Weekly Bets Thread

[thebestever6]

On 12/13/2023 at 2:43 PM, SaveOurSonics said:

Normally in this situation I'd look to Tease the U41 here, but in this case, with two bad defenses & playmakers on the offensive side of the ball, I have an itch to Tease the O27

Excellent call

[Broncofan]

OK my Sunday card's also come into shape, so let's dive in....

 

WEEK 15 SUN / MON SLATE

 

ATS/ML

EARLY

NYG +6 @ NO - this is just too wide.   NYG has better coaching right now on both sides of the ball, and Derek Carr wilts under pressure - which is exactly what DC Wink Martindale is best at drawing up.  No, I'm not a Tommy Devito fan - this is as much about me fading the NO team, as their O is absymsal with OC Pete Carmichael at the helm, and the D is suddenly very vulnerable to both the run & the pass (with CB Marshawn Lattimore out).     As the spread is 6, I'm ok with going ATS instead of the ML

CHI +130 ML @ CLE - 4 weeks ago, this would have been ludicrous to suggest.   But there are 3 reasons why this improbable outcome seems viable.   First, the CLE OL is now decimated, having lost both their top 3 T's and now likely their C Pocic.   The CHI D is both stout in the run and covers the deep plays really well, so it negates a lot of what Joe Flacco succeeds in (and can get pressure on the statue-like vet QB with the OL issues as well).     Next, the CLE D has lost key guys on the DL & secondary.   So they're not as good at generating pressure (esp with Myles Garrett playing with a hurt wing - still think he'll get a sack or 2 vs. Fields, but it's not the same sack attack CLE had going earlier this season).  Finally, the CLE run D has become more vulnerable again, which makes it a lot easier for Justin Fields to operate the CHI O.   If Denzel Ward doesn't play again this week, I absolutely believe CHI's O can thrive (and I'd add DJ Moore props there as well).    

TAM - GB O42.5 - I don't know how this line gets set this low when you look at both teams' D - the only reason I don't have more GB props is because they're not out yet.  And yes, I'll take Mike Evans props too.  I see a 27-24 type game....not a 42.5 total.  


SNF

BAL -3 @ JAX -120 (TheScore) - the reality is that the JAX pass D is leaking oil badly.   They've been a bottom 8 pass D the last 6 weeks by DVOA, and it's only getting worse this week IMO.    While it helps to have a healthier Trevor Lawrence this week, I'm good with giving the 3-pts away and take the more talented, and better-coached team.   Nothing against JAX, they're a top 10 team and deserve to be playing in January, but right now BAL is a top 3-4 team at worst.   In a TO-neutral game, this is BAL by 6+.   

 

MNF

PHI -3 @ SEA - this is a massive overreaction to the DAL game IMO.   Yes, the PHI pass D is a problem.  Yes, Jalen Hurts hasn't played as well.   Here's the thing - SEA's D is not playing well, and they're getting beat on the trenches.   On the flip side, Geno Smith gunslinger mode is entertaining, but it also comes with sacks / negative plays.   While I wondered about taking the over, I'm again going with a clearly more talented team, where both teams have coaching issues, so nothing to counter this.   Obviously TO's can flip this around, but in a TO-neutral game, this is PHI by 6+ IMO.  

 

So that's 5U for ATS/ML plays.

 

 

PLAYER PROPS

EARLY
 

Mike Evans O69.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - now 67.5 - DOH), 90+ rec yds +200 1U, 120+ rec yds +600 0.5U @ GB - GB's zone D is a perfect balm for Mike Evans, who really can find the soft spot (so can Godwin, but Evans' evolution as a zone buster is what makes him so safe as a top WR1 option even as he approaches age-30).    I'm sad the days of 60-ish main line is gone (because 100+ was the 2nd alt line), but in this week's matchup, where I see fireworks, this sets up for a big day for #13.

