Weekly Bets Thread

[N4L]

I didn't bet it but @Broncofannailed another longshot TD prop! 

Merry Christmas to everyone in this thread 

[adamq]

Damn @N4L I missed your post. 🔥🔥🔥🔥

 

Lewis baby!

[thebestever6]

ugh Watson has had 49 since halftime I need 53.5.

[Broncofan]

Adding Bryce Hopkins +2400 0.5U & Jalen Vigil +2000 0.5U.  

Edited December 25, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

I always seem to do better my last second picks I picked 2u on jeudy to get 75. 1 unit to get 100, and .5 to get 125 almost had it tbh. Than I picked Dulchich over 30.5 2 unit, and over 50 one unit. Than I picked Sutton +125 for 50 yards 2 units, 1 unit on 75 almost had it, and .5 unit to get 100. All these saved me from the latavuis Murray bad beats and the game script being down double digit points the whole game. I was so close to hammering Higbees props I thought this would be a get right game for him and it was.

[adamq]

Brady +1900. Just too high for him, even though I don't think I've seen them run a sneak at all this year 

[Broncofan]

My LAC card was pretty intact - but the bet boosts from FD and DK are pretty good:

Herbert 2+ pass TD's +100 2U DK - IND still a pass funnel D.

Keenan Allen TD / Chargers W +350 FD 1U - worth the juice improvement.

BOL!

[Broncofan]

No Kylen Granson - Jelani Woods o23.5 Rec yds & 40+ Rec yds DK willing to add.  BOL! 

Edited December 26, 2022 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

2 hours ago, Broncofan said:

My LAC card was pretty intact - but the bet boosts from FD and DK are pretty good:

Herbert 2+ pass TD's +100 2U DK - IND still a pass funnel D.

Keenan Allen TD / Chargers W +350 FD 1U - worth the juice improvement.

BOL!

my fanduel boost is Herbert throws for 200 chargers win +125 you like that?

[adamq]

Alie cox TD +1100

[Broncofan]

On 12/25/2022 at 4:51 PM, Broncofan said:

Merry Christmas ppl!  🎄

Ok todays props (some from b4) - I’ll tally up Sat / Sun on Boxing Day lol   

WEEK 16 SUN / MON PLAYS 

ATS / ML 

DEN ML -120 2U -but now that’s -170.   I’d back Den -3 

LAC -3 now -4 - from before; nervous at -4 but still lean that way.  

3U in play.  My 7-leg 0.2U Parley still alive with a push on phi +6, so if those 2 win I’m at +4600 0.2U (Jax ML / Cin -3.5 / KC -9.5 / SF -7 / PHI +6 push / Den -120 / LAC -3) 

PLAYER PROPS 

Raheem Mostert o62.5 rush yds / 80+ rush yds +200 FD - GB worst run D.   Even with Wilson Jr likely back have to take a shot. 

Christian Watson o50.5 Rec yds 2U / 70+ Rec yds +220 / 90+ Rec yds 0.5U +440 0.5U - from before.  MIA D still prone to chunk plays.  

AJ Dillon o37.5 rush yds 2U - splits work so can’t go alt lines.  But just too low.  

Latavius Murray o60.5 rush yds 2U DK / 80+ rush yds +200 / 100+ rush yds +400 0.5U - imo only injury risk here.  Den going to commit to run a lot esp in 2H.   

Mike Evans o50.5 Rec yds 2U DK - from before it’s all the way up to 57.5 - 60.5 now.   Wish the 70/90 alt lines were out before.   

Chris Godwin o66.5 Rec yds 2U - catch prop is decent at o5.5 if plus money.   

Keenan Allen o60.5 Rec yds / 80+ Rec yds +200 / 100 Rec yds +400 0.5U FD - Kenny Moore missing 3rd straight game.   When he’s out the slot WR thrives 

Been offered a DK free 0.2U Xmas parley so all those 7 plays for +10200 lol.  20U in play. 

LONGSHOT TD 

Mercedes Lewis +1800 0.5U FD - MIA 25th in DVOA to TE.   

Durham Smythe +1200 0.5U FD - Similar theme both D leaky to TE, GB 30th DVOA 

Donald Parham +1200 FD - back and took over more snaps than Everett.  Smash spot at that number.  

