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BStanRamFan

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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DK has a glitch - Josh Allen's rush props are now up to O44.5 rush yds - but 50+ rush yds alt line is +175 - I have to add 3U instead of 1U there, given it's at least 60 pts extra value.    If I lose, I lose, but that's literally so off base.   BOL!

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adamq

adamq

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Couple longshot TD to consider... 

Jalen Reagor +1600

Jamal Agnew +1100

Expecting both to be pretty high scoring games, worth a shot imo

 

8 hours ago, Trojan said:

I have my two DK lineups made for tomorrow morning, both similar.
QB: Josh Allen || Joe Burrow
RB: Dalvin Cook
RB: DOnta Foreman
WR: Garrett Wilson || Jamarr Chase
WR: Gabe Davis
WR: Jerry Jeudy || Donovan Peoples-Jones
TE: Chig Okonkwo
RB: Isiah Pacheco
DST: Cowboys

I haven't been big on daily fantasy... that looks solid to me though. Here's the lineup I just came up with on FD

 

Goff,

Dalvin Cook, Pollard, Jordan Mason

Robert Woods, ASRB, Kirk

Dulcich, Ravens D

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adamq

adamq

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On 12/10/2022 at 12:34 AM, adamq said:

 

I could definitely see CMC go off, and he's a guy that could break a 70 yarder, but I also wouldn't be surprised to see him get 14 carries for 65 yards and Mason get 10-12 rushes

Well 14 carries but he took it for 119 yards. Shoulda factored in the injuries on bucs d, but couldn't have known Vea would have gotten hurt early.

Also should have known Kyle wouldn't let anyone but deebo and cmc handle the workload while the game was still in question though. CMC alt rush props were really juicy

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thebestever6

thebestever6

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41 minutes ago, adamq said:

Well 14 carries but he took it for 119 yards. Shoulda factored in the injuries on bucs d, but couldn't have known Vea would have gotten hurt early.

Also should have known Kyle wouldn't let anyone but deebo and cmc handle the workload while the game was still in question though. CMC alt rush props were really juicy

yeah today was not the day to go after the cmc receiving props big let down what were the rush props at?

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adamq

adamq

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8 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

yeah today was not the day to go after the cmc receiving props big let down what were the rush props at?

I dont remember exactly, but I think 100+ was in the +650 range

 

 

For tonight I put a bit on Smythe to score and Allen alt rec yards.. going to watch Stone Smartt and Cedrick Wilson for a possible live td stab

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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On 12/8/2022 at 4:42 PM, Broncofan said:

OK I have a few Sunday early plays, that I want to get ahead of, and yes, feel free to just do the main plays, especially with one of them (you can guess which one lol):

ATS/ML

EARLY

BAL ML +130 @ PIT - I took this as soon as it opened.  I get it, no Lamar.  But Tyler Huntley actually keeps this O serviceable.    And the BAL D is legit.   

NYJ +10 @ BUF - don't get me wrong, I think BUF wins.   But the NYJ D is legit, and BUF's D without Von Miller is definitely more vulnerable.   I just feel comfortable it's a BUF 6-7 point win here. 

DET ML vs MIN ML (WAITING)- the public is hammering MIN at + money - which is likely going to swing DET to + money by Sunday.   I'll wait to the very end, then take the Lions.    It's not just that DET had MIN beaten on Week 3 at MIN, until horrific Hackett-like game management by Dan Campbell gave that game away (but yes, it does help the evaluation here).  It's that DET's OL really negates MIN's pressure, and exposes the secondary.   On the flip side, the DET secondary is playing much better since they fired the DB coach and they've relied more on a 4-man rush to get pressure instead of a blitz-heavy scheme.    

LATE

DEN +9.5 vs. KC - again, I don't think this is a DEN W.   But traditionally, even with bad DEN teams - we keep it close at home vs. KC.     If ppl want to avoid this, no problem, understood (LOL).

CAR +4 @ SEA - this one's VERY dependent on CAR having D'onta Foreman back.  EDIT:  With him off the injury report, I'm on board. 

SF -3.5 vs. TAM - I know, I know - Brock Purdy.   But this is about how dominant the SF D is.   And on O, Kyle Shanahan having a week to prepare, and using CMC/Kittle/Aiyuk (Deebo not so sure if he plays yet) to hide Purdy.    And unlike NO, they're not going to give away the game late. 