Jayden Reed O4.5 catches +110 2U Bodog (SUN AM - now -115; B365 / US FD - consider 6-7 alt lines) vs. TAM - there's no doubt Reed is set up for massive volume with Christian Watson gone.  TAM CB Jamel Dean is likely back, which means they'll have better boundary coverage, but their slot coverage is still a massive liability.  Here's the thing though - Reed's ADOT has cratered.   So he's a volume but needs a lot of YAC to break big chunk plays.   Given that, I'm totally good with the catch prop, and if. you have B365/US FD, then 6-7 catches are certainly in play (8 if you must and it's crazy like +1200 lol). 

Wan'dale Robinson O31.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - same), 50+ rec yds +250 1U & 70+ rec yds +600 0.5U DK @ NO - on a similar vein to Jayden Reed, Wan'dale is the NYG go-to guy right now.   Unlike Reed, however, his yardage totals are insanely low, which offers the chance to really hit on alt line goodness.   The NO D has been leaking oil, and has been a bottom-half coverage unit since Marshawn Lattimore left (you just couldn't tell with CAR playing them lol).   Taking the target hog at such a low #, sign me up. 

NEW ADDED SUN AM D'onta Foreman O41.5 rush yds 2U FD (DK - 42.5), 60+ rush yds +220 1U DK, 80+ rush yds +600 0.5U DK - books see his 50 yds last week on 11 carries and think it's a timeshare 3-ways.  It's not, he still gets 60-70 percent of the snaps and carries.   Against CLE's decimated D, that's more than enough, the total should be at least 12-15 yards higher.  

 

 

LATE

James Cook O23.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - now 21.5 DOH), 36+ rec yds +210 1U, 51+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. DAL - on paper, this is a tough DAL pass D vs. RB's.  Here's the thing though - Joe Brady LOVES to use Cook as a pass catcher.   So if you give me a likely shootout, and a total in the low 20's, and alt lines that only need to get past 51+ yards, I'm definitely taking this one.

Curtis Samuel O40.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - now 39.5), 55+ rec yds +210 1U, 74+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ LAR - nothing new since the bye week - as long as it's this weird pass-first O that ignores Jahan Dotson almost completely, and often ignores their most talented guy, Terry Mclaurin - it's C-Samuel who benefits.   It's wild, because TBH I don't even think he's good enough to keep as a starter on good O's - but you can't deny the volume for the low target yardage totals.  

Puka Nacua O67.5 rec yds 2U, 86+ rec yds +210 1U (SUN AM - now 69.5), 109+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. WAS - I was torn between Kupp and Nacua vs. the league's worst D - but what convinced me was that Nacua's chunk play potential is where WAS really sucks hardest at.  He could hit the main line in 1 play.    NGL, the same could apply to Kupp, but we usually seem him work short-intermediate area now, so I'll go with Puka. 

Deebo Samuel O58.5 rec yds 2U, 78+ rec yds +210 1U (SUN AM - same), 100+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ ARI - there is risk that the SF run game destroys ARI, and so we don't need the pass game.  But other than that, ARI is also the easiest team to throw against, and no one gives up more wards to WR's except for the Commanders.   So you gotta fire Deebo up at this number, and take the standard alt line play.

Brandon Aiyuk O65.5 rec yds 2U (SUN AM - now 70.5), 87+ rec yds +210, 109+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ ARI - nothing new to add to Deebo's rationale, except to point out George Kittle has the toughest draw with S Budda Baker, so the 2 WR's are the easiest plays this week.

Trey McBride O49.5 rec yds 2U, 65+ rec yds 2U +210 1U (SUN AM - same), 85+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. SF - on paper, this looks like an avoid.  But the 49ers pass D is more vulnerable having lost their all world S Hufanga, and teams that attack the TE D downfield actually succeed - SEA has had 50+ & 60+ yard days, TAM had 50+ yards, and MIN had TJ Hockenson go 8-110 on them.  And yes, Zach Ertz went 6-59 against them, and Ertz has no YAC ability.   Teams that don't feature the TE prominently, the SF D definitely shuts down (and with Hufanga, it was a great TE cover unit with the LB's).    

 

SNF

Odell Beckham Jr. O37.5 rec yds 2U, 53+ rec yds +210 1U & 71+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ JAX - the weather forecast gives me some pause here, but with Zay Flowers totals in the low-50's, I'd much rather attack OBJ here, with his slant usage and YAC ability on a very leaky JAX pass D.  

