Weekly Bets Thread

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

He is hurt and looks like he is playing with one arm. I havent watched the jags game, but he looked pretty bad the week before. 

+600 is probably worth a shot but I dont think he gets home. 

Who is DPOY this year? Seems like there really aren't a lot of candidates. Will probably be parsons by default. Shame someone like Fred Warner will never get it because he doesn't play DE. 

Yeah, that's a big problem for sure.   It's just that Garrett also gets to face 3 bottom 8 sacks-allowed team (NYJ 30th, CHI 26th, HOU 25th) & a bottom-half team (HOU, 19th) without their weapons.   And CLE is fighting for playoff seeding, too.   So they're not letting off the gas.     For that type of 4-game matchup, he's got everyone else covered by a wide margin.

Edited December 12, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

29 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah those are all strong plays - but it's always about the #'s posted, too.   Hubbard & London being in the 40's made it such an easy call.   

Absolutely. Just naming some + matchups with some great talent. Laporta and Hock both face the two worst teams in the league at covering TEs. niners offense could score 40 points this weekend, even if ARI is off the bye and is at home. Puka against washington seems like stealing. 

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, N4L said:

Absolutely. Just naming some + matchups with some great talent. Laporta and Hock both face the two worst teams in the league at covering TEs. niners offense could score 40 points this weekend, even if ARI is off the bye and is at home. Puka against washington seems like stealing. 

I"m really hoping that the backup QB situation with MIN keeps Hock low, as does DEN's resurgent D and Laporta's low #'s against CHI.   Puka & Kupp's lines might be massive, though, which always makes me leery (more potential that injury or game script affects it).  

Honestly, you could have played Kittle/Deebo/Aiyuk all alt lines the last 4 weeks and I think you would have gone 10-2 and had alt lines hit on all 8-9 of the 10 lol.    I will say Budda Baker has been awesome vs. TE, they're only giving up < 40 yards per game, so it seems like going after Deebo / Aiyuk is the way to go this week (and pray SF doesn't run for 180+ and lets them let off the gas in the pass game).

[SmittyBacall]

3 hours ago, N4L said:

There is a ton of sh!t I like this weekend

Laporta, deebo kittle aiyuk cmc, hockenson (assuming Nick Mullens is QB1), pittman, both lions RBs, Puka, DK, lockett, jsn (assuming Geno is back)

What’s you take on Pittman? Line opened at 75.5, which feels steep.

[SaveOurSonics]

Ekeler O46.5 Rushing tomorrow is really enticing. He had 51 on only 10 carries last week and I have to believe he'll see more work with Stick at QB. The Raiders have been prone to big games at RB (just gave up 66 yards on 10 carries to Alexander Mattison) and 46.5 is a small number. 

I actually also love his Receiving line of 25.5. He hit 49 last week & was targeted 4 times in one half of play by Stick last week. 

I also love Keenan Allen plays this week. He put up 6 catches on 10 targets for 68 yards in one half of play with Stick. In other words, he was heavily targeted. I'd expect Stick to lean on him and will almost definitely be hitting his suppressed line on yards & catches. 

 

EDIT: Not sure what Josh Jacobs rushing line is right now, but I'd like to hit the Over if it isn't too high. Should be a really good spot for him. 

Edited December 13, 2023 by SaveOurSonics

[SaveOurSonics]

Joe Mixon coming off of 2 straight really good games against a really good Vikings run defense is a prime spot for a Rushing Under. I imagine it'll be in the mid-60's and one I'll likely be eyeing to play. That being said, I'd also assume a bounce back game for Chase, which could present a good Over opportunity coming off a really bad game. 

[Broncofan]

12 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Ekeler O46.5 Rushing tomorrow is really enticing. He had 51 on only 10 carries last week and I have to believe he'll see more work with Stick at QB. The Raiders have been prone to big games at RB (just gave up 66 yards on 10 carries to Alexander Mattison) and 46.5 is a small number. 

I actually also love his Receiving line of 25.5. He hit 49 last week & was targeted 4 times in one half of play by Stick last week. 

I also love Keenan Allen plays this week. He put up 6 catches on 10 targets for 68 yards in one half of play with Stick. In other words, he was heavily targeted. I'd expect Stick to lean on him and will almost definitely be hitting his suppressed line on yards & catches. 

