SaveOurSonics Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 Been rough sledding lately with the Teasers. Biggest Legs to sink my day were Lions +10, Bills ML, & Chargers +13. Bills & Chargers were particularly brutal. Lesson learned. They were all road teams. I will be much more strict with road teams moving forward (ironically I lost on TNF from choosing the Saints). Props weren't bad though. Joshua Dobbs O23.5 Rush Puka Nacua O61.5 Receiving Rashee Rice O38.5 Receiving Jake Bobo O22.5 Receiving Aaron Jones O50.5 Rushing CWatson O3.5 Receptions Seahawks Race20 - BARELY! Really disappointing that neither of those Packers lines hit.... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) For tonight, my card is going to go with low # props except for 1 MIN prop, simply because there's so much uncertainty, but the guys out / limited, and no Trent Williams really adds a ton of uncertainty to Kittle's role (and S Harrison Smith & the LB's have been pretty good at limiting TE's): ATS/ML MIN O17.5 +110 DK - I think SF wins, but I do think MIN's OL with their T's, they protect Kirk Cousins. I think SF still wins, but I'm ok with this total PLAYER PROPS Jordan Addison O49.5 rec yds FD (now 50.5) 2U, 70+ rec yds +200 & 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - SF runs a little more man D, but overall their zone predominates. Addison thrives vs. zone coverage, so I'm happy to take this line, and dabble with some alt lines. The MIN T's are doing a great job of protecting Kirk Cousins, which then allows the SF secondary weaknesses to get exposed more. I still have SF winning, but I do think the MIN pass game will find enough success to back Addison, and 1-2 other guys, including.... Alexander Mattison O17.5 rec yds FD 2U, 40+ rec yds +350 DK 1U - his usage has gone up with JJ's injury, with 5-6 targets and 40+ yards the last 2 weeks. I def don't want anything to do with his rush props. Ray-Ray Mcleod O13.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK (would take alt lines if offered) - I get it, CMC is likely playing, Ayiuk is the alpha (and his line in the 70's is more than fair). The X factor is with no Trent Williams, what happens to Kittle's usage. Either way, if Purdy wants to exploit matchups, then Mcleod vs. the #2 / #3 CB's is worth a look. NGL, I'd have taken 25+ & 40+ alt lines without hesitation (thinking they'd be near +300 and +800). LONGSHOT TD Ray-Ray Mcleod +800 / +10000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U DK - I already said to take it before, doubled up this AM. Sadly it's down to +550 now on DK, on Bodog it's +600, worth a half-unit play for reasons I've covered. That's it for now, hoping for a strong MNF to end Week 7! Edited October 23, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 23, 2023 Share Posted October 23, 2023 (edited) I'm on... Brandon Aiyuk O67.5 Receiving Alexander Mattison U19.5 Receiving I see I'm opposite of BF on that last one. I just think SF's LB unit is far too talented to let Mattison get any sort of YAC. It's the same rationale I had for Daniel Jones Rushing Under earlier in the year in this matchup. EDIT: The 49ers allow the lowest YPC to RBs in the league. So, while I could easily see Mattison with 4-5 receptions, I could also easily see that being for 12-15 yards. Edited October 23, 2023 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 (edited) 10 hours ago, Broncofan said: For tonight, my card is going to go with low # props except for 1 MIN prop, simply because there's so much uncertainty, but the guys out / limited, and no Trent Williams really adds a ton of uncertainty to Kittle's role (and S Harrison Smith & the LB's have been pretty good at limiting TE's): ATS/ML MIN O17.5 +110 DK - I think SF wins, but I do think MIN's OL with their T's, they protect Kirk Cousins. I think SF still wins, but I'm ok with this total PLAYER PROPS Jordan Addison O49.5 rec yds FD (now 50.5) 2U, 70+ rec yds +200 & 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - SF runs a little more man D, but overall their zone predominates. Addison thrives vs. zone coverage, so I'm happy to take this line, and dabble with some alt lines. The MIN T's are doing a great job of protecting Kirk Cousins, which then allows