With 6U in play for ATS/ML, I also took the free 0.4U parley and took this 6-leg for +5200 (DET ML at -115) lol.

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY

Garrett Wilson O61.5 rec yds DK 2U, 80+ rec yds +180 & 100+ rec yds +360 0.5U FD -  - BUF's zone scheme is one that Wilson will absolutely tear up.   Easy play to go 3.5U here.

Josh Allen O40.5 rush yds DK 2U, 60+ rush yds +240 & 80+rush yds +650 0.5U FD - Allen went for 80+ last time, and given how good the CB's are, I don't see why BUF would change the plan here.

Danny Jones O32.5 rush yds 2U DK - there likely won't be an alt line out on FD; but we know that when PHI's rush D vs. RB's improves, the running QB does better.    

Chigoziem Okonkwo O25.5 rec yds DK 2U - with TEN down to 2 healthy WR's (Woods & Ikhine-Westbrook), have to go with the TE they're using more in 12 formation with Hooper.   Pays to shop here, he's at O33.5 on FD.  

LATE

Jerry Jeudy O51.5 rec yds DK 2U - if ppl want to pass because it depends on Russell Wilson, no problem.  But Jeudy is the #1 WR is rec yds-per-route-run vs. man coverage this year - and KC uses a ton of man coverage.    Health & Wilson makes this risky - but Jeudy went 4-65 on TWENTY snaps (and 4 targets)  last week - with a near-full snap count, and 10+ targets,this is a smash spot.  If the early slate goes well, I may even add a 0.5U play on 110+ (which will likely be in the +1000 range).  But let's see how the early slate goes first lol.  EDIT:   While we were all waiting, the line got pushed up to O60.5 rec yds - that takes ALL the value on the alt lines now, and with Jeudy's PT still unconfirmed if he's on a pitch count, better to just stick with the 2U play unless you got the B365 early 70/90 (which I can't get).

Christian McCaffrey O37.5 rec yds FD 2U, likely 60+ +300 & 80+ rec yds +700 0.5U FD- same idea as Jeudy, except with a great O and backup QB.   But Purdy being a backup, he was VERY content in dumping off to CMC.   Frankly, against TAM's pass O, that's not a bad idea either.    Like Jeudy, if the early slate goes well, I may in fact dive in 0.5U more at 100+ rec yds, which is likely going to be close to the +1000 range (+900 minimum).

 

SNF/MNF

Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +200 & 100+ rec yds +420 0.5U FD - I know that Mike Williams is likely to be back - but I also know Herbert still looks Allen's way.    As DK doesn't have the props out yet, I'll lock it in now.

Hunter Henry O27.5 rec yds 2U FD - ARI is terrible vs. TE's, I'm not going to go alt lines yet, but as DK has O30.5, I'll take this right now for 2U on FD.

Other props that aren't out that I'm still targeting - Christian Kirk props vs. TEN (not out until Lawrence news is known), Charger WR props vs. MIA on SNF and Rhamondre Stevenson rec yds props for MNF (yes got burned, but flukey set of circumstances, and ARI's D is very RB vulnerable).  So far we've got 22U in player props so definitely enough for now.

 


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

EARLY

Tyler Conklin +600 / +7000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - while BUF's zone D hasn't given up TD's to a TE this year, they've been far more vulnerable at CB overall.  With Tre' White back, I expect more looks at the TE, and Conklin is very much a trusted guy with NYJ's O, and Mike White looked his way a fair amount of targets (7) and a RZ target as well.    Worth the odds here.

Chigoziem Okonkwo +500 / +5500 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) FD - with no Burks, Woods & Ikhine-Westbrook aren't get RZ threats - Hooper's odds don't provide nearly the same value, for a guy who's likely to get a few looks.

Isaiah Hodgins +400 DK 0.5U- NYG's new 2nd WR definitely gets a better look as a RZ threat compared to both Slayton & Richie James, I like his chances much better at the same odds.

LATE

Jody Fortson +800 / +9000 2+ (0.8U/0.2U) - DEN's TE D is so leaky, gotta go after Fortson again.   Hopefully Mahomes doesn't miss him when he targets him like last week lol.

