2020 NFL Draft

[Sllim Pickens]

49 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Yeah, I agree, and I think that's my concern: he's conservative. He's afraid to play the board, which the good GMs are able to do.

If that's the GM he is, that's fine: you won't miss out on a guy like Okudah, but you'll lose draft value by being reluctant to move around in the draft.

I feel like instead of being so concerned about getting your guy, you have to look at all options.  If Okudah was that much higher than everyone on his board, I get that.  But in this situation, you have to think, does Dobbins and Matt Peart/Malik Harrison/McKelvin Agim/Jordan Elliot help more than just Swift.  Or even if we missed on the top 4, does Epenesa and Darrynton Evans/Zack Moss look better for the team than just Swift.  I feel like he gets too high on some guys and isnt willing to look at the big picture.  Its why you have to have tiers mixed with needs, and although I dont mind the pick of Swift, and think he can really help us, I just feel like he could have got more production out of that pick. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I feel like instead of being so concerned about getting your guy, you have to look at all options.  If Okudah was that much higher than everyone on his board, I get that.  But in this situation, you have to think, does Dobbins and Matt Peart/Malik Harrison/McKelvin Agim/Jordan Elliot help more than just Swift.  Or even if we missed on the top 4, does Epenesa and Darrynton Evans/Zack Moss look better for the team than just Swift.  I feel like he gets too high on some guys and isnt willing to look at the big picture.  Its why you have to have tiers mixed with needs, and although I dont mind the pick of Swift, and think he can really help us, I just feel like he could have got more production out of that pick. 

Couldn't agree more.

[LionArkie]

1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Yeah, I agree, and I think that's my concern: he's conservative. He's afraid to play the board, which the good GMs are able to do.

If that's the GM he is, that's fine: you won't miss out on a guy like Okudah, but you'll lose draft value by being reluctant to move around in the draft.

I think that's a luxury the good gm's have after they built their team.  I don't disagree with you, but as I have argued before, they are completely rebuilding with only keeping a few pieces in place.  The rich always get richer and the poor, poorer because they can't afford the risk.  I think that's the issue. I think this was a minimum five year rebuild from top to bottom...scouts, players, coaches, salaries, philosophies.  I think this is why Quinn has to be so conservative.  The Lions for years didn't have crap to work with after the 1st round. I'd say that has significantly changed in rounds 3-7 for the Lions since Quinn has taken over.  I think the stats they were lauding during the draft were 65% of your team our from round 3-7.  Since we never hit before Quinn that's a lot of free agency money inflating the salaries.  I think this is where Quinn shines.  He can field the team and create his depth with cheaper salaries on this roster, but that takes time so he really has to hit on those. Once this team starts winning or better yet IF this team starts winning, I could see us doing more and taking more chances.

But maybe I'm seeing it completely wrong.

Edited April 29, 2020 by LionArkie

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

38 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

I think that's a luxury the good gm's have after they built their team.  I don't disagree with you, but as I have argued before, they are completely rebuilding with only keeping a few pieces in place.  The rich always get richer and the poor, poorer because they can't afford the risk.  I think that's the issue. I think this was a minimum five year rebuild from top to bottom...scouts, players, coaches, salaries, philosophies.  I think this is why Quinn has to be so conservative.  The Lions for years didn't have crap to work with after the 1st round. I'd say that has significantly changed in rounds 3-7 for the Lions since Quinn has taken over.  I think the stats they were lauding during the draft were 65% of your team our from round 3-7.  Since we never hit before Quinn that's a lot of free agency money inflating the salaries.  I think this is where Quinn shines.  He can field the team and create his depth with cheaper salaries on this roster, but that takes time so he really has to hit on those. Once this team starts winning or better yet IF this team starts winning, I could see us doing more and taking more chances.

But maybe I'm seeing it completely wrong.

I agree with you completely. I think part of the problem is - again - that "one year ultimatum" handed down by Martha Firestone Ford. I hated it at the time and I hate it now. Either give your GM the slack and freedom to operate in the best interest of the team or hire someone new, but don't restrict your GM into making conservative decisions to try and keep their jobs. Don't "appease the fans" with some nonsense statement. Screw the fans. If you win, they'll support you. If you threaten your GM into playing it safe, you risk holding back your team.

Side note: can we talk about that 65% statistic that ESPN was pushing during the draft? I hate that statistic. Rounds 3-7 comprise 71% of the draft, and mid-late round picks are easier to obtain than early picks, so your team should absolutely be made of mostly 3-7 round players. Factor in UDFAs (which that stat also included) and you've got, in my opinion, a pretty obvious statement.