 

EDIT: Not sure what Josh Jacobs rushing line is right now, but I'd like to hit the Over if it isn't too high. Should be a really good spot for him. 

Jacobs hurt his knee and didn’t return.  He hasn’t practiced the last 2 days.   He’s tough but that’s pretty worrisome.   I doubt we’ll see a line posted until tomorrow evening at earliest.   
 

The reason why Ekeler prop is so low is the Chargers confirmed they’ll use all 3 RB and go with the hot hand.   It’s such a mess.   I have zero faith in anyone but Keenan Allen (I don’t even trust Parham yardage even though +700 or better is an auto-bet for TD).   

Davante Adams 2nd alt lines posted and O65.5 rec yds (already taken) & 87+ rec yds +210 1U & 111+ rec yds +500 0.5U seems decent.  
 

I’ll dive in to the LAC pass D vs. TE and go with Michael Mayer O19.5 rec tds 2U FD, 40+ rec yds +320 DK 1U / 60+ rec yds +900 DK 0.5U  DK as well   

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

A few early SAT props are out and one that stands out - TJ Hockenson O51.5 rec yds 2U, 71+ rec yds +200 1U & 91+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK -  Top target now with JJ likely out  and bottom 3 TE pass D.  
 

Nick Mullens loved to use Kittle in SF I think we see the same here.  No alt lines but I’m definitely going with the standard 3.5U play.  

Edited December 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

14 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Joe Mixon coming off of 2 straight really good games against a really good Vikings run defense is a prime spot for a Rushing Under. I imagine it'll be in the mid-60's and one I'll likely be eyeing to play. That being said, I'd also assume a bounce back game for Chase, which could present a good Over opportunity coming off a really bad game. 

Mixon at 56.5.   In the avoid area imo. 
 

Ja’Marr Chase O63.5 rec yds 2U DK, 85+ rec yds +200 1U, 106+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. MIN - I agree this is a good spot.   MIN is great on D at creating pressure, and limiting the run, and confusing QB's - but one area they struggle mightily is vs elite WR's who get volume.    LAC had Keenan Allen & Mike Williams go nuts.   DJ Moore went for 110+ yards with Josh Fields (50+ with Tyler Bagent, but that's Bagent's 1st game).   Devonta Smith went for 129 (AJ Brown got called for that infamous iffy OPI to miss getting 90+, too).  Chris Olave went for 90+ on them.     Don't get me wrong, I love the MIN D, but #1 WR's are the weakness.  So yeah, taking now.

Edited December 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

4 hours ago, SmittyBacall said:

What’s you take on Pittman? Line opened at 75.5, which feels steep.

My take is that stiechen has realized he is their best offensive player and is essentially treating him like he is AJB. 

75.5 is high, but look at what he's done since about halftime of the Tampa game. He's been on an absolute tear. 

Tampa was the game where downs had 13 targets but like 3 receptions. After that it's been the pittman show 

[SmittyBacall]

10 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

Joe Mixon coming off of 2 straight really good games against a really good Vikings run defense is a prime spot for a Rushing Under. I imagine it'll be in the mid-60's and one I'll likely be eyeing to play. That being said, I'd also assume a bounce back game for Chase, which could present a good Over opportunity coming off a really bad game. 

On one hand, Chase Brown’s comeback will continue to take away from Mixon. But on the other, Mixon, the running game, and the OL have looked really good the past two weeks. The offense has changed under Browning, with much more plays coming from under center (which has been favouring the running game). Brown taking carries has also kept Mixon fresher. 

I’m staying away.

[SaveOurSonics]

12 hours ago, Broncofan said:

The reason why Ekeler prop is so low is the Chargers confirmed they’ll use all 3 RB and go with the hot hand.   It’s such a mess.

That's fine, I'll buy that. Ekeler is by far the most talented RB on the roster & his health seems to be ramping up just from watching games. 46.5 is about as low a number you'll find for a very talented RB against a suspect run defense. 

[Broncofan]

OK we've got more props for Sat's slate, so let's organize this....

WEEK 15 SAT SLATE

ATS/ML

NEW FRI AM - CHANGE - PIT @ IND O42 TheScore (42.5 DK) - with new TJ Watt & Alex Highsmith are both back, and no Jonathan Taylor, my IND -2.5 doesn't feel as good.  One thing I do know - both the PIT & IND D are more leaky than advertised.   And playing indoors, IIRC IND has gone over each time.   Easier to take this play.

