Weekly Bets Thread

[SaveOurSonics]

2 hours ago, MikeT14 said:

Brian Robinson O6.5 receiving yards

He only has 3 receptions on the season ,but they have gone for 49 yards. They need to get Howell more comfortable with check downs and I think this is to B-Rob's benefit some. Might be two catches but I like him to hit the small over. 

You have to believe Washington will prioritize getting the ball out quick against the Philly front. I do like this play. 

[SaveOurSonics]

15 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

great call om Montgomery @Broncofan never doubted you and took the 100 alt line bc of my confidence in you lol.

Do I regret not tailing this one? Yes I do. 

Will I now be tailing the Mixon U due to some sharp minds doing it? Yes I will. 

[thebestever6]

So Zay Jones gets ruled out and than Tim Jones goes from +1000 to +1200 I don't get it lol.

[N4L]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

Plus a great pass rush.  Need to see the BAL OL injury report before I go there   Probably just a pass.  CLE D looks legit. 

 

I took the under in the game. It is a great teaser leg as well IMO. 

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I took the under in the game. It is a great teaser leg as well IMO. 

Not sure if you’re a narrative type of guy, but Derrick Henry has essentially promised a big game this week. 

I was already wary of betting against the Titans at home. Just feels like a stay away game. If TEN shuts down Mixon, it’s gonna put a lot of pressure on an immobile Burrow. 

[SaveOurSonics]

On 9/28/2023 at 12:16 AM, SaveOurSonics said:

& some Player Props I like.....

 

Jared Goff U35.5 Attempts (1u) - He has not hit 36 attempts this season, & TNF games are notoriously low scoring. I also expect the Packers offense to be able to control the clock on the offensive end of things, limiting Goff's attempts. Very close to hitting this one. 

Sam LaPorta O17.5 Longest Reception (1u) - Playing this one. LaPorta has posted a yardage high of 45 & 23 yards in his last 2 games (exceeded 5 targets in each). No matter who Jaire covers, it won't be Sam. 

Jordan Love O36.5 Longest Completion (0.5u) - This one too. Love has only done this in 1 of 3 games so far -- hence the 0.5u play -- but he gets Christian Watson back this week (I think) & the Lions are beatable over the top. 

✅✅✅

All three of my original props hit. LaPorta hit on the 2nd drive of the game for fast cash. Goff never really got close (28 attempts). 

Unfortunately throwing 1.3u on ARSB & Christian Watson meant it was only a +1.2u slate instead of a +2.5u 🤦🏻‍♂️

Maybe someday I’ll learn to stop doing prop parlays! Probably not! 

Edited September 29, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

Texans rule out OTs Laremy Tunsil & Josh Jones. 
 

Yikes. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Some rushing props I’m eyeing…

***Derrick Henry O68.5 - I mentioned the narrative play. I won’t bet Titans, but I will bet on Henry delivering on his promise. If he’s saying it, Vrabel is listening. 

***Roschon Johnson O33.5 - This line is 7 yards less than Khalil Herbert, which is wild to me. Roschon out touched & snapped Herbert last week. He is the RB1 in Chicago.

***Javonte Williams O52.5 - Under the hood, Javonte has actually been exceptional so far. The best way to supplement a bad defense is a good run game. I expect Payton to lean into that. 

***Tony Pollard O71.5 - I want to keep hitting this line in smash matchups. His O/U carries is 17.5. He’s smashing 71.5 if he gets close to that. 

**James Conner U53.5 - I see him having less success than Mixon, & this is a yard more. I’ll wait to hear thoughts from @N4L.

 

*** = high confidence; already played 

** = mid confidence; haven’t played 

Edited September 29, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

And receiving…

 

**Tank Dell O47.5 - Ya I’ll keep playing this too. Only hesitation is that Houston’s OTs are out which neuters the Texans offense. 

***Kyren Williams O25.5 - His target share is insane. This is an easier hit than Bijan. 

***Justin Jefferson O99.5 - He’s crushing this number weekly on almost 13 targets per. Jaycee Horn still out, I don’t see how Carolina stops him. 