the SF secondary weaknesses to get exposed more. I still have SF winning, but I do think the MIN pass game will find enough success to back Addison, and 1-2 other guys, including.... Alexander Mattison O17.5 rec yds FD 2U, 40+ rec yds +350 DK 1U - his usage has gone up with JJ's injury, with 5-6 targets and 40+ yards the last 2 weeks. I def don't want anything to do with his rush props. Ray-Ray Mcleod O13.5 rec yds 2U FD/DK (would take alt lines if offered) - I get it, CMC is likely playing, Ayiuk is the alpha (and his line in the 70's is more than fair). The X factor is with no Trent Williams, what happens to Kittle's usage. Either way, if Purdy wants to exploit matchups, then Mcleod vs. the #2 / #3 CB's is worth a look. NGL, I'd have taken 25+ & 40+ alt lines without hesitation (thinking they'd be near +300 and +800). LONGSHOT TD Ray-Ray Mcleod +800 / +10000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U DK - I already said to take it before, doubled up this AM. Sadly it's down to +550 now on DK, on Bodog it's +600, worth a half-unit play for reasons I've covered. That's it for now, hoping for a strong MNF to end Week 7! Well, every once in a while, fortune smiles on us - and if you had 2U on Ray-Ray Mcleod like I did in BOTH DK & FD books.....well you are smiling from ear to ear. For all the big breaks that have gone against the TD plays (Jameson Williams dropping a sure TD being the latest), it's nice to get 1 back. That 4U win is a +8U swing, and feels like a relief after so many tough breaks, esp when D'Andre Swift cashes in 2U on O59.5 rush yds on his last run (so another 4U in our favor - after literally 10 prime-time missed TD's with 5x more the wrong way, this feels like sunshine after a long storm). Unfortunate that Akers & Chandler combined for 40+ rec yds, but that's also the risk when it's a shared backfield. And Ray-Ray didn't sniff the RZ this week. So that's -4U, so it's evens out tonight's tally with Ray-Ray's W. But Jordan Addison was a smash call hitting all the alt lines - and combined with MIN O17.5 (super-early no-sweat win), that's a +8.6U win today...which combined with yesterday's break-even -0.8U day (1-3 for -3U for the ATS/ML, 7-4 with +9.2U for player props & 0-9 for 8U on Sunday TD plays <damn you Jameson drop and Colby Parkinson tackled at 2>), and a +3.0U TNF, means it's a +12.3U Week 7, which I'll gladly take after that Week 6 carnage. On to Week 8! WEEK 7 FINAL ATS/ML: 11-18-1, -5U (WK 7 - 2-4, +0.8U) PLAYER PROPS: 54-51, +37.7U (WK 7, 12-7, +22.5U) LONGSHOT TD: 9-96, -17.4U (WK 7 TNF - 1-15, -11.5U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700) TOTAL - +15.3U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 TNF - +12.3U; 425U stake so far) Edited October 24, 2023 by Broncofan 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYRaider Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 On 10/22/2023 at 3:30 AM, NYRaider said: Some lines that I loved on prize picks: Desmond Ridder 0209.5 passing Sam Howell O225.5 passing Jameson Williams O16.5 receiving Kendrick Bourne O36.5 receiving Darren Waller O36.5 receiving Josh Downs O39.5 receiving 5/6 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 (edited) WEEK 8 TNF ATS / ML Nothing yet PLAYER PROPS Dalton Kincaid o34.5 Rec yds 2U / 60+ Rec yds +320 / 80+ Rec yds +700 0.5U FD - on surface this looks tougher because Tampa top 10 D yards allowed vs. TE. But they’re also really vulnerable to slot - and that’s what Kincaid plays - in 6 games he’s had over 90+ slot snaps. No Dawson Knox so this opens his target and snap share. Worth the full alt line play IMO. Mike Evans O56.5 rec yds 2U / 80+ rec yds +240 / 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - there isn't much to say here, BUF's D is a lot more vulnerable with the loss of Matt Milano and Daquon Jones (interior push and pressure). While that is why I've targeted the RB's, the TAM pass game is so Evans-heavy, I'm comfortable to go here, knowing Ridley went for 120+, Kirk for 6-78, Slayton for 4/69, and even NE's WR's went 6-63 (Bourne) & 4-54 (Douglas) on them. LONGSHOT TD's Khalil Shakir +1100 / +12500 2+ 0.8U/0.2U Bodog (+950/+9000 DK) & Deonte Harty +750 / +1100 2+ (DK & Bodog) 0.4U/0.1U - the 2+ TD number on