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BStanRamFan

By BStanRamFan
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adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

he's +350 on espn bet if you're going there I can't bring myself to do it.

Nah I'm gonna skip it, if it were at the +600 or better range I'd throw a dart for fun but not at these odds. Philly is struggling and needs to get back on track.. some gimmicky joke stat shouldn't come into play today. With that coaching staff I wouldn't be surprised if they gave him a shot though 

 

 

 

All, AOC is +1900 to score on FD.. this seems awfully long for a starting QB, no? He has started 7 games and has a grand total of 7 rushes for 11 yards, sure, but if LV somehow gets it to the 1 yard line that QB sneak/push play they did in week 4 is very live

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

Merry Xmas! 🎄

i took some plays late last night as I was wrapping presents lol, here goes…. Full card all in 1 place: 

 

WEEK 16 XMAS MON

ATS / ML

NEW ADDED MON AM - LV - KC O40.5 - I know it’s intradivision.  But both teams know each other well, no Josh Jacobs likely makes it more of a faster paced game so I’ll go with the over.  

BAL +6 @ SF - covered before 

 

That’s 2U in picks. 
 

 

PLAYER PROPS 

Jakobi Meyers O37.5 rec yds 2U DK, 53+ rec yds +210 1U, 71+ rec yds +500 0.5u vs. KC (from  before) - KC uses shadow coverage with L'jarius Snead on Davante Adams, and he's very good (doesn't completely shut down, but limits the ceiling).   So it's very easy to go after the Robin in Meyers vs. KC, much better matchups to attack.
 

NEW ADDED MON AM - Hunter Renfrow O18.5 rec yds FD (DK 19.5) 2U, 32+ rec yds +210 1U DK,  45+ rec yds 0.5U DK @ KC - with Snead on Adams and no Michael Mayer I prefer Renfrow to Hooper as the beneficiary.  

NEW ADDED MON AM - Noah Gray O11.5 rec yds 2U, 25+ rec yds +250 1U DK vs. LV - with no Toney & no Mckonnon more work here.  Worth the 25+ X+ alt line.  
 

NEW ADDED MON AM Richie James O10.5 rec yds 2U TheScore (-130 on DK), 25+ rec yds +220 1U  vs. LV  - sadly there are no alt lines (only X).   He’s the other beneficiary as Toney is out.  
 

Darius Slayton O27.5 rec yds 2U DK (FD - 29.5), 41+ rec yds +210 1U, 57+ rec yds +500 0.5U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U @ PHI (from before) - we know how vulnerable PHI is, and it's pretty much everywhere.  Slayton is the player with the most volume and snaps, big-play ability, so 70+ yards is def in range.  So, at 70+ for +900, I'll be going with 3 alt lines.   This was the first play I took when the weekend slate came up.

ADDED in KC GAME - Wandale Robinson O4.5 catches +120 2U - against PHI D the other main snap guy.  Short area only so catches better. 

 

D'Andre Swift O62.5 rush yds 2U DK (65.5) vs NYG (from before) - I'm going here because the NYG run D doesn't look to be with Dexter Lawrence this week.  That's massive - the whole run D craters to bottom 5-8 level with him one.   **EDIT FRI PM** - sadly, the main line has gone up so much, the alt line value isn't great, so sticking with the rare solo 2U play.
 

ADDED in KC GAME - Wandale Robinson O4.5 catches +120 2U - against PHI D the other main snap guy.  Short area only so catches better. 

 

ADDED IN KC GAME - Rashod Bateman o26.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +340 1U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK @ SF - he’s getting increasing targets and he’s splitting outside work on the RWR spot with Zay Flowers.  Flowers’ total is 20 yards higher so this is easy to take.  Sadly no 2nd alt line so I’ll go with the aggressive X lines offered. 


ADDED IN KC GAME - Isaiah Likeky O37.5 rec yds 2U, 53+ rec yds +210 1U, 70+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ SF - the new security blanket.   And the weakness in deeper middle with SF missing S Hufanga. 


