Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

Tanner Hudson to score opened at +1000 1U (and +12500 to score twice 0.2U). Get on it.

Irv Smith was DNP on Wednesday. Trending in the right direction for Hudson to start again Sunday.

Damn, not even available on my book. I'll have to make a special request for the odds lol. 

Somehow they have Josh Whyle, Trevon Wesco, & Mason Kinsey as ATTD options from this game but not Hudson. 

[SaveOurSonics]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Re: firing, I don't think we're going to see Josh McDaniel fired in-season, and we may not see it this offseason, either.  Mark Davis is the most cash-poor owner in the NFL (he has 1 other asset - the Las Vegas Aces).    Reports indicated he was able to fire Jon Gruden only because it was with cause (the email firestorm) that allowed most of the remaining contract to be voided.    McDaniels certainly has earned consideration, but it's not a great bet at those odds given what we know about Mark Davis.    TBH, that's the issue with Staley as well - the Spanos family are super-cheap.   

Staley is a lock to be fired if the Chargers miss the playoffs, but I think that's end of season.   McDaniels is likely only 50-50 to be gone at end of season, given Mark Davis' $ situation.   I'm not sure I'd want to bet them as first, given someone usually gets fired in-season.

 

Agreed. Hence the smaller unit plays on those two serving as more of a hedge on Eberflus than anything. 

Agreed that McDaniels odds are way off, but I wanted to grab them for insurance. Staley feels like an inevitable firing this offseason, & I really don't think Spanos would use money as the excuse to wipe their hands clean of him with only a handful of games remaining. That said, there's a reason it's +800, so I'm fine through a fraction on it to cover my other bets. 

Like I said, best scenario I make +1.7u & worst case is I lose -0.3u if one of these 3 are the first to be fired. These are my 3 favorite candidates, so I like the potential to profit here. 

[SaveOurSonics]

5 hours ago, Broncofan said:

If it's solely kick returns, can't really bank on that.  If you think he's getting work in a blowout, it's totally playable, but it's tough because there are other guys they want to work in (Jalen Tolbert the main guy).  Pass as well.

Ended up playing this one. To your point, it's not just about special teams (although certainly mostly). I am projecting a blowout by Dallas that will result in some of the tertiary pieces seeing more work. Whether that's Turpin or not remains to be seen. 

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Dotson has about 80+ slot snaps, which is a good sign; it's truly crazy how little he's used. 

I keep betting on positive regression & I keep losing money because of it lol. 

This is the first week where I don't have any action on him, so expect the eruption game. 

[SaveOurSonics]

12 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Will Jaire Alexander follow Amon-Ra to the inside or will he maintain the outside on someone like Josh Reynolds?? 

@Broncofan @N4L @anyone else who might know

You have any thoughts on this one Bronco? 

Or anyone else. Preferably a Packers fan. 

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

You have any thoughts on this one Bronco? 

Or anyone else. Preferably a Packers fan. 

Jaire doesn’t usually follow.  But the issue is both ASRB’s  turf toe and the fact the run game is such an easier path. OC Ben Johnson is a bright guy.  It’s hard to think he won’t try to pound the ball at Lambeau.    

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Jaire doesn’t usually follow.  But the issue is both ASRB’s  turf toe and the fact the run game is such an easier path. OC Ben Johnson is a bright guy.  It’s hard to think he won’t try to pound the ball at Lambeau.    

I hear ya, but he shined last week with the same injury, is averaging nearly 10 targets a game despite getting hurt mid-game Week 2, Goff's O/U Attempts is 35.5, & from what it sounds like will largely avoid Jaire Alexander, which should only further amplify his target share. 

Edited September 28, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

14 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

& some Player Props I like.....

 

Jared Goff U35.5 Attempts (1u)

 

I did end up getting this play in last night. Just looked at the line & it's now 34.5 -121...

[N4L]

On 9/26/2023 at 1:07 PM, Broncofan said:

DET ML -110 (7-pt auto-win offer on DK) - DET OL & run game really give GB D a problem.  Unlike NO I’d expect the OC to exploit this mercilessly.   I’m ok with taking this knowing DK offers the 7-pt auto win. 
 

PLAYER PROPS 

Luke Musgrave O33.5 (now 38.5) Rec yds, 50+ Rec yds +200 1U  (now +150 - not playable imo) - the line has gone nuts.   If you’re at 40 then you can’t really justify the alt line; go with single play only.  
 

