Black Sails Mafia (S1): Day 5

[MWil23]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

I guess it's possible that Naz backed up Josh's claim not because they're allied, but because if Naz is scum, then he knows Josh won't counterclaim him.  So claiming he got that result is something he won't be called on.

 

Just now, Daniel said:

And he was the last to claim.  No one's night abilities fingered him, so it was a safe play.

 

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

Odds Naz is scum separate from Josh and wanted to send a signal to the other group that they can win together while "clearing" one another?

 

[MWil23]

@bcb1213 here's why I think it's Josh and why I've held out this long...

I NO SUBMITTED a move last night to see who would try to use me for a clear.

Sorry Josh

:)

[Daniel]

OK, this is a combo of two that makes sense.

@bcb1213 did you say how you confirmed that Josh wasn't a killer, or was it just because you roleblocked him?

[MWil23]

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

@bcb1213 here's why I think it's Josh and why I've held out this long...

I NO SUBMITTED a move last night to see who would try to use me for a clear.

Sorry Josh

@bcb1213 to be frank, I was specifically scared of the REDIRECT.

Given that you wanted me to clear your block, that means it can't be you.

Now, given what we know about me, Forge, and KSJ, and that Nazgul corroborated Josh's story, that SHOULD make those two scum, albeit it's not a certainty.

Since you wouldn't ask me to confirm that I was blocked unless you knew I was blocked and Josh confirmed you went to me, therefore cementing you as the blocker, unless you two are aligned (which you aren't because that's beyond dumb), that makes him the redirect.

[MWil23]

Just now, MWil23 said:

@bcb1213 to be frank, I was specifically scared of the REDIRECT.

Given that you wanted me to clear your block, that means it can't be you.

Now, given what we know about me, Forge, and KSJ, and that Nazgul corroborated Josh's story, that SHOULD make those two scum, albeit it's not a certainty.

Since you wouldn't ask me to confirm that I was blocked unless you knew I was blocked and Josh confirmed you went to me, therefore cementing you as the blocker, unless you two are aligned (which you aren't because that's beyond dumb), that makes him the redirect.

@Forge we trained Joshstrasauras well. I'm proud of him.

[MWil23]

Granted, it's POSSIBLE that Josh is actually the tracker AND village idiot (LOL, odds aren't great) who gets some type of a bonus for fulfilling his idiocy, (the same exact bonus as a tracker, but not N2 because he didn't fulfill it) when that's not a true VI (not even close), and that Daniel lied about something that couldn't be confirmed, got lucky on the flip of Blue (possible), and the ratio just seems to be working out for him since he had inside knowledge, but given that Blue flipped Governor and Matts flipped Town and adamantly denied it, that means Blue pardoned Daniel.

Josh

Naz

KSJ

If Josh flips green, go KSJ tomorrow. If he's read, then go Naz.

[MWil23]

Here's what I'm BETTING:

Josh: Red Scum, Pickle gave him that claim in scum chat

Nazgul: Green scum, Rack told him to claim (something Naz rarely if ever does) and wait last, signaling to Josh that they could win together

KSJ: Green Godfather, happy the Chiefs are probably going to repeat again in 2020

[MWil23]

23 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

@bcb1213 here's why I think it's Josh and why I've held out this long...

I NO SUBMITTED a move last night to see who would try to use me for a clear.

Sorry Josh

Fine, I'll actually tell the truth...

I'm out of kills guys. Once I use(d) a day kill, that's it.

@Forge remember my hypothetical to you and Blue about the kill every night vs. using a day kill? I kinda telegraphed that.

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

Granted, it's POSSIBLE that Josh is actually the tracker AND village idiot (LOL, odds aren't great) who gets some type of a bonus for fulfilling his idiocy, (the same exact bonus as a tracker, but not N2 because he didn't fulfill it) when that's not a true VI (not even close), and that Daniel lied about something that couldn't be confirmed, got lucky on the flip of Blue (possible), and the ratio just seems to be working out for him since he had inside knowledge, but given that Blue flipped Governor and Matts flipped Town and adamantly denied it, that means Blue pardoned Daniel.

Josh

Naz

KSJ

If Josh flips green, go KSJ tomorrow. If he's read, then go Naz.

So, since bcb says he saw that Josh isn't a killer, so we want to consider Naz instead?

We've got time.

[MWil23]

2 minutes ago, Daniel said:

So, since bcb says he saw that Josh isn't a killer, so we want to consider Naz instead?

We've got time.

Yes and No...if Josh is the redirect, he could be just as dangerous, albeit Naz would also be fine. If Naz flips green, we get a guarantee with KSJ.

Since there were 2 kill attempts last night, that means that it’s not necessarily a “killer” but would likely be a faction kill to be carried out. 

[Daniel]

3 minutes ago, MWil23 said:

Yes and No...if Josh is the redirect, he could be just as dangerous, albeit Naz would also be fine. If Naz flips green, we get a guarantee with KSJ.

Since there were 2 kill attempts last night, that means that it’s not necessarily a “killer” but would likely be a faction kill to be carried out. 

Makes sense.  Any reason for me not to go ahead and vote Josh then?  Getting one ahead of the hammer is borderline final.

[MWil23]

We also have the possibility that Squire was scum and janitored, but I find that unlikely with the multiple kills flying around to go with a GF in KSJ.

[MWil23]

Just now, Daniel said:

Makes sense.  Any reason for me not to go ahead and vote Josh then?  Getting one ahead of the hammer is borderline final.

I’m unfortunately at the point where I’m now getting ready for a Friday night game and will be MIA for most of the rest of the night. I’m good with either KSJ or Naz. It’s possible I’m making this too simple, but I’m willing to let it ride and I’ll take my loss like a man in postgame.

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

We also have the possibility that Squire was scum and janitored, but I find that unlikely with the multiple kills flying around to go with a GF in KSJ.

I keep forgetting about squire.

If he's scum, he'd have to be Mutiny.  Or else there'd be no reason we couldn't lynch KSJ.

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, MWil23 said:

I’m unfortunately at the point where I’m now getting ready for a Friday night game and will be MIA for most of the rest of the night. I’m good with either KSJ or Naz. It’s possible I’m making this too simple, but I’m willing to let it ride and I’ll take my loss like a man in postgame.

I've got 45 minutes before my last meeting of the day, and I'll be out til after dinner after that.

I'll give it til 3, then I'll vote Josh if nothing compelling comes up.