Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

17 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

My FAVORITE PLAY of the night is Parris Campbell U29.5 receiving yards -110. 

He has 23 yards on the season, WanDale Robinson comes back tonight to siphon slot targets, & the 9ers are elite at limiting YAC. 

This line feels at least 10 yards too high. 

 

17 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I actually bet the Daniel Jones rushing Under here which I don't love considering you know your team better than I do. 

My assumption behind the play was that SF has incredibly fast LBs & the gameplan should include spying DJones as that is a main source of NYG's offensive production. SF shouldn't feel threatened by any of the Giants skill position players. 

 

Bang. Small day but nothing but profit. +2u with my 49ers +3 teaser leg still alive as well. 

Even with a 6 catch day, Parris Campbell could not reach 30 yards. He had a season-high in catches & yards & this O/U STILL hit! Just goes to show how mispriced it was. 

The 49ers pretty clearly set out to spy Daniel, as I implied they would in my rationale. Makes a ton of sense. With Saquon out, the Giants don't have much else to threaten a defense. That's when you can take the QBs legs. O/U was 39.5 rushing yards & he ended up with 5 for a sweat-free hit. 

Will make some more player props tomorrow most likely. Will be reading the thread for advice there. 

[N4L]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

As much as I hate to do it, with the weather report looking so bleak, I have to pull Zay Flowers off the player prop list.  If I have to cash out, I'll take the 10% hit, but can't in good conscience play it with tropical storm / cyclone forecasts.   There, the wind is just as big a problem than rain.  For now, I'm sitting tight, as there's a chance the game gets moved to Monday or the forecast improves significantly, in which case we'd be all systems go.   But if you haven't taken the prop, don't need to have all this uncertainty.   If you've already taken the prop, sit tight and see what happens weather / game-rescheduling wise (I'm doing that for now).

Keep me in the loop here with this one. I forgot about the weather this morning and played the Zay overs and the Lamar passing prop overs. Lamar's was 229 yards. I played it all the way up to 309. I am also looking to add Bateman to the player props as well, but it wasn't posted yet. He is ramping up (30% snap in week 1 to 60% snap in week 2) and is a big play WR. His prop should be like 31 yards. That is nothing. 

Really feel like an idiot for forgetting about this lol 

Indy pass D is bad and I was expecting Lamar to really take advantage of it. Thought he might have 40+ passes. Now, is his rushing prop something we should look at? 

Edited September 22, 2023 by N4L

[adamq]

Justin Watson is +900 to score on Bet365, +440 is the best i can find anywhere else.  KC will run up the score on that pathetic Chicago defense and Watson will get his shots

Edited September 22, 2023 by adamq

[Broncofan]

 

All the books went below +500 with Cole Turner immediately with the news - except Bovada / Bodog (Ronnie Bell book!).  I couldn’t resist and added 0.4U / 0.1U for +1200 / +125000 2+ so I’m now staked at 1.6U / 0.4U with Cole Turner.  You will maybe see this 3-4x a year with me; and to be clear the real odds say this is still likely a donation.    But even the current book odds say I’ve gained a 3x edge in the odds, not “just” 50 percent.    To get +1200 when I think the odds are more like +300 / +400 range is when you can push a little (and the bankroll is healthy lol).  So I’ll live a little and root for manageable weather.  

Rasheed Shaheed is dipping below +400 so the opener +600 was great value    Same with Zonovan Knight down from +1100 now to +750.  Still not locks at those odds but hopefully a couple hit with all that CLV.   Unlike Shaheed who's dropped everywhere across the board, Zonovan Knight still is +1200 on DK (down everywhere else) so I'm up to 0.8U/0.2U there.  

BOL!  
 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

Pretty terrible weather across the board with games played in the NE. 

Should be a good chance to tease some Unders & hit some Under receiving lines. 

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Pretty terrible weather across the board with games played in the NE. 

Should be a good chance to tease some Unders & hit some Under receiving lines. 

It's basically IND @ BAL, BUF @ WAS and NE @ NYJ.   

WAS is apparently going to have winds calmed by then, so it's only rain.   Obviously that probably applies to BAL.  

NE @ NYJ is the one that's got more influence.    

[Broncofan]

One more player prop that's come out, and it's a great one - Kendre Miller O39.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +600 1U on DK (not out on FD, 50+ is only +140 on DK, no way).   He's finally healthy, and drafted in R3 to be the Mark Ingram to Kamara when he's back.  GB rush D is def vulnerable to this.   Full practices, not listed on injury report, gotta take the 3U dive.     Tony Jones took over last MNF, but he was the only backup RB, and Miller was inactive after his preseason hamstring injury.   It's 2 games late, but for Miller, it's a great matchup to get started on.