That’s 2U in TD plays so 25U in play for the last 4 games.   BOL!

 

On 12/26/2022 at 9:58 PM, Broncofan said:

My LAC card was pretty intact - but the bet boosts from FD and DK are pretty good:

Herbert 2+ pass TD's +100 2U DK - IND still a pass funnel D.

Keenan Allen TD / Chargers W +350 FD 1U - worth the juice improvement.

BOL!

 

On 12/26/2022 at 11:35 PM, Broncofan said:

No Kylen Granson - Jelani Woods o23.5 Rec yds 2U & 40+ Rec yds DK +300  willing to add.  BOL! 

 

Well Xmas Eve & Boxing Day were great - which was good, because Xmas was HORRIBLE.

Xmas Eve - 3-0-1 ATS/ML, +3U, 4-3 player props (weather scared me off alt lines), +2U, and TD prop only 1x - but it was 1U +1000 for Dante Pettis, so that was a +3.5U - so +8.5U

Xmas Day - 0-1 ATS , -2U (and it killed the +4600 6-leg 0.2U parley too), 0-6 with player props (HORRIBLE bad beats with Christian Watson at 49 yds halftime, looking like a 7U win, and Godwin 2 yds short after a gaggle of targets - but the other 4 were just bad calls, brutal TBH), 0-3 alt line plays too, so -16.5U, thankfully Mercedes Lewis +1800 @ 0.5U meant a +8U profit TD-wise - so -10.5U.  

Boxing Day MNF - 1-0 ATS +1U, 2-0 on the main player props with ALL alt lines hitting for Allen (so +6U) and Jelani Woods (for +5U), but missed the 2 late DK/FD boosts for -3U, and no TD for Parham at -1U, so it's still  +8U for MNF.

Honestly, after the Xmas day debacle, I'll gladly take the +6.5U holiday weekend, and +14.8U for Week 16 - Hackett's finally gone, so it feels like a massive W to end MNF and as a DEN fan tonight after yesterday's disaster on all counts.   On to Week 17!

_____________________________-

 

WEEK 16 FINAL

ATS/ ML & RACE

37-27-2 ATS, 14-15 ML/RACE, BALANCE +34.6U. (+3.3U, 4-1-1 Week 16 FINAL , Week 14 6-0 & 6-leg parley +5200 0.4U parley woohoo)

PLAYER PROPS

115-118,  BALANCE  +38.0U (+3.0U WEEK 17 TNF  - Now 64-63 in 2U+ plays, Wk5 - Kamara / Goedert / D-Henry rec yds / C-Samuel &  Wk6 Breece Halll / Kamara / Andrews / Ertz & MNF Ekeler & Wk7 Kamara/Juwan-Johnson on TNF and Njoku / K-Walker III / J-Jacobs / Waddle / Fields & Wk8 Kamara/Dulcich all paid off big on alt lines plus 2U main plays & Wk 10 Kmet huge payoff, Wk11 TNF Burks & Week 11 Singletary / P-Campbell big payoffs & Slayton / D-Jones / R-Stevenson wins, Wk12 J-Allen / Lamb alt line W's Week 13 G-Wilson / C-Kirk / K-Allen / C-Kmet / D-Jones, Week 14 K-Allen / H-Henry & Week 15 TNF CMC & Kittle, and Sat Josh Allen / JK Dobbins & Sun M-Williams & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence & Week 17 - Ceedee Lamb )

LONGSHOT TD PROPS

34-140, BALANCE +141.2U  (-3.0U Week 17 TNF - Wk1 Isiah McKenzie +350 & +450 2 bets TNF; Wk2 TNF Josh Palmer +300; Wk3 Stefon Diggs +300 boosted 3U play, Chubb boosted +200 TNF play, and Njoku +500 TNF; Wk4 Lat Murray +1000 & J-Reynolds +500 & J-Fortson +900 & SF DST +1000; Wk5 Velus Jones +1800, Durham Smythe +700  & Trautman +800; Wk6 Jake Ferguson +1200; Wk7 TNF Juwan Johnson +500 / +6000 2+; Wk8 TNF Isiah Likely +700;  Wk9 Shane Zylstra <LOL> +2000 & James Mitchell +700 & Juwan Johnson +400 MNF;  Wk10 TNF Laviska Shenault +1100 & Khadarel Hodge +2200 & Juwan Johnson <again!> +400 & MNF Antonio Gibson +300; Wk11 TNF Austin Hooper +600 & Juwan Johnson <again> +440 & SNF Josh Palmer +360/+3200 2+ TD's; Wk12 Turkey Day Richie James +700 & MyCole Pruitt +700; Week 13 Pruitt +800 & C-Otton MNF +700; Week 14 Isaiah Hodgins +400 & Chidogam Okonkwe +500; Week 15 Rashid Shaheem +600 & Peyton Hendershot +1200 & Juwan Johnson +380 & +3500 2+ <woohoo again> & Week 16 TNF T-Lawrence +600)
 