**Chris Olave O72.5 - This number seems low due to Carr being out. I don’t see Winston being shy getting it to his WR1 with revenge game narrative. 

**Gabe Davis O42.5 - I want a piece of this game & Davis feels like the lowest barrier to entry. 

***JaMarr Chase O81.5 - We’ve talked about the Titans shutting down Mixon. If that’s the case, they’ll go back to feeding Chase. 

***Keenan Allen O83.5 - Why would Herbert go away from him? LV’s secondary is terrible & Big Mike is out. 

**Jaxon Smith-Njigba O27.5 - Gut feel. A lot of people in Seattle are calling for him to get more involved & primetime feels like a great time. Should be a heavy pass game script for Seattle. 

 

*** = high confidence; already played 

** = mid confidence; haven’t played 

Edited September 29, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[thebestever6]

19 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Derrick Henry O68.5 - I mentioned the narrative play. I won’t bet Titans, but I will bet on Henry delivering on his promise. If he’s saying it, Vrabel is listening. 

Roschon Johnson O33.5 - This line is 7 yards less than Khalil Herbert, which is wild to me. Roschon out touched & snapped Herbert last week. He is the RB1 in Chicago.

I like these two but I was Aldo intrigued by Roschons receiving this game Denver gives alot of yards to rb through the air and its only 14.5.

Also you think Chig Okonkwo can have a big game Cincinnati is leaky against the te and 30.5 was a decent number I got him at with burkes out.

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Texans rule out OTs Laremy Tunsil & Josh Jones. 
 

Yikes. 

Yup that pulls the HOU ML play off my card.  

[SaveOurSonics]

7 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yup that pulls the HOU ML play off my card.  

Wish I could do that 🤡

Still have faith in Houston having the better game plan. Or at least I’m telling myself that as I have their ML, RACE10, & Tease +10 😅

[thebestever6]

4 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Ya this is a no doubt play. I'll be shocked if he doesn't beat us over the top lol. 

I was also debating on taking Daniel Jones passing yards from 230 all the way up to 300 Seattle has allowed 3 straight 300+ passing game performances. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Some rushing props I’m eyeing…

***Derrick Henry O68.5 - I mentioned the narrative play. I won’t bet Titans, but I will bet on Henry delivering on his promise. If he’s saying it, Vrabel is listening. 

***Roschon Johnson O33.5 - This line is 7 yards less than Khalil Herbert, which is wild to me. Roschon out touched & snapped Herbert last week. He is the RB1 in Chicago.

***Javonte Williams O52.5 - Under the hood, Javonte has actually been exceptional so far. The best way to supplement a bad defense is a good run game. I expect Payton to lean into that. 

***Tony Pollard O71.5 - I want to keep hitting this line in smash matchups. His O/U carries is 17.5. He’s smashing 71.5 if he gets close to that. 

**James Conner U53.5 - I see him having less success than Mixon, & this is a yard more. I’ll wait to hear thoughts from @N4L.

 

*** = high confidence; already played 

** = mid confidence; haven’t played 

 

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

And receiving…

 

**Tank Dell O47.5 - Ya I’ll keep playing this too. Only hesitation is that Houston’s OTs are out which neuters the Texans offense. 

***Kyren Williams O25.5 - His target share is insane. This is an easier hit than Bijan. 

***Justin Jefferson O99.5 - He’s crushing this number weekly on almost 13 targets per. Jaycee Horn still out, I don’t see how Carolina stops him. 

**Chris Olave O72.5 - This number seems low due to Carr being out. I don’t see Winston being shy getting it to his WR1 with revenge game narrative. 

**Gabe Davis O42.5 - I want a piece of this game & Davis feels like the lowest barrier to entry. 

***JaMarr Chase O81.5 - We’ve talked about the Titans shutting down Mixon. If that’s the case, they’ll go back to feeding Chase. 

***Keenan Allen O83.5 - Why would Herbert go away from him? LV’s secondary is terrible & Big Mike is out. 

**Jaxon Smith-Njigba O27.5 - Gut feel. A lot of people in Seattle are calling for him to get more involved & primetime feels like a great time. Should be a heavy pass game script for Seattle. 