Travis Etienne O53.5 rush yds 2U, 69+ rush yds +210 1U & 87+ rush yds +500 0.5u DK vs. BAL - fun fact, BAL has gone from being a top 5 run D in the first 6 games of the year, to being a middle-pack D by DVOA in the last 6.   Given that, we know with Trevor Lawrence still healing from his HAS, that the Jags will try to lean on the run.    These totals reflect the old BAL D (and it was so good the season numbers look good).  So sign me up for some #1 getting the rock on Sunday night.   Especially with the weather forecast (rain and winds 20-25 MPH).   

NEW ADDED SUN AM - Keaton Mitchell O9.5 rec yds 2U FD (DK - 10.5), 25+ rec yds +240 & 50+ rec yds +1200 (40+ is +850) DK @ JAX - JAX's run D is great, but their pass coverage vs. RB's is awful, giving up just under 50 yards a game (3rd highest in the league).  I want the highest alt line as my last one, but instead of going 3 alt lines, I'm going go 25-50 (hopefully I don't regret that lol).

 

MNF

DK Metcalf O63.5 rec yds 2U, 84+ rec yds +210 1U, 105+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. PHI - with Geno Smith now back in practice and almost certainly playing, I can take this spot.   Not only is PHI's pass D leaky, but Darius Slay can't keep up with DK.  We saw it 3 years ago, and if anything, DK is an even bigger monster.   

Tyler Lockett O51.5 rec yds 2U, 71+ rec yds +210 1U, 91+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK vs. PHI - NGL, I'm pretty tempted to just take Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and call it a day, knowing 2/3 and maybe all 3 hit into alt lines in all likelihood.  But for now, I'll stick with the guy who finds his way vs. both zone & man, and will get a TON of slot work - and where PHI still struggles mightily.

Devonta Smith O59.5 rec yds 2U, 79+ rec yds +210 1U, 101+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ SEA - on the flip side, even though Dallas Goedert is back, I expect the increased usage for Devonta to continue, especially as AJ Brown will continue to draw the D's attention.

 

Jayden Reed is the only GB receiver with props, so I may add a 2nd, depending on how Sunday goes.  I'm definitely interested in 1-2 more MNF props, but I think those 3 are going to move up quickly if I don't lock in now.  So that's 47.5U so far on 14 player props for Sunday so far.


LONGSHOT TD

EARLY

Harrison Bryant +900 DK (+850 FD - will wait to until noon ET) / +20000 2+ DK (taken) 0.4U / 0.1U vs. CHI - I won't complain about these #'s.   Because it's FD, I'll wait until after noon ET to lock it in, 2-TD won't change so it's locked in.

Noah Gray +850 FD (+800 DK - will wait to noon ET with FD) / +13000 2+ DK (taken) 0.4U / 0.1U @ NE - don't think I need to explain this one, you keep giving me these type of #'s, I'll take the half-stake play.  As it's FD and it's this high, I will wait until noon ET to lock it in (if it decreases to +800 then I'll take it then, but if it stays the same, very likely to go up as we get closer to game time after noon ET on Sunday). 2-TD won't change, so that's locked in.

Richie James +1600 FD / +20000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ NE - he only had 12 snaps last week, but got 2 targets - and more importantly, had 1 RZ target and about 3-4 RZ snaps.  I think that will increase as KC looks to solve their WR (other than Rashee Rice) woes.   Because the number is already that high, locking it now (as it may decrease quickly if any word of increased usage over Skyy Moore or Kadarius Toney leaks out). 

Isaiah Hodgins +850 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U @ NO - I'm not chasing last week's TD - he was actually my next one on my list to take (DOH) - it confirms what I've suspected - he's the big body RZ guy.  They use other guys between the 20's now, but his body control, 50-50 ability and size are why they're using him like a RZ specialist.   Bodog's odds won't change, so locking this in now (FD is +800, so if you don't have Bodog, then wait on FD, as it could also rise in the last hour b4 gametime Sunday).