Jayden Reed o37.5 Rec yds 2U FD (38.5 DK) - he’s the #2 target guy with Romeo Doubs slightly ahead - but he only plays in 11 formation as the slot guy.  So being disciplined with main line play only (and can’t take 75+ as a 1U 1st alt line play.  
 

David Montgomery O45.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ rush yds +440 1U DK - this one is a roll of the dice on Monty's health.   If he's even close to 95 percent, with GB's run D and DET's OL, he should smash 75+ with 15 carries.   It's really just a Q of whether they use him that much.   But he's gone 15-122, 14-61, 10-42 (playing way behind early), 22-69 & 11-103 on FAR worse OL in DET.  I used the 0.2U max 50 percent boost to get Monty's 75+ alt line from +400 to +440 as it's my last addition and the boost came after.   YOLO play for sure.

So that's 8U in 3 player props, using the 2023 data so far and adjusting to players with more guaranteed volume.

I am on all of these and will add:

Jordan Love over 240 passing yards - I expect the lions DL to give GB some issues running the ball, so the packers may have to air it out as a result. With watson back, I like him to take a shot or two down the field to him. Interesting angle here is that this is Love's first primetime start. The packers are incentivized to make him look good. This is a huge game between the two best teams in the division so I expect MLF to be in his bag. 

Under 34.5 Goff pass attempts - Lions arent a high volume passing team and like you said, the lions are going to run the ball down the packers throats. Their LBs are bad bad bad at run fitting and the lions are not going to have a problem with continuing to run. Goff road home splits are terrible, especially when it is a night game where its a little colder. 

I have come around to the under 45. Lions running ball means chewing clock. The packers offense continues to operate at a little slower pace. They consistently snapped the ball with <5s on the play clock against the falcons, even in the first half. Just seems like a 21-17 type game. 

I really love the way we have played this because if Love doesnt throw for 240 yards, the lions will win the game, and the lions could win by a lot and love could hit 240 yards. So, we can win on both sides, but if the lions lose, then Love will basically be assured to have more than 240. So, it is halfway a hedge but I am expecting to win both of those bets. 

[SaveOurSonics]

ARSB O6.5 Catches + O73.5 Yards (0.7u @ +150) - Alright, I'm banking on Jaire not following ARSB into the slot, which is just going to amplify his target share. 

[SaveOurSonics]

One more for good luck....

 

Christian Watson O3 Catches + O40.5 Yards (0.6u @ +180) - If they're letting him play, I really don't think he'll be limited. A guys either ready or he isn't this many weeks off a hammy. Watson is a deep ball specialist & Love has loved the deep ball. I can easily see a 4 for 70 day here. 

[thebestever6]

great call om Montgomery @Broncofan never doubted you and took the 100 alt line bc of my confidence in you lol.

[Broncofan]

On 9/26/2023 at 4:07 PM, Broncofan said:

Ok let’s build the TNF Card:

WEEK 4 TNF

ATS / ML

DET ML -110 (7-pt auto-win offer on DK) - DET OL & run game really give GB D a problem.  Unlike NO I’d expect the OC to exploit this mercilessly.   I’m ok with taking this knowing DK offers the 7-pt auto win. 
 

PLAYER PROPS 

Luke Musgrave O33.5 (now 38.5) Rec yds, 50+ Rec yds +200 1U  (now +150 - not playable imo) - the line has gone nuts.   If you’re at 40 then you can’t really justify the alt line; go with single play only.  
 

Jayden Reed o37.5 Rec yds 2U FD (38.5 DK) - he’s the #2 target guy with Romeo Doubs slightly ahead - but he only plays in 11 formation as the slot guy.  So being disciplined with main line play only (and can’t take 75+ as a 1U 1st alt line play.  
 

David Montgomery O45.5 rush yds 2U, 75+ rush yds +440 1U DK - this one is a roll of the dice on Monty's health.   If he's even close to 95 percent, with GB's run D and DET's OL, he should smash 75+ with 15 carries.   It's really just a Q of whether they use him that much.   But he's gone 15-122, 14-61, 10-42 (playing way behind early), 22-69 & 11-103 on FAR worse OL in DET.  I used the 0.2U max 50 percent boost to get Monty's 75+ alt line from +400 to +440 as it's my last addition and the boost came after.   YOLO play for sure.