 So that’s 28U in 9 ATS/ML picks   

 

LONGSHOT TD 

NEW ADDED SAT PM - Noah Gray +950 / +12000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U & Richie James +1000 FD / +9000 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U @ LV - Kadarius Toney & Jerick McKinnon are out this week, these 2 guys benefit.   James is crazy -  +350 & +375 on Bodog & Score & +700 on DK.  
 

NEW ADDED MON AM - Justyn Ross +1000 / +14000 2+ FD 0.4U / 0.1U vs LV - covering the RZ bases for the KC longshots.  
 

NEW ADDED MON AM - Austin Hooper +1100 / +12500 2+ Bodog (now +425 - gone) & Hunter Renfrow +1000 / +11000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ KC - Hooper’s value gone but Renfrow still value with TE Mayer out   

Darius Slayton +650 FD / +11000 2+ FD & Isaiah Hodgins +1200 DK / +12000 2+ DK (take now) 0.4U / 0.1U @ PHI** - pretty simple, I want the WR's who play a lot and have great odds.    Half-stake play.  


NEW ADDED FRI PM - Olamide Zaccheus & Quez Watkins +1000 / +12500 2+ Bodog 0.4U / 0.1U each vs. NYG**.  Other sites have them at +600 or less.   Because it’s MNF we could see Devonta play so it’s a risky play 

 

Charlie Kolar +1600 FD (+800 DK lol) / ? 2-TD (+10000 DK, wait on Bodog) 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - we saw his usage last MNF, I don't think it will be any different....gotta take it again at +1600 lol.

Nelson Agholor +800 FD (+750 DK, wait on other books for now) / +10000 2+ DK 0.4U / 0.1U @ SF - same as last week, he's the #3 WR and gets plenty of snaps and routes in the RZ.    SF isn't as vulnerable as JAX was, so only a half-stake play this week.

NEW ADDED FRI PM - Chris Conley +900 TheScore (+750 FD) / +12000 FD 2+ 0.4U / 0.1U vs. BAL - Jauan Jennings in concussion protocol, and Ronnie Bell doesn't play slot, so Conley's worth the half-stake play.
 

So that’s 6U in TD plays.  It’s a lot but a ton of value I see for MON.  Thats 36U so far and likely 2 player props for BAL - SF.  Let’s see if Santa rewards our plays!  

WEEK 16 SUN 

ATS/ML: 37-38-1, -2.6U (WK 16 SUN - 2-3, -1.9U)

PLAYER PROPS: 141-128, +123.9U  (WK 16 SUN - 10-11, -6.7U)

LONGSHOT TD: 32-229- +25.6U  (WK 16 SUN - 4-12, +14.9U, ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600)

TOTAL - +146.9U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 SUN - +6.3U; 1212U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
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adamq

adamq

Posted
Posted (edited)

Bal/SF is gonna be a stay away from me for the most part. I took at stab at Woerner anytime TD, but I have no clue how this game will go. Does feel like an under with these two defenses

 

Kolar is +1600/+15000 on pointsbet

 

 

 

Underdog has 2 gimme plays, lebron and giannis o.5 points.. there is a bet limit so I maxed each of them with Carlson 2+ FGs and Pacheco to score. 

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Broncofan

Broncofan

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Posted

I’ve added my 2 BAL - SF plays: 

 

ADDED IN KC GAME - Rashod Bateman o26.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +340 1U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK @ SF - he’s getting increasing targets and he’s splitting outside work on the RWR spot with Zay Flowers.  Flowers’ total is 20 yards higher so this is easy to take.  Sadly no 2nd alt line so I’ll go with the aggressive X lines offered. 


ADDED IN KC GAME - Isaiah Likeky O37.5 rec yds 2U, 53+ rec yds +210 1U, 70+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ SF - the new security blanket.   And the weakness in deeper middle with SF missing S Hufanga. 

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SmittyBacall

SmittyBacall

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I’ve added my 2 BAL - SF plays: 

 

ADDED IN KC GAME - Rashod Bateman o26.5 rec yds 2U, 50+ rec yds +340 1U, 70+ rec yds +900 0.5U DK @ SF - he’s getting increasing targets and he’s splitting outside work on the RWR spot with Zay Flowers.  Flowers’ total is 20 yards higher so this is easy to take.  Sadly no 2nd alt line so I’ll go with the aggressive X lines offered. 