Tyler Conklin +550 Bodog (WAITING ON FD/DK - not out yet FRI PM) / +10000 2+ Bodog (taken) & Jeremy Ruckert +1800 Bodog (taken) / ??? 2+ (WAITING ON DK - +12500 2+ Bodog) -  With the NYJ O finally deciding to take risks and throw downfield, it makes the TE TD play very viable - and man, look at those Ruckert Bodog odds.   As a contrast, on TheScore, Conklin is +500/+5000 2+ & Ruckert is +750 / +8000 2+ (LOL).    I'll lock in the Conklin ATTD once I see FD & DK & 2-TD likely with DK if the odds are even +1000 there for ATTD, should beat Bodog's 2+ TD props (never goes higher than 125-1).

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Deven Thompkins +800 / +11000 2+ DK vs. GB 0.4U / 0.1U - Chris Godwin is the dreaded game-time decision (GTD), but either way Thompkins gets touches as a speed guy and still sees occasional work as the WR3, and obv his prospects soar as their best slot guy after Godwin  so I'm good with the odds here with a half-stake play.

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Juwan Johnson +500 TheScore / +5500 2+ FD vs. NYG 0.4U / 0.1U vs. NYG -  so many ppl out have to take the half-stake play.  

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Kevin Harris +2000 / +25000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. KC** - Zeke GL backup.    Literally no one else on roster except a pass catcher who plays ST.   

NEW ADDED SUN NOON - Roschon Johnson +900 / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs CLE - the real backup and pass catcher RB in CHI but RB3 odds.

LATE

Cole Turner +1300 / +16000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ LAR - the LAR TE D is really vulnerable (so is WAS, but books have caught on - Davis Allen is +250 lol).  And WAS is in rebuild mode, so I do believe that we will see more Turner on the field.   More importantly, Logan Thomas has really become less effective, which again leads to more Turner.  I was undecided on taking this, but then I see FD already dropped Turner & Bates to +650 EACH.    So IMO they know a change may be coming.  

Ty Johnson +1100 Bodog (+1000 DK) / +15000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U vs. DAL - this is a case where some books have caught on that Johnson is starting to take over from Latavius Murry as the backup.   His snaps and touches are increasing, and he's been used in the RZ.  Yet he's getting priced like 3rd RB.   FD & Bodog have already caught on - he's +575 & +700 there.   Have to take a half-stake stab and be a game early rather than a game late. 

 

SNF

Nelson Agholor +700 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U @ JAX (waiting on weather / last-hour odds increase with FD) - the weather is an issue, but really, Agholor is their 3rd WR, and the one they use in the RZ as well.   With Mark Andrews out, it's a lot more spread out re: RZ targets, Agholor got 2 last week.  It's tough to take a guy with bad hands as a TD play, but the volume and odds make this an auto-play at those #'s.  Since it's SNF and also has weather concerns, definitely a play to wait on until after 7 PM ET on Sunday.

MNF

Colby Parkinson +900 / +12500 Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U - not trying to chase last week's TD - it's that PHI's TE D is so vulnerable.   Knew it was coming eventually, but couldn't trust Drew Lock (and TBF, it saved me on DK Metcalf props & alt lines).   

 

For Sunday, I want to see what will happen with Demario Douglas (+500 right now), Juwan Johnson (+500 / +5500 2+ on TheScore, +450 / +5000 2+ FD)  & Sam Howell & Michael Wilson late - Howell & Wilson are both around +300 to +325, if we can get past +400 I'll likely take the full-stake (0.8U/0.2U) play on Howell, half-stake on the others.    I'd love to see Douglas get to +600/+700 and then take a shot.   For now, that's 6.5U in Sunday TD props with 13 players.    Howell & Douglas would likely get added, but that's enough for now, especially with 59U invested on Sunday's slate (and 37U on Sat lol).   

 

Let's see if we can keep the momentum from TNF going!

