Will Jimmy Graham Be Released?

[Heinz D.]

41 minutes ago, soulman said:

Ertz is still under contract in Philly so that would have to be a trade deal unless they release him which is unlikely.

Is it? I thought people were talking like Ertz might be cut? 

[soulman]

12 minutes ago, Heinz D. said:

Is it? I thought people were talking like Ertz might be cut? 

Ertz was seen as a prime candidate for a trade heading into the offseason and reports in March indicated one was close, but nothing happened. Ertz was said to be “increasingly impatient” about a move a short time later and his absence from the team’s work indicates his desire to move on has not changed.

The Eagles don’t seem to be in a hurry, however. General Manager Howie Roseman said after the draft that Ertz is “a good player, a good person and he’s under contract” while saying he’d do what’s best for the Eagles.

I'd say it may be another Aaron Rodger type deal where Ertz wants out but Roseman isn't gonna just give in and release him without trying whatever he can to get value for him.

I believe it would be best to consider that the only way we get Zach Ertz is to trade for him and pick up his $8.5 mil 2021 salary or sign him to an extension which would mean another high dollar deal for a TE who'll be 32 years old next year.

Obviously if we could sign him for 3 years as a FA at a reasonable cost that might be preferable to keeping Graham but I gotta be honest and say I don't see it happening.  Not after having spent our top pick in 2020 on Kmet.

[WindyCity]

The reason I think this came up is that a Philly reporter said he might be cut after June 1st. He isn’t at OTAs and there doesn’t seem to be any movement between the 2 sides.

[WindyCity]

3 hours ago, soulman said:

 

Jeezus Windy 50 catches for 456 yards on 76 targets and 8 TDs is hardly "sitting on the bench most of the game".

Mooney only had 11 more catches and half as many TDs so I'd say JG produced what he was paid to produce.

 

Nelson would be a nice addition but is he anywhere near as affordable as Trufant was?  He's coming off a deal that paid him $8.5 mil APY and may still be unsigned because he's looking for that much or more and a longer term deal.  Pitt released him for cap reasons just as we did with Fuller.  Seems to me we're looking for less costly help at CB coming from our draftees and FA signings not a pricey FA.

Moses is a RT.  We already have Ifedi signed to play RT and a another RT in Wilkinson plus a rookie in Borom.

Ertz is still under contract in Philly so that would have to be a trade deal unless they release him which is unlikely.

By the end of the season he had lost much of his playing time to Kmet. He is no longer the guy who plays in single TE sets.

Based on usage from last season the 2 TE played about 25% of snaps.

His 76/50/450 days ended about half way through last season.

[soulman]

Chicago Bears: 3 tight ends who could replace Jimmy Graham

https://beargoggleson.com/2021/05/23/chicago-bears-free-agency-rumors-replace-jimmy-graham/?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email

The Chicago Bears could sign Tyler Eifert

Why not bring in a guy who is already familiar with both Bill Lazor and Andy Dalton. Should Dalton get the starting nod in Week 1 as I suspect he will, having Tyler Eifert to throw to could make his life all that much easier.

While in Cincinnati, Eifert proved to be one of the better pass-catching tight ends in the NFL. His only downfall has been his injuries. The Jaguars took a chance on him last year and he put together a decent season all things considered.

Eifert played in 15 games for the Jaguars last season and started in four. He saw 60 targets and caught 36 of them for 349 yards and two touchdowns. His touchdown numbers are a concern as Jimmy Graham caught eight of them for Chicago last season. However, we need to remember just how poorly the Jaguars played in 2020. This is why they had the first overall pick and why they drafted Clemson standout, Trevor Lawrence.

The situation at tight end in Chicago this year is already different than last year. Last year, Ryan Pace and Matt Nagy revamped the tight end room by signing Graham and drafting Cole Kmet. Kmet saw his role expand as the season progressed and is now the starter. Pairing the Kmet with fellow, former Notre Dame alumn, Tyler Eifert could make for a solid pairing in 2021. The Bears should be able to sign Eifert to a one or two-year deal worth no more than $5 million in AAV.

 

The Chicago Bears could sign Richard Rodgers

Bears fans should be familiar with the name Richard Rodgers. Not that he really accomplished much throughout his NFL career, but because he was once the starting tight end for the Green Bay Packers.