ADDED IN KC GAME - Isaiah Likeky O37.5 rec yds 2U, 53+ rec yds +210 1U, 70+ rec yds +500 0.5U DK @ SF - the new security blanket.   And the weakness in deeper middle with SF missing S Hufanga. 

I like Likely. This feels like an Odell rebound game after last weeks stinker. I can see him seeing 2 balls on the first drive.

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted (edited)

What a Roller Coaster Xmas…


WEEK 16 XMAS SUN RECAP


ATS/ML - 1-1, even

PLAYER PROPS - 5-4, +9.4U - it wasn’t that the props hit its that 4/5 winners today hit so late and went from 0-for to main & 1 alt line for Likely / James and then main + all 3 alt lines for Slayton.   And then even Swift last PHI drive got his main line needing 18+ rush yds.    It def makes up for SUN’s injuries wiping out 3 players early.    


LONGSHOT TD - 2-10, +3.2U - waiting until just before Gametime paid off for Slayton going +700 & Agholor +950.    Caps off a great TD week.  

So it’s a +12.6U day and a +18.6U week. .   It looked SO BAD until Slayton scored and then the Xmas spirit really kicked in.   On to WK 17!

 

 

WEEK 16 FINAL

ATS/ML: 38-39-1, -2.6U (WK 16  - 3-4, -1.9U)

**PLAYER PROPS: 146-132, +133.7U** (WK 16 - 15-15, +2.7U)

**LONGSHOT TD: 34-239, +28.4U**  (WK 16 - 6-14, +17.7U, ;  Wk1 R-Shaheed +600, D-Parham +800 & R-Johnson +900; Wk2 - I-Hodgins +500 & B-Johnson +950 / +7500 2+; Wk3 - R-Bell +2000 & R-Chosen +2100; Wk4: N-Gray +700;  Wk8 - D-Ogletree +950 & Parham +400; Wk9 - D-Johnson +300 & J-Johnson +440 & N-Brown +600; Wk10 - T-Chandler +900 & J-Reed +600; Wk11 - N-Agholor +750 & T-Tremble +850; Wk12 - T-Kraft +800 & S-Howell +700 & G-Dortch +550 & I-Hodgins +1100 & H-Bryant +1400; Wk13 - S-Howell +800 / +12500 2+ & H-Bryant +900 & N-Gray +900 & J-Browning +1400; Wk15 - J-Palmer +425 & M-Mayer +600 & A-Erickson +1400 & J-Johnson +500 & K-Harris +2000; Wk16 - J-Johnson +600, D-Wicks +350, C-Parkinson +1100, L-Krull +1600, D-Slayton +700 & N-Agholor +950)

TOTAL - +159.5U (Wk1 - +3.0U; Wk2: +14.3U; Wk3: -0.8U, Wk4: -5.4U; Wk5 : +15.5U; Wk 6 -22.1U (OUCH); WK 7 - +12.3U; Wk 8 - +14.3U; Wk9 - +2.6U; Wk10 - +42.2U; Wk11 - +0.3U; Wk12- -8.3U; Wk13 - +63.2U; WK14 - -13.2 U;  WK15 - +24.1U; WK16 - +18.9U; 1246U stake so far)

Edited by Broncofan
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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted

One last hoops play (and it might be my last for a while if I can’t break even lol) - I’m going with the Alpert Sengun o22.5 2U / 30+ +400 1U / 35+ +1100 0.5U ladder, Green o18.5 2U / 25+ +320 1U / 30 +900 0.5U & Jabari Smith o17.5 2U  / 25+ +450 1U ladder on FD.  IND so vulnerable to those who drive and shoot 3’s.     Praying it’s not a blowout.   

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Broncofan

Broncofan

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, thebestever6 said:

ok I have a 4 unit bet for lamar to win mvp at +850 they're offering  19units for the cash out thats a lot of money do I hedge?

Personally I think Lamar has it now.   Dak and Purdy just disqualified themselves.   The problem is I don’t know who you hedge with now.   I guess Tua?  But the fact you can’t even ID the right hedge means it’s stay away for me. 

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