 

WEEK 15 TO SAT SLATE

ATS/ML: 33-32-1, +3.3U (WK 15 SAT - 2-0, +2U)

PLAYER PROPS: 128-111, +150.9U  (WK 15 SAT - 10-2, +36.6U)

LONGSHOT TD: 28-216 - +8.0U  (WK 15 SAT - 3-9, +7.1U;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400)

TOTAL - +162.2U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 SAT - +45.7U; 1066U stake so far)

Edited December 17, 2023 by Broncofan

[N4L]

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

CHI +130 ML @ CLE - 4 weeks ago, this would have been ludicrous to suggest.   But there are 3 reasons why this improbable outcome seems viable.   First, the CLE OL is now decimated, having lost both their top 3 T's and now likely their C Pocic.   The CHI D is both stout in the run and covers the deep plays really well, so it negates a lot of what Joe Flacco succeeds in (and can get pressure on the statue-like vet QB with the OL issues as well).     Next, the CLE D has lost key guys on the DL & secondary.   So they're not as good at generating pressure (esp with Myles Garrett playing with a hurt wing - still think he'll get a sack or 2 vs. Fields, but it's not the same sack attack CLE had going earlier this season).  Finally, the CLE run D has become more vulnerable again, which makes it a lot easier for Justin Fields to operate the CHI O.   If Denzel Ward doesn't play again this week, I absolutely believe CHI's O can thrive (and I'd add DJ Moore props there as well).    

SNF

BAL -3 @ JAX -120 (TheScore) - the reality is that the JAX pass D is leaking oil badly.   They've been a bottom 8 pass D the last 6 weeks by DVOA, and it's only getting worse this week IMO.    While it helps to have a healthier Trevor Lawrence this week, I'm good with giving the 3-pts away and take the more talented, and better-coached team.   Nothing against JAX, they're a top 10 team and deserve to be playing in January, but right now BAL is a top 3-4 team at worst.   In a TO-neutral game, this is BAL by 6+.

I absolutely LOVE these two.

I took Chi +3 and then on the ML for 50% of that risk. The bears D is really good and that team seems really hungry. Fields knows his career is on the line and is playing his best football. 

The ravens are a nightmare matchup for the Jags. The way baltimore brings pressure is going to terrorize the jags offense. I do not think they are particularly well coached on that side of the ball, seems like they have issues every week and that they are poorly orchestrated. The ravens are really good at defending the boundary on defense and the jags do not use the middle of the field very often. No kirk is big for them because he was one of the only guys they used in multiple areas of the field. 

I will add:

Minnesota +3 / ML - they should be favored. That defense is a top 5 unit right now. No one can figure out Flores, and I dont think jake browning will be the one to do so. He has basically been belichickean with his game planning. Vikings offense with Nick mullens will do enough to win the game. Nick Mullen's passing prop is 245. I think that shows the confidence vegas has with him, hock is a nightmare matchup for CIN, and they get jefferson back + the OL is top tier. I cant believe I am saying this after thinking they were frauds 2 months ago, but Minnesota is the better team. 

Over 48 SF/ARI - 49ers offense is a buzzsaw. Their defense is missing some key guys. We havent played kyler since 2021 and I expect a good game from him off the bye. They had our defense timed up really well in week 3, I think they know Wilks' scheme and how to attack it. Niners offense could score 40 by itself but I think the game will be pretty close and that both teams score over 20 quite easily. 

I also like the over in the DET/DEN game. DET's D is bad. Denver D is not good despite its recent success. I think the fact the game is in a dome helps a lot. Would love to hear your thoughts on this one @Broncofan

Additionally, Sam LaPorta is my favorite prop bet of the season. Max bet

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I absolutely LOVE these two.

I took Chi +3 and then on the ML for 50% of that risk. The bears D is really good and that team seems really hungry. Fields knows his career is on the line and is playing his best football. 

The ravens are a nightmare matchup for the Jags. The way baltimore brings pressure is going to terrorize the jags offense. I do not think they are particularly well coached on that side of the ball, seems like they have issues every week and that they are poorly orchestrated. The ravens are really good at defending the boundary on defense and the jags do not use the middle of the field very often. No kirk is big for them because he was one of the only guys they used in multiple areas of the field. 