Shakir on DK tells me the books are dropping this number down quickly. TAM's secondary is clearly worst at the slot, with Davis/Dean at the boundaries and 2 untested DB's sharing work (Izien & Hayes). When you add in that Dawson Knox is out, then it contracts the targets further. Shakir's the bigger body and his slot work has been increasing, but Harty is still very shifty and offers the threat to score from outside the 20's, and the occasional RZ snap. Harty's been in the +400 or +500 range before, so this is pretty decent value esp with Knox RZ shares becoming available. So this is worth splitting the stake on both guys, but giving Shakir the full play, and Harty the half-stake play. Reggie Gilliam +2200 / +25000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - so the Bills are going to missing ALL of their TE's except Kincaid. Gilliam (along with T David Edwards) have played TE in college, so I'm guessing they'll be there in-line in 12 formation. So I'm banking on a FB / TE2 decoy play. If it wasn't +2200, I wouldn't bother, but it's just too tempting to pass up lol. I don't have a great feel for the spread, or O/U, so that's pretty much it. So that's 11U (as I took the 2U play on FD & already had DK), more than enough. Hoping for a big Kincaid (and Evans) day; BOL! Edited October 26, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 49 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Khalil Shakir +1100 / +12500 2+ 0.8U/0.2U Bodog (+950/+9000 DK) & Deonte Harty +750 / +1100 2+ (DK & Bodog) 0.4U/0.1U I never seen that before so on bet365 the main td lines are the same as this post but for two tds both Shakir and Harty are +12500. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 (edited) 3 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: I never seen that before so on bet365 the main td lines are the same as this post but for two tds both Shakir and Harty are +12500. I suspect DK opened with Shakir at +1100 and it's been dropping. It's the only explanation; I see Shakir is already down to +800 & Harty is down to +700 there. Edited October 24, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 (edited) Only a few BUF props are out on DK but with Dawson Knox out Dalton Kincaid o36.5 Rec yards is low enough to hammer the full alt line ladder with 60+ & 80+ as well. I’m sure B365 can get even better odds on those. Added to the full TNF card above. Edited October 25, 2023 by Broncofan Wow FD - O34.5! Go there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 24 minutes ago, Broncofan said: hammer the full alt line ladder with 60+ & 80+ as well would you hammer 100 for +1550 part of me think that's a bridge too far but still great odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 24, 2023 Share Posted October 24, 2023 1 minute ago, thebestever6 said: would you hammer 100 for +1550 part of me think that's a bridge too far but still great odds. It’s not crazy but it’s probably not hitting I mean it’s +1550 lol. Diggs has the best matchup. And such a high floor for volume. But that’s why his number is so high. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 Not sure what any of the player prop lines are, but here's the players I'll be targeting at the line I'm predicting. Obviously if it's too far off this projected number, I won't play it. Would love any thoughts / feedback on these. RUSHING Breece Hall O65 - Giants bottom 5 run defense Jahmyr Gibbs O52 - Vikings bottom 10 run defense, worse on the road Kareem Hunt U55 - Seahawks run defense is #1 in the league & Hunt isn't the type of back to beat them Brian Robinson U45 - His touch share is vanishing as he relinquishes work to Chris Rodriguez Najee Harris U55 - Jags surprisingly stingy run D Joshua Kelley U52 - Kelley always seems to lay a dud as the starter, & Bears are top 5 run D Josh Jacobs U68 - Lions should be motivated at home to prove last week isn't their run defense Darrell Henderson U51 - After a heavy touch game, I think we see more Royce Freeman this time around PJ Walker O13 - Same as Dobbs last week, Seattle is very prone to QB scrambles Zach Wilson O19 - Giants are a bottom 3 run D against QBs Trevor Lawrence O23 - Steelers are terrible at defending the QB run, the weather doesn't look