adamq Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 (edited) KaVontae Turpin is an electric return man who has broken some good ones but no TD yet. Shot in the dark, but considering Tenn is resting players/has nothing to play for, ST could be a bit lax. And with Willis at the helm I am expecting plenty of 3 and outs. Tennesee also allows far more PR opportunities than any other team- 54 returns for 574 yards.. next highest is Den at 40/311. +2000 odds, going with .2U to win 4U Speaking of, Dallas leads the league in INT TDs & Parsons is always a threat to get a sack/fumble.. DK has Dallas ST/D to score at +450. FD has just the Defense at +700 but I want the chance to double dip here. There are no odds out for Zeke yet, but he should have plenty of yards tonight. He has yet to top 100 rushing yards this season, tonight should be the night considering all the circumstances. Edited December 29, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 (edited) Adding in Treylon Burks +700 / +9500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - OL still playing their guys he’s the home run mismatch. BOL! Edited December 29, 2022 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 (edited) Double post Edited December 29, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 29, 2022 Share Posted December 29, 2022 (edited) https://www.covers.com/nfl/contract-incentives-and-statistical-milestones I think Mahomes wants that passing record, and I know for certain JJeff is getting the receiving one, barring injury.. alt lines won't be too juicy for him again this week, so I'm just hitting his over. Whatever it is Dobbs alt passing lines Pointsbet 200 yds +310 250 yds +1300 Complete unknown but I'm taking a small stab. They should be playing from behind the entire game Edit- soon as i logged in the 250 yard line went away 🙄 Edited December 30, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 Ceedee Lamb with the one yard catch late to put us over 100 love to see it. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 On 12/28/2022 at 2:29 PM, Broncofan said: Leaving province now to see relatives for post-Xmas visit, under dumb rules have to bet now in-province, so Week 17 TNF plays now even though FD not out yet: 2 props no alt lines and 3 TD plays on Score/DK (DK slightly worse odds) b4 l leave (if ppl want to see FD odds for TD don’t blame them): TNF PLAYER PROPS Ceedee Lamb o70.5 Rec yds 2U - TeN pass funnel D and missing key CB. Michael Gallup o29.5 Rec yds - same deal TNF LONGSHOT TD Chigoziem Okonkwo +700 / +7000 (0.8U / 0.2U) - hate that Willis is the QB but too good odds here vs. vulnerable pass D. Peyton Hendershot +1600 Score / Jake Ferguson +800 Score 0.5U each - wish one of them sitting but I’ll split the odds lol. No FD out so TD props could be better - wouldn’t blame you if you held off but I have to place now. That's 5U for TNF, and will keep it to that (but if Lamb alt lines decent for 90 & 110+, I'd certainly consider it - along with rushing unders for the DAL RB's). BOL! 14 hours ago, Broncofan said: Adding in Treylon Burks +700 / +9500 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U FD - OL still playing their guys he’s the home run mismatch. BOL! Well 2-0 on player props but 0-4 on TD props. So literally even lol. Only disappointment was Burks’ lines came out so late - easy 4-6U win with alt line play. If they go at 30 or less with next week it’s a def alt line play. On to the weekend! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 (edited) Ok for the weekend several plays stand out (nothing on TD props yet): ATS / ML EARLY DEN +13.5 2U - as long as Jeudy & D guys ok, I’m good with backing DEN post-Hackett. They just keep it closer to KC than ppl expect. CAR +3 - Tampa losing another T. Mismatches everywhere to CAR except the CB - so will take the pts instead of the +140 ML LATE MIN ML +160 - matchups in key places; they’d love to eliminate GB. Wouldn’t have to face them either. Bad Kirk is the risk. If ppl want to go MIN +3.5 can’t argue it. NYJ -2.5 - with a decent QB (ie not Zach Wilson), they hammer mediocre teams - SEA really not the same on D and OL of late. Geno without decent run game having more trouble. The Jets do need Quinnen Williams to play for this to be a confidence play though. SNF PIT ML +130 - BAL