Weekly Bets Thread

[Rainmaker90]

I’m in on GB this week. Home Thursday underdog in a big division game . Lot of players returning for us. 
 

 

im also betting on Bijan and Chase for TDs. They’re both due 

[Broncofan]

While we wait for final TNF reports to allow release of rushing props for TNF, there are some Sunday plays trickling out, that I def want to take now to get ahead of the line rise, given I'm going with the Week 1-3 data, and concentrating alt lines on top 2 WR targets, and TE/RB's with top 3 shares, and RB's with strong usage and great matchups.

 

WEEK 4 SUNDAY CARD

ATS/ML (3-7-1, -4U)

EARLY

HOU ML +140 (EDIT FRI PM:  PASS!!) - until PIT shows they can fix their O, and realizing that the HOU O can actually function, I'm OK with taking + odds here as a home dog.    I won't put this bet in until I get the final injury report, though, as I want to see LT Tunsil ready to go.   If Tunsil can't go, that changes the play to a pass.  EDIT: The HOU injury report for the OL is holy **** ugly.   Change to a PASS   

MIA ML +130 (10-pt auto-win on DK) - BUF has always been a terrible problem for MIA, which is why they are the fave - but I've seen enough of Vic Fangio's D and MIA's speed improvements across the board to call this as a MIA W.   With Von Miller, it's a different story, but at this point in the year, have to take the dog odds.

LAR ML +100 @ IND - this IMO is an overreaction to IND's win over BAL, and LAR losing to a great CIN D, and a terrific adjustment by CIN on O.    IND doesn't provide the same kind of pass coverage and pass D problems, which sets up great for Stafford, Puca & Atwell to have a bounce-back game.  

NO -3 vs. TAM - this is all about the matchups; NO gave fits to TAM when TB12 was the QB, and their OL and pass D were better.   TAM isn't even close to as good, and while Jameis Winston could go 3+ TO's and give it away, that's the only path to victory I see with TAM in the Big Easy.

LATE

Nothing yet that's appealing

SNF/MNF

SEA ML +100 (MNF 10-pt lead auto-win on DK) - I really respect Brian Daboll as a HC.   And the SEA D is vulnerable.  But without Saquon Barkley, I'm not sure the G-men O can capitalize - and the SEA run game and WR's should exploit NYG D's mercilessly.    TBH, this might be a 2U play on MNF, depending on how the weekend goes.

 

So that's 4U so far (with HOU ML removed Fri PM) 

 

PLAYER PROPS (21-23, +0.2U)

UK GAME

Christian Kirk O48.5 rec yds 2U FD / 75+ +260 1U DK / 100+ +700 0.5U DK - the Jags just announced Zay Jones is doubtful.  When Jones doesn't play, that means Kirk plays slot AND outside in 2-WR formation.   His target share is massive (with Ridley) when that happens - except Ridley's total is literally 20+ yards higher.     Smash Smash Smash it now - this line is going to skyrocket with Zay Jones news

 

NEW ADDED FRI PM: Bijan Robinson o25.5 Rec yes 2U / 50+ Rec yds +320 1U DK - @SaveOurSonics original call for the main line;  Jax run D is stellar but as per @N4L’s stays they’ve given up 6-7 catches 30+ Rec yds to the IND / HOU RB and 40+ to the KC RB’s.   Now they get Bijan?  Have to take this shot.

 

EARLY

Raheem Mostert O51.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ +300 1U, 100+ +900 0.5U DK - please, Raheem, be healthy for the game.  I imagine this is partly due to Devon Achane's stellar 2H performance - but keep in mind Mostert is stil the 70-30 guy (Achane taking over most of the work in 2H coincided with MIA being 30+ pts ahead).    

ADDED SUN AM:   Jaylen Waddle o61.5 rec yds 2U DK - he thrives vs zone.   BUF almost total zone.  With UK game going 2-0 and 1 alt line hit, I’ll take the 2U play here.
 

Amari Cooper O58.5 rec yds 2U, 80 yd FD line pending, 100+ rec yds +450 - with Nick Chubb out, and BAL's stout run D, we're likely going to see another Cooper 10+ target game.  CLE transitioned to a mobile pass game with Chubb gone, I believe they'll do the same hee.   Wherever the line lands once alt lines come out, IMO it's going to be too low, as my number was 6-75 for Cooper vs. BAL's pass funnel D.    The DK 75+ wasn't great at +160, so I'll wait on the 80-yd FD line and hope it's +200 or better.