Just my opinion. I could be wrong on that.

Edited April 29, 2020 by TL-TwoWinsAway

[Sllim Pickens]

1 hour ago, LionArkie said:

I think that's a luxury the good gm's have after they built their team.  I don't disagree with you, but as I have argued before, they are completely rebuilding with only keeping a few pieces in place.  The rich always get richer and the poor, poorer because they can't afford the risk.  I think that's the issue. I think this was a minimum five year rebuild from top to bottom...scouts, players, coaches, salaries, philosophies.  I think this is why Quinn has to be so conservative.  The Lions for years didn't have crap to work with after the 1st round. I'd say that has significantly changed in rounds 3-7 for the Lions since Quinn has taken over.  I think the stats they were lauding during the draft were 65% of your team our from round 3-7.  Since we never hit before Quinn that's a lot of free agency money inflating the salaries.  I think this is where Quinn shines.  He can field the team and create his depth with cheaper salaries on this roster, but that takes time so he really has to hit on those. Once this team starts winning or better yet IF this team starts winning, I could see us doing more and taking more chances.

But maybe I'm seeing it completely wrong.

I agree to some extent but you have to take risks if you want the reward.  The Dolphins took big risks last year moving Tunsil, Mincah, and Stills.  They again dropped back with all of the picks they had because they got more picks.  Given the bust rate, even for good GMs, quantity matters.  If Quin's sweet spot is rounds 3/4, then get the man more 3rd/4th round picks.  Take that risk, and trust your scouting enough to know if you miss out on your first choice, your second and third are good choices too.  I feel like the rich get richer because they know how to play the game.  The poor stay poor because they are afraid to make moves that have higher payoffs.  This goes for last year too.  There is no way a TE should be so high on your board at 10 that you cant risk losing him if you move down to get more picks.  You cant fall in love with one player, fall in love with a bunch and try to get as many as possible. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

12 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I agree to some extent but you have to take risks if you want the reward.  The Dolphins took big risks last year moving Tunsil, Mincah, and Stills.  They again dropped back with all of the picks they had because they got more picks.  Given the bust rate, even for good GMs, quantity matters.  If Quin's sweet spot is rounds 3/4, then get the man more 3rd/4th round picks.  Take that risk, and trust your scouting enough to know if you miss out on your first choice, your second and third are good choices too.  I feel like the rich get richer because they know how to play the game.  The poor stay poor because they are afraid to make moves that have higher payoffs.  This goes for last year too.  There is no way a TE should be so high on your board at 10 that you cant risk losing him if you move down to get more picks.  You cant fall in love with one player, fall in love with a bunch and try to get as many as possible. 

Yeah, this is exactly where I'm at. I understand staying for Okudah if they're certain that 1) he's an elite prospect, and 2) another team is a serious threat to make a move for him. Otherwise, if you've got three players graded similarly, and you're sitting with a valuable pick, moving down a few and grabbing an additional asset is the right way to approach the draft.

[Karnage84]

3 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I agree to some extent but you have to take risks if you want the reward.  The Dolphins took big risks last year moving Tunsil, Mincah, and Stills.  They again dropped back with all of the picks they had because they got more picks.  Given the bust rate, even for good GMs, quantity matters.  If Quin's sweet spot is rounds 3/4, then get the man more 3rd/4th round picks.  Take that risk, and trust your scouting enough to know if you miss out on your first choice, your second and third are good choices too.  I feel like the rich get richer because they know how to play the game.  The poor stay poor because they are afraid to make moves that have higher payoffs.  This goes for last year too.  There is no way a TE should be so high on your board at 10 that you cant risk losing him if you move down to get more picks.  You cant fall in love with one player, fall in love with a bunch and try to get as many as possible. 

I was upset at the Hockenson pick and it still hasn't totally settled for me. However, it makes sense.

2018 - Signs Luke Willson, Hakeem Valles and Levine Toilolo. Tries to trade for Gronkowski who then threatens to retire if he's traded from NE. Epic bust at the position. Best guy in the draft class is Mark Andrews. Really really good pass catching TE. Marginal run blocker. Even poorer pass blocker > Doesn't fit the profile at TE

2019 - FA TE's available - Jesse James and Logan Thomas. Hock is rated as "Best all around TE" coming out of college since at least 2016/2017. 

