Was Brandon Scherff Worth the #5 Overall Pick?

[turtle28]

31 minutes ago, Brian23 said:

 

Seems like he’s a  boss. I’d still rather have Leonard Williams but it’s nice to have an all pro caliber RG also. I truly believe if he continues to play at the current level that he’ll be a Hall of Fame player.

[turtle28]

2 hours ago, MKnight82 said:

I don't really understand why saying I'd rather have a pro bowl DE than a pro bowl Guard is so controversial.  Seems obvious to me. 

It’s obvious to me too. I’d definitely rather have a pro bowl DE who’s capable of getting 5 to 10 sacks a year from a 3-4 DE or 4-3 DT position than an all pro OG. 

I love Scherff, nothing  wrong with him at all but as you’ve said over and over positional value points to Williams over Scherff and we needed a guy like Williams as much or more than a new RG, especially at #5. This, and Williams was the better prospect.

[turtle28]

1 hour ago, THESKINSFAN21 said:

Just like the 1 sack in the last 13 games not meaning the world,PFF ranks Williams as an average Defensive lineman while Scherff is rated a high quality guard. I'm not saying Williams stinks,but he's getting more hype because of his college play/first half of his rookie season than his play on the field.

He had 7 sacks last year in his second year, 3 sacks his rookie year and sacks aren’t the be all end all when evaluating a DT/3-4 DE. You have to evaluate how they push the pocketbook inside and how well they play the run.

mccloughan admitted in an interview on NFL Sirius that he’s always had trouble evaluating interior DL. He said it was the hardest position for him to evaluate because they don’t make a lot of splash plays on film and they don’t put up a lot of stats but just because they don’t doesn’t mean they aren’t having a big impact on the game, especially if they are being asked to two-gap as a 3-4 DE like Williams is being asked to do. I’m sure he’s also drawing a lot of double teams.

A great example is Jonathan Allen. Allen has been rushing and purposely taking on double teams - occupying the LG & C - on every rush when we are in the nickle which frees up the rest of our DL/OLBs to go one on One and this has really helped Ioannidis. It’s shows up like a sore thumb on Film. Ioannidis has been a boss but he’s been helped out by what Allen is doing occupying the LG & C on every rush.

Williams was the better prospect with the higher upside and should have been the selection. 

I love Scherff and what he’s developed into  but as Mknight said, Williams was the better prospect, his position value was higher and I’d take a pro bowl DE over a pro bowl OG every single day.

[turtle28]

 

[Thaiphoon]

11 hours ago, Slateman said:

 

You don't take a guard at 5 overall. Ever. Not even if you KNOW he's going to be a hall of famer. No guard is worth the number 5 overall pick in the draft.

A Hall of Fame Guard is most definitely worth a #5 pick. To me that's not even debatable.

[Slateman]

1 minute ago, Thaiphoon said:

A Hall of Fame Guard is most definitely worth a #5 pick. To me that's not even debatable.

No. Just ... No. 

[Thaiphoon]

5 minutes ago, Slateman said:

No. Just ... No. 

You can disagree all you want. And I understand why.

But even at the top 5 or even top 10 of the draft, its a crapshoot as to which picks are gonna pan out.

If you KNOW a player is going to have a HoF career for you, that surety is worth that pick. Again, we can disagree whether it was worth it now. Right now, I agree that I'd rather have had Williams. But if Williams develops into a good/great player...but not HoF type of player...and Scherff develops into a HoF Guard? Yeah, then its worth it to me.

[Slateman]

Just now, Thaiphoon said:

You can disagree all you want. But even at the top 5 or even top 10 of the draft, its a crapshoot as to which picks are gonna pan out.

If you KNOW a player is going to have a HoF career for you, that surety is worth that pick. Again, we can disagree whether it was worth it now. Right now, I agree that I'd rather have had Williams. But if Williams develops into a good/great player...but not HoF type of player...and Scherff develops into a HoF Guard? Yeah, then its worth it to me.

There are a plethora of good, impact players available at number 5. A good linebacker, defensive lineman, receiver, or DB will be orders of magnitude more valuable than a HoF guard

[MKnight82]

15 minutes ago, Thaiphoon said:

A Hall of Fame Guard is most definitely worth a #5 pick. To me that's not even debatable.

You can't ever know if that guy is going to be a HOFer though.  The positional value plus the unknown means you never take a guard at 5.

[Thaiphoon]

Just now, Slateman said:

There are a plethora of good, impact players available at number 5. A good linebacker, defensive lineman, receiver, or DB will be orders of magnitude more valuable than a HoF guard

Again...for how many years?

Your scenario was that going into the draft that I KNOW that Scherff will be a HoF Guard. You said nothing about a crystal ball about any other position. 

I have no surety that that LB...that DL...that WR...that DB is going to:

A) Be able to play at a high level

B) Stay healthy so he can be able to play

C) Play long enough to lock down that position so I can go elsewhere in my future drafts

 

But if I KNOW that the Guard is going to be a HoF Guard for my team, that means he's got that position locked down and will not only be elite in the running game but also pass blocking. Which is pretty darned important as many good/great QBs have had their careers cut short because of poor OL play. 

It also lets me focus my draft picks on a LB, DL, WR, DB in the first rounds of the next 9 drafts (assuming a 10 year career for the Guard).

Again, I'm not talking a HoF Guard vs a HoF LB. I'm talking the surety of having a HoF Guard vs. the possibility of having a "good" LB or Dl or etc...

Finally, I completely agree on the positional importance of some positions over others. The caveat here is the HoF calibre player and the crystal ball to know that I'm not wasting that pick on a Jamarcus Russell type player.

That's worth something to me. And to me its worth #5. We can disagree. And I definitely see your point. I just disagree

 

 

[Thaiphoon]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

You can't ever know if that guy is going to be a HOFer though.  The positional value plus the unknown means you never take a guard at 5.

Yes. But his premise was that even IF you knew it was going to be a HoF Guard, you don't take it at #5.

My point is that we won't really know until they both have played more years in this league as to which one was truly the better pick. 

Right now, I'd rather have Williams. But if Scherff plays longer and becomes more dominant and is a HoF Guard and Williams is just a good player, the scale tips to Scherff (for me).

[MKnight82]

Just now, Thaiphoon said:

Yes. But his premise was that even IF you knew it was going to be a HoF Guard, you don't take it at #5.

My point is that we won't really know until they both have played more years in this league as to which one was truly the better pick. 

Right now, I'd rather have Williams. But if Scherff plays longer and becomes more dominant and is a HoF Guard and Williams is just a good player, the scale tips to Scherff (for me).

Well I mean I'm already looking at that draft and seeing all the land mines we avoided.  But at the time with the information we had im pretty sure that wasn't the right pick.

[Thaiphoon]

Just now, MKnight82 said:

Well I mean I'm already looking at that draft and seeing all the land mines we avoided.  But at the time with the information we had im pretty sure that wasn't the right pick.

Noted. And I agree (right now). I reserve the right to change my mind later.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[turtle28]