Jerry Jeudy O52.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - he's baaaaaack.  He survived for the first 2 weeks back, and 6 weeks+ out, he should have his hammy be OK, and what a time to come back, with the Bears D in disarray..   

DJ Moore O43.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds +320 1U, 100+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK - I don't know if ppl realize just how bad DEN's D is.  We can't stop the run, but we also can't stop the pass - and Vance Joseph does NOT use PS2 in shadow coverage, we play this read and react zone that is so passive.   At that number, I'm happy to take it.   I won't take the alt lines for now, but let's see how TNF goes before making a final call.

Rasheed Shaheed O35.5 rec yds 2U / 50+ rec yds +200 1U DK - I know, I know, I said no more NO props until Carmichael / Dennis Allen show me otherwise.   The reason I'm changing my tune is 2-fold - first, this is a pass funnel D to the nth degree.   TAM got manhandled in the run game by PHI, but that's how great their OL is.  NO is nowhere close.  The other reason - gunslinger Jameis Winston is back in town, and if there's a guy who's unafraid to take the deep shot, it's Famous Jameis.   Happy to get 50+ at +200 too.

NEW FRI AM - Joe Mixon U55.5 rush yds 2U DK - tailing @SmittyBacall on the 2 Bengal props, I believe only 3 RB's have rushed for more than 55 yards on the Titans D in the last 3 years.    So easy call, especially when I combine it with:

NEW FRI AM - Tee Higgins O56.5 rec yds 2U (now 57.5) / 75+ rec yds +200 1U (now +180) / 100+ +480 (now +450) 0.5U DK - Smitty covered this, nothing really needed to add.  The Roger McCreary spot and Tee's return to his home state after probably his worst game ever - like AJ Brown, sets up for a big rebound. I'm in. 

 

LATE

Nothing out yet

SNF/MNF

NEW MON AM:  Darius Slayton O38.5 rec yds FD 2U, 75+ rec yds DK +400 1U, 100+ rec yds +1000 DK 0.5U - if I love Hyatt's chances for a TD (+900), I have to take the #1 WR on the G-men.  SEA plays zone 85% of the time, and Slayton's 7/ 11 catches are in zone.   He's taking 34 percent of the air yard share, and 44% last year, and is #2 in targets with 17 (and leads the WR's and only WR with 80+ of snaps - Isaiah Hodgins is the guy who loses time to Hyatt now).   SEA's missing their nickel and top 2 backup CB's.  Gotta take the alt line play with Saquon Barkley out.

NEW MON AM:  Darren Waller O47.5 rec yds 2U, 75+ rec yds 1U DK - the obvious other play - he's #1 in targets and also has over 80% snap share.   SEA has a terrible TE pass D, bottom 5.   Please, please please don't get hurt this game. 

 

That's 30U in Sunday plays so far.  As I was given a free 0.4U play, I'm going with the 7-leg (Mixon U55.5, / Kirk O48.5 / Jeudy O52.5 / DJ Moore O43.5 / Shaheed O35.5 / Cooper O60.5 / Mostert O51.5 for +7200 - YOLO!. 

 

LONGSHOT TD (9-38, +24.4U)

UK GAME

Tim Jones +1000 0.4U FD / +12500 Bovada / Bodog 0.1U  - Zay Jones is doubtful, so Tim Jones becomes the 3rd WR in the RZ rotation (Jamal Agnew is the gadget / between 20's guy & occ RZ snaps, but Jones is the bigger body).  I honestly think books don't have him because they get Zay & Tim mixed up.  Another example where having diff books pays off in closing line value (CLV).

Jonnu Smith +800 / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U (+600 or +500 elsewhere) - @SaveOurSonics covered it, the Falcons are giving him as many targets as Kyle Pitts (!!! lol) and he's on the field so much in RZ territory with 12 formation.   Worth the 0.4U / 0.1U stab.

EARLY

Tanner Hudson +1000 / +12500 0.4U / 0.1U B365 / Bodog /Bovada (full credit to @SmittyBacall here) - Irv Smith DNP, known hammy injury that he missed week 3 for, high likelihood he doesn't play, and TEN pass D great target.

