Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Decided to add 2 more guys for MNF gotta trust my evals

I like it Shooters shoot Campbell is gonna break record's tonight bc I'm going against him in Fantasy. 

[adamq]

5 hours ago, PincheJimmy said:

Gonna be in Vegas Wednesday, any suggestions for the Buf vs NE game to make me some 💰 😎

Under 😛

[SmittyBacall]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Decided to add 2 more guys for MNF gotta trust my evals: 

Pat Freirmuth O43.5 rec yds 2U / 60+ rec yds +240 & / 80+ rec yds +480 0.5U FD - written up before. 
 

Parris Campbell o46.5 Rec yds 2U 60+ Rec yds +180 80+ +400 0.5U FD - slot guys give PIT a ton of trouble. 
   
Michael Pittman o67.5 yds 2U 90+ Rec yds +240 110 + Rec yds  +480 0.5U FD - Pittman goes into the slot and number 1 WR go off.  
 

It’s a hedge by taking both target hogs.    TJ Watt is my main fear but I have to go with my evals.  So that’s 14U tonight (gulp).   BOL!                                    

Not looking hot. Need a big finish.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SmittyBacall said:

Not looking hot. Need a big finish.

Well, that one is on me - I didn't take IND pass props, just TD before - and then couldn't resist taking the props, and 3.5U ones to boot.    Losing Friermuth at 3/39 for 43.5 is unlucky, but the eval was decent.  The TD props were very good for Woods & Friermuth, both saw EZ targets.    And in the end, Pittman almost got there - but frankly, it was just a bad play to back yardage props with Matt Ryan, the IND OL & TJ Watt back - PIT's big pass D problems were way worse b4 Watt returned.   Worst part - I knew this, but ignored it.  That's on me. 

Rule of thumb - if I don't see the mega play right away....stay away, or at least just 1U.   7U of tonight is totally on me by going with the IND WR props - that's a classic case of tilting from yesterday's bad beats with Michael Carter, Aaron Jones & Josh Palmer & the Juwan-Johnson 2 TD drops / Fortson overthrow wide open.   Still, those things happen - being on tilt and betting the IND WR's after passing on them all week, THAT is on me.

Still, I'll take it on the chin - thing about gambling, you can always learn.   

____________________________

In that respect, a few plays that stood out to me next week I already earmarked before tonight's game - Josh Allen rush props vs. NE (always worth taking), Rhamondre Stephenson rec yd props (anything low 30's is value IMO), Derrick Henry vs PHI's run D (duh), Tee Higgins vs. KC, Garrett Wilson vs. MIN (much safer with Mike White), and Keenan Allen props vs. LV (and if they're under 20 yds, Gerald Everett), plus the BAL rush props vs. DEN's D.     I'd be floored if the Josh Jacobs line wasn't something outright ridiculously high.    The 3 spots where guys coming off bad games might get a low # and thus find value - Dameon Pierce vs. CLE (and their run D) & Christian Kirk vs. DET (slot vulnerability) & AJ Brown vs. TEN's pass D (coming off the SNF flu game).

I'm mentioning this now - because those stood out to me right away.    For Week 14, I'll wait to see if the #'s show me value, and I'll do as I've done each week - but unlike MNF, not going to add more player props, to limit the risk I'm on tilt (which happens to everyone).   This will be a decent test on the high-confidence plays.   

 

For tonight, though......turns a +7.8U Week 13 (with over 20U swings in player props sooo close / injury L's & 13U in dropped / overthrown TD chances before today) to a -6.2U Week 13 final (-14U tonight - worst single night ever).   Still, that's the game....but yeah, this one's on me.     

 

WEEK 12 TURKEY DAY

ATS/ ML & RACE

27-22-2 ATS, 9-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +1.6U. (EVEN Week 12 to MNF, 2-2). 

PLAYER PROPS

84-85,  BALANCE  +41.9U (-7.5U Week 12 to MNF, 6-10) - Now 42-39 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's)

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-72, BALANCE +107.1U (-2.3U Week 12 FINAL - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700)
 

TOTAL:  +151.2U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>).

Edited November 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Give it up to DK & FD to have TNF props out....lol.

So the card of updated plays:

ATS/ML

BUF -5 - I know Von Miller is out, and I know Josh Allen isn't quite 100 percent.   IMO won't matter - as the BUF team is such a terrible matchup for this NE team.   

PLAYER PROPS

Josh Allen O43.5 rush yds FD 2U, 60+ rush yds & 80+ rush yd props coming - even his arm isn't 100 percent, he's such a problem for NE's D.  

Devin Singletary O53.5 rush yds DK - single play, but as NE will look to take away the pass O, this translates to more Singletary rush opps. 

Rhamondre Stephenson O28.5 rec yds DK 2U - man, I wish there was an alt line prop we could play, I'd be on 40+/60+ easily.   B365 bettors, take note.