Sadly Cole Turner rec yds props aren't out, I suspect they're not coming until SUN AM.

Edited September 23, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Kendre Miller O39.5 rush yds

I will courageously push back on this one. 

First game back from injury, I don’t see anything resembling a full load for Kendre. Taysom Hill was very effective last week & I expect they go back to the well there. 

That said, 39.5 yards isn’t a lot. Don’t hate it, just not one I’d personally tail. 

[N4L]

5 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I will courageously push back on this one. 

First game back from injury, I don’t see anything resembling a full load for Kendre. Taysom Hill was very effective last week & I expect they go back to the well there. 

That said, 39.5 yards isn’t a lot. Don’t hate it, just not one I’d personally tail. 

I am with you to a degree. It feels like Kendre is only playing because williams got hurt, and not because he is healthy enough to play. Realistically, as a person with Kendre on his dynasty team, I wish he would just go on IR and get healthy. He played hurt last year and was not healthy all summer, and played injured in the preseason. 

If we had any clarity on who was running the ball for NO, I would be all over them. GB is a bad rush D until they prove me otherwise. I have said they are soft on defense because it is true. We will continue to attack this under the right set of circumstances. 

So, from that perspective, 40 yards is a very short number and @Broncofan is basically just reading the line and the matchup. It is sound reasoning. I just wonder if Tony Jones ends up being the lead guy there simply because the coaching staff trusts him more because he is the devil they know. His line isnt even posted yet lol 

[SaveOurSonics]

7 hours ago, Broncofan said:

All the books went below +500 with Cole Turner immediately with the news - except Bovada / Bodog (Ronnie Bell book!).  I couldn’t resist and added 0.4U / 0.1U for +1200 / +125000 2+ so I’m now staked at 1.6U / 0.4U with Cole Turner.  You will maybe see this 3-4x a year with me; and to be clear the real odds say this is still likely a donation.    But even the current book odds say I’ve gained a 3x edge in the odds, not “just” 50 percent.    To get +1200 when I think the odds are more like +300 / +400 range is when you can push a little (and the bankroll is healthy lol).  So I’ll live a little and root for manageable weather.  

Rasheed Shaheed is dipping below +400 so the opener +600 was great value    Same with Zonovan Knight down from +1100 now to +750.  Still not locks at those odds but hopefully a couple hit with all that CLV.   Unlike Shaheed who's dropped everywhere across the board, Zonovan Knight still is +1200 on DK (down everywhere else) so I'm up to 0.8U/0.2U there.  

BOL!

I must say, you’ve really drawn my attention on the long odds ATTD plays. I’ve never been a big ATTD bettor (felt too random), but your methodology has made me iterate my own. Two good ATTD hits last week; hopefully can add to that this week. 

Anyways. Here’s 3 ATTD I’m eyeing rn. Any feedback is welcome! 

Nico Collins (+275) - I already mentioned I expect this to be a high scoring game, & Nico has been Strouds primary read in the RZ. Jacksonville, like most teams, doesn’t have the size to matchup with him 1on1. 

Marvin Mims (+600) - Mims has been a dependable deep threat for Denver. Their defense has been miserable & I don’t expect it to look much better against MIA. With Denver playing catch-up, expect some patented Russ moon balls in the 2H. Mims is the beneficiary of those. 

Mo Alie-Cox (+900) - I think Minshew taking over for ARich is a great opportunity to buy Colts pass catchers who may not get looks when Richardson is in. Welcome Mo. A massive target, I imagine he’ll be a favorite of Minshew, who loved Goedert in Philly. 

[SaveOurSonics]

10 minutes ago, N4L said:

I am with you to a degree. It feels like Kendre is only playing because williams got hurt, and not because he is healthy enough to play. Realistically, as a person with Kendre on his dynasty team, I wish he would just go on IR and get healthy. He played hurt last year and was not healthy all summer, and played injured in the preseason. 

If we had any clarity on who was running the ball for NO, I would be all over them. GB is a bad rush D until they prove me otherwise. I have said they are soft on defense because it is true. We will continue to attack this under the right set of circumstances. 

So, from that perspective, 40 yards is a very short number and @Broncofan is basically just reading the line and the matchup. It is sound reasoning. I just wonder if Tony Jones ends up being the lead guy there simply because the coaching staff trusts him more because he is the devil they know. His line isnt even posted yet lol 

IMO, it’s a suspiciously low line. If Vegas had any faith in Kendre being the lead back, that number would be closer to 50. 

I may be inclined to bet the under just to put my money where my mouth is. 

