Brandon Graham: Most Underrated Player in the League?

[BAConrad]

IOutside of Eagles fans, not many people know much about Brandon Graham. Most fans think of him as a solid player who maybe underachieved when you look at his sack totals (never had more than 7 in a season) and the fact that he was taken top 15, ahead of Earl Thomas.

 

But over the past few years, he has developed into one of THE best edge rushers in the entire NFL. In fact, he belongs amongst the elite players at his position. 

Week 1 vs Wash:

2 sacks

2 QB hurries

1 FF 

4 Defensive Stops

 

 

In 2016, he was the 2nd best DE according to PFF with an overall grade of 93.6 (IIRC). Only behind Khalil Mack. The DPOY.  

 

 

Graham is forgotten because he isn't a 10+ sack guy.  But as we have some to learn, sacks are an over-valued stat. There's so many ways to disrupt the play on a pass for a rusher.  Like hitting the quarterback, hurrying the quarterback, pressuring him,  etc. All of those things, Graham does as well as almost any of his peers. 

 

In 2016, Graham had 83 QB pressures. Which was third behind only Mack and Olivier Vernon. 

Just to give you an idea on how pressures can be so vital here's a stat:

Unhurried QBs had an average passer rating in the mid 90s last season. 

QBs that were hurried had a 34 point drop in passer rating, averaging out in the mid 60s. 

 

I know most people will bring up the fact that Graham doesn't get those huge sack numbers. 

PFF came up with a formula that measured the value of sacks vs pressures. 

They said that in terms of value, 1 sack= 2.1 pressures. So of course sacks are still more valuable in general (though not always). 

We can use Vic Beasley as an example to compare. 

 

He had 16 sacks last year compared to Grahams 6. 

 

However, Graham had THIRTY EIGHT more pressures than Beasley. So it can be very easily argued that he was the 2nd or 3rd most valuable edge rusher in the league last year. 

The one weird thing is that in his career, he's only converter 7.2 percent of his pressures into sacks,  compared to the league average of 15%. There's no definitive answer as to why this is. Could be that he's so disruptive that his teammates end up with the sack, though it was because of Graham. Possibly. No one really knows.

 

My guess is that this season, he converts a lot more of those pressures into sacks and finishes with 14 sacks. Then, just then, maybe he'll get the recognition he deserves.

 

The guy is an absolute animal. He is an ELITE player at a Premium position, helping to lead one of THE best defenses in the NFL , yet is rarely ever talked about. 

That is why he is the most underrated player in football. Or at least, on defense

 

 

 

 

 

[Xmad]

It's almost like Brandon Graham's agent pays PFF a lot of money or something....

[BAConrad]

2 minutes ago, OleXmad said:

It's almost like Brandon Graham's agent pays PFF a lot of money or something....

 

 

NO that was Evan Mathis.

 

 

There's stats to back up their grade for him. You're just too lazy to look at them

[Xmad]

17 minutes ago, BAConrad said:

 

 

NO that was Evan Mathis.

 

 

There's stats to back up their grade for him. You're just too lazy to look at them

I love how you admit PFF is willing to take bribes from players but "No it was the other Eagles player that did that" I was joking.

Obviously PFF isn't perfect, far from it. But I will admit he's a very good DE, pretty underrated as well. Top 5 defensive player in the league though? nah. He's a top 10 edge rusher though. 

[BAConrad]

2 hours ago, OleXmad said:

I love how you admit PFF is willing to take bribes from players but "No it was the other Eagles player that did that" I was joking.

Obviously PFF isn't perfect, far from it. But I will admit he's a very good DE, pretty underrated as well. Top 5 defensive player in the league though? nah. He's a top 10 edge rusher though. 

The Mathis thing is a joke. I wasn't being serious. SMH.

 

So if a "very good top 10 DE" is a guy whose been top 5 in qb hits,  pressures, and hurries since 2015, what exactly would be your list of players ahead of him? all 9 of them?

 

 

Also,  never said he was one of the 5 best defenders. Feel free to reread the article. 

 

I'm trying to start a legitimate discussion about an arguably elite player at a Premium position who never seems to get any sort of attention. You're ruining that with bad jokes and no ability to understand these stats and their value. 

[Xmad]

6 minutes ago, BAConrad said:

The Mathis thing is a joke. I wasn't being serious. SMH.