I'm tempted to take MIN-CIN O40.5, but with both backup QB's playing and the 3-0 MIN-LV game, I actually think the line will keep dropping, so I'm waiting.     I have literally zero feel for DEN-DET at DET -4 right now.   So that's just 1U for Sat's slate so far.

 

PLAYER PROPS

 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Nick Mullens O1.5 pass TD +145 1U, O2.5 pass TD's +550 0.5U FD @ CIN - just discovered that FD does alt lines for pass TD's, so have to take a shot on a MIN O that can't run effectively, but faces a very leaky CIN D.    Worth the 1.5U play to try and win 4.2U.  Consider this a test balloon after the initial success with TNF.

Ja'marr Chase O63.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 64.5), 85+ rec yds +210 1U, 106+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. MIN - MIN is great on D at creating pressure, and limiting the run, and confusing QB's - but one area they struggle mightily is vs elite WR's who get volume.    LAC had Keenan Allen & Mike Williams go nuts.   DJ Moore went for 110+ yards with Josh Fields (50+ with Tyler Bagent, but that's Bagent's 1st game).   Devonta Smith went for 129 (AJ Brown got called for that infamous iffy OPI to miss getting 90+, too).  Chris Olave went for 90+ on them.     Don't get me wrong, I love the MIN D, but #1 WR's are the weakness.   Unless Jake Browning melts vs. the MIN blitz scheme (something that Adrian O'Connell, Tyler Bagent, Taylor Heinecke, Bryce Young & Jordan Love all went through), then Chase should get his.

TJ Hockenson O51.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 52.5), 71+ rec yds +200 1U & 91+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK -  Even with JJ back, he's the other guy who soaks up targets, and now faces CIN's bottom 3 TE pass D.   We can also add that new starting QB Nick Mullens absolutely peppered his TE's in his SF days, so I can't believe things will change here.   One of my top 3 confidence plays this weekend.

Michael Pittman O7.5 catches +130 TheScore 2U (FRI PM - now  +120; I'm sure B365 / US FD can do better) - yes, Joey Porter will be on him, and he's an upgrade in coverage.    But HC  moves Pittman around so he's basically uncoverable short.   The O76.5 is a little high if they send a safety high, and so I'm actually more comfortable with his target volume (12+ targets a game) to translate to 8+ catches.     

Diontae Johnson O44.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - unchanged), 62+ rec yds +210 1U, 81+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ IND - 2 really noteworthy stats, and 1 counter-observation.    The first reason why this can fail - Mitch Trubisky plain sucks.   It's just that simple.   His horrific deep ball and bad accuracy are why it's tough for me to back any PIT receiving props, unless it's high-volume, or short-area.  And this week, with all-world slot CB Kenny Moore, you want no part of PIT slot WR's.   But here's the thing about Diontae - he plays less than 10 percent of his snaps in the slot (so no Moore).   And most importantly, he commands over 30% of the targets when Trubisky starts, and overall he still commands 40% of the air yards.   IND's run D is decent, and their slot D is elite - but their boundary CB's are their weak spot.   They doubled Ja'marr Chase for any deep shots, but gave up 78 yards to Tee Higgins (only 3 targets, so beware on that count).   Getting chunk plays deep is not Diontae's game, so at this low number, I'm willing to smash this 1 more time, and despair at having to depend on Mitch Trubisky (but the value is too good to pass up).

Jahmyr Gibbs O43.5 rush yds (FRI PM - now 50.5 lol), 58+ rush yds +200 1U, 75+ rush yds +500 0.5U, 90+ rush yds +800 0.5U DK vs. DEN - yes, I'm going with the 3-alt line, 4U play here.   DEN's rush D is absolutely their weak spot.   DET's OL & run game are absolutely their strength.   Why am I taking this so aggressively?   Well, in the past 3 games, Gibbs' snap share has risen to where he’s getting 60-70+ percent snaps and Monty gets 40-50% (both on the field sometimes).   He’s getting as many or more carries yet his total is in low-mid 40’s and Monty in the low 60’s.   Pretty easy to hammer this.  