Trent Sherfield +1000 Bodog (+850 DK, +600 FD lol) / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U/0.1U & Khalil Shakir (+1000 DK & FD, +450 Bodog lol) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U - this is a cheap way to get a piece of the BUF-MIA game TD wise.    Both split the slot work in the RZ (Deonte Hardy gets most of his work between the 20's).   Given how much of a shootout this projects to be, totally worth it to play both, especially given the wide variation in lines.  I show the wide variation in odds to demonstrate why it's important to have multiple books, both guys are NOT playable at the lowest lines.

NEW FRI AM - Brevin Jordan +1600 Bodog, +1500 DK 0.4U / +17000 2+ DK 0.1U - Seeing Dalton Schultz, it's clear his lack of athleticism doesn't play well in HOU's uptempo O.   Jordan's only been on the field for about 12-15 plays, but he's showing better chemistry, and he scored as a +3000 play (!!!) last week.   Wish I knew he was that high.   He's got the Parham / Juwan / Jody Fortson profile of the 2nd TE who's a matchup problem.   Only a 0.5U play until I know if he's going to be packaged near the EZ more. 

NEW FRI AM - Brycen Hopkins +1300 / +15000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - why the 1U play?   Well, Tyler Higbee played on MNF an missed both Wed & Thu practices, with an Achilles injury.   I'd still play this for 0.5U if Higbee was confirmed to be in - but with his status in doubt, I'll jump in for +1300.  As a contrast, Bodog has Hopkins in for +275, so they obv think Higbee isn't playing.  Fingers crossed...another athletic mismatch to root for.

NEW SAT AM - Juwan Johnson +425 / +7250 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - got a 50 percent boost but only applicable to a max 0.2U bet, so going to the well with Juwan, with a pass funnel  in TAM.  

Keep an eye out on DK/FD for both Hudson & Tim Jones daily, and on Sunday AM, when inactives are out. 

NEW SAT - Harrison Bryant +1200 / +15000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK -  wasn't up for long with Njoku news but obv mega value.   Hopefully unlike Cole Turner he finds the EZ lol. 
 

NEW SUN AM: Equinameous St Brown +1800 / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK added with Chase Claypool inactive - still likely a donation but he’s likely active and only big body wr with any experience today - playable up to +1000 but only half-stake. 

LATE

Nothing out yet

SNF/MNF

SNF

NEW FRI AM - Noah Gray +700 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - this DK line is crazy, he's anywhere from +250 (lol) to +450 everywhere else.  With the Jets' CB's, again this funnels to the TE's, and I'm sure the attention will go to Kelce.   Gray is actually on the field >60 percent of the time, and in the RZ, with 12 formation, I think he's a designed target this week at least 1-2x.   Now, Gray's missed 2 practices with a flu-like illness, so if he's out, take Blake Bell instead.

NEW SUN PM - Blake Bell +4000 0.5U Bodog - against NYJ's vulnerable TE D, don't need to explain it any more than 40-1 for the 3rd TE who gets 5-8 snaps in RZ.

NEW SAT AM - Jalin Hyatt +900 FD (now +750) / +9000 DK 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U - was able to get this at opening, still playable at +600 at 0.5U or better.   Deep middle threat who's getting more snaps and targets, with SEA's vulnerable secondary. 

NEW MON AM - Colby Parkinson +750 / +9000 DK 0.4U/0.1U - Will Dissly is back, which is a headache, but Noah Fant added. to injury report, so Parkinson def worth a half-stake stab.

That now makes a total of 8U for SUN TD props (Hyatt's for MNF), and so 42U total for Sun/Mon, so I'll stop for now.

 

WEEK 4 to TNF

ATS/ML - 4-7-1, -3U (Wk4: 1-0, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS - 21-23, +0.2U (Wk4: 2-1, +5.4U)

LONGSHOT TD - 8-36, +24.2U (Wk4: 0-2, -1.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100)

TOTAL - +21.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: +4.9U; 166U stake so far)

Edited October 2, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

23 hours ago, N4L said:

It is a shame Monty may not play. Smash spot for him running downhill on GB with a lead. I am excited to turn on the gibbs tape from this weekend and see how he looked between the tackles. I heard that he looked better in the 2nd half. It could be that a consolidation of their backfield will actually prove to be profitable for us, but it also means a slightly larger hurdle to clear. 

Gibbs looked much improved in the 2nd half. It's still evident he has vision issues (several missed opportunities), but he can turn 2 yards into 10 in a hurry when given space. Seemed like Detroit wore down Atlanta through the game. 

Should be interesting to monitor Taylor Decker's availability. 

