Likelihoods in the Hood

[Brit Pack]

These following 19 plyers I believe will most certainly be gone by pick 29:

QBs: Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, Lance, Jones (5)

WRs:  Chase, Smith, Waddle (3)

OLs: Sewell, Vera-Tucker, Slater, Darisaw (4)

TE: Pitts (1)

ILB & OLB: Paye, Parsons, JOK (3)

CB: Horn, Surtain, Farley (3)

So we’ll most likely be picking out this pool of 14 players in the first round, with any 9 of them taken before our pick:

WRs: Bateman (RAS 8.04), Marshall (9.77)

OTs: Leatherwood (RAS 9.68), Cosmi (9.99), Jenkins (9.74), Radunz (9.28)

DL: Barmore (RAS 8.22)

ILB & OLB: Collins (RAS8.73), Philips (RAS 9.87), Oweh (RAS 9.92), Azeez (RAS 8.17)

CB: Newsome (RAS 9.66)

S: Holland (RAS 9.54), Moehrig (RAS 7.36)

Out of this pool the only players I would stay at 29 and be happy to pick are: Newsome, Bateman and maybe Cosmi.

If they are gone then a trade down to the top of the second is a preference. Here you would have possibly some of the aforementioned names remaining and it also opens up to the following group of players:

WRs: E.Moore (RAS 8.68), R.Moore (RAS 9.33), Toney (RAS 9.00)

OLs: Humphrey (RAS 10.00), Dickerson, Eichenberg (RAS 8.56), Meinerz  (RAS 9.98), Christensen (RAS 9.84), Little (RAS 8.9), Jalen Mayfield (RAS 4.89)

CBs: Samuel (RAS7.46), T.Campell (RAS 7.52), Stokes (RAS 9.37), A.Robinson (RAS 8.37), Adebo (RAS9.55)

If we aren’t getting Newsome I would be shocked if our first pick is not an OT and our second pick is not a CB. That is where the value really lies when linking it to our need. Going CB or any other positon in the first and OT in the second is harder to get the value/quality.

Having said all this I’m betting we take a Safety like Holland at 29!

[R T]

I posted a very similar posting last week on page 75 of the 2021 NFL Draft thread, only I had 23 likely gone. I believe Bateman, Jenkins and Newsome have a strong likelihood of being gone by 29. 

[Joe]

I think you have to consider the needs of the 7 or 8 teams ahead of us and then consider a wild card player being selected out of nowhere that may have had a 2nd round grade on him or a 1st round grade with a major red flag(ie: injury); especially from picks 15-20. I'm not going to venture who those players will be, but in regards to who we're most likely to select if we go OT first, I think we're left with Cosmi, Radunz, and Leatherwood. Vera-Tucker keeps heading up the boards without pushing another player at that position down and his greatest asset is his versatility. 

Alex Leatherwood will drop like a rock in this class. He showed no improvement over his 2019 tape and some feel as if he might have even regressed a little. 

I love Radunz, but I think he'll drop a bit in the 2nd round as well with Leatherwood going first simply because of the pedigree.

Cosmi is a bit of a wild card because scouts love his potential and athleticism, but he's one of these guys that people think will be a better pro than a college player; that should be cause for concern because he's not plug-n-play.

 

Ergo, if we're that infatuated with Jenkins and/or Slater I could see one of them being the player who Gutey would trade up to get. Of course, the problem is we're trading up from 29 to probably pick 18 or 19 given that the Bears pick at 20. Does Miami or does Washington play ball; Indy is bound to go OT at 21. Then you look at NYJ and Jax both of which are hard up for talent along the OL. On the other hand, do we stay pat at 29 and hope Greg Newsome II is sitting there or do we trade up a few spots for him and roll the dice with whomever is left in the 2nd round? I think we'll have our answer on what direction we need to go after pick 17 and fortunately, we have plenty of Day 3 ammo to move up in the 2nd.

[VegasDan]

I have systematically gone through all the prospects and have narrowed down the possible players that Gute may pick at #29 to 72 players.

 

Is it just me or is there a lot of similarily graded players; needs at several positions; lack of combine data; a missing season of real college football development; and a wider than normal array of opinions by the scouting media on most players.

 

 

[cannondale]

Herman just put out a video regarding this very subject. He narrows it down pretty well and ends up with his final 3 at #29.  For me, it's all about clicking on a bunch of different podcasts, videos and mocks and simply becoming familiar with the names involved. I think the age thing on OL can be stretched to 23 just due to the nature of the position. Not a ton of OL declare early for the draft. I also wonder about Safety, but only if it fulfills the Star role. Personally, I'm not as high on Cosmi, Leatherwood and Eichenberg as he is. He might be on to something with Adebo.

 

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by cannondale

[NFLGURU]

Good thread. I think Gute is going up in rd 1 or 2.  I'd be shocked if he didn't.   Maybe up to the 21-25 range.  If he doesn't move up in the first, definitely the second.  With 10 picks to play with, I dont think he'll sit tight early.  

[craig]

1 hour ago, R T said:

I posted a very similar posting last week on page 75 of the 2021 NFL Draft thread, only I had 23 likely gone. I believe Bateman, Jenkins and Newsome have a strong likelihood of being gone by 29. 

I'm hesitant.  You may well be right.  But I wonder how coherent teams lists would be?  How likely is it that Green Bay's top-23 syncs very closely with those of the other teams?  

I think there's a decent chance that one (if not more) of their top-23 will still be there at 29?  We just evaluate guys differently from other teams.  "We had this guy among our top 23 players, so we're so excited to get him, we think he's great value at this pick".... 

Certainly risk that if one of the Packers' top-23 guys IS there at 29, that Gute's scouts overvalued him, rather than that Gute's guys were right and the rest of the league was wrong.   

Also a chance that even if one of Gute's 23 doesn't make it to 29, that Gute could get one by moving up only a small number of spots, perhaps at a price that's acceptable?  

[R T]

5 minutes ago, craig said:

I'm hesitant.  You may well be right.  But I wonder how coherent teams lists would be?  How likely is it that Green Bay's top-23 syncs very closely with those of the other teams?  

I think there's a decent chance that one (if not more) of their top-23 will still be there at 29?  We just evaluate guys differently from other teams.  "We had this guy among our top 23 players, so we're so excited to get him, we think he's great value at this pick".... 

Certainly risk that if one of the Packers' top-23 guys IS there at 29, that Gute's scouts overvalued him, rather than that Gute's guys were right and the rest of the league was wrong.   

Also a chance that even if one of Gute's 23 doesn't make it to 29, that Gute could get one by moving up only a small number of spots, perhaps at a price that's acceptable?  

I'm not claiming that is Gutes top 23, just 23 players I thought there was a very strong likelihood of being gone and some of those 23 the Packers interest is probably very low with.