O in serious trouble if they can’t run. MNF BUF ML -120 - love CIN but Bills on a mission to have the 1 seed. That’s 7U in 6 plays - have the free 0.2U parley at +7800 with the 2 MIN / PIT ML boosted odds as well. WEEK 17 SUN PLAYER PROPS OK here’s the updated Sunday card: Tyler Conklin o26.5 Rec yds 3U, 50+ Rec yds +320 1.5U DK @ SEA - Sea funnels pass to TE / RB and Mike White loves him. I’m going 1.5U on his 50+ Rec yds alt lines on DK Richie James o37.5 Rec yds 2U DK / 60+ Rec yds +270 / 80+ Rec yds +630 0.5U FD - with IND slot CB Kenny Moore out we’ve seen Lamb, Osborn & Allen go crazy - same deal here, on lower scale; gotta go here. Cam Akers o69.5 rush yds 2U DK @ LAC - LAC still vulnerable and McVay committed to run. No alt lines with risk of gamescript going wrong. Dalvin Cook o71.5 rush yds 2U DK @ GB - GB still has major rush D issues. MIN will pound the ball knowing this (plus Jefferson) EDIT: line moved all way to 76.5 before alt lines came out on FD so alt lines ROI no longer as attractive - just main prop. Rashid Shaheed O36.5 rec yd 2U, unclear on DK/FD alt lines - with the secondary injuries and Landry on IR, I'm confident even with Olave back, that Shaheed should see 5-6 targets, and get past the mid-30's target. If the juice is there, will consider the 50+ prop on DK (doubt FD will have it, but I'll look). Juwan Johnson O27.5 rec yds 2U, FD alt lines pending - same deal here, although PHI is better at TE D overall, of late they've been leaky. Jelani Woods O27.5 rec yds 2U DK - Landon Collins has returned, but the NYG TE D has really missed Xavier McKinney. So this is still worth playing. I suspect there won't be alt lines out, being that Woods in theory is the backup behind Alie-Cox, even though he's their top receiving TE target. EDIT: McKinney surprise return so no alt lines. Jahan Dotson O40.5 rec yds 2U FD - OK, the number is low enough, I'll bite. Wentz doesn't throw deep as much, but he still likes Dotson a lot, so I have to play this. The uncertainty of how much Wentz will go downfield makes the alt lines a pass this week. I still want to see Jerry Jeudy’s prop (injury low ankle issue so likely only 2U play) WAITING PROPS 1 more that aren’t out yet I’m almost certainly going to add: Jerry Jeudy Rec yds 2U if in low 60’s @ KC - will need Sutton playing to take alt lines (so D more honest). Hinton returning to practice helps already. EDIT: With injury report saying he's been limited all week, I have to pass on alt lines. So that’s 20U and I’d like to add 2U more if possible with Jeudy as long as Sutton / Hinton active and it’s in low 60’s or less. LONGSHOT TD Only a couple for now on Friday... Juwan Johnson +550 / +6000 2+ (1.2U/0.3U) FD - you know the drill. I don't get why FD sets the line si wide (he’s +300 or less everywhere else), but I'll still take it. Jelani Woods +550 / +6000 2+(0.8U / 0.2U) FD @ NYG - currently at +425 on DK. Not in a position to wait so will take but have a hunch if ppl wait to Sun AM you may get better #’s as IND is the road dog. Mike Gesicki +650 / +8500 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) FD @ NE - TeddyB loves the TE and NE will focus on Hill / Waddle Mycole Pruitt +950 FD 1U - Still getting 60 percent snaps and almost all the RZ targets / snaps on pass downs. Donald Parham +800 FD / +9000 DK (0.8U/0.2U) - still gets the RZ package snaps and targets, I'll still play it. Andrew Beck +3700 / Jalen Virgil +1800 (0.25U each) FD - Dulcich out, and the top 3 WR's are all hurting, so I'll take a shot. Freddie Swain competes with Virgil, but he's +490, so no value there. EDIT: Here are the other lines I was hoping to see better action on FD/Score than DK, still waiting sadly... Rashid Shaheed take if +400 or better @ PHI - or better (both likely need Olave to play to get to that range). EDIT: FD is only +310 for now, waiting for sure. Jordan Akins +600 or better vs. JAX - currently at +425 on DK Think Score or FD will be better. EDIT: FD is sadly only at +380 on Friday, waiting for now. Richie James +450 or better vs. IND - currently +310 at DK. See IND CB slot issue in player props. Think FD or Score will be better. EDIT: FD is only +340 on Friday, waiting for now. OK that’s it for now - 7U in ATS/ML, 20.0U in player props and 6U in TD props. BOL! Edited January 1, 2023 by Broncofan