Albert Okwuegbunam +1900 DK 0.5U - Because of all the DEN WR injuries, and with the extra attention Dulcich is drawing, Hackett's already said he's going to be active - given the matchup problem he can present, and Dulcich drawing the attention, that's worth 0.5U.   


SNF/MNF

Donald Parham +1100 FD - you know the drill, he's back, I'm going to target this as the Chargers deliberately look his way in the RZ.

That's it for now with 5U in TD plays.....hoping we find more value in player & TD props as more get released tomorrow/Sat.   BOL tonight!

 

On 12/9/2022 at 10:13 PM, thebestever6 said:

If I were to take a rb play I'd probably take Foreman to get 65.5 yards against Seattle's poor run D. -120 though.

 

On 12/9/2022 at 10:51 PM, Broncofan said:

That's a very reasonable bet to take FWIW.   If the early slate goes well, I'll probably add on (as I'm taking CAR +4 based on Foreman's being active, kinda makes sense).

 

18 hours ago, Broncofan said:

DK has a glitch - Josh Allen's rush props are now up to O44.5 rush yds - but 50+ rush yds alt line is +175 - I have to add 3U instead of 1U there, given it's at least 60 pts extra value.    If I lose, I lose, but that's literally so off base.   BOL!

 

Man, Allen 50+ props and Wilson's 80+ props were sooo close, and CMC's prop falls agonizingly short.   But this WAS THE ATS/ML WEEK - I went 6-0, for +6.4U, but also hit the 6-leg +5200 0.4U free parley on FD - for a MASSIVE 20.8U win and +27.2U week on ATS/ML picks.    Won't lie, figured I was going 5-1 after DEN fell behind 27-0 LOL - THANK YOU JERRY JEUDY AND DEN PASS D.

The tally:

ATS/ML - 5-0 ATS, 1-0 ML, +6.4U on straight picks, and the +5200 0.4U parley gets me 20.8U, so net +27.2U (YEAAAH).

PLAYER PROPS - 4-2, but because I only hit the main prop and ZERO secondary props, and I lost my added stake on 3U Josh Allen 50+ yds (and he got stuffed on 50+ yards 4x at 47-48 yds....so painful, combined with Garrett Wilson getting to 78 yards lol).    So that's -3U on Sunday.

LONGSHOT TD PROPS - 2-4, with Okonkwo and Hodgins coming painfullly close to 2 TD's as well (oh well).  Still, we'll take it, so that gets us a nice tidy +2U profit. 

This is the rare week where the player props were all so close to sweeping and/or hitting the 1st alt line - Allen's extra staked 50+ yd +175 being the truly painful L....but the 6-leg ATS/ML sweep makes it a banner day, at +26.2U for today (and +25.7U for the week). 

 

_____________________________________

WEEK 14 to SNF

ATS/ ML & RACE

35-24-2 ATS, 11-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +30.2U. (+27.2U Week 14 to SNF, 5-0 ATS, 1-0 ML and 6-leg +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

96-94,  BALANCE  +41.2U (-2.0 WEEK 14 to SNF - Now 53-48 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 only main props hit 5-2 to SNF)


LONGSHOT TD PROPS

22-72, BALANCE +115.1U  (+0.5U Week 13 FINAL - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500)
 

TOTAL:  +186.5U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 to SNF - +25.7U).

 

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

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OK my plays left for SNF & MNF (I added the Mostert & TD prop tonight with Parham out):

PLAYER PROPS

SNF

Raheem Mostert O45.5 rush yds 2U, 60+ rush yds +180 & 80+ rush yds +400 0.5U FD - LAC's run D is so vulnerable, I'll be disappointed if this is Jerry Wilson's night, because someone is smashing their line on the MIA RB stable.

Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +200, 100+ rec yds +420 0.5U FD - from before

MNF

Hunter Henry O27.5 rec yds 2U - from before

Rhamondre Stevenson O33.5 rec yds 2U  (EDIT: FIXED) - finally added, sad we don't have alt lines for this with ARI's D vulnerable to the RB.

LONGSHOT TD'S 

Tre McKitty +1000 FD 0.5U - sad this isn't Parham, I was ALL OVER him.   Out of loyalty to LAC 2nd TE's, I'll go here lol.


BOL!

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