to be great, & TLaw has shown a motivation to take off Geno Smith U13 - The Browns defense is way too fast to let Geno get loose Desmond Ridder U19 - Same with the Titans defense; capitalize after a good rushing game from Ridder last week RECEIVING Saquon Barkley O25 - Jets are bottom 3 in RB receptions James Cook O25 - Tampa Bay is also bottom of the league in this stat Rhamondre Stevenson O23 - The Dolphins defense is good, but they struggle with receiving backs Travis Etienne U25 - The Steelers have been lights out against RB receptions & Etienne is coming off another good game in this category Amari Cooper O65 - They should move Cooper around enough to avoid Spoon. WRs have been eating against this zone defense when they avoid Spoon. Christian Kirk O65 - Steelers secondary is bad, Kirk is the target Zay Flowers O45 - Arizona's secondary might be worse & I don't want to be on Odell George Pickens O58 - Pickens maintained alpha status with Diontae's return last week Jordan Addison U72 - Capitalize off a big hype game, he won't do the same to Jaire Alexander DeAndre Hopkins U61 - AJ Terrell has been suffocating WR1s all year Hayden Hurst O17 - Texans have the worst TE defense in the league Gerald Everett O28 - The Bears are bottom 5 here as well; since Mike Williams went out Everett's target share has been rising Dalton Kincaid U52 - Capitalize off a big hype game, Tampa shuts down opposing TEs Noah Fant U35 - The Browns will all but take him out of the game Evan Engram U52 - The Steelers secondary is awful, but they've been great against TEs Dalton Schultz U55 - Same with Carolina 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 (edited) So the TAM TNF lines are out and one line seems worth taking - Mike Evans O56.5 rec yds 2U / 80+ rec yds +240 / 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - there isn't much to say here, BUF's D is a lot more vulnerable with the loss of Matt Milano and Daquon Jones (interior push and pressure). While that is why I've targeted the RB's in the past, the TAM pass game is so Evans-heavy, I'm comfortable to go here, knowing Ridley went for 120+, Kirk for 6-78, Slayton for 4/69, and even NE's WR's went 6-63 (Bourne) & 4-54 (Douglas) on them. TD-wise, with the news that BUF is missing ALL their TE's except Kincaid, it offers up a unique chance for FB Reggie Gilliam +2200/+25000 2+ DK (who played TE in college) to get more touches. NGL, if it was +1000, I wouldn't bother - but it's +2200 on DK, so I'll take the 0.4U/0.1U half-stake stab. Posted on card above, which is now pretty full. BOL! Edited October 25, 2023 by Broncofan 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted October 25, 2023 Share Posted October 25, 2023 (edited) OK so there are a few player props out, so there are about 3-4 that I do want to get in now on release, as I do think the lines are going to go way up: WEEK 8 SUNDAY SLATE ATS/ML EARLY NEW ADDED THU PM - MIN pick 'em @ GB 2U - Minny's OL, their D and the QB's match up so well vs. GB. I don't want the line to drop past a pick 'em for the value. NEW ADDED THU PM - NYJ -3 @ NYG - it's always scary to give points away when it's Zach Wilson & Nathaniel Hackett. But the Jets run game, their fantastic D all say they should control this game. NEW ADDED THU PM - HOU -3 @ CAR -125 - HOU's O really gives CAR problems, and the HOU D's biggest problem (coverage) is really offset by CAR's lack of weapons. I'll shave the extra 0.5 and pay the vig for push protection. ... LATE NEW ADDED SAT PM - CIN +6 @ SF - yes, Brock Purdy's back, and I expect he's OK physically. However, with Deebo Samuel already out and Trent Williams' status in the air, and CIN with a bye week, plus Joe Burrow and Tee Higgins approaching full health, I do like CIN's chances at staying within 1 score. If CIN gets to play SF without Trent Williams, then I'll consider a ML play as well. SNF/MNF NEW ADDED THU PM - CHI/LAC O46.5 - the LAC D is just that bad, while the CHI D's strengths (run D and Jaylon Johnson in coverage) allow LAC to exploit other matchups. So that's 6U in 5 plays so far, with CIN ML pending if I get news Trent Williams isn't playing. PLAYER PROPS EARLY Calvin Ridley O50.5 rec yds 2U DK, 70+ rec yds +200 1U, 100+ rec yds +700 0.5U DK - PIT allows 140+ yds per game to outside WR's. Even if Zay Jones doesn't play, this is a bigger Ridley game than Christian Kirk game. Kyle Pitts O32.