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

Khalil Shakir +1300 FD 0.5U - I'm taking 0.5U now, but I'm probably going to take 0.5U more - but will wait to see if the FD line balloons in the last day, like we often see.   I'm not waiting until later only because the injury report could change with news there's a bug going through the Bills locker - Shakir missed practice on Sunday, but that also means he's far more likely to be OK by Thursday (whereas if any of the top 3 WR's miss the game, or are really under the weather - major opp for Shakir).   He's already +600 on DK, so major value here IMO.

I'm following my set rule to only play the obvious high-confidence plays I ID'd right away - that's Allen rush yd & Rhamondre rec yd props.   Singletary's importance merits a 1U play - but not a high-confidence play, not until I'm sure the tilt effect isn't ongoing (LOL).  BOL!

Edited November 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[adamq]

Lfg!

Seems like these primetime games have really put us down this year. Hopefully the weather will cooperate and we don't get a repeat of last year with these 2 teams

[thebestever6]

Knox at 30.5 yards seems criminal. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, adamq said:

Lfg!

Seems like these primetime games have really put us down this year. Hopefully the weather will cooperate and we don't get a repeat of last year with these 2 teams

TBH the issue is that prime time games should only have 1-2 big plays.   If you look at the Sunday cards, I might have 6-8 plays...from 12+ games.    Going with 3+ plays all at 3.5U alt lines is probably taking things too far.   

As we get to more single-game / double-game slates, this becomes especially important to remember.   I have no problem with the Friermuth L, he actually got his EZ target, and the unexpected PIT run game success, combined with their 3 and outs going run-heavy, just killed the play - but the reasoning and analysis was still OK.   Sometimes you lose.    The problem IMO is when we look for extra plays - nothing wrong if it's a single unit play, but compounding it with alt lines was def a bad call.   

The volatility with alt line plays is if you hit the alt lines, it's boom time - but it's supposed to be on supremely high-confidence plays.  Sometimes they're last minute because the lines aren't out, or there's injury news (often both).    But if it doesn't strike me as boom right away....that's probably telling me something.

[Broncofan]

32 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

Knox at 30.5 yards seems criminal. 

The issue that killed Knox last week was the LT Dawkins leaving the game.  Once that happened, Knox either stayed in to block, or chipped and played flat routes - not his usual tree that included seam / wheel routes / middle of field.   Until you know Dawkins is OK, at best it's a 1U play, but I want to see the injury report and actives/inactives.  

Edited November 29, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

@Broncofan they have Allen's alternate rush yards on fanduel, and Stevensons alternate receiving yards on fanduel 

[Broncofan]

54 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

@Broncofan they have Allen's alternate rush yards on fanduel, and Stevensons alternate receiving yards on fanduel 

I saw that - taking 60/80 with Allen and 50/70 with Stephenson.    Singletary I’ll leave at 1U.    

[SmittyBacall]

Prop I’ll be eying:

David Montgomery over rushing yards + milestones. Predicated on Fields’ return. Herbert still on IR. GB dead last rush defense DVOA. Ran for 122 on 15 carries in first match up. 

I’ll be adding to this.

[thebestever6]

Thorton is +275 to score on fanduel and +500 to score on bet365 something is telling me to lay a Shekel down on it.

[SmittyBacall]

Anyone else like Tennessee to cover this week?

TEN +5.5 + ML (+195). TEN coming off a loss, great as a road dog. PHI defense funnels through the ground game. Ten D 1# DVOA versus the rush vs Hurts and co. Also, just looking at Philly’s remaining schedule, they really don’t have another tough game left. If I had to pick them taking another loss this year it would be this game. Gut feeling. Ben Jones likely back this week, and hopefully Autry can go.

Edited November 30, 2022 by SmittyBacall

[Broncofan]

40 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

Anyone else like Tennessee to cover this week?

TEN +5.5 + ML (+195). TEN coming off a loss, great as a road dog. PHI defense funnels through the ground game. Ten D 1# DVOA versus the rush vs Hurts and co. Also, just looking at Philly’s remaining schedule, they really don’t have another tough game left. If I had to pick them taking another loss this year it would be this game. Gut feeling. Ben Jones likely back this week, and hopefully Autry can go.

I think TEN is very live, for 3 reasons:

1.   As long as Jordan Davis is out, the PHI run D is still a mess.     Davis is eligible to return off IR, but the Eagles haven't opened up his practice window.   If they haven't opened it up by today/tomorrow, it's really iffy to think he's playing this week.   

2.  Losing CGJ and not having Avante Maddox leaves them vulnerable in the slot and in the middle.   While TEN's pass attack isn't at all what you'd consider advanced, that helps Treylon Burks (who yes, stands out as another play with the news - and he's playing about 25 percent of his snaps in the slot, and IIRC that's because TEN goes 2 WR a lot - until Kyle Philips returns, that's likely to stay).

3.  While TEN can be beat in the air, their ability to stop the run is unquestioned.   #1 Run by DVOA. 

Add in the excellent coaching that Vrabel provides (ironically, the only reason they didn't get a chance to tie last week's game was an uncharacteristic dumb penalty of plowing the snapper on the FG that would have made it a 7-pt game but given the O the ball back with just under 2 mins to go).    You know my rule of thumb - back TEN as a dog, fade/pass as a fave.   Nothing changes here IMO.