[SaveOurSonics]

29 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

HOU ML +140 (WAIT FOR INJURY REPORTS)

Yep. Hit this one already. Love a home dog that is arguably more talented than the favorite. I also added 1u to Texans Race to 10. Pitt's offense has struggled early in every game this season. 

29 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

LAR ML +100 @ IND

Undecided if I'll tail the ML play here, but I'll definitely be teasing the Rams up. 

[SaveOurSonics]

30 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

SEA ML +100 - I really respect Brian Daboll as a HC.   And the SEA D is vulnerable.

You're not wrong, but I think the defense is vulnerable in an area that NYG struggles to exploit: the deep middle of the field. 

The Seahawks run D has been exceptional early this season with the additions of Jarran Reed, DreMont Jones, & Bobby Wagner. Not to mention, they'll be adding Jamal Adams to that group this week. 

I'd encourage you to check out Jalin Hyatt ATTD props this week. If the Giants want to compete, they'll need to test these Safeties deep. 

The wrong team is favored here. 

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

You're not wrong, but I think the defense is vulnerable in an area that NYG struggles to exploit: the deep middle of the field. 

The Seahawks run D has been exceptional early this season with the additions of Jarran Reed, DreMont Jones, & Bobby Wagner. Not to mention, they'll be adding Jamal Adams to that group this week. 

I'd encourage you to check out Jalin Hyatt ATTD props this week. If the Giants want to compete, they'll need to test these Safeties deep. 

The wrong team is favored here. 

Yeah, I've been hoping they'll see Hyatt hasn't scored, or accumulated stats...but his snap count keeps rising.   Shhhhhhhhhhh.

[Broncofan]

One UK game play I forgot to add:

Christian Kirk O48.5 rec yds 2U FD / 75+ +260 1U DK / 100+ +700 0.5U DK - the Jags just announced Zay Jones is doubtful.  When Jones doesn't play, that means Kirk plays slot AND outside in 2-WR formation.   His target share is massive (with Ridley) when that happens - except Ridley's total is literally 20+ yards higher.     Smash Smash Smash it now - this line is going to skyrocket with Zay Jones news

Edited September 27, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

One UK game play I forgot to add:

Christian Kirk O49.5 rec yds 2U / 75+ +260 1U / 100+ +700 0.5U DK - the Jags just announced Zay Jones is doubtful.  When Jones doesn't play, that means Kirk plays slot AND outside in 2-WR formation.   His target share is massive (with Ridley) when that happens - except Ridley's total is literally 20+ yards higher.     Smash Smash Smash it now - this line is going to skyrocket with Zay Jones news

thankyou!!!

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, thebestever6 said:

thankyou!!!

Crazy - FD is 48.5 (no alt lines), so mixed FD 2U and DK alt lines.

[SaveOurSonics]

Threw 1u on CKirk O49.5 yards. 

 

Feels like a lock barring injury (which I have had terrible fortune with through 3 weeks). 

[thebestever6]

@Broncofandoes Dotson for the commanders ever line up in the slot? I had to take it at 36.5 but can always cash out they're going against Philly. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Made a couple of fun Teasers + straight up plays at the casino tonight. Will post a bit later. Very frustrating they don't have any player props up (not even Lions/Packers) so gonna have to turn to the online platform for that. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Some ATTD lines I'm eyeing right now...

Jonnu Smith +800 - Falcons backup TE, he gets a lot of snaps in their goal line personnel & has the speed to house one with space. 

Latavius Murray (+250) and/or Damien Harris (+500) - Both of these numbers seem crazy to me. It's the highest implied total of the weekend & these are the Bills two goal line RBs. I might hit both of these, but love the Harris line in particular. 

Durham Smythe (+350) and/or Tyler Kroft (+1100) - Again, I might hit both of these. Smythe has been getting a ton of RZ targets & Kroft is the backup brought in on goal line personnel. Same logic as the last one. 

Ryan Tannehill (+750) - Gut call here. Tannehill hasn't been running much, but he's mobile & I can just see this. He's averaged 5 rushing TDs per season with the Titans, & already has 1 in 2023. Get this, his odds are lower than Jake Brownings! 

Treylon Burks (+350) - I just think those are really good odds for the Titans #1 deep threat in a game against weak Safeties. May not play this one per @Broncofan guidance to go for longshots. 

Justin Fields (+100) - Obviously you don't love +100, but I do love Fields to score against a defense that just got gashed by speed last week. Again, may not play. 