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ Rec yds +320 1U, 80+ Rec yds +700 0.5U DK - TEN's run D is legit, and they just traded their all-world FS Keith Byard. I would have taken this with Byard given Pitts' talent, so I'm definitely on a full alt line play with him out. NEW ADDED THU - AM Breece Hall O68.5 rush yds 2U, 100+ yds +280 1U DK - with Dexter Lawrence back, the G-men run D is better, so I don't have quite the same confidence as I did when Hall faced the DEN run D, but it's still a spot to leverage, especially as I believe the Jets will be leading, and so leaning on the run game makes a lot more sense. Have to take the 100+ alt line given the game script. NEW ADDED THU AM - Nico Collins O51.5 rec yds 2U DK (now O57.5 FRI AM lol), 80+ rec yds +220, 100+ rec yds +450 0.5U DK - CAR has the lowest pressure rate in the NFL. Collins averages almost 3.8 yards per route run when CJ Stroud isn't pressured. FWIW Tank Dell also averages over 3.2 yards per route run, so can't argue that play, but because I'm going alt lines, I'll go with the guy who's had a more consistent target share. Will almost certainly go alt lines here. EDIT: FRI AM - holy prop CLV, up to 57.5...alt lines are less value, but still worth the play. NEW ADDED THU PM - Terry Mclaurin O56.5 rec yds, 80+ rec yds +240 1U, 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - Darius Slay is a great CB, but the one guy who's given him fits throughout is Mclaurin - 8/85 this year, and 100+ yards both games last year. So I'm definitely going the full alt line route here. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Rhamondre Stevenson O16.5 rec yds 2U FD, 40+ rec yds +360 1U DK - the week 3 game in NE vs. MIA is the only reason I hesitated before, when Rhamondre went 3-10 on 3 targets. But he's received 6 targets the last 2 weeks, and the matchup screams that they should be using him in the pass game just as much. As much as he's frustrated fantasy managers, this is really the start of a nice stretch for him, so long as they use him in the pass game. NEW ADDED SAT PM - Demario Douglas O26.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +300 1U DK - he's now their #2 snap share and target, and he's getting open, to the tune of over 5 YPPR. At 26.5 main line prop, it's easy to go 2U on the main line, and 50+ rec yds for +300. Mac Jones is why I won't go past 50, though lol. NEW ADDED SAT PM - Rasheed Shaheed O32.5 rec yds 2U FD, 50+ rec yds +220 1U DK & 70+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK - Michael Thomas gets added to the injury report Sat night - and what have I said on Shaheed - can't play him reliably unless one of Olave or Thomas goes down. Well it's not quite a lock, but that's also reflected in the lines, so I'm going with the YOLO play here. ... LATE Isaiah Pacheco O15.5 rec yds 2U DK, alt lines pending (EDIT FRI AM - none offered, would take at least 40+ rec yds) - nothing's changed from the TNF game 2 weeks ago with the DEN pass D - they're still super vulnerable to RB's. As the Chiefs are using Pacheco even more regularly on 1st/2nd down with passes, this is easy to hit. Rashee Rice O43.5 rec yds 2U DK, 60+ rec yds +200 1U DK - DEN is still a zone heavy team with Vance Joseph as DC, and we know that means Rashee Rice should thrive. The very obvious difference with the Chargers game when they went man in 2H is the only reason I may back off a 2nd alt line, as Rice's ceiling is predicated on being vs. zone NEW SAT PM: with the news on the potential 6-14 inches of snow and bitter cold, there are far better plays than this one. Sadly I'll pull the plug on Rice props. I'll take the -0.3U hit and factor it into my Week 8 tally. NEW ADDED THU PM - George Kittle O40.5 rec yds 4U DK, 60+ rec yds 1U +240 & 80+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK & 100+ rec yds +1100 0.5U (6U total) - I shied away from taking the MNF line vs. MIN, but there are better reasons to dive in this Sunday. First off, Trent Williams isn't ruled out yet and that's the main reason Kittle wouldn't see as many targets (if he had to stay back