Rodgers’ best season came in 2015 when he caught 58 of 85 targets for 510 yards and eight touchdowns. Rodgers was only 23 at the time and had one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game throwing to him. That said, he has always maintained a solid catch rate percentage with last year being his best at 77.4%.

Rodgers is now 29 years old and we know exactly what he is in this league — a veteran backup who can make a play here and there when needed. Guess what, that is exactly what the Chicago Bears would need should Jimmy Graham be given his pink slip before the season starts.

During his time with the Eagles last year, Rodgers caught 24 of his 31 targets for 345 yards and two touchdowns. He saw some time as the TE2 with Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz both dealing with injuries throughout the season. However, he was essentially the TE3 on the team, but his ability to make plays when needed is exactly why I like him on this list of guys to consider.

 

The Chicago Bears could sign Jesse James

Why not bring in another tight end from a former NFC North rival? Should Richard Rodgers not fit the bill, the Chicago Bears could turn their attention to signing Jesse James instead. James, like Rodgers, is a proven veteran who can handle the load here and there if needed. He is not and never will be a top tight end in the league, but remember, we are looking for value and backup production here as we hope Cole Kmet takes the big jump needed this season.

Jesse James was at one point a main focal point in the Pittsburgh Steelers offense. In 2016 and 2017, James saw 60 and 63 targets. He caught over 65% of those targets for a season average of 355 yards and three touchdowns. His targets fell off the following year with only 39 targets, but his efficiency improved by grabbing 76.9% of those targets for 423 yards and two touchdowns. One thing to note that year was his average yards per target spiked to 10.8 despite averaging less than six yards per target every other year.

While with the Lions, James saw just shy of 50% of the team’s offensive snap share. He is coming off a season where he caught two touchdowns and gained only 129 yards receiving. However, if the Bears brought in a player like James, he is going to be more of an in-line tight end who will block more than run routes but can help in the receiving game on occasion. Essentially, think of him as the 2021 Demetrius Harris.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

By the end of the season he had lost much of his playing time to Kmet. He is no longer the guy who plays in single TE sets.

Based on usage from last season the 2 TE played about 25% of snaps.

His 76/50/450 days ended about half way through last season.

I  believe it was expected that Kmet would see more action as the season progressed so that's no surprise.

But what I bold faced is completely untrue.  From game 9 on; 1) 42% of his catches, 2) 46% of his total yardage, 3) Two of his best games, 4) 4 of his 8 TDs.  So he was productive throughout the entire season not sitting on the bench.

See for yourself; https://www.chicagobears.com/team/players-roster/jimmy-graham/

WK	OPP	RESULT	REC	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	ATT	YDS	AVG	LNG	TD	FUM	LOST
17	Packers	L 16 - 35	2	5	2.5	3	0
16	@Jaguars	W 41 - 17	4	69	17.3	30	2
15	@Vikings	W 33 - 27	2	25	12.5	16	0
14	Texans	W 36 - 7	4	23	5.8	12	1
13	Lions	L 30 - 34	0	0			0
12	@Packers	L 25 - 41	3	32	10.7	16	0
10	Vikings	L 13 - 19	0	0			0
9	@Titans	L 17 - 24	6	55	9.2	24	1

 

[WindyCity]

Jimmy has largely beed replaced.

 

 

 

[WindyCity]

Kmet was getting 2/3 of the snaps post bye week.

 

Edited May 23, 2021 by WindyCity

[WindyCity]

Post bye week when Graham was really replaced as the #1 TE he had

15 catches, 154 yards, 3 TDs 

69 yards and 2 TDs came in a blow out of the Jags.

[Heinz D.]

1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

Post bye week when Graham was really replaced as the #1 TE he had

15 catches, 154 yards, 3 TDs 

69 yards and 2 TDs came in a blow out of the Jags.

As you have already said...

[soulman]

3 hours ago, WindyCity said:

Post bye week when Graham was really replaced as the #1 TE he had

15 catches, 154 yards, 3 TDs 

69 yards and 2 TDs came in a blow out of the Jags.

Oh, so you didn't like the stats I posted in response to your post about "half the season" so I included the entire 2nd half of the season and instead you substitute your own?