So that's 8U in 3 player props, using the 2023 data so far and adjusting to players with more guaranteed volume.

 

LONGSHOT TD (2-TD not out yet, projected) 

Dontayvion Wicks +850 / +9000 0.8U / 0.2U DK (now +750 both FD & DK) - Christian Watson apparently  had a setback last week and missed practice yesterday; he's listed as limited, but it's only a practice estimation.  Watson told a reporter the plan is to play - but it's a short week, and he missed actual practices, this is still very iffy.  Books don’t realize Wicks is a lot more likely to start than initially reported today.. Scored week 2 & 1 RZ target each week so far, 6 targets last week.  Easy 1U full play, I suspect Watson would be eased in if he does play, giving Wicks chances to play; and if Watson doesn't, mega-value on the current line. 

Jared Goff +800 / +9000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK (now +700 on both DK / FD) - with Gibbs as main runner if it gets close to GL then DET has shown that they’ll use QB sneak or even slow QB RPO like last week.  Once David Montgomery is back I’m avoiding.  The other possibility…

Bam Knight +1200 0.4U / +15000 2+ 0.1U - with less than 1 week on team he split backup reps with Craig Reynolds.  Reynolds is +250 no value but this too good to psss up the half-stake shot. 
 

Waiting on the 2-TD props so those are estimates.  That’s 11U in total, with 1U on DET ML (7+ pt auto-win on DK), 8U on the 3 player props & 2U on the 3 TD props.  BOL!

 

Well, THAT was a much better night evaluation and results-wise. 

ATS/ML - 1-0, +1U played out exactly as I thought.  DET OL and run game just wore out the GB D.   The Lions ran it 42x vs. 28 passes - such an easier path to beat that Pack D.  

PLAYER PROPS - 2-1, +5.4U - frankly, unlucky that Luke Musgrave's prop lost - out with a concussion, and the GB TE's who replaced him got 39 yards (to Musgrave's 1 lol) - a 4U swing there.  I didn't take Monty's 100+ yd alt line prop, which was +1400 (LOL), but I won't look back, with injury return that was somewhat surprising, better to be safe.   Best part, Monty hit 45/75 so early, no sweat, and Reed's big play for the last play of 3Q made it so enjoyable. 

TD PROPS - 0-2, -1.5U - frankly, other than scoring an actual TD, I can't complain - Goff had 1 guy to beat to score, and Wicks actually had 3-4 snaps with Love looking to his side for the EZ score.   Way it goes.

Won't lie - feels good to get a prime-time evaluation dead-on.   And the player prop picks just felt way more sound using the top-2 WR / top-3 share / run-share certainty & good matchup & gameflow - perfect storm.   The extra 7U from 2nd alt line would have been awesome, but I'm not complaining with a 4.9U return.    Plus, the +5.4U night on props squares my ledger for 2023's props even though I'm "only" 21-23 (the power of alt lines).

On to Sunday!

WEEK 4 to TNF

ATS/ML - 4-7-1, -3U (Wk4: 1-0, +1.0U)

PLAYER PROPS - 21-23, +0.2U (Wk4: 2-1, +5.4U)

LONGSHOT TD - 8-36, +24.2U (Week4: 0-2, -1.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900;   Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100)

TOTAL - +21.4U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4 to TNF: +4.9U; 166U stake so far)

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

OK so my Sunday card is pretty much rounding into shape:

PLAYER PROP ADDITIONS / ALT LINE ADDITIONS (TO EXISTING PROPS)

EARLY

Joe Mixon U55.5 rush yds 2U DK - tailing @SmittyBacall on the 2 Bengal props, I believe only 3 RB's have rushed for more than 55 yards on the Titans D in the last 3 years.    So easy call, especially when I combine it with:

Tee Higgins O56.5 rec yds 2U (now 57.5) / 75+ rec yds +200 1U (now +180) / 100+ +480 (now +450) 0.5U DK - Smitty covered this, nothing really needed to add.  The Roger McCreary spot and Tee's return to his home state after probably his worst game ever - like AJ Brown, sets up for a big rebound. I'm in. 

DJ Moore (already on O43.5 2U, stable) - added 75+ rec yds +320 & 100+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK - just can't  resist taking the full alt line against the DEN D. 

Jerry Jeudy (already on O52.5 rec yds 2U, now 54.5) - added 75+ rec yds +200 & 100+ +500 0.5U DK - likewise, just can't resist taking Jeudy against the CHI D.