to block). More importantly, CIN has a much harder time covering TE's since Jesse Bates left. So a 60+ & 80+ alt line play seems definitely in order when they are released, provided the line stays static at 40-ish. Given it's Sam Darnold, I think that's the main reason it will stay low. If the early slate goes well I’ll consider 100+ at +1100 0.5U but that’s all for now. EDIT FRI PM: The news Purdy is playing and Deebo is out, that adds even more ceiling, so I'm happy to go 4U on main line and add the 100+ +1100 0.5U play. I'm also going to use the 2nd free 0.4U bet credit on Kittle top Sunday receiver yardage-wise at +9000 as a YOLO play. . SNF/MNF NEW ADDED THU PM - DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds 2U DK, 80 Rec yds +220 1U, 100+ Rec yds +450 0.5U DK - this one's not complicated, LAC's pass coverage is abysmal. I do think LAC puts up points, so CHI is going to have to throw to keep up - and that's DJ Moore. NEW ADDED SAT AM - Roschon Johnson O11.5 rec yds 2U, alt lines pending (not offered, will take 4U if no alt lines) DK - this is a crazy number. CHI runs the highest screen pass rate, Bagent is a checkdown QB, and LAC is worst at defending screen passes. I'd want 25 & 40+ yard alt lines, but if they don't offer any, I'll go with the Kincaid/Kittle route and go 4U main line. I definitely want 2 more SNF plays (Donald Parham rec yds if it's below 20 and Roschon Johnson rec yds, assuming he's active). And I have 2 players where I need to see the rest of the injury reports before i decide to dive in again. So far that's a whopping 42U in 12 player props I'll likely be invested in, 34.5U with 10 guys on the daytime slot, plus Moore's 3.5U play on SNF & Roschon Johnson's rec yd prop with at least 1 more play I'd take if it's offered on SNF. I'll use my first 0.4U free bet on a 7-leg Ridley O50.5 / Pitts O33.5 / Collins O51.5 / Mclaurin O56.5 / Pacheco O15.5 rec yds / Kittle O40.5 / DJ Moore O57.5 rec yds YOLO 7-leg +7500 parley (which also allows a Moore hedge if I'm still alive lol), and the 2nd free 0.4U play on Kittle being top Sun yardage receiver at +9000. .... LONGSHOT TD EARLY NEW ADDED FRI AM - Dynami Brown +1700 / +20000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U & Cole Turner +1800 / +20000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U each DK - for Turner, it's more about FOMO, but with Brown, he's still getting chances, witness below. With the Eagles still being vulnerable in the pass game, these odds are too good to pass up (plus Curtis Samuel is a little dinged up, and Jahan Dotson might be in the doghouse after that critical drop): NEW ADDED FRI AM - Demario Douglas +700 / +10000 2+ 0.8U/0.2U Bodog - he's literally no higher than +450 everywhere else, and for good reason. He's their most dangerous weapon, and now he's their #2 guy in targets and snap share. Have to take a shot in a game where NE is likely having to catch up, and maybe garbage time brings more opps. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Calvin Austin III +850 / +14000 2+ 0.4U/0.1U DK - Diontae Johnson was a new DNP, and may be out. DK doesn't think so, while the other books have dropped Austin to +500 range. When Diontae was out, Austin was back in the rotation, and he's the clear #2 threat WR-wise (sorry A-Rob) behind Pickens. If Diontae plays, then this line is more in line but it's worth a half-stake play to get in if Diontae isn't playing. JAX's a true pass funnel D, so have to take the shot here. EDIT SAT PM: Diontae is active, damn, probably would have passed with this news, but it's only a half-stake play and it is at juiced odds, the matchup's great, but RZ / EZ volume is the Q. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Drew Ogletree +900 / +12500 2+ TheScore 0.4U / 0.1U - sorry if you guys can't get this one, it's about +500 everywhere else, and that's about right, so I may be flying solo on this one. Canuck bettors, there's definite value here, as Kylen Granson hasn't practiced yet, and if he doesn't practice by tomorrow, then he's out as per concussion protocol for another week, and that leaves Ogeltree as the top TE. NO has given up 2 TD's this year to TE's, so this is better odds than in prior years. NEW ADDED FRI AM - Noah Brown +500 / +8000 2+ Bodog (+500/+7500 2+ FD) 0.8U / 0.2U - Robert Woods is out, so that puts Brown as the #2 big target in the RZ vs. CAR. John Metchie is a great story, but Brown still gets more snaps, targets & RZ looks. Yet Metchie is the one at +300 most books while Brown is here. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Juwan Johnson +500 / +5000 2+ SportsInteraction (+400/+4000 on DK) 0.8U / 0.2U - as long as it's +400 and it's a good matchup, I've gotta go here. At +500/+5000, it's the full unit play, at +400 it's right at the half-unit vs. full-unit value IMO. Either way, gotta go here, esp with the Saints struggles in the RZ, if he's active, I imagine they'll be looking his way 1-2x in the RZ. ... LATE NEW ADDED FRI AM - Zach Charbonnet +450 / +6000 2+ 0.8U / 0.2U Bodog - Bodog hasn't caught on that Kenneth Walker has missed the last 2 practices, and Charbonnet has been upgraded to full practices. He's literally +250 or lower everywhere else. I get that CLE is a tough D, but they can give up the scores, so I have to take the shot with a real chance this is the starting SEA RB this week. EDIT SAT PM: Well Walkers's active, NGL this is the 2nd TD prop I would have passed on with this news - the flip side to trying to get in ahead of value. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Lil' Jordan Humphrey +1800 / +15000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U Bodog - Brandon Johnson is a true GDT, which should mean more Marvin Mims - but in the RZ, means Lil' Jordan gets more snaps. He's truly JAG, but at that number, have to take a half-stake stab. SNF/MNF NEW ADDED FRI AM - Derius Davis +1000 / +125000 2+ Bodog (waiting on FD/DK) 0.4U / 0.1U - with CHI's D, they're vulnerable to the big play - and that's now Davis. I'm totally willing to play this if it's the best line, but I'm holding out to see if DK/FD will put out an even better line, given his snap count and target rate aren't high. Sadly, with Gerald Everett's injury, Donald Parham isn't playable at +200 so far (UGH). NEW ADDED FRI PM - Donald Parham +400 / +4500 2+ (now +380 / +4200 almost right away) 1.2U/0.3U FD - with Gerald Everett out, and Josh Palmer iffy, this is a massive Parham script (with Keenan Allen and Ekeler). He's literally +180 to +200 in the other books, so I have to take the enhanced play here. That's all for now, there are a LOT of games without props, so I'll add to this and update as they come along. I've got 6U in 5 ATS/ML plays (with CIN ML 2nd bet pending injury reports on Trent Williams), 42U in 12 player props (although it's really 34.5U on Sunday's day slate with 10 players and DJ Moore 3.5U & Roschon Johnson 2-4U on SNF, with 1 more SNF play likely coming, and 9U for longshot TD's with 11 players (with 7U on the day slate, and 2U more on SNF - NGL, 1.5U on Calvin Austin III & Zach Charbonnet don't have nearly as much value now), so that's probably enough for the Sunday daytime slate at 40U total (gulp). BOL! WEEK 8 TNF ATS/ML: 11-18-1, -5U PLAYER PROPS: 55-52, +40.9U (WK 8 TNF - 1-1, +3.2U) LONGSHOT TD: 9-99, -19.4U (WK 8 TNF, 0-3, -2U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700) TOTAL - +16.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; WK 8 TNF; +1.2U; 437U stake so far) Edited October 29, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SaveOurSonics Posted October 26, 2023 Share Posted October 26, 2023 (edited) Are the Bengals +3.5 the too-good-to-be-true line of the week? With suspicions that the 49ers will be without Purdy, Deebo, & potentially Trent Williams & Dre Greenlaw, I'd contend that the Bengals should be favorites. That said, I've fallen for these traps before (Lions @BAL and 49ers @CLE). Both times, the hotter road team loses. I went ahead and put a unit on their +3.5. I've also placed them in a Teaser @ +10.5. I suspect the line will move closer to 49ers -1.5 when Purdy is declared out (as I suspect he will be), if not moving to the Bengals favor, at which point I plan on Teasing the 49ers as well. I see this being a dogfight of a game regardless of who's under center for SF. Edited October 26, 2023 by SaveOurSonics Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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