Sam Laporta O45.5 rec yds (FRI PM - now 47.5), 63+ rec yds +210 1U, 84+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. DEN - pretty similar reasoning to Hockenson.   Frankly, OC Ben Johnson would be nuts if he didn't run it 35x this week...but throw it to Laporta 7-8x (and get Amon-Ra St. Brown his 10+ targets, too).   He's their #2 downfield option, in an area we struggle mightily on.  

Jerry Jeudy O44.5 rec yds 2U (FRI PM - now 45.5), 63+ rec yds +210, 83 rec yds + 500 0.5U DK @ DET - yeah, I know.   Jeudy absolutely burned us last week.   Still, he's getting open, and he's still the co-leader in targets with Sutton, and this week, the matchup is a massive pass funnel if the DET run D (which is #7 by DVOA) makes us throw more.    So at that number, gotta take the shot.   If Jeudy fails here, it's probably his last go (OK we'll see about LAC again, but nope against NE/CIN).

So that's 25U in 8 player props, and Jaylen Warren is one I really want to see (maybe Will Mallory rec yds too lol).. 

 

LONGSHOT TD

 

NEW ADDED SAT AM - Tanner Hudson +700 / +10000 2+ FD <waiting to see if it will rise on Sat noon ET> 0.4U / 0.1U FD @ CIN -  he's emerging as the main go-to guy, but still splits enough time to make the yardage props tough to back.  I'm OK though to take a stab at these #'s on the TD lines.   Willing to wait to see if there's a last-hour odds rise like we saw with Joshua Palmer on TNF.

Brandon Powell +1000 FD (+950 DK) / +12000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ CIN - even if Justin Jefferson plays, Powell still sees 25-30 percent of the snaps, but there's a strong chance Jefferson doesn't play - in which case, these odds should be more like +300 to +400.    For now, can only take the half-stake play until we hear more, but if it sounds ominous for JJ, consider doubling to 0.8U / 0.2U.

NEW ADDED THU PM - CJ Ham +2600 FD / +25000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ CIN - he’s the 3rd down pass catcher and GL he’s in there as the FB.    With Nick Mullens a QB sneak less likely.  And likely no Mattison Ty Chandler isn’t a short yardage guy.   Sneaky once-a-season potential to score. 

 

Will Mallory +1300  FD (+800 DK) / +11000 DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. PIT - the main reason this isn't a full-stake play is that 4 TE's split time.   But Mallory is always a target when he's out there the last 2 games.   It's wild that he's considered the least likely TE when he's getting the most targets now.   Still, a 4-way split means I can only take a half-stake play for now.

 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Lucas Krull +1000 FD / ??? 2+ TD (not offered on DK/Bodog yet) 0.4U / 0.1U @ DET - he's the new PS TE who gets work, at least until Greg Dulcich returns.   Dulcich got put on the 21-day practice window, but it doesn't sound like he's playing this weekend.   Gotta take a shot on the leaky DET D, with the other guy who takes pass-catching reps from Adam Trautman. 

NEW ADDED FRI AM - Brock Wright +1300 FD / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DEN - have to take a shot on the leaky DEN TE D, with the guy who plays in 12 formation which they'll use a lot in the RZ.  

 

So that's 3U for TD's with 6 players.   I've literally already got 29U on the 3-game slate, but the spots are so good for the posted numbers, I have to trust my evals.   Let's keep up the TNF momentum for this weekend!

 

WEEK 15 TO TNF

ATS/ML: 32-32-1, +2.3U (WK 15 TNF - 1-0, +1U)

PLAYER PROPS: 121-112, +131.6U (WK 15 SNF - 3-0, +17.3U)

LONGSHOT TD: 28-209 - +12.0U  (WK 14 TNF - 0-20, -15.7U; Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400)

TOTAL - +145.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 TNF - +29.4U; 1029U stake so far)

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On 12/12/2023 at 1:59 AM, Broncofan said:

Well, I'm surprised lines are up, but there's 1 easy player prop I'll take right now, and 2 TD plays I have to believe are going to be tough to beat:

 

WEEK 15 TNF

ATS/ML 

LV -3 - Chargers are truly horrific without Justin Herbert.   And they're likely not getting help anytime soon from their skill guys (doubt Josh Palmer is even close by the interviews).    The D is truly bad, Russell Wilson is just not accurate (and Jeudy dropped 1 ball for 50+ yards and a TD without getting the 2nd foot inbounds).   Worse, Brandon Staley has clear signs he's losing the locker.    Grabbing it now before it gets past -3.