So that's 8.5U added to the plays already taken (gulp)

 

LONGSHOT TD ADDITIONS

EARLY 

Brevin Jordan +1600 Bodog, +1500 DK 0.4U / +17000 2+ DK 0.1U - Seeing Dalton Schultz, it's clear his lack of athleticism doesn't play well in HOU's uptempo O.   Jordan's only been on the field for about 12-15 plays, but he's showing better chemistry, and he scored as a +3000 play (!!!) last week.   Wish I knew he was that high.   He's got the Parham / Juwan / Jody Fortson profile of the 2nd TE who's a matchup problem.   Only a 0.5U play until I know if he's going to be packaged near the EZ more. 

Brycen Hopkins +1300 / +15000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U - why the 1U play?   Well, Tyler Higbee played on MNF, but now has missed both Wed & Thu practices, with an Achilles injury.   He wasn't on the injury report last week, so this is new.   I'd still play this for 0.5U if Higbee was confirmed to be in - but with 89's status in doubt, I'll jump in for +1300 at the full unit play.  As a contrast, Bodog has Hopkins in for +275, so they obv think Higbee isn't playing.  Fingers crossed...another athletic mismatch to root for.

SNF

Noah Gray +700 / +9000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U DK - this DK line is crazy, he's anywhere from +250 (lol) to +450 everywhere else.  With the Jets' CB's, again this funnels to the TE's, and I'm sure the attention will go to Kelce.   Gray is actually on the field >60 percent of the time, and in the RZ, with 12 formation, I think he's a designed target this week at least 1-2x.   Now, Gray's missed 2 practices with a flu-like illness, so if he's out, take Blake Bell instead.

I've got Juwan Johnson at +425 / +4500 on DK, but I'd like to see what lines FD is offering (not out yet) before I dive in.   I am also very much waiting on Jalin Hyatt for MNF, hoping we're getting +600 or better.    That now makes a total of 5U for TD props, pending Hyatt on MNF, so I'll stop for now.

 

The Sunday card is updated on page 344 (also linked below), and only needs the FD Amari Cooper 80+ rec yard prop (likely around +200) to complete it at 36U (gulp again).  BOL!

 

 

Edited October 2, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

This thread is awesome. Absolute magic fellas. Tip of the cap all around. 

 

Here is a futures bet I love: 

Texans to win the AFCS +750. Someone told me they got this at +1000 so shop around. 

This line is massively mispriced.

The texans defense is night and day better from last year. Will Anderson is everything that people said about him. He is still pretty raw all things considered but he is a very savvy and smart player who is also an absolute freak of an athlete. I didnt check his testing numbers but I think he is basically stronger Myles Garrett. Their DL is actually pretty good. DeMeco is a top tier defensive coach. He has them playing really well as a unit. The team has bought in. They know they are the best houston team in many years. 

Their offense is pretty good. Their OL has been a big problem but theyve still put up points. They got Tunsil back last week and that was massive. They should get more back soon. Stroud is incredible, he also feels like the OROY (anyone know where that line has been hung?). They have a good OC in Bobby Slo. They feel like a complete football team and the world is sleeping on them. 

The colts are well coached but feel like a mess. Their defense is out of sorts and I just dont think they have the juice. 

The titans offense is dogsh!t. Their OL is bad bad bad and Tannehill is worse. No clue what happened to that guy but he is suddenly not an NFL starter anymore. Will levis or Malik Willis are worse. Their defense has some hitters though, but mainly on their front (byard is still great though).

The Jags are favored to win the division and I totally understand why, but the texans are at worst the 2nd best team in the division. Its great value. 

 

I know @SaveOurSonics and @Broncofan were talking earlier in the week about how they loved them against PIT this weekend. I played them in a large 7pt teaser to +10 with the under in that game. The steelers DL will give the texans some issues but I think Houston will be able to grind out some drives. The steelers got gashed on the ground by Kyle and someone who runs Kyle's offense in stefanski. So Bobby Slo should see the gameplan clearly. Demeco will eat canada's lunch. The texans defense is pretty physical.

People will wake up to them after this win. We wont get these division odds again. If the jags drop a game or two here, I will closely monitor their line. If I could get them around +250 I will consider risking aobut 50% of my HOU risk on the jags to win the division.