I will add:

Minnesota +3 / ML - they should be favored. That defense is a top 5 unit right now. No one can figure out Flores, and I dont think jake browning will be the one to do so. He has basically been belichickean with his game planning. Vikings offense with Nick mullens will do enough to win the game. Nick Mullen's passing prop is 245. I think that shows the confidence vegas has with him, hock is a nightmare matchup for CIN, and they get jefferson back + the OL is top tier. I cant believe I am saying this after thinking they were frauds 2 months ago, but Minnesota is the better team. 

Over 48 SF/ARI - 49ers offense is a buzzsaw. Their defense is missing some key guys. We havent played kyler since 2021 and I expect a good game from him off the bye. They had our defense timed up really well in week 3, I think they know Wilks' scheme and how to attack it. Niners offense could score 40 by itself but I think the game will be pretty close and that both teams score over 20 quite easily. 

I also like the over in the DET/DEN game. DET's D is bad. Denver D is not good despite its recent success. I think the fact the game is in a dome helps a lot. Would love to hear your thoughts on this one @Broncofan

Additionally, Sam LaPorta is my favorite prop bet of the season. Max bet

I tend to agree on the DEN-DET over.  Literally the only thing that keeps the Broncos in the game are the TO's, and for fumbles, that's a LOT of luck that results in recovering them.   Jaquan McMillian is an emerging star, though, he's a ballhawk.    If it's a TO-neutral game, and DET sticks to running it 30-35x and throwing it Laporta 8+ targets and Sun God 10+ times, they should put up 28+ pts on us.   ESP if Frank Ragnow returns (sounds likely).   

On the flip side, there is no better matchup for our pass game than DET (OK, WAS & LAC are pretty awful lol - which is why putting up 17 with our O should be sending some warning flags).   BUT, this is a huge but - Russell Wilson is playing so poorly right now.   Sean Payton's scheming some great plays to minimize our dependence on him being good (not great, just even good).   

Frankly, if it's a TO-neutral game, DET covers -4.5 fairly easily IMO.   The thing is, it hasn't been TO-neutral for us lol.    That's the conundrum...how long does the D keep this up?

Gibbs & Laporta are definitely favorite plays for me - probably 1 & 2 (Palmer was 3).   HOPEFULLY we don't sweat as much on those 2 as we did last night on Palmer lol. 

 

PS - I think MIN is probably the right play.   I'm blinded by my allegiance to my "get your $ back if team wins 10+ games for SB bet" with CIN.   But I think this is one HUGE step up in D complexity for Jake Browning.   I think Chase will get his yards, but yes, I think MIN D can force at least 2 TO's from Browning, and if they do, pretty clear path to winning, as long as Nick Mullens can manage the game himself.  

Edited December 15, 2023 by Broncofan

[SaveOurSonics]

6 hours ago, thebestever6 said:

Excellent call

Teasing the TNF Over is now 12-3 this season. 

[SaveOurSonics]

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I took Chi +3 and then on the ML for 50% of that risk. The bears D is really good and that team seems really hungry. Fields knows his career is on the line and is playing his best football.

I'm really hesitant with Chicago because they simply haven't been good on the road this season. Cleveland can be a tough place to play & the Browns defense certainly performs better there. Granted, they are out Delpit for this one (is Denzel Ward returning?). 

1 hour ago, N4L said:

Minnesota +3 / ML - they should be favored.

I disagree. Minnesota's run defense hasn't been as good on the road & as mentioned previously, the Bengals have really clicked in this area against pretty good run defenses two weeks in a row now. Browning has looked really good & Chase offers Cincy the type of YAC threat that exposes Minnesota's blitzing tendencies. Add the passing threat that Chase Brown has become for this offense, & I think the Bengals control the tempo at home. No Mattison means the Vikings will be really reliant on Mullens on the road. 

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Gibbs & Laporta are definitely favorite plays for me

I love the LaPorta play this week, but if we're talking Gibbs Receiving, I'm not as excited about the Over. He's really lacked effectiveness & involvement the last 3 weeks in this area & he's been in mostly really soft RB receptions defenses over that stretch. Don't get me wrong, it should hit, but it's hard for me to bet against a bit of a trend. 