 

So if a "very good top 10 DE" is a guy whose been top 5 in qb hits,  pressures, and hurries since 2015, what exactly would be your list of players ahead of him? all 9 of them?

 

 

Also,  never said he was one of the 5 best defenders. Feel free to reread the article. 

 

I'm trying to start a legitimate discussion about an arguably elite player at a Premium position who never seems to get any sort of attention. You're ruining that with bad jokes and no ability to understand these stats and their value. 

"he belongs amongst the elite players at his position. " Elite=top 3 players to me. 

If we're including 3-4 DEs because they're still DEs. 

1. J.J watt

2. Khalil Mack

3.  Cliff Avril

4. Michael Bennet

5. Chandler Jones (He plays 3-4 LB now but played 4-3 DE with the patriots)

6. Everson Griffin

7. Joey Bosa

8. Olivier Vernon

9. JPP

10. Cameron heyward

Probably forgetting a few players. 

[MD4L]

I'd say Fletcher Cox is underrated on PFF. Graham is definitely a top 50 player regardless of position. 

[Hunter2_1]

I cited him as one of the most underrated in the league, yes. Consistent pressure. 

 

And BA. You need to calm yourself a bit. 

[Hunter2_1]

9 minutes ago, OleXmad said:

"he belongs amongst the elite players at his position. " Elite=top 3 players to me. 

If we're including 3-4 DEs because they're still DEs. 

1. J.J watt

2. Khalil Mack

3.  Cliff Avril

4. Michael Bennet

5. Chandler Jones (He plays 3-4 LB now but played 4-3 DE with the patriots)

6. Everson Griffin

7. Joey Bosa

8. Olivier Vernon

9. JPP

10. Cameron heyward

Probably forgetting a few players. 

Graham is easily within that lot. He's better than Jones, Vernon, JPP and Heyward. 

[Xmad]

15 minutes ago, Hunter2_1 said:

Graham is easily within that lot. He's better than Jones, Vernon, JPP and Heyward. 

Rank them wherever you like, At the end of the day they're all in that 5-12 Tier. 

Plus he's not even the best player on his defense. That would be Malcolm Jenkins

[Hunter2_1]

1 minute ago, OleXmad said:

Rank them wherever you like, At the end of the day they're all in that 5-12 Tier. 

Plus he's not even the best player on his defense. That would be Malcolm Jenkins

Yeah I don't like individual ranking. It's all about tiers.

[Jakuvious]

There's a few things I want to highlight here.

5 hours ago, BAConrad said:

But over the past few years, he has developed into one of THE best edge rushers in the entire NFL. In fact, he belongs amongst the elite players at his position. 

Graham is underrated, and he definitely is a quality edge rusher, but he is absolutely not an elite edge rusher yet. He has not shown the ability to produce and disrupt on the level of a guy like Watt, Mack, Miller, or Houston. And I don't really see an argument for it. If he can play a full season like he played last week, we can talk, but he's not elite because there is that gap between him and the top guys.

 

5 hours ago, BAConrad said:

Graham is forgotten because he isn't a 10+ sack guy.  But as we have some to learn, sacks are an over-valued stat. There's so many ways to disrupt the play on a pass for a rusher.  Like hitting the quarterback, hurrying the quarterback, pressuring him,  etc. All of those things, Graham does as well as almost any of his peers. 

You're not wrong, here. Pressures absolutely can be undervalued, but there is a difficulty in pressures because they're a very subjective stat. There's a reason you'll never find them on ESPN or NFL.com, because what constitutes a pressure will always be a matter of opinion, and consistencies have been found before in PFF's tracking of that stat.

Additionally, while pressures do have value, sacks do still have more value. If given a choice between a player who gets 7 pressures in a game, and a player who gets 2 sacks and 5 pressures in a game, give me the latter. And while the amount of pressure Graham provided last year would set him apart from most players, guys like I mentioned above, the Macks and Watts of the league, produce that rate of pressure while ALSO producing double digit sack totals.

5 hours ago, BAConrad said:

However, Graham had THIRTY EIGHT more pressures than Beasley. So it can be very easily argued that he was the 2nd or 3rd most valuable edge rusher in the league last year. 

Producing more pressures than Beasley does not make him the 2nd or 3rd most valuable edge rusher. Beasley is the opposite end of the spectrum. A highly disproportionate amount of his pressures were sacks. He didn't generate as much pressure as his sack total reflects. So comparing Graham to Beasley shouldn't really convince anyone. And saying him being better than Beasley makes him 2nd or 3rd just doesn't really make any sense. Those two things have nothing to do with each other.