 

*** = high confidence; already played 

** = mid confidence; haven’t played 

A few of the reasons I don’t take big number props: 

1.  Increases the chances gamescript, injury or other random events prevents the main line hitting.  
 

2.  It’s tough to get a > 55 percent hit rate to profit with the books vig taking 10-15 percent (-110 to -115 lines).    That’s where hitting alt lines comes in.  Or the longshots.   The problem is you can’t really take alt lines off 80-90 yard totals.   Jefferson’s 125+ payout is so small because it’s a smaller relative jump than when you go from 50-75.  
 

3.  I do think you want to target a strong target share if it’s yardage props.  TD’s are more about RZ opps but overall target share matters.   It’s hard to back JSN as a result unless the matchup screams a smash spot.  
 

4.  Most importantly the most popular players to casual fans almost certainly  get a higher number.  As the books know the overs are more popular.  There are always exceptions but I find more profit in targeting players who have a great target share but whose lines also aren’t set sky-high.   Because it’s also offering alt line goodness.   That’s such a huge diff maker.   

Now that’s how I look at the prop based on the players’ ceiling.   The matchup is obv a huge 2nd factor.  
 

The final part of player prop assessment I use - how gamescript affects the game.   I went hard on David Montgomery last night because I saw a DET W and the easiest path was the run game.     I raise this because if you consider the above - does the gamescript fit?  With Roschon Johnson if you think CHI is winning - rush props make sense.  If you think DEN is winning then Javonte Williams rush props and Roschon’s Rec yds props may fit better.  If you think LAR is winning big then it may make the Kyren Williams Rec props a lot less appealing.  But if you think JAX is winning then you probably love Bijan Rec yds props even more.  Given @N4L’s extra stats I’d actually take Bijan Robinson o25.5 2U & 50+ Rec yds +320 (DK - probably better on B365).  
 

The higher the number - the more certain you want to be that matchup  & gamescript supports the over.   
 

Rather than go with which props I like / pass on, sharing the methodology imo is more durable.   Whether you agree or disagree on a specific prop - if you use a methodology that works and then use it consistently - it can remove the biases we are prone to.   Hope that helps.  

Edited September 29, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

1.  Increases the chances gamescript, injury or other random events prevents the main line hitting.  

It does. I aim for props that are gamescript-proof (in my eyes). LaPorta O17 last night was gamescript proof. Goff U35.5 was effectively gamescript proof. I had mentioned that I think Bijan's receiving is gamescript proof (granted that's not a high number). 

 

4 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

3.  I do think you want to target a strong target share if it’s yardage props.  TD’s are more about RZ opps but overall target share matters.   It’s hard to back JSN as a result unless the matchup screams a smash spot.

Ya, again, this would be more of a gut call (similar to Love's O35.5 Longest Pass last night). Haven't hit it yet & would likely only through half u on it. That said, I buy narrative when situation dictates. I think NYG/SEA is a game primed to go Over & I want a piece of it. I think JSN is the lowest barrier to entry from that game (though I also like Lockett's line of 51.5). 

6 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

4.  Most importantly the most popular players to casual fans almost certainly  get a higher number.  As the books know the overs are more popular.  There are always exceptions but I find more profit in targeting players who have a great target share but whose lines also aren’t set sky-high.

I don't disagree with you, but I think you're ignoring quality betting opportunities if you're overlooking the top players. Jefferson has hit nearly 150 yards in every game. 99.5 is a high total, but it's already increased to 100.5 since I placed the bet. With Jaycee Horn out, there's little reason for this not to hit regardless of gamescript imo. The same was true last week of the plays I hit on with Keenan Allen, Deshaun Watson, & Tony Pollard. There are times when a studs line offers the best odds because their ceiling variance is so much greater than the tertiary targets. 

8 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Rather than go with which props I like / pass on, sharing the methodology imo is more durable.   Whether you agree or disagree on a specific prop - if you use a methodology that works and then use it consistently - it can remove the biases we are prone to.   Hope that helps.

Talking this stuff out loud always helps. I like to think I operate similarly when offering my rationale for each selection.