Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) On 11/22/2023 at 1:43 PM, Broncofan said: The TAM injury report is pretty significant with Jamel Dean gone, starting CB2 Carlton Davis and SS Ryan Neal hurting and their 2 best ILB's in Devin White & Lavonte David hurting, and that changes an already weak secondary and pass D. So taking TAM ML off the board. One Black Friday player prop to lock in & one TD play: Breece Hall O24.5 rec yds 2U DK, 39+ rec yds +200 1U, 55+ rec yds +500 (new 2nd alt line with diff thresholds) DK 0.5U - made the mistake last week of taking Hall rush yds, but in a game where they're likely trailing, his pass work is more reliable. Won't make that mistake this time. Only play I can back with such a meh QB situation (no, Tim Boyle isn't much better than Zach Wilson, but they have to try). DK has continued their 2 sets of alt lines, X+ & Alt lines....and the 2nd has more value again (40+ @ +190 & 60+ @ +550 on X+, while 39+ @ +200 and 55+ @ +500, I'll take the latter). Jeremy Ruckert +2000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - replaced CJ Uzomah, and took over 40+ percent of snap share. Tyler Conklin is still the starter, but Ruckert will get his looks, and if it's a MIA blowout, then those snaps go up. WEEK 12 BLACK FRIDAY To keep things interesting on both sides of the ball for Black Friday, and after much deliberation I've added Raheem Mostert O62.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ rush yds +210 1U & 98+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK (weird alt lines again) - NYJ's run D is their Achilles, and with no Achane playing, I'm ok taking the shot. It will be a nice foil to NYJ's Breece Hall O24.5 rec yds (plus alt lines) that I took earlier this week (and posted on page 376, with Ruckert TD props). On the flip side for TD's I'll go back to the well with MIA's 3rd WR option and Cedrick Wilson at +700 FD / +7000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U, to pair up with NYJ's Jeremy Ruckert (at a whopping +2000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U that I took earlier this week). So that's 8U in all for Black Friday, definitely enough for a game that could be really ugly given NYJ's pass D, and Tim Boyle at QB for the Jets. BOL! Edited November 24, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 2 more TD plays added for SUN… NEW ADDED FRI AM D’Ernest Johnson +800 / +9000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK @ HOU - some books think Tank Bigsby is the backup but it’s actually D-Johnson. He gets on the field regularly and had 2 touches inside the 10 last week. Against HOU this is definitely worth the half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI AM Tanner Hudson +800 FD / ?? 2+ (+8000 DK, waiting) 0.4U / 0.1U vs PIT - he’s become the lead pass catching TE but the books still think he’s 2nd - 3rd. PIT S Minkah Fitzpatrick still out which makes this viable but Joe Burrow out for season only makes this a half-stake play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 how confident are we in hall getting 4 catches got a 4 leg parlay he's the last leg they're offering me $178 for a $400 bet. keep in mind I already played halls catches separately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 6 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: how confident are we in hall getting 4 catches got a 4 leg parlay he's the last leg they're offering me $178 for a $400 bet. keep in mind I already played halls catches separately. Why don't you just take Hall U3.5 catches as a hedge? Like, bet $110 to win $100. Worst-case, you lose the $400 but win $100. Best-case, you win $290. Either way, you win. I prefer hedge bets and you still are rooting for a W, than giving up value on the cash-out. Really, they should be offering you at least $200, if not $220, for the implied value you've accrued. That cashout value lost adds up in the long run. It's your call, but from a value perspective, with hedging you get full value for your play, and you still get to root for your original play. Cashouts are another way books make $ in the long run off bettors. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Broncofan said: Why don't you just take Hall U3.5 catches as a hedge? Like, bet $110 to win $100. Worst-case, you lose the $400 but win $100. Best-case, you win $290. Either way, you win. I prefer hedge bets and you still are rooting for a W, than giving up value on the cash-out. Really, they should be offering you at least $200, if not $220, for the implied value you've accrued. That cashout value lost adds up in the long run. It's your call, but from a value perspective, with hedging you get full value for your play, and you still get to root for your original play. Cashouts are another way books make $ in the long run off bettors. thank you idk what I was thinking I did that last night too. I almost double dipped I had Jameson Williams, Dotson, And JSN for $25 to get 50 yarfs receiving it paid out $912. when JSN got to 41 I put $200 on his under 56.6. Midway threw for that's $20 away from maxing out so I just cash it put and watch rest of game sweating the $912 almost double dipped lol. Edited November 24, 2023 by thebestever6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 With Allen Lazard inactive, Xavier Gipson is +400 to +500, but Jason Brownlee is the other guy - he was +1900 on DK, but he's not +1000 there - but I'll take Jason Brownlee +1500 FD / +17000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U now. BOL! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) A few notable weekend injury notes: -JAX CB Tyson Campbell is unlikely to go. This not only gives additional confidence to my HOU ML pick, but it furthers my confidence in backing Tank Dell. The ripple effect is that Nico Collins is pretty playable too. -CIN D will get DE Sam Hubbard back, but loses CB Cameron Taylor-Britt (and no Tee Higgins, either). I'll add the PIT ML -120 pick now (kills me as I had CIN as my SB pick in FD free-play-with-10W's promo). Moreover, Hubbard's return makes the CIN run D play up a LOT more - and that means more pass work for Diontae Johnson O54.5 rec yds 2U DK, and I'm certainly open to alt lines when they come out. PIT ML & Diontae Johnson O54.5 rec yds (+ alt lines) now added to the SUN card, updated on page 376, linked below. BOL! Edited November 24, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 24, 2023 Share Posted November 24, 2023 (edited) 16 hours ago, Broncofan said: WEEK 12 BLACK FRIDAY To keep things interesting on both sides of the ball for Black Friday, and after much deliberation I've added Raheem Mostert O62.5 rush yds 2U, 80+ rush yds +210 1U & 98+ rush yds +500 0.5U DK (weird alt lines again) - NYJ's run D is their Achilles, and with no Achane playing, I'm ok taking the shot. It will be a nice foil to NYJ's Breece Hall O24.5 rec yds (plus alt lines) that I took earlier this week (and posted on page 376, with Ruckert TD props). On the flip side for TD's I'll go back to the well with MIA's 3rd WR option and Cedrick Wilson at +700 FD / +7000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U, to pair up with NYJ's Jeremy Ruckert (at a whopping +2000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U that I took earlier this week). So that's 8U in all for Black Friday, definitely enough for a game that could be really ugly given NYJ's pass D, and Tim Boyle at QB for the Jets. BOL! 5 hours ago, Broncofan said: With Allen Lazard inactive, Xavier Gipson is +400 to +500, but Jason Brownlee is the other guy - he was +1900 on DK, but he's not +1000 there - but I'll take Jason Brownlee +1500 FD / +17000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U now. BOL! WEEK 12 BLACK FRIDAY RECAP The one bad call was Cedric Wilson - he's really seen his snap share go down. Just avoid unless there's an injury. The other 2 TD props had a lot of snaps and a lot of RZ work, just that's how bad Tim Boyle and the Jets are. And that has to be the worst beat in a while - 7 catches for 24 yards, and so many times a better placed ball lets Hall try and beat his guy, not to mention they barely looked his way for 2.5 quarters (again), even though he is the only weapon they have besides Garrett Wilson. So frustrating. But Raheem Mostert hits his main & alt line late, so I'll take the -1.4U day, and -1.6U week so far. Looking to bounce back strong on Sunday to get Week 12 going in the right direction! WEEK 12 to BLACK FRIDAY ATS/ML: 22-26-2, -2.8U (WK 12 TNF - 1-1, even) PLAYER PROPS: 96-88, +101.4U (WK 12 Black Friday: 4-5, -4.4U) LONGSHOT TD: 21-164 - -25.5U (WK 12 TNF: 2-8, +2.8U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700; Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700) TOTAL - +73.1U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12 Black Friday - -1.6U; 763U stake so far) Edited November 24, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 @Broncofan just wanted to let you know Cager is +3700 to score on fanduel. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 (edited) More injury news gives me 2 Sunday TD props, and there's 1 for MNF I'm taking assuming Justin Jefferson isn't playing: NEW ADDED FRI PM - Tommy Tremble +600 / +9000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD @ TEN - with Hayden Hurst out, he becomes the main target. TEN's TE D has always been good, but with no Kevin Byard, I'm willing to lay a half-stake play. NEW ADDED FRI PM - Isaiah Hodgins +1100 / +13000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U DK vs. NE - with Darius Slayton out, it's not clear who will take his snaps / targets, between Hodgins & Sterling Shepard (Hyatt and Wandale are the other 2 in 11 formation). The thing is, Hodgins is the better RZ target, and someone the team has leaned on when injuries hit. He's literally +600 or lower everywhere else, so this is great value IMO. For MNF, my TD play: NEW ADDED FRI PM - Brandon Powell +500 / +7000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U FD - he's clearly in their 11 formation in the RZ, and gets intermediate shots as well. Happy to take the half-stake play with the usage he's had since JJ has been out. SUN card updated.....slowly filling up lol. Edited November 25, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, thebestever6 said: @Broncofan just wanted to let you know Cager is +3700 to score on fanduel. I think you are on the wrong column, for first TD scorer - he's +1000 anytime lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 34 minutes ago, Broncofan said: I think you are on the wrong column, for first TD scorer - he's +1000 anytime lol. oh fudge lmao Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thebestever6 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 Sorry long day Breece hall won me 24 units did that parlay and his catches up to 8 lol. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JaguarCrazy2832 Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 On 11/22/2023 at 1:54 PM, JaguarCrazy2832 said: Lions-Cowboys-49ers ML seems so chalky and public I hate myself for trusting Goff Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Broncofan Posted November 25, 2023 Share Posted November 25, 2023 (edited) OK DK appears to be back to 1 set of alt lines (Boo!), so it's back to more normal targets. Sadly, the X+ alt lines aren't as juicy (not surprised they took the 2nd set away), so I'm only on 1 alt line for Swift, otherwise the rest are posted on the main card on page 376 (linked below). One more injury-related TD addition - NEW ADDED SAT AM Greg Dortch +550 / +7000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1u vs. LAR - with Michael Wilson out and Hollywood Brown iffy, have to take the shot, as he's going to be a top 2 WR target with Rondale Moore at worst, and may be top. Even if Hollywood plays, he's at worst the 3rd WR but really gets a ton of volume when he's on the field so have to take the shot, but only-half-stake given Brown may play (and McBride dominates targets first). BOL! Edited November 25, 2023 by Broncofan Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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