1 hour ago, N4L said:

I also like the over in the DET/DEN game. DET's D is bad. Denver D is not good despite its recent success. I think the fact the game is in a dome helps a lot.

Only 2 Lions home games have totaled U50 points scored this season. Those were against the Raiders (Jimmy G had 10 completions) & the Falcons. So, two really bad offenses. I agree with you that the Over should be a relatively safe play here. 

[SaveOurSonics]

3 hours ago, Broncofan said:

TAM - GB O42.5 - I don't know how this line gets set this low when you look at both teams' D - the only reason I don't have more GB props is because they're not out yet.  And yes, I'll take Mike Evans props too.  I see a 27-24 type game....not a 42.5 total.  

One of my favorite plays of the week (I'm personally Teasing it to 35). Over the Bucs last 7 games, they've had go U40 points scored, and that was against Will Levis & Bryce Young. Jordan Love is hot right now, and even with Watson out he should have enough weapons to expose TBs leaky secondary. TB has also been very good playing catch up this season & it should be another big game for Rachaad White. 

[SaveOurSonics]

Here's my official Props for Saturday's games. 

 

J.Chase O63.5 Receiving - I wanted to bet the Mixon U Rushing here, but with it only being at 56.5, I think Chase is a sneaky good hedge. By that I mean I think it can easily hit if Mixon has a good game, & should have an even better chance of hitting if Mixon is bottled up. I mentioned in a previous post that Minnesota's blitzing tendencies open them up to being exposed with YAC, which is exactly what Chase does best. 

M.Trubisky U16.5 Rushing - This just feels like a massive overreaction to an ugly game against a stingy defense in New England. Trubisky didn't hit the Over on this line once in 2022 over 7 games (never even hit 10 yards) & I expect the Steelers to really lean into the run game & play action in this one. 

D.Montgomery O66.5 Rushing - This is a smash spot for the Lions ground game. I just talked about how the Over was a good play in this game, which means I expect the Lions to sustain drives. DMont has been both volume heavy and efficient this season, & Denver's rush defense is awful. 

S.LaPorta O47.5 Receiving (2u) - Smash spot for LaPorta. Denver does a good job containing WRs but is very leaky to TEs & RBs alike. LaPorta is the type of YAC threat that can expose them on only 3-4 catches. Again, Lions home game means I want the Over on player props. 

N.Harris O53.5 Rushing - Over his last 6 games, Najee has hit this Over in 4 of 6. The two misses came on a short week with a bum knee against a stingy NE run defense & the other was an ugly 23 total point game against Cleveland. PIT's new OC Eddie Faulkner has really leaned on Najee since taking over & I expect the same coming off extra rest days. 

 

[N4L]

 

11 minutes ago, SaveOurSonics said:

1 hour ago, Broncofan said:

Gibbs & Laporta are definitely favorite plays for me

I love the LaPorta play this week, but if we're talking Gibbs Receiving, I'm not as excited about the Over. He's really lacked effectiveness & involvement the last 3 weeks in this area & he's been in mostly really soft RB receptions defenses over that stretch. Don't get me wrong, it should hit, but it's hard for me to bet against a bit of a trend. 

It is the gibbs rushing prop, not rec. Anyone betting his rec props have take lock imo 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, SaveOurSonics said:

I'm really hesitant with Chicago because they simply haven't been good on the road this season. Cleveland can be a tough place to play & the Browns defense certainly performs better there. Granted, they are out Delpit for this one (is Denzel Ward returning?). 

______________________________

I love the LaPorta play this week, but if we're talking Gibbs Receiving, I'm not as excited about the Over. He's really lacked effectiveness & involvement the last 3 weeks in this area & he's been in mostly really soft RB receptions defenses over that stretch. Don't get me wrong, it should hit, but it's hard for me to bet against a bit of a trend. 

 

RE: CHI, the difference is their D is near-elite now.   I was one of the ppl who LOL'd at the Montez Sweat trade, but he's the missing piece to make the run D elite, and his added pressure in pass situations is letting the coverage upgrade their level of play.    On the other side of the ball, CLE's D ability to be run on, and losing more pass rushers as well as elite cover guys, really changes the dynamic of that D.  When everyone is healthy, that's a dominant D.   But they're so snakebitten with injuries to where teams can run AND pass at key weak spots on the team. 

