Positions big money should NOT be spent on

[Ghostnote]

On 1/9/2020 at 10:54 AM, Thaiphoon said:

Honest answer?

The front 7 can make average secondary look elite. Big money should flow from the lines, out. 

That being said, there are 22 positions. I'm not saying bring in guys off the street to play these 4. Just that these would be the lowest paid players on the team.

And I also offered the caveat that for exceptional play by an exceptional player, I'd pay up for.

Prime example: Josh Norman. 

[Skins212689]

1 hour ago, MikeT14 said:

You're not going to be able to unless we trade down. 

You see him going in the 1st like Savage? 

[MikeT14]

27 minutes ago, Skins212689 said:

You see him going in the 1st like Savage? 

I think he could, but even if not, he's definitely a 2nd rounder. He's really good, I agree with you.

[turtle28]

On 1/9/2020 at 10:37 PM, naptownskinsfan said:

I agree with just about all of this.  I do think paying a top tier "center field" free safety is worth the investment though.  Not many of those guys hit the FA market, and when they do, it's usually because they are pushing 30 or over (see Earl Thomas) 

Which is why when those guys come available we should sign one, and when we can in the draft, we should draft one. That's something we haven't done in 15 years and we all wonder why our pass D isn't better than average anymore? Well the void in talent at the FS position is big reason why. In the last 12 year we've made 5 strong safeties play free safety because we ”didn't have anyone else better” as a franchise, front office, scouting department and coaching staff that unacceptable. I don't know why people can’t make that connection.

It's not that I think FS is more important than DL, CB or LB in the grand scheme of things it's not, but it does mean something bc its an important part of your defense and if you continuously trot out SS’s w/ no range or instincts or guys like Bacarri Rambo and Montae Nicholson who blow assignments and miss tackles it's going to cost you games and it has for a decade.

Edited January 11, 2020 by turtle28

[turtle28]

15 hours ago, Skins212689 said:

I'm paying or drafting a FS that can cover the backend of the field for us. Leaving less deep coverage duties to Collins. Let Collins play the middle and the run. The guy I want out of the draft is Xavier McKinney. 

That's why I want to move Collins to weakside LB and dime LB, he plays like a LB anyway. We can get a different FS and sign someone like Anthony Harris - Vikings or Jimmie Ward of the 49ers, they're both playing this weekend. They’re good FS’s, Coincidence That they’re playing his weekend, I don't think so...

I still don't understand why Mike Mitchell’s wasn’t in the league last year - we should’ve signed him - yeah he wasn't a great safety but he was a good FS - he has 4.3 speed - and he has pked SS too, be can play either position. He played FS in Pitt, but SS in Oakland, Carolina and Indianapolis. We tried to sign him back in 2014 but Bruce wouldn't pay him more than the steelers did - you believe that? That's how cheap Bruce was! - and Mitchell went to play in Pitt for 4 seasons and then signed on a cheap deal to the Colts. He's only 32, he got hurt w/ the Colts bc he didn't finish the season and didn't play last year. It wasn't a serious injury, just a calf injury.

If he wants to play football again, I'd give him a tryout and I’d give Junior Galette a try out to be a situational pass rusher now that Bruce gone but if we draft Chase Young that doesn't make sense bc Galette isn't someone you want as a 4th DE bc he doesn't play special teams.

Edited January 11, 2020 by turtle28

[Thaiphoon]

On 1/10/2020 at 3:28 AM, turtle28 said:

Examples of this?
 

It's mostly a false theory that has proved wrong over and over by me for a decade.
 

The only time I can honestly think of  you and Mknight’s love affair with average safety play but still having a great defense being the case was the 2015 Panthers when their secondary talent was just average but bc their linebacking corps was elite, their D was.

Going throughout the history of the NFL though that's usually not been the case. The best defenses in NFL history had great talent at all 3 levels and heck, the 2000 Ravens had Hall of Fame talent at every level but their DL and the Steelers w/ Polumalu had a great defense in large part bc their Hall of Fame SS... Not even a FS! Their Hall of Fame SS!

Again, it's about the players, not the position!

Look at the Redskins from last decade. Our DL was below average at pass rush but great run stuffers. Our LB corps and secondary were elite so we had a great defense. A great secondary can be just as important as a great DL if your secondary is elite and w/ Taylor, Clark, Springs & Smoot when we were an elite secondary while our down 4’s pass rush was pedestrian in 04 & 05.