I think what happens is that Quinn identifies these players at being the best at what they do and for what the Lions want. Instead of playing games and possibly missing out, he stays conservative and takes what is more of a sure thing. High floor players that are somewhat rare. Hindsight is 20/20 and Hock's blocking wasn't what we were all expecting but he was said to be the best blocking TE to come out in several years plus he was a very capable receiver as well. 

[Sllim Pickens]

8 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

I was upset at the Hockenson pick and it still hasn't totally settled for me. However, it makes sense.

2018 - Signs Luke Willson, Hakeem Valles and Levine Toilolo. Tries to trade for Gronkowski who then threatens to retire if he's traded from NE. Epic bust at the position. Best guy in the draft class is Mark Andrews. Really really good pass catching TE. Marginal run blocker. Even poorer pass blocker > Doesn't fit the profile at TE

2019 - FA TE's available - Jesse James and Logan Thomas. Hock is rated as "Best all around TE" coming out of college since at least 2016/2017. 

I think what happens is that Quinn identifies these players at being the best at what they do and for what the Lions want. Instead of playing games and possibly missing out, he stays conservative and takes what is more of a sure thing. High floor players that are somewhat rare. Hindsight is 20/20 and Hock's blocking wasn't what we were all expecting but he was said to be the best blocking TE to come out in several years plus he was a very capable receiver as well. 

I get it, but thats what bad GMs do.  They try to force things in the draft opposed to letting it fall into their laps.  Last year we passed a pass rushing DT that is a huge need in this D for a TE after signing a bunch in free agency.  He forced the issue opposed to taking what fell to them as it wasnt expected that Oliver was going to be there.  If you take two years of data and use that to force who you pick in round 1, thats poor management.  Its the same thing he has done with Davis, Tabor, Decker even.  You have to go BPA to get the best players.  When you start forcing positions, thats when you reach and end up with lesser talents.  This was the first year I believe we haven't done that.  But it may be too late.  We can't win championships if all of our 1st and 2nd round picks turn out ok and are just fill a position.  

[Karnage84]

2 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I get it, but thats what bad GMs do.  They try to force things in the draft opposed to letting it fall into their laps.  Last year we passed a pass rushing DT that is a huge need in this D for a TE after signing a bunch in free agency.  He forced the issue opposed to taking what fell to them as it wasnt expected that Oliver was going to be there.  If you take two years of data and use that to force who you pick in round 1, thats poor management.  Its the same thing he has done with Davis, Tabor, Decker even.  You have to go BPA to get the best players.  When you start forcing positions, thats when you reach and end up with lesser talents.  This was the first year I believe we haven't done that.  But it may be too late.  We can't win championships if all of our 1st and 2nd round picks turn out ok and are just fill a position.  

Whether it's right or wrong, that is us imposing our perspective on the players and their usage. If we look at the way they ran their D last year, how concerned were they with rushing the passer? We also have to keep in mind that Snacks and A'Shawn came off very good seasons. I liked Oliver. However, he wasn't overly effective as a run blocker (which the Lions want) or as a pass rusher. 

Hock was the best TE prospect to come out in years. Scouts are monitoring guys for years. You are evaluating current year FA, current year draft, future year FA and future year draft when making roster decisions, contract decisions, etc. All of this is being balanced against immediate team needs and future needs. 

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

40 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I get it, but thats what bad GMs do.  They try to force things in the draft opposed to letting it fall into their laps.  Last year we passed a pass rushing DT that is a huge need in this D for a TE after signing a bunch in free agency.  He forced the issue opposed to taking what fell to them as it wasnt expected that Oliver was going to be there.  If you take two years of data and use that to force who you pick in round 1, thats poor management.  Its the same thing he has done with Davis, Tabor, Decker even.  You have to go BPA to get the best players.  When you start forcing positions, thats when you reach and end up with lesser talents.  This was the first year I believe we haven't done that.  But it may be too late.  We can't win championships if all of our 1st and 2nd round picks turn out ok and are just fill a position.  

I completely agree.

[LionArkie]

31 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I get it, but thats what bad GMs do.  They try to force things in the draft opposed to letting it fall into their laps.  Last year we passed a pass rushing DT that is a huge need in this D for a TE after signing a bunch in free agency.  He forced the issue opposed to taking what fell to them as it wasnt expected that Oliver was going to be there.  If you take two years of data and use that to force who you pick in round 1, thats poor management.  Its the same thing he has done with Davis, Tabor, Decker even.  You have to go BPA to get the best players.  When you start forcing positions, thats when you reach and end up with lesser talents.  This was the first year I believe we haven't done that.  But it may be too late.  We can't win championships if all of our 1st and 2nd round picks turn out ok and are just fill a position.  