 

RE: Gibbs, no, the play this week is Gibbs rush yds.    It was set at 43.5 - now it's 51.5 lol.    It was literally almost 20 yards lower than Monty's - when Gibbs is getting equal to more snaps now.    Against DEN's run D, that's a smash spot.

Edited December 15, 2023 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

 

 

He was iffy with a neck issue, and now a knee.   Even if Godwin plays, Deven Thompkins +800 / +11000 2+ DK vs. GB 0.4U/0.1U gets touches as a speed guy and still sees occasional work as the WR3, so I'm good with the odds here with a half-stake play.

 

 

[Dash]

Kind of hesitant to call the Bears defense really good just yet. They shut down the lions passing game and it could be a mix of them being divisional opponents and/or Goff just not playing as solidly lately. The other two QBs they played in this dominate four game stretch are Young and Dobbs. 

Maybe it's because I actually sat down and watched the game last week between the Browns and the jaguars, but Flacco looked like he was really in control that game with where he wanted to go for the most part. 

Of course he could play like he actually did just join a new team a few weeks ago. It was also the Jaguars pass funnel defense. He also completed only 50% of his passes to Cooper who has 14 targets. He is also 40 and not that mobile. The Browns also lost an offensive lineman I think.

Just think that Flacco can keep it chugging against another pass funnel defense and they will have a game plan in place to attack certain spots. I do see that the Bears have been elite against the run all year, but if the browns can get Njoku to keep playing like he has with Cooper getting more in sync with Flacco they can do somethings this upcoming game. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Dash

[Dash]

The putting money where mouth is play would be

Flacco 225+ pass yards at -125 ( plus money 250+ passing yards at +160

Cooper over 55.5 receiving yards at - 115 ( plus money for over 70 yards at +155 )

Njoku over 41.5 receiving yards at -110 ( plus money for over 50 receiving yards at +125 )

 

Think this is good value just based on the Bears clearly being elite against the run but still hesitant on the pass defense. 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Dash

[Broncofan]

6 hours ago, Dash said:

The putting money where mouth is play would be

Flacco 225+ pass yards at -125 ( plus money 250+ passing yards at +160

Cooper over 55.5 receiving yards at - 115 ( plus money for over 70 yards at +155 )

Njoku over 41.5 receiving yards at -110 ( plus money for over 50 receiving yards at +125 )

 

Think this is good value just based on the Bears clearly being elite against the run but still hesitant on the pass defense. 

FWIW the above plays can be decent - and CLE still loses.   Njoku is an excellent standalone call FWIW because CHI’s D really focuses on keeping the ball in front of them and their best cover guys are on the WR’s.   The Bears give up the 5th highest TD yardage.  
 

And Flacco / Cooper could get there on volume alone if they are trailing.   It’s definitely the most obvious path to functioning O in a W or garbage time in a L.   We’re about to find out how good Jaylon Johnson is - Cooper is a guy who absolutely kills it when he’s not facing very good to elite CB (and he’s healthy, big issue in past with Coop) - but the best CB traditionally shut him down.   It’s why I’ve had Cooper props several weeks (including last one).   I just like other plays better this week because Johnson has been playing great this year.   This is a week where we find out just how good to great he is.    
 

PS - surely there are better alt lines if you are going to take them?  +155 to risk 15 yards isn’t great.   Is there a +200 or better line for sub 75?  The thing about alt lines is if you’re right on main alt lines are usually in play.  But you want the payoff to be so much more the added yardage risk is worth it.   I’d rather see +200 or more at 75 or less  to go there.  My 2 cents .

Edited December 16, 2023 by Broncofan

[thebestever6]

Anyone ever bet UFC? I am a casual fan but am itching to bet on it tonight any advice on where to find edges and info? I'm tempted to buy this guy's picks he's the NJbettingguru swept 8 out of 10 main cards but $64.99 is steep I'd rather put in the work myself.