Broncofan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) 15 hours ago, Broncofan said: OK my plays left for SNF & MNF (I added the Mostert & TD prop tonight with Parham out): PLAYER PROPS SNF Raheem Mostert O45.5 rush yds 2U, 60+ rush yds +180 & 80+ rush yds +400 0.5U FD - LAC's run D is so vulnerable, I'll be disappointed if this is Jerry Wilson's night, because someone is smashing their line on the MIA RB stable. Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 80+ rec yds +200, 100+ rec yds +420 0.5U FD - from before MNF Hunter Henry O27.5 rec yds 2U - from before Rhamondre Stevenson O33.5 rec yds 2U (EDIT: FIXED) - finally added, sad we don't have alt lines for this with ARI's D vulnerable to the RB. LONGSHOT TD'S Tre McKitty +1000 FD 0.5U - sad this isn't Parham, I was ALL OVER him. Out of loyalty to LAC 2nd TE's, I'll go here lol. BOL! Same 2 player props; adding 2 long shot TD props tonight for MNF. Weird lines came out today and already getting steamed (TD props) but Henry’s alt line for DK came out and are crazy. PLAYER PROPS Hunter Henry o30.5 Rec yds 2U & 50+ Rec yds +285 & 75+ Rec yds +750 0.5U DK. Ari 30th vs TE with 8 Rec / 64 yard per game average. And no Jakobi Meyers which means more work for Henry (& Stevenson imo) - alt lines are WAY out of line. Usually those would be +220 & +600 range. Rhamondre Stevenson o33.5 Rec yds 2U FD/DK - from before. To show how skewed the Henry alt lines are - his are 50+ +120 & 75+ +280 (no thanks lol) TD PROPS AJ Green & Robbie Anderson +1100 & +1900 0.5U FD (now +1000 / +1200). No Rondale Moore - these 2 split 3rd WR work. Not surprised the odds getting steamed. BOL! Edited December 12, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 8 minutes ago, Broncofan said: AJ Green & Robbie Anderson +1100 & +1900 0.5U FD (now +1000 / +1200). No Rondale Moore - these 2 split 3rd WR work. Not surprised the odds getting steamed. Don’t forget about Dortch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) 5 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said: Don’t forget about Dortch. Fair but he’s priced at +400. Thing is in the RZ he’s not on field as much as those 2. I’m interested if they put late yardage props out - he’s still not listed on FD / DK lol. Edited December 12, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 minute ago, Broncofan said: Fair but he’s priced at +400. Thing is in the RZ he’s not on field as much as those 2. I’m interested if they put late yardage props out - he’s still not listed lol. Love hammering me some Dortch. The books don’t seem to value him, but Kyler loves him. Where do you get your RZ analysis? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, SmittyBacall said: Love hammering me some Dortch. The books don’t seem to value him, but Kyler loves him. Where do you get your RZ analysis? Footballguys. Think it’s free (or they forgot to take me off lol). I’ll likely add Dortch yards because it’s going to be super low if it’s not out yet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 for Henry I got +310 for 50 and +1075 for 75 for Stevenson I got +235 for 50 and +925 for 75. You really can't beat bet365 on the props. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: Same 2 player props; adding 2 long shot TD props tonight for MNF. Weird lines came out today and already getting steamed (TD props) but Henry’s alt line for DK came out and are crazy. PLAYER PROPS Hunter Henry o30.5 Rec yds 2U & 50+ Rec yds +285 & 75+ Rec yds +750 0.5U DK. Ari 30th vs TE with 8 Rec / 64 yard per game average. And no Jakobi Meyers which means more work for Henry (& Stevenson imo) - alt lines are WAY out of line. Usually those would be +220 & +600 range. Rhamondre Stevenson o33.5 Rec yds 2U FD/DK - from before. To show how skewed the Henry alt lines are - his are 50+ +120 & 75+ +280 (no thanks lol) TD PROPS AJ Green & Robbie Anderson +1100 & +1900 0.5U FD (now +1000 / +1200). No Rondale Moore - these 2 split 3rd WR work. Not surprised the odds getting steamed. BOL! As a comp - Rhamondre Stevenson's 50+ yd receiving prop is +120 on DK (way too low) & 75+ is +280 (again, way too low). Henry's 50+ is +285, and 75+ at +750 - never seen it that high for a guy who's gone 60+ 4x, and facing a bottom 3 TE D. Of course now Henry will get 25 yds, but it's always about spotting opportunities & value. It's your money, but Henry's alt line would have been my #1 play at those #'s this week. BOL! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Just now, thebestever6 said: for Henry I got +310 for 50 and +1075 for 75 for Stevenson I got +235 for 50 and +925 for 75. You really can't beat bet365 on the props. No sir, they are always best at alt lines. That's the one area I miss the most (along with the fact it's all in 1 place for all the games together - in FD/DK, you have to scroll game-by-game....what a PITA). 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Hunter Henry is +1100 to get 75+ on Pointsbet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 Greg Dortch is 22.5 what's the move reg prop and alternate? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 DK offering a free $10 SGP so taking Dortch 40+ rec yds, Stevenson 40+ rec yds & TD and Henry 45+ rec yds with NE ML for +4500. YOLO! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 12, 2022 Share Posted December 12, 2022 (edited) 1 hour ago, thebestever6 said: Greg Dortch is 22.5 what's the move reg prop and alternate? I took Dortch O21.5 2U on DK, and 1U on 40+ for +400 (combined with ARI O13.5 pts, has to be a SGP to get the alt line on DK for non-mainstream players). Edited December 12, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, Broncofan said: I took Dortch O21.5 2U on DK, and 1U on 40+ for +400 (combined with ARI O13.5 pts, has to be a SGP to get the alt line on DK for non-mainstream players). you think it's worth putting .5 on Dortch 75 yards at +1500? Only reason I'm skeptical is a lot of mouths to feed . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 (edited) 3 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: you think it's worth putting .5 on Dortch 75 yards at +1500? Only reason I'm skeptical is a lot of mouths to feed . Tbh even 40 is pushing it with Nuk & Hollywood there. It’s a value play alone. Edited December 13, 2022 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmittyBacall Posted December 13, 2022 Share Posted December 13, 2022 44 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Tbh even 40 is pushing it with Nuk & Hollywood there. It’s a value play alone. Also playing this for the following reasons (receptions also): 1. Pats tradtionally gameplan to take away your best weapon (Hopkins). 2. I expect NE to pressure consistently pressure Kyler, with him keying on short hot reads (Dortch). 3. NE good versus run keep ARI behind chains. 4. No Ertz at TE, replaced by unreliable rookie, means more trust in Dortch operating middle of field. Sounds good in theory, but it’s all conjecture. BOL. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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