 

5 hours ago, BAConrad said:

The one weird thing is that in his career, he's only converter 7.2 percent of his pressures into sacks,  compared to the league average of 15%. There's no definitive answer as to why this is. Could be that he's so disruptive that his teammates end up with the sack, though it was because of Graham. Possibly. No one really knows.

You're overlooking the obvious answer here. That he just isn't as good at finishing those plays as the elite guys are. That may not be the case, but it's generally the most likely answer. Particularly given that it has been consistent throughout his career. During one season you can certainly get unlucky and have a lot of almost moments. But a career of that and you probably just aren't good enough at finishing.

 

6 hours ago, BAConrad said:

The guy is an absolute animal. He is an ELITE player at a Premium position, helping to lead one of THE best defenses in the NFL , yet is rarely ever talked about. 

Again, it's because he just isn't quite elite and the Eagles really aren't one of the best defense's in the NFL either. They were a little above average last year (maybe they'll step it up this year, but it's WAY too early to make that claim.) And Graham isn't on the level of Watt/Mack/Houston/Miller, so I can't agree that he's elite. He's probably a top 5 4-3 DE, but you're omitting half the league at that point and there's still a gap between him and Mack there anyway.

[Tugboat]

44 minutes ago, Jakuvious said:

There's a few things I want to highlight here.

Graham is underrated, and he definitely is a quality edge rusher, but he is absolutely not an elite edge rusher yet. He has not shown the ability to produce and disrupt on the level of a guy like Watt, Mack, Miller, or Houston. And I don't really see an argument for it. If he can play a full season like he played last week, we can talk, but he's not elite because there is that gap between him and the top guys.

 

You're not wrong, here. Pressures absolutely can be undervalued, but there is a difficulty in pressures because they're a very subjective stat. There's a reason you'll never find them on ESPN or NFL.com, because what constitutes a pressure will always be a matter of opinion, and consistencies have been found before in PFF's tracking of that stat.

Additionally, while pressures do have value, sacks do still have more value. If given a choice between a player who gets 7 pressures in a game, and a player who gets 2 sacks and 5 pressures in a game, give me the latter. And while the amount of pressure Graham provided last year would set him apart from most players, guys like I mentioned above, the Macks and Watts of the league, produce that rate of pressure while ALSO producing double digit sack totals.

Producing more pressures than Beasley does not make him the 2nd or 3rd most valuable edge rusher. Beasley is the opposite end of the spectrum. A highly disproportionate amount of his pressures were sacks. He didn't generate as much pressure as his sack total reflects. So comparing Graham to Beasley shouldn't really convince anyone. And saying him being better than Beasley makes him 2nd or 3rd just doesn't really make any sense. Those two things have nothing to do with each other.

 

You're overlooking the obvious answer here. That he just isn't as good at finishing those plays as the elite guys are. That may not be the case, but it's generally the most likely answer. Particularly given that it has been consistent throughout his career. During one season you can certainly get unlucky and have a lot of almost moments. But a career of that and you probably just aren't good enough at finishing.

 

Again, it's because he just isn't quite elite and the Eagles really aren't one of the best defense's in the NFL either. They were a little above average last year (maybe they'll step it up this year, but it's WAY too early to make that claim.) And Graham isn't on the level of Watt/Mack/Houston/Miller, so I can't agree that he's elite. He's probably a top 5 4-3 DE, but you're omitting half the league at that point and there's still a gap between him and Mack there anyway.

Yeah. At the end of the day this line of argument can be boiled down to the value of sacks vs "pressures" and "hurries". Which is tough to rule on unequivocally.

Absolutely sacks can be overrepresented in some cases due to the role some players play, misrepresenting the consistency of their pressure. Consistent pressure is highly valuable. But there's more to it than that...

Not only is there a more subjective quality to what constitutes those "pressure" stats...there's a hefty deal of added value to actually getting home for a sack. 

An incomplete pass is good. Actually backing an offense up on top of successfully preventing any pass completion...? That's so much better. 

[Tetsujin]

I know he's been the subject of trade rumors to Miami a few times.

[Hunter2_1]

52 minutes ago, freak_of_nature said:

I know he's been the subject of trade rumors to Miami a few times.

Not another one...