You know you have this "if the facts don't agree with your views just move the goal posts" deal down pretty well.  Been studying certain politicians lately or have you been doing this like forever?   Don't bother to answer.  I already know.

And.....what difference does it make in what games he had his best stats other than the fact that in those games he scored we won five out of six of them?  That is the objective right?  Score more points, win more games?

The only question Pace and Nagy should be asking themselves is whether or not JG is worth about $1 mil per TD and if not what's an acceptable price?  I'm not saying don't replace him but I am asking how that scoring will be replaced, by who, and at what cost since if they release JG it seems to me they'll need to sign another TE to replace him.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, Heinz D. said:

As you have already said...

Looks like someone moved New Jersey to the Middle East.

[WindyCity]

37 minutes ago, soulman said:

Oh, so you didn't like the stats I posted in response to your post about "half the season" so I included the entire 2nd half of the season and instead you substitute your own?

You know you have this "if the facts don't agree with your views just move the goal posts" deal down pretty well.  Been studying certain politicians lately or have you been doing this like forever?   Don't bother to answer.  I already know.

And.....what difference does it make in what games he had his best stats other than the fact that in those games he scored we won five out of six of them?  That is the objective right?  Score more points, win more games?

The only question Pace and Nagy should be asking themselves is whether or not JG is worth about $1 mil per TD and if not what's an acceptable price?  I'm not saying don't replace him but I am asking how that scoring will be replaced, by who, and at what cost since if they release JG it seems to me they'll need to sign another TE to replace him.

I used post bye week because that is when his reps got massively cut.

You picked half the season arbitrarily. I went back and found the exact moment he had his reps slashed.

No one is moving the goal posts. But Jimmy’s production in a role he is no longer filling isn’t really relevant.

Post bye week he was drastically reduced in the offense and replaced by Kmet. His production, unsurprisingly, dipped as well.

Moving into 2021 there is no reason to see an increase in his reps from the post bye last season, there is also no reason to see Kmet not filling a similar or more prominent role. 

The original point still stands, do we want to pay 7 million dollars to a guy who is only likely to play 33% or less of the offensive snaps?

That is a lot of money to pay for a guy who has largely been replaced.

Edited May 24, 2021 by WindyCity

[WindyCity]

Jimmy’s role drastically reduced after the bye week.

His production also reduced because of this.

There is not reason to assume his role, reps, usage, will go back to pre 2020 bye week levels.

It is hard to justify paying a guy 7 million who plays 33% of snaps, catches 2.5 passes a game in that reduced role.

[soulman]

8 hours ago, WindyCity said:

By the end of the season he had lost much of his playing time to Kmet. He is no longer the guy who plays in single TE sets.

Based on usage from last season the 2 TE played about 25% of snaps.

His 76/50/450 days ended about half way through last season.

 

2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I used post bye week because that is when his reps got massively cut.

You picked half the season arbitrarily. I went back and found the exact moment he had his reps slashed.

I picked half the season arbitrarily?

No Windy, I picked the final 8 games based upon what you posted.  Eight is on half of sixteen around here.  If one of us chose an arbitrary point from which to make their point agree with their contentions I think that someone is you.  I chose half just as you posted.

So, that takes care of that.  Did you just forget what you posted just hours after you posted it?

But all of that misses the point I made which is in the 6 games in which Graham scored we won 5.  How many more might we have won had we found more ways to keep using him as a scoring threat?  I don't consider that to be Jimmy Graham's problem or his fault.

Few of us had any expectation of him being used as more than a red zone weapon anyway.  I believe if someone had predicted Graham would haul in 50 catches for 450 yards and score 8 TDs he would have been criticized and shouted down by most people in this forum.  Most predicted about half that and thought he was washed up.  What did you post about his signing?

I believe we got our money's worth last year.  Should we keep him and pay him $7 mil or release him and save $7 mil?  That seems to be what Pace and Nagy are pondering right now if Graham declines to accept a reduced salary.

I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other.  What I do see though is that we won't save $7 mil because some of that will need to be used to sign someone to replace him.  Other than JG we have no established "U" TE and Nagy's offense requires one.  So if not Graham then who and for how much.  That's what this topic is all about.