[SaveOurSonics]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

It's basically IND @ BAL, BUF @ WAS and NE @ NYJ.   

WAS is apparently going to have winds calmed by then, so it's only rain.   Obviously that probably applies to BAL.  

NE @ NYJ is the one that's got more influence.    

I’m expecting a lot of points in the LAC/MIN game. Feels like a great opportunity to exploit a long odds ATTD. Any names stand out to you at cost from that game? 

I was personally eyeing Quentin Johnston (+600). Very low usage to-date but just feels like a desperate Chargers team will need to deploy him. 

Edited September 23, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[N4L]

Last week it felt like I had too many bets and I took the shot and it worked out. This week I am hoping to keep it rolling and I am not forcing it, just letting it come to me based on what I see on film + usage. But holy hell this is just a high volume of plays. I am hoping to have less bets as the season goes on, but in the meantime we will continue to fire off.  

PROPS

EARLY

Nico Collins over 54 rec yards - Broncofan touched on this already but we will continue to ride this one 

Tank Dell over 39.5 yards - explosive player who got a lot more snaps in week 2. Its a short number. Stroud slangs that rock. They cant run the ball for sh!t. We will continue to take the HOU pass catchers. 

Justin Herbert over 285 yards - as broncofan said, the vikings are suseptible to the deep pass. Herbert has one of the best deep arms in history. The game should be a shootout. He will continue to pass. He should have 300+ yards in this game.

Bijan over 69 rushing yards - We are witnessing the ascension of an all time great. 70 yards is still a pretty low number. For as much grief as Smith gets for how he runs his offense, the guy can scheme up the run game and bijan is a legitimate cheat code. Feels like the falcons can basically run on anyone other than the titans. I played the alt lines upto 99 yards. Love the rushing + rec over 95 yards as well. 

Keenan Allen over 72 rec yards - Herbert's #1 WR in a shootout game. This line is too low.

Mike Williams 61.5 rec yards - If Herbert throws for 300+, then there is a lot of yards for Mike as well. Injury concerns are legitimate but the volume should be here for him. 

Lamar Jackson over 229 passing yards - The colts passing D has gotten absolutely torched the last two weeks. The weather is certainly worth monitoring, if there are winds > 10mph, I will probably back off from this one a bit, but the number does not seem to accurately reflect the change in the offensive philosophy in Baltimore. Week 1 the offense started off cold but found their rhythm in the second half, but by then the game was out of hand against the Texans. Week 2 they rushed for 178 yards against a tough defense in CIN. I do not think they rush for as many yards considering the colts are giving up 2.6 ypc. The ravens should see that the best way to attack the colts defense is through the air. 

Zay flowers over 48.5 rec yards, over 4.5 receptions - Seems to be the lead dog there. If there are winds, he is the kind of guy to get spammed with short throws with the idea he can make plays on the outside with the ball in his hands. He could have 10 targets. 

Rashaad Bateman over rec yards 36.5 - His snap % went up from 30 to 60. Odell is out. The ravens want him to get going. He is a big play WR with great speed. I think Lamar looks for him in this game. Lamar speaks highly of him. 

Interesting note about the ravens pass catchers rec lines and lamar's passing prop. His passing prop is 228. Andrews is 54, bateman 37, zay 49. The math does not add up there. Where does vegas think the extra 100 yards are going to come from? lol 

Mostert over 61.5 yards - Denver defense is bad, Miami does not have any other RBs it seems. He is explosive. 

Joshua Kelley over 61 rush yards - Vikings got torched on the ground last week. Kelley got a work horse role last week but it was a terrible matchup. He will see light boxes all game. It should be a big game for him. 

Rhamondre over 3.5 receptions - As broncofan said, the way to attack the jets is by targeting their RBs (and also in the slot, but the pats dont have a slot WR worthy of this angle, but we will exploit this in the future). With the weather, I dont want to take a yardage prop for him, but I think Mac will look to get the ball out quickly to Mondre, who is a fantastic receiving back. Will play the alt catches up to 6.5. 

LATE 

Tony pollard over 70 rush yards - He is an explosive player. I will continue to take the over for the starting RB of double digit favorites. 

KW3 over 64 rushing yards - he is very clearly the work horse there. Seattle likes to run the ball. He breaks big runs. 

NON PROPS

Miami team total over 27.5 - Denver's defense is bad right now. I really do not love that Waddle is probably out, but I trust McDaniel to get Tyreek loose regardless. 