Jesus dude, I've given you tons of examples over the years.  And no...you haven't invalidated anything. You simply forget what was ever said in response.

It's not a "false theory". There are tons of real world examples.

Here's one example. And I'm not doing more than this because a) I don't care to detail all the games again like I once did for you and b) my time is valuable and I detest having to do this over and over a la "Groundhog Day"

That being said...

Ready?

Bookmark it everyone so the next time turtle goes off on this you can point this out to him (since he conveniently "forgets").

Here's a detailed example of why you want a dominant front 7 and avg secondary rather than the reverse.

Giants vs. Panthers (9/22/2013 - Week 3)

Both teams were 0-2 headed into Week 3.

Giants entered Week 3 with the highest rated passing offense. They entered the game as the favorite.

So what happened in that game?

Well...

Eli was harrassed by the pass rush, all game long. 

The Giants had a total of 150 yards on offense that day (most of it in garbage time).

In fact, with less than 2 minutes left in the 3Q, here were the offensive stats of the game for the Giants.

• 52 TOTAL yards
• 36 yard lost on sacks
• 1.6 yards per pass attempt
• Nicks = no targets
• Cruz = only 25 yards receiving
• RBs combined had 10 yards rushing
• Manning was the leading rusher with 14 yards

Eli threw for a total of only 119 yards. In fact he was 12/23 for 119yds, 1 INT and a 6.0 QBR (he was pulled late in the 4Q and his backup ALSO threw an INT)

Eli was sacked 7 times (6 in the first half alone).

He wasn't even able to target Nicks until the 4Q when the game was already lost 

Must've been the work of a dominant secondary, huh?

NOPE!!!

The Panthers were without BOTH of their starting safeties and ONE of their starting CBs. The had exactly ONE starter in the secondary for that game. And their backups were not that dominant. I'll repeat...they were playing backups (one of whom was 3rd string) against the highest rated pass offense in the league.

So how did the Panthers dominate the Giants (who were not that far removed from their SB win)? By pressuring the QB with the dominant front 7. That allowed the depleted secondary to look good.

So, I've given you a VERY detailed response. Bookmark it. I'm not going to repeat myself as it gets tiring to do so when you just whistle past the graveyard and then repeat the same errata (that you proved it "wrong over the past decade")

 

Now...would it be nice to get a dominant front 7 AND a dominant secondary? Sure. But if I'm choosing between:

1) Dominant front 7 + average secondary

2) average front 7 + dominant secondary

I'm going with #1 all day long. Elite DBs can only cover for so long. But a front 7 making the QB throw it before he's ready or take his head down, is gonna make the secondary look good.

Oh...the Panthers coach that day? Ron Rivera

And with that...I'm done. Gonna enjoy my Saturday with my kids.

[turtle28]

4 hours ago, Thaiphoon said:

Jesus dude, I've given you tons of examples over the years.  And no...you haven't invalidated anything. You simply forget what was ever said in response.

It's not a "false theory". There are tons of real world examples.

Here's one example. And I'm not doing more than this because a) I don't care to detail all the games again like I once did for you and b) my time is valuable and I detest having to do this over and over a la "Groundhog Day"

That being said...

Ready?

Bookmark it everyone so the next time turtle goes off on this you can point this out to him (since he conveniently "forgets").

Here's a detailed example of why you want a dominant front 7 and avg secondary rather than the reverse.

Giants vs. Panthers (9/22/2013 - Week 3)

Both teams were 0-2 headed into Week 3.

Giants entered Week 3 with the highest rated passing offense. They entered the game as the favorite.

So what happened in that game?

Well...

Eli was harrassed by the pass rush, all game long. 

The Giants had a total of 150 yards on offense that day (most of it in garbage time).

In fact, with less than 2 minutes left in the 3Q, here were the offensive stats of the game for the Giants.

• 52 TOTAL yards
• 36 yard lost on sacks
• 1.6 yards per pass attempt
• Nicks = no targets
• Cruz = only 25 yards receiving
• RBs combined had 10 yards rushing
• Manning was the leading rusher with 14 yards

Eli threw for a total of only 119 yards. In fact he was 12/23 for 119yds, 1 INT and a 6.0 QBR (he was pulled late in the 4Q and his backup ALSO threw an INT)

Eli was sacked 7 times (6 in the first half alone).

He wasn't even able to target Nicks until the 4Q when the game was already lost 

Must've been the work of a dominant secondary, huh?