This is kind of where I think he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.  First, let me say I hated the Hock pick.  Actually, hates not a strong enough word.  However, if he feels like this is an elite talent, or Okudah this year is an elite talent then don't trade for more picks because you are going to get those Ok at their position types (See Decker).  If he keeps the picks, like he does, than he doesn't get all the extra picks for those "Ok" position guys.  There really is no win for him. 

Also, I kind of like this draft, but I'm really not sold on this off season. So, I'm in no way defending Quinn.  I just don't know how he gets us out of this mess that's been going on for 50+ years.

1 hour ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Side note: can we talk about that 65% statistic that ESPN was pushing during the draft? I hate that statistic. Rounds 3-7 comprise 71% of the draft, and mid-late round picks are easier to obtain than early picks, so your team should absolutely be made of mostly 3-7 round players. Factor in UDFAs (which that stat also included) and you've got, in my opinion, a pretty obvious statement.

Just my opinion. I could be wrong on that.

I think what I'm looking at is Mayhew didn't keep much past the third round or second for that matter.  At least that's what it seems like to me.  So Quinn's first job is to replace all that talent that is lacking from the poor job the previous regimes have done. Yes, they had 53 men suit up, but they were either grossly overpaid or should have been on the practice squad. So, let's say you get 6 picks to replace that 65% of your roster from rounds 3-7 each year. 65% which is 34-35 positions.  That's 5 years worth of drafts.  Now I know free agency plays a part in this, and I know there is some talent already on the team, but you also have to figure in players out of position, overpaid players, players that suck.  Now if you go for more picks in the early rounds you have two issues, one finding a trade partner and two finding elite talent at a lower position. Heck of a choice to make.

So, just in terms of depth, which is what Quinn first said he needed to focus on when he got here, he has a huge hill to climb.  Now if we replace Quinn, this is even a bigger issue because you will have to start it all over again. 

These are just some thoughts I have.

[LionArkie]

Personally, I think Quinn moves around 2-7 rather well.  He just doesn't move in the first, nor do I think he really can afford too at this point in time.

[Sllim Pickens]

3 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

This is kind of where I think he's damned if he does and damned if he doesn't.  First, let me say I hated the Hock pick.  Actually, hates not a strong enough word.  However, if he feels like this is an elite talent, or Okudah this year is an elite talent then don't trade for more picks because you are going to get those Ok at their position types (See Decker).  If he keeps the picks, like he does, than he doesn't get all the extra picks for those "Ok" position guys.  There really is no win for him. 

Also, I kind of like this draft, but I'm really not sold on this off season. So, I'm in no way defending Quinn.  I just don't know how he gets us out of this mess that's been going on for 50+ years.

 

I agree on the off-season as a whole.  I am not overly excited but I liked the draft.  

However, I am not saying that he needs to absolutely trade picks to get the most guys, but if you do hold onto your picks, you need to shoot for the stars.  Drafting Decker was ok, he has been a league average LT for us.  I think Ragnow has been a good pick but he again was forced to pick a C high because of need and lack of free agent attention.  Maybe Ragnow was the right pick, but I find it hard to believe that Ragnow and Tavai were BPA, and not just trying to force a player to fill a hole.  Its the same concept that landed us Ebron over Donald or OBJ.  Even with Okudah, who happened to be BPA, it was to fill a need.  I think he just got lucky and a need was met with BPA.  However I dont think anyone would have been too upset had we moved down to 7 and grabbed Simmons/Brown and had an extra 2nd and 3rd to play with. And it doesnt have to be every pick, but at some point, use your draft capital to make more.  Thats what has kept the Patriots on top, they trade their first for multiple 2nd/3rds every year.  Adding two chances for an impact player instead of one helps your odds and if the other turns out to be just ok, then its still a great move.  

[Sllim Pickens]

9 minutes ago, LionArkie said:

Personally, I think Quinn moves around 2-7 rather well.  He just doesn't move in the first, nor do I think he really can afford too at this point in time.

He has moved up a couple times, but until this year, never moved down in those rounds.  

[LionArkie]

9 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

He has moved up a couple times, but until this year, never moved down in those rounds.  

really?  I thought he generally traded quite a bit in the 3-7 range. Maybe I'm just not remembering correctly.  I am getting old after all.