Fri/Sat additions now up on full card 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 (edited) 12 hours ago, adamq said: Dobbs alt passing lines Pointsbet 200 yds +310 250 yds +1300 Complete unknown but I'm taking a small stab. They should be playing from behind the entire game Edit- soon as i logged in the 250 yard line went away 🙄 PB played themselves on this one. I would have been LIVID at the way Tenn handled that final possession if I was able to get the 250+ bet in Also- I talked ish on Hard Rock Sportsbook, and I still don't like them (tiny limits), but take advantage of the sign-up bonus. That wheel spin promo has netted me 2 $50 free bets, a $100, and some $5/$10 ones as well. Edited December 30, 2022 by adamq Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 30, 2022 Share Posted December 30, 2022 (edited) OK there aren't Richie James props (!!, no Hodgins either, so obv not sure on where to put NYG WR's for now, only Slayton is out), but I've added 3 player props and 2 TD props to the list: WEEK 17 SUN PLAYER PROPS OLD Tyler Conklin o26.5 Rec yds 3U, 50+ Rec yds +320 1.5U DK @ SEA - Sea funnels pass to TE / RB and Mike White loves him. I’m going 1U on his 50 alt lines on DK Cam Akers o69.5 rush yds 2U DK @ LAC - LAC still vulnerable and McVay committed to run. No alt lines with risk of gamescript going wrong. Dalvin Cook o71.5 rush yds 2U DK & 90+ rush yds / 110+ rush yds 0.5U FD alt lines pending @ GB - GB still has major rush D issues. MIN will pound the ball knowing this (plus Jefferson) NEW Rashid Shaheed O36.5 rec yd 2U, unclear on DK/FD alt lines - with the secondary injuries and Landry on IR, I'm confident even with Olave back, that Shaheed should see 5-6 targets, and get past the mid-30's target. If the juice is there, will consider the 50+ prop on DK (doubt FD will have it, but I'll look). Juwan Johnson O27.5 rec yds 2U, FD alt lines pending - same deal here, although PHI is better at TE D overall, of late they've been leaky. Jelani Woods O29.5 rec yds 2U DK - Landon Collins has returned, but the NYG TE D has really missed Xavier McKinney. So this is still worth playing. I suspect there won't be alt lines out, being that Woods in theory is the backup behind Alie-Cox, even though he's their top receiving TE target. Jahan Dotson O40.5 rec yds 2U FD - OK, the number is low enough, I'll bite. Wentz doesn't throw deep as much, but he still likes Dotson a lot, so I have to play this. The uncertainty of how much Wentz will go downfield makes the alt lines a pass this week. To be clear, I'll be adding Richie James for a 3.5U confidence play with alt lines if they post them - and if not, I may just go 4U on the main prop. And I'll be adding to Conklin's main prop with 40+ / 60+ alt lines if they're +200/+400 on FD. So I've more than doubled my player props to 14U from the first 3 @ 2U each - and will almost certainly add 5U more with alt line additions on Conklin (1.5U more) and a 3.5U play on Richie James (or just straight 4U play on main prop if it's as low as I think it will be, not being released now as a perceived secondary receiver). WEEK 17 LONGSHOT TD (ALL NEW) Juwan Johnson +550 / +6000 2+ (1.2U/0.3U) FD @ PHI - I honestly don't get why FD keeps posting these odds (less than +300 everywhere else) but I'm not complaining, I'll just play it. Jelani Woods +550 / +6000 2+(0.8U / 0.2U) FD @ NYG - currently at +425 on DK. Not in a position to wait so will take but have a hunch if ppl wait to Sun AM you may get better #’s as IND is the road dog. Mike Gesicki +650 / +8500 2+ (0.8U / 0.2U) FD @ NE - TeddyB loves the TE and NE will focus on Hill / Waddle Donald Parham +800 FD / +9000 2+ DK (0.8U/0.2U) vs. LAR - he still gets his chances, just the one last week was overthrown (scramble drill). As long as it's this high, gotta take my shot. Andrew Beck +3700 0.25U FD, Jalen Vigil +1800 0.25U @ KC - I know, it's a massive longshot. But with Dulcich out this week, everyone thinks it's Tomlinson as the next guy, but at +450, no value, so I'll take the H-back longshot here, especially with a new HC overseeing the team. Same deal with Vigil, given both Jeudy and Hamler will be questionable, and Sutton is still back from a balky hammy. I'd love to see the odds improve with Richie James, Jelani Woods & Rashid Shaheed - for now, stick to 5U in