Could we have back to back DROY?

[MKnight82]

The case for Jamin Davis to be a front runner for DROY is a strong one.  Let's break it down:

1. Barring injury, he's going to get a lot of snaps - The first thing Davis will need is the opportunity to make plays, or basically he needs to be on the field.  I think all of us would agree the majority of our linebackers are pretty mediocre, so Davis should start Day 1 at one of the spots. I also think with his speed that he will be staying on the field for 3rd downs.  That means he should be getting a lot of the snaps given to linebackers.  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/was/2020-snap-counts.htm 

Last year the top 2 linebackers in WFT snap counts was Jon Bostic (966 snaps) and Cole Holcomb (555 snaps). Holcomb though missed 6 games due to injury, so if you apply his average snaps per game it would be more like 888 snaps.  I think its fair to say Davis could end up between 800-1000 snaps in his rookie season.  Chase Young won ROTY last year playing 770 snaps. 

2. Historically First Round picks are the frontrunners for DROY - this is the list of previous DROY winners: 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/awards/ap-defensive-rookie-of-the-year-award.htm 

Of those names, only 3 of the last 20 DROY winners weren't first round picks (Darius Leonard - 36th overall, Demeco Ryans - 33rd overall, Kendrell Bell - 39th overall) and those 3 were all high 2nd round picks. Also of note, 10 of those 20 were linebackers, although those were mostly from 2000-2010 and it has shifted more towards pass rushers as of late. 

3. His competition could be weak - this was known as a historically weak first round for defensive prospects.  His biggest competition in this class should be CB Jaycee Horn, CB Patrick Surtain, LB Micah Parsons, LB Zaven Collins, DE Jaelan Phillips, DL Kwity Paye, & CB Greg Newsome.  I'm not sure if Payton Turner, Greg Rousseau, Oweh or Joe Tryon will start as rookies.  The DBs will have an uphill battle for DROY because they generally don't accumulate as many stats, but its not impossible as some DBs have won the award recently.  His biggest competition in this list will probably be Parsons, Collins and Phillips.

4. Our Dline should open him up to make plays - This is where he's going to have an advantage on most of his competition.  Our dline should feast this year, especially with Ioaniddis coming back. None of these other guys will be surrounded by as much talent as Davis.  

 

So what do you guys think?  Jamis Davis for DROY?

 

[e16bball]

 

[e16bball]

I think your analysis is right on. 

Traditionally, DBs have not won the award. As you mentioned, that has been changing in recent years, with two winners in the last six years — but this has historically been a best front 7 player award.

Marcus Peters won it in 2015, a year when there were really no traditional LBs even remotely worthy of consideration. The only other vote-getters were another DB in Ronald Darby (of all people) and Leonard Williams. Peters led the league with 8 INTs, 2 of which were returned for TDs, and also in pass breakups, playing for one of the league’s best teams. He took down 45 of 50 votes. 

Then Marshon Lattimore won the award in 2017, another year where the front 7 talent was basically non-existent. Again the runner-up was another DB (Tre’Davious White), and the only front 7 player receiving a vote was Reuben Foster (of all people). This was really the first and only time that a DB has won the award for something other than an extraordinary INT total. 

It’s subsequently reverted back to the front 7 for the past three seasons. 

All of which is a long way to say that Jaycee Horn or Patrick Surtain have a better chance of winning now than they probably ever have — but it still probably only happens if the entire 1st round front 7 class underwhelms. Given that the DL class was remarkably weak this year, that means the ball is probably in the court of Micah Parsons, Zaven Collins, and Jamin Davis. Those three have to be the odds-on favorites.

[ripsean21]

Honestly I’m not trying to get my hopes up I’m just trying to enjoy the fact they enjoy similar players I enjoy but I expect this guy to be that dude. I think he’s very capable and I think behind this front this guy could just be the next great thing at that spot. This guy has what it takes to do things that Devin white does behind that front. The best thing a great LB needs is a good DL. Jamin has it and I think baring injury this guys going to have a special career here. And this is just the start.

[turtle28]

Jamin’s main competition is going to be Micah Parsons IMO. Given that Micah plays for the Cowboys & if they have a good year I’m afraid Parsons will win it.

Jamin definitely has a good shot though.

I could see Jamin getting 125 tackles, 3 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 5 FFs, 6 PDs and 3 ints 

Edited May 4, 2021 by turtle28

[ripsean21]

3 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Jamin’s main competition is going to be Micah Parsons IMO. Given that he plays foe the Cowboys & if they have a good year I’m afraid Parsons will win it.

Jamin definitely has a good shot though.

I could see Jamin getting 125 tackles, 3 sacks, 7 tackles for loss, 5 FFs, 6 PDs and 3 ints 

I actually think this could be neck and neck. Dallas is doing something similar just in a different way. They have special LB’s and a okay DL. I think we have dogs on the Line and we have a special talent in Jamin with guys that can compliment his game well. I think the biggest difference in these two is coverage ability Jamin has and the fact he should be cleaner throughout the game even when Settle and the Greek and sub situations. I think this defense is going to be special. Believe it or not I was more excited to get Jamin then I would have with Parsons. I feel like the guys we have actually do well stunting gaps and our DL helps them blitz to the QB. I feel like Jamin allows us to get more creative because he is actually really good in coverage and can blitz. I feel like he and Kam Curl are going to wreak havoc this year on TE’s and now we have two really Uber talented guys that we can just do a variety of different fronts

[turtle28]

17 minutes ago, ripsean21 said:

I actually think this could be neck and neck. Dallas is doing something similar just in a different way. They have special LB’s and a okay DL. I think we have dogs on the Line and we have a special talent in Jamin with guys that can compliment his game well. I think the biggest difference in these two is coverage ability Jamin has and the fact he should be cleaner throughout the game even when Settle and the Greek and sub situations. I think this defense is going to be special. Believe it or not I was more excited to get Jamin then I would have with Parsons. I feel like the guys we have actually do well stunting gaps and our DL helps them blitz to the QB. I feel like Jamin allows us to get more creative because he is actually really good in coverage and can blitz. I feel like he and Kam Curl are going to wreak havoc this year on TE’s and now we have two really Uber talented guys that we can just do a variety of different fronts

Sadly, the biggest difference is one player was drafted higher, played at Penn State & plays for the Cowboys. If they have similar stats & each have a few game changing plays I feel it would go to Micah bc he plays for the Cowboys. I hope I’m wrong but we all know how it is, they’re the media darlings even if they haven’t earned it the last 25 years.

[ripsean21]

21 minutes ago, turtle28 said:

Sadly, the biggest difference is one player was drafted higher, played at Penn State & plays for the Cowboys. If they have similar stats & each have a few game changing plays I feel it would go to Micah bc he plays for the Cowboys. I hope I’m wrong but we all know how it is, they’re the media darlings even if they haven’t earned it the last 25 years.

I get that. As long as he’s in the hunt I’m completely happy

[naptownskinsfan]

I don't see Davis unseating Bostic until midway through the season.  He's a raw kid, who is going to need some coaching at the next level.  So I am not banking on this award for Davis.  That being said, the competition being weak is a good point, and in that scenario, could work in his favor, but I still put odds against it. 

[noptov52]

Surtain is a contender, because that Broncos D should be strong and have a solid pass rush.  With the ball coming out hot, Surtain will some shots at making splash plays that help cement a DROY campaign.

That said, I think Davis has the inside track.  With our d-line keeping him clean, he should be a tackling machine and, like Surtain, get a chance to make some plays in coverage on panic throws.