Roschon Johnson (+250) - This line keeps getting smaller by the week. Roschon just out-touched Herbert last week, & I expect that gap to grow more this week. I think this game has sneaky Over potential (two bad defenses & in Chicago) & I have a lot of plays I like here. 

Marvin MIms (+450) - Another line that continues to shrink. Mims can beat you on deep balls & special teams. I will continue to like this line so long as the Broncos defense is this bad. 

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (+1000) - More of a Broncofan play, but I like the Over here & I like Humphrey's jump ball ability with Russ at these odds (Brandon Johnson is cooked all the way up to +550). 

Jake Ferguson (+300) - Another one I will continue to hit at these odds. Dak Prescott leads the NFL in TE targets since taking over as starter. Ferguson may not get a lot of looks, but he gets the ones that count. 

Michael Gallup (+375) - If you can't tell, I think the Cowboys win this one comfortably, so I want action on their guys. Brandin Cooks is currently sitting at +295, & I don't expect him to play. Expect this number to shrink if/when that is announced. Gallup looked great last week & should avoid Christian Gonzalez. 

KaVontae Turpin (+1100) - Again, I see Dallas bouncing back in a big way. Turpin is a dynamic return man & I don't mind throwing a fraction of a u on him housing one. 

 

Let me know what you guys think! Might place some of these now & wait for feedback on others. 

 

Edited September 28, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

Will Jaire Alexander follow Amon-Ra to the inside or will he maintain the outside on someone like Josh Reynolds?? 

@Broncofan @N4L @anyone else who might know

[SaveOurSonics]

22 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Some ATTD lines I'm eyeing right now...

Jonnu Smith +800 - Falcons backup TE, he gets a lot of snaps in their goal line personnel & has the speed to house one with space. 

Latavius Murray (+250) 

Damien Harris (+500) - Both of these numbers seem crazy to me. It's the highest implied total of the weekend & these are the Bills two goal line RBs. I might hit both of these, but love the Harris line in particular. 

Durham Smythe (+350) and/or Tyler Kroft (+1100) - Again, I might hit both of these. Smythe has been getting a ton of RZ targets & Kroft is the backup brought in on goal line personnel. Same logic as the last one. 

Ryan Tannehill (+750) - Gut call here. Tannehill hasn't been running much, but he's mobile & I can just see this. He's averaged 5 rushing TDs per season with the Titans, & already has 1 in 2023. Get this, his odds are lower than Jake Brownings! 

Treylon Burks (+350) - I just think those are really good odds for the Titans #1 deep threat in a game against weak Safeties. May not play this one per @Broncofan guidance to go for longshots. 

Justin Fields (+100) - Obviously you don't love +100, but I do love Fields to score against a defense that just got gashed by speed last week. Again, may not play. 

Roschon Johnson (+250) - This line keeps getting smaller by the week. Roschon just out-touched Herbert last week, & I expect that gap to grow more this week. I think this game has sneaky Over potential (two bad defenses & in Chicago) & I have a lot of plays I like here. 

Marvin MIms (+450) - Another line that continues to shrink. Mims can beat you on deep balls & special teams. I will continue to like this line so long as the Broncos defense is this bad. 

Lil'Jordan Humphrey (+1000) - More of a Broncofan play, but I like the Over here & I like Humphrey's jump ball ability with Russ at these odds (Brandon Johnson is cooked all the way up to +550). 

Jake Ferguson (+300) - Another one I will continue to hit at these odds. Dak Prescott leads the NFL in TE targets since taking over as starter. Ferguson may not get a lot of looks, but he gets the ones that count. 

Michael Gallup (+375) - If you can't tell, I think the Cowboys win this one comfortably, so I want action on their guys. Brandin Cooks is currently sitting at +295, & I don't expect him to play. Expect this number to shrink if/when that is announced. Gallup looked great last week & should avoid Christian Gonzalez. 

KaVontae Turpin (+1100) - Again, I see Dallas bouncing back in a big way. Turpin is a dynamic return man & I don't mind throwing a fraction of a u on him housing one. 

 

Let me know what you guys think! Might place some of these now & wait for feedback on others. 

 

 

Alright I placed wagers on the bolded. Will wait for counterpoints on the others. Probably won't play the ones sub-+300. Closest to playing Ferguson as of right now. Really liked the others. Looked more into Tyler Kroft, who barely had any numbers last year & hasn't played yet this season. Not betting on that, but it made me feel much better about my Smythe wager. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by SaveOurSonics