TD plays. That's 26.5U committed, and likely 5.5U more from Richie James with alt lines & Jerry Jeudy. That's enough for now...lol, BOL! Edited December 31, 2022 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 On 12/29/2022 at 10:17 PM, Broncofan said: Cam Akers o69.5 rush yds 2U DK @ LAC - LAC still vulnerable and McVay committed to run. No alt lines with risk of gamescript going wrong. Dalvin Cook o71.5 rush yds 2U DK & 90+ rush yds / 110+ rush yds 0.5U FD alt lines pending @ GB - GB still has major rush D issues. MIN will pound the ball knowing this (plus Jefferson) Jahan Dotson O40.5 rec yds 2U FD - OK, the number is low enough, I'll bite. Wentz doesn't throw deep as much, but he still likes Dotson a lot, so I have to play this. The uncertainty of how much Wentz will go downfield makes the alt lines a pass this week. Came here to post these three. Love to see it. I am a huge Dotson fan and he is the #1 in Washington. He is Wentz's go to guy and this number is far too low for a guy with his big play abilities I am also firmly behind CAR+3 and I see it's +4 now. Perfect teaser leg imo. 49ers -2, Panthers +10 is a great teaser I also really like the over in the GB game. Haven't checked the weather. GB is a slow team as far as pace of play goes but I think both defenses are susceptible to big plays so I think there could be some fireworks in this one. Tyler allgeir over 75 rush yards - ATL sticks to the run in all game scripts, Cardinals defense is bad and the team is a mess. Shouldn't have a problem with this one in a + matchup Drake London over 56 rec yards. He's been heavily targeted. He has taken some small steps forward with his route running. They have started to truly feature him. 56 yards is a low number against a bad secondary. Brandon Aiyuk over 50 rec yards. He is a big play WR who is a phenomenal route runner. Can go deep or take a short pass the distance. The niners offense has been clicking and he is due for a monster game. Will hammer this number and look to the alt lines up to 80 or so. Kittle over 44.5 rec yards - this number is just too low for a guy with his abilities, on the streak he is on, playing in a + matchup. Jimmy did not look to kittle as frequently as Purdy does. He should be open over the middle against the raiders. He is a big play waiting to happen. Should be able to hit this in 3 maybe 4 catches. Evan engram over 45 rec yards - he has been heavily featured in a TE friendly scheme. He's been making a ton of plays downfield and has been earning a ton of targets. This line is 15-20 yards off imo. Houstons run D has been bad all season and, while I think they have been better in that department, I think it can leave the middle open for TEs. Might have more later 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Only 2 stand out to me right now... Fields needs 200 to pass Lamar's record. He had 147 on Detroit last time, gimme 100+ yds at +310 and 110+ at +630 Julio Jones TD +380- he had one called back last week and Brady seems to trust him JJeffs lines are insanely high, so I'm staying away. Still expect him to get 110+ against that ish talker Alexander Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 Ok FD finally has the ATL-ARI game props so adding Mycole Pruitt +950 FD - Still getting 60 percent snaps and almost all the RZ targets / snaps on pass downs. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adamq Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 1 hour ago, Broncofan said: Ok FD finally has the ATL-ARI game props so adding Mycole Pruitt +950 FD - Still getting 60 percent snaps and almost all the RZ targets / snaps on pass downs. +15000 to score 2+ on Hard Rock, $10 limit. Iowa, NJ, IN, ARI, VA, TN, FL, OH are the states Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N4L Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 https://www.si.com/nfl/2022/12/30/2022-nfl-player-bonuses-millions-dollars-incentives Some story lines to monitor. Zay Jones and Jamaal Williams seem attackable 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted December 31, 2022 Share Posted December 31, 2022 S Xavier McKinney back for NYG, unexpected - would def avoid alt lines for Jelani Woods as a result. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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