 

PLAYER PROPS

Davante Adams O65.5 rec yds 2U DK (WED PM - now 68.5), 87+ rec yds +210 1U, 111+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. LAC - with Josh Jacobs hurting on a short week, it's a pass week for Davante.  And we have the security in knowing the new coaching staff and Aiden O'Connell absolutely peppper Adams.   With this LAC secondary, Adams still went for 8-75 even with O'Connell making his first ever start.  MIN absolutely stifled them, but the LAC coverage is nowhere near as good.   So I have to take this line, in other weeks it would be 15+ yards higher (hopefully I don't curse Adams with the same line I used on Justin Jefferson last week lol).

NEW ADDED WED AM - Michael Mayer O19.5 rec yds, 40+ rec yds +300 1U & 60+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK vs. LAC - LAC's TE coverage is just abysmal, and Mayer's work keeps increasing.   This definitely calls for a 

Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 82+ rec yds +210 1U, 105+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LV - yes, Eason Stick is the QB.   Yes, LAC is a mess.   But I also think we'll see LAC have to play catch up and have to air it out.   Allen's shown he can absolutely dominate vs. LV's secondary, I trust the skill & volume.   If Herbert was playing, we'd see a line in the mid-high 80's - like Ja'marr Chase vs. JAX, this is just too far of an overreaction to the MIN game (Josh Dobbs was brutal, Nick Mullens pieced them up...Nick Mullens ppl) and to Stick.

So that's 10.5U on 3 player props.

 

LONGSHOT TD

Donald Parham +850 / +12000 2+ DK 0.8U / 0.2U @ LV - DK comes up even wider than TheScore - I split the difference by going 0.4U / 0.1U both ways, but if you haven't taken it, DK offers the best odds obv.   FD could offer better single TD odds, but if it's this wide, there's no chance their 2-TD wil be offered, so you can lock in DK for 2+ pretty safely now.

Aidan O'Connell +1200 TheScore (+900 Bodog) / ??? 2+  0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - I would pass on this if Josh Jacobs was healthy - but he's not.   O'Connell is not a scrambler, but he's scored once on a QB sneak, so if the ball gets to the 1 and they have to consider Zamir White, I wouldn't rule out a QB score.  At these odds, I have to play it with the chance Jacobs misses the game, and a DPI like situation that gets the ball close. 

NEW ADDED WED PM Michael Mayer +600 / +10000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs. LAC - like I said before, LAC's TE D is brutal, so this is the spot to attack.   Because it's AOC as QB, have to only sprinkle a half-unit.

NEW ADDED WED PM Eason Stick +800 Bodog (+600 range other sites) / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - much like Jake Browning, Stick is actually very mobile.  We've seen LAC sneak it a ton at the 1, so at this number, worth a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED WED PM Isaiah Spiller +1500 FD (+600 to +800 elsewhere) / +10000 2+ Bodog (+8000 everywhere else) 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - with a lost season now upon LAC, we've already seen Spiller being added into the mix.   We know Joshua Kelley isn't the answer, so the Chargers using more Spiller, esp near the GL, wouldn't be crazy.   At +1500, it's an auto-play, esp when other sites have him at +600 to +800

 

So this is 15U on TNF's slate, which is pretty scary - but it's basically banking on the 2 best players in the game, where the volume gets concentrated and such a low # on Mayer.    It seems wild to 

I updated the TNF card - Keenan Allen, Michael Mayer yardage props & 3 more longshot TD plays above.  
 

 

Edited December 13, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

7 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Keenan Allen O62.5 rec yds 2U, 82+ rec yds +210 1U, 105+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LV - yes, Eason Stick is the QB.   Yes, LAC is a mess.   But I also think we'll see LAC have to play catch up and have to air it out.   Allen's shown he can absolutely dominate vs. LV's secondary, I trust the skill & volume.   If Herbert was playing, we'd see a line in the mid-high 80's - like Ja'marr Chase vs. JAX, this is just too far of an overreaction to the MIN game (Josh Dobbs was brutal, Nick Mullens pieced them up...Nick Mullens ppl) and to Stick.

Ya I'll be hammering this. Keenan put up more yards than this last week in one half with Stick. What's his Receptions prop at? I'm hoping it's 5.5 or 6.5, I'd likely hit either one.