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Better rookie season: Justin Herbert or Andrew Luck?


Apparition

stats guy or wins guy?  

12 members have voted

  1. 1. stats guy or wins guy?

    • Herbert
      9
    • Luck
      3


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Looking at just the numbers, Herbert is clearly superior, having thrown for over 300 yards per game, with 23 TDs to just 7 picks. Luck threw 18 picks and completed just 54% of his passes as a rookie.

However, Luck went 11-5 as a starter for a team that had been 2-14 the previous year. The Colts were 9-1 in one-score games, and Luck posted 7 game-winning drives and 4 fourth-quarter comebacks, while Herbert has yet to post one of either.. 

Their teams were statistically similar otherwise, with the Chargers allowing about a field goal more per game but also ranking better in points allowed per drive (understandable given how scoring has gone up league-wide in the 8 intervening years), and both teams having mediocre running games and porous run defenses. I'd also say Anthony Lynn versus Chuck Pagano is a wash. 

So yeah, this is another stats versus wins debate.

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I love me some Andrew Luck, but this has to be Herbert

Herbert is smoking Luck's rookie season in all statistical categories

Luck definitely had a ton of clutch, but there are too many factors to just look at W/L for a rookie QB. I don't have a deep dive on Herbert's 4th Qs, but my anecdotal memory (don't rely on this), doesn't feel like him racking up numbers and going stale in the final drives. I'm remembering several questionable coaching calls on 4th downs, etc. as well as defensive letdowns that jumped out in my mind as being more responsible for the losses.

also... "Anthony Lynn = Chuck Pagano" feels incredibly disrespectful to Chuck Pagano

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Yep this has to be Herbert. He is the most impressive non running rookie QB i've seen so far. 
And Lynn probably did cost the team 2-3 wins this year already. 
Wins are great but it's still a team's sport. I think Herbert is having the better individual season

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