds.    So you can’t juice the parley with more certain legs.   
 

I still do them but I’m using the free offers, or maybe 0.5U of my own $ when I’m betting 25-30U in a slate.     It’s just not a sustainable way to make $.  

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Posted (edited)

A lot of games without player props but some are trickling  out so early bird gets the worm (or better line hopefully): 

Already posted the ATS pick 2 days ago - adding 2 DK / SI props right away to take 2U each and 4 TD props on FD & 1 on a Canuck book (the Score): 

ATS/ML & RACE 

EARLY

NYJ -4-5 (now -6) - not just NYJ O better with no Zach Wilson; I don’t think Justin Fields will play; but even if he does I don’t think he runs.  Against the Jets pass D that’s a major issue.  Would back -6 TBH. 
 

PLAYER PROPS 

EARLY

1.  D’onta Foreman o51.5 rush yds 2U, 70+ rush yds +240, 90+ rush yds +520 0.5U FD - DEN run D def vulnerable.   

2.  Terry Mclaurin o60.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ rec yds +200, 190+ rec yds +400 0.5U FD - Taylor Heinecke loves him he’s had 8 targets 4 of last 5 games (7 in the other one).   ATL gives up 9 targets / 90 yds per game to WR1.   

3. Treylon Burks O40.5 rec yds, 60+ rec yds +220, 80+ rec yds +520 0.5U FD - with CIN's top 3 CB's out, and DJ Reader back, I expect TEN won't be leaning just on Derrick Henry, so I think the breakout continues for Burks.

4.  Joe Burrow O280.5 pass yds 2U FD- TEN #1 run D by DVOA, pass funnel D, Mixon's out.   Pretty simple calculus.  

5.  Michael Carter O19.5 rec yds FD 4U - just a ridiculously low number given he's the pass catcher and Mike White targets RB's 30+ percent of the time.   If I was on B365 I might even hammer the 50+ prop for 2U, it's that juicy.

LATE

6. Josh Palmer o57.5 Rec yds 2U DK, 80+ Rec yds +240 & 100+ +520 FD 0.5U - when Keenan Allen plays and Mike Williams doesn’t - Palmer goes off.   Sad that FD doesn’t have alt lines here.   

7.  James Conner O63.5 rush yds vs. LAC 2U FD - LAC's run D is still very vulnerable, and with Kyler Murray back but nursing a hammy, that opens up more work for Conner.  If the early slate is going well, I'll be looking at the 80+ / 100+ alt lines, but for now it's just a 2U play.

SNF 

8.  Aaron Jones o3.5 catches +100 DK 2U - I do think PHI wins - so that’s an autobet. 

MNF

9.  Pat Friermuth o43.5 rec yds DK 2U, 60+ rec yds +180 & 80+ +400 FD 0.5U - he’s the top target and those numbers are just too low.   Definitely another high confidence play.  
 

 

Player props I’m still waiting to target - it's only Rachaad White who's left - Jeff Wilson at 80.5 rush yds took almost all the value away, so leaving that alone (plus not sure he holds up with full workload either).   Still, that's 26U of player props on the line (although "only" 20.5U is daytime)....but still, maybe that's enough lol

 

LONGSHOT TD 

1.  Damiere Byrd +600 / +9500 2+ FD (0.8U / 0.2U) - catch-up game script and pass funnel D.   Odds +350 or less everywhere else. 

2.  Khadarel Hodge +1600 FD - see above.  +650 or less everywhere else.  

3.  MyCole Pruitt +700 FD - top receiving TE with Pitts on IR - +300 or less everywhere else.  

4.  David Bell +900 FD - slot D TB vulnerable and Bell snaps increasing.   +400 or less everywhere else.  

5.  Isiah Likely +800 Score - wow, can't believe this line.   Andrews is going to play, but they love to use both guys, esp in the RZ.   No 2+ TD props, if it's +8000 or better, probably will take a 0.2U shot.  EDIT:   Likely is inactive, so bet voids.   Instead, I'm going with @adamq's Teagan Quitoriano +1200 / +12000 2+ DK play for 0.8U/0.2U, given the increasing snap share he's enjoying (mega props here). 

LATE

6&7.  Brandon Bolden +2100 & Jakob Johnson +1900 0.5U each FD - everyone is on the news that Josh Jacobs to hammer the lines on Ameer Abdullah and Zamir White - so there's no value.  But with the committee, there's no guarantee those are the guys near the RZ - so taking near +2000 stabs on the all-purpose Bolden, who McDaniels trusts a ton, and the FB Johnson, I'll go 0.5U each and hope we see a zigzag play (and especially since it's McD, that's always possible).

8.  Jody Fortson +750 FD  & Justin Watson +700 SI - Juju's back, but Hardman/Toney are out.   And again, we see 12 formation a ton.   We know Fortson's a guy they like to match up...gotta take this.   Likewise, Watson rings in at +200 or worse odds everywhere else - gotta take that +700 play. 

9.  Juwan Johnson +410 / +4300 2+ 1.2U/0.3U FD - other books now have Juwan at +200 or less.  I won't complain, I'll just KEEP HITTING THIS.

MNF

10.  Pat Freirmuth +380 / +3500 1.2U / 0.3U FD - since Claypool got traded, he's become the top target.  I can't believe the yard / TD props are so juiced.  Without Darius Leonard and losing Kwitty Paye, the Colts D is particularly vulnerable to the TE since.    Hammering this.

So that's 11U in TD props....maybe that's enough for now lol.

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Posted (edited)
20 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

@Broncofan you think Noah Fant +400 td prop is worth a stab against the raiders who are poor against Te? Only reason I'm hesitant is Dissly gets a lot of playing time too.

I don't like props with split share guys either....unless you're getting better odds than that.   I was hoping Fant would be +300 and Dissly was like, +700.   Then I'd have been on Dissly.   Dissly is a much better blocker, which makes play-action more in play.   Can't really back either guy at those odds.

It's only for Canuck betters, but Score had Isaiah Likely at +800.   Wow.   Gotta go there.

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