TOTAL:  +213.8U (Week 1 - +9.4U, Week 2 - -10.0U <ugh>, Week 3 - +8.8U, Week 4 - +27.9U, Week 5 - +44.9U Week 6 - +14.9U Week 7 - +59.1U Week 8 - -2.3U <meh> Week 9 - -8.1U <ugh>. Week 10 - -1.1U <sigh> Week 11 - +13.9U, Week 12 - -6.2U <ugh -14U MNF - don't tilt bet, ppl>, Week 13 - +9.6U; Week 14 - +23.5U; Week 15 - +15.3U; Week 16 - +14.8U; Week 17 - even)

 

Edited December 31, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

FWIW the take home message from tonight - whoever plays slot vs. IND with no Kenny Moore, keep playing.    Check the injury reports next 2 weeks.

[Broncofan]

For Week 17 initial leans & player prop targets:

ATS/ML 

Den +13.5 2U as long as Jeudy & D guys ok.   They just keep it closer to KC than ppl expect. 

Min +3.5 / ML - matchups in key places;  they’d love to eliminate GB.  Wouldn’t have to face them either.   Bad Kirk is the risk. 

CAR +3 / ML - Tampa losing another T.   Mismatches everywhere to CAR. 

NYJ -2.5 - with a decent QB (ie not Zach Wilson), they hammer mediocre teams - SEA really not the same on D and OL of late.  Geno without decent run game having more trouble.  The Jets do need Quinnen Williams to play for this to be a confidence play though.    

PIT +3 / ML - BAL O in serious trouble if they can’t run.   

BUF ML - love CIN but Bills on a mission to have the 1 seed.  

PLAYER PROP TARGETS 

Guys I will be looking out for next week:

-Rashid Shaheed Rec yds & TD / Juwan Johnson Rec yds & TD 

- Jahan Dotson Rec yds 

- Jerry Jeudy Rec yds (if healthy)

- Isaiah Pacheco rush yds if 60 or less 

-Richie James Rec yds if Kenny Moore out again  

- Jelani Woods if Granson out again (pass if Granson active) 

- Tyler Conklin Rec yds

- Garrett Wilson if low totals vs. SEA with Mike White likely back. 

-Bears rush yd props / Bengals Rec yd props

 

 

 

Edited December 27, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Leaving province now to see relatives for post-Xmas visit, under dumb rules have to bet now in-province, so Week 17 TNF plays now even though FD not out yet: 

2 props no alt lines and 3 TD plays on Score/DK (DK slightly worse odds) b4 l leave (if ppl want to see FD odds for TD don’t blame them): 

TNF PLAYER PROPS 

Ceedee Lamb o70.5 Rec yds 2U - TeN pass funnel D and missing key CB.  

Michael Gallup o29.5 Rec yds - same deal

TNF LONGSHOT TD 

Chigoziem Okonkwo +700 / +7000 (0.8U / 0.2U) - hate that Willis is the QB but too good odds here vs. vulnerable pass D.  

Peyton Hendershot +1600 Score / Jake Ferguson +800 Score 0.5U each - wish one of them sitting but I’ll split the odds lol.  

No FD out so TD props could be better - wouldn’t blame you if you held off but I have to place now.   That's 5U for TNF, and will keep it to that (but if Lamb alt lines decent for 90 & 110+, I'd certainly consider it - along with rushing unders for the DAL RB's).   BOL!

Edited December 28, 2022 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

FWIW TEN resting both Autry & Simmons and the LB’s - puts the under rush props in uncertain territory.  ESP if Pollard sits.   With that in flux going to hold off on alt lines.