NOPE!!!

The Panthers were without BOTH of their starting safeties and ONE of their starting CBs. The had exactly ONE starter in the secondary for that game. And their backups were not that dominant. I'll repeat...they were playing backups (one of whom was 3rd string) against the highest rated pass offense in the league.

So how did the Panthers dominate the Giants (who were not that far removed from their SB win)? By pressuring the QB with the dominant front 7. That allowed the depleted secondary to look good.

So, I've given you a VERY detailed response. Bookmark it. I'm not going to repeat myself as it gets tiring to do so when you just whistle past the graveyard and then repeat the same errata (that you proved it "wrong over the past decade")

 

Now...would it be nice to get a dominant front 7 AND a dominant secondary? Sure. But if I'm choosing between:

1) Dominant front 7 + average secondary

2) average front 7 + dominant secondary

I'm going with #1 all day long. Elite DBs can only cover for so long. But a front 7 making the QB throw it before he's ready or take his head down, is gonna make the secondary look good.

Oh...the Panthers coach that day? Ron Rivera

And with that...I'm done. Gonna enjoy my Saturday with my kids.

Are the Redskins from last decade the albatross then? Bc our pass rush sucked but our back end was one of the best in the league so in 04, 05, 07 & 08 when we had good defenses.

Edited January 11, 2020 by turtle28

[Thaiphoon]

2 hours ago, turtle28 said:

Are the Redskins from last decade the albatross then? Bc our pass rush sucked but our back end was one of the best in the league so in 04, 05, 07 & 08 when we had good defenses.

What.Are.You.Talking.About?

04 - our defense was ranked 30th / 26th passing (that's good to you?)... 17 sacks that year. 17. SEVEN...TEEN

05 - our defense was ranked 24th / 23rd passing (that's good to you?)

07 - our defense was ranked 25th / 17th passing (that's good to you?)

08 - our defense was ranked 29th / 26th passing (that's good to you?)... BTW - we had a whopping 24 sacks that year.

BTW - we've had this EXACT same argument before and I dealt with it the same way. This is why I say that you keep forgetting that your points have been shot down by me and others before (like now for instance).

And in a year or two, you're gonna forget and start saying again that it's a "false theory" and that there are no examples, and that you've "invalidated the argument over the past decade". 

Again...it's "Groundhog Day"

I'm out....

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, Thaiphoon said:

What.Are.You.Talking.About?

04 - our defense was ranked 30th / 26th passing (that's good to you?)... 17 sacks that year. 17. SEVEN...TEEN

05 - our defense was ranked 24th / 23rd passing (that's good to you?)

07 - our defense was ranked 25th / 17th passing (that's good to you?)

08 - our defense was ranked 29th / 26th passing (that's good to you?)... BTW - we had a whopping 24 sacks that year.

BTW - we've had this EXACT same argument before and I dealt with it the same way. This is why I say that you keep forgetting that your points have been shot down by me and others before (like now for instance).

And in a year or two, you're gonna forget and start saying again that it's a "false theory" and that there are no examples, and that you've "invalidated the argument over the past decade". 

Again...it's "Groundhog Day"

I'm out....

I thought those years our defense was top 10 all of those years?

As for the rest, if you ever think I’m going to agree that a starting position on a defense or offense is not important, I’m not. SS I can agree on a defense is the least important 11th of 11, just like Guard on offense. Free Safety is somewhere in the middle, maybe even top half as far as importance. They call the secondary plays,  they are the last line of defense through the air and if they’re good to great w/ good to great range they can keep teams from ever hitting deep passes and can get big interceptions.

Position of importance on D IMO:

DE/OLB

MLB

CB

FS

DT

OLBs
SS

Edited January 11, 2020 by turtle28

[turtle28]

@Thaiphoon You are reading the stats on NFL.com backwards for our defense. I don’t know why they do this, but when you go to the other categories for passing/run defense it ranks them opposite. So, our D was 7th in passing D in 2004 for example, we only gave up 16.6 ppg as a D.

So actually in 04 we had the 7th ranked pass defense despite having only 17 sacks. Our DL was great vs the run but pedestrian as pass rushers. Gregg had to blitz to get pressure. We had a great secondary though so even though we didn’t get a lot of pressure we did make a lot of plays on the back end w/ Clark, Taylor, Springs, Smoot and Walt Harris as our nickel corner. 

Edited January 12, 2020 by turtle28