Give me the rams +3 and the under 43.5 - I think burrow is out. Just reading the body language of his interview, of Jamar's interview, and also seeing the owner pull him aside at practice. I really think they have decided to pull the plug on him for the time being. Even if he does play, I still like the Rams at that number. If he does not play, then I expect the rams to be 4 point favorites. The Rams are a competent team who were pretty physical the past two weeks. Stafford is cooking. McVay has called some great games. The bengals defense will ultimately keep them 

TEASER LEGS

I stick to 2 leg teasers and I play a round robin. 

Chargers +8 - In all of the teasers with the chargers, I bought an extra point to get a 7 point teaser instead of a 6 point teaser, just to get the win on a 7 point game. I think the chargers are just more talented than the vikings overall and I like them to keep it within a 1 score game. 

Over 48 in the LAC/MIN game - Should be a shootout. Two high flying offenses with bad defenses. 

Ravens -1 - Their defense is really what sets them apart here. It is lightyears ahead of the colts offense with minshew. They are a playoff team and the colts are far from it. 

Rams +10 - bought it up to 10 for some extra juice. They will keep it close even if burrow plays. 

Titans +10 - I will take double digit points with vrabel against a team that I do not think is very good. The titans run D is going to give the cle offense a lot of problems. Watson might not be good at football anymore so that negates one of the titans weaknesses. The cleveland defense is banged up and its a short week against another physical team. 

 

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by N4L

[SaveOurSonics]

Added a couple plays…

Chargers +7.5 / Seahawks +1 / Eagles +1.5 (1.25u) 

- Checked today & the line went from Chargers -1 to Vikings -1. So I pounced on the Chargers & the points, even though I already have a Teaser with Minnesota at +8. 

Eagles -5 (1u)

- This line is disrespectful. Tampa has played decently against two bad defenses. I expect Philly to make a statement on the road. 

Steelers + Rams ML (0.5u at +400) 

- I almost feel like both teams should be favored. Raiders are bad & Steelers see some positive regression on offense following two bad weeks. Public hasn’t quite caught up to just how good the Rams are playing & just how bad the Bengals are playing. If Burrow doesn’t go, this line is going to flip in a hurry. 

Cole Turner ATTD (0.25u at +600) 

- Sure I’ll blindly tail this one. 

Kylen Granson ATTD (0.25u at +500) 

- Doubling up on the Colts TEs. I expect this game to be competitive. 

Bijan + JJefferson ATTD (0.5u at +250) 

- Breaking my player prop parlay rule again. Just love these odds in two of my favorite games to go Over. 

TPollard + Kelce + AJB + Kyren + Gus ATTD (0.15u at +1600)

- Just a fun one for cheap. I really like all of these plays, but they’re all -odds outside of AJB (+120).

[SaveOurSonics]

Here’s some player props that jump out to me. I’ll try not to repeat others too much. Any feedback is appreciated! Won’t place these til tomorrow. 

DMooney O31 rec

- I’m going back to the well after being hurt. Claypool still didn’t look good & this offense is starving for a playmaker. Mooney is that guy. Should be a heavy catchup mode game script. 

AJB O69.5 rec

- Oh, ya. Like I said, I see Philly dominating this game. The squeaky wheel gets the grease this week. 

Puka O64.5 rec

- Consider me fully bought in. He’s peppered with targets & doesn’t even need 70? Yes please (I also like Tutu O55). 

Addison O53 rec + Keenan O70.5 rec 

- Highest O/U of the week. I want pieces. 

Thielen O38 rec 

- This feels 15-20 yards too low. He’s going to eat out of the slot against this Seattle defense that’s weak up the middle. 

ARSB O73.5 rec

- This is an elite WR & I’ll keep making money on him until Vegas corrects. 

Bijan O69 rush + O24 rec

- Yes please. 

JGibbs O25 rec

- He saw 9 targets last week. His competition is Reynolds this week. He should feast against a vulnerable checkdown defense. 

Tank Dell O35.5 rec

- Free money. 

Nico Collins O54.5 rec

- Free money. 

Herbert O280.5 pass

- Free money. 

George Pickens O52.5

- Slightly lower confidence here, but still really like it against a weak LV secondary.

 Roschon O20.5 rec

- He’s clearly the receiving back, & the Bears should be throwing from behind. 

JMingo O36 rec

- He saw 8 targets last week with massive 98% route participation. He’s due for a huge week. Why not this pass funnel defense. 

JDotson O44.5 rec

- He just feels due for a big game, & Terry will have the Bills attention. 

TBurks O36.5 rec

- He’s the Titans deep threat & could easily hit this number on 1 catch. 

Eli Moore O37.5 rec

- As I’ve said, I expect positive regression from Cleveland’s offense this week. Moore has been peppered with targets but hasn’t converted as he should…yet.