Will Jimmy Graham Be Released?

[WindyCity]

11 hours ago, soulman said:

 

I picked half the season arbitrarily?

No Windy, I picked the final 8 games based upon what you posted.  Eight is on half of sixteen around here.  If one of us chose an arbitrary point from which to make their point agree with their contentions I think that someone is you.  I chose half just as you posted.

So, that takes care of that.  Did you just forget what you posted just hours after you posted it?

But all of that misses the point I made which is in the 6 games in which Graham scored we won 5.  How many more might we have won had we found more ways to keep using him as a scoring threat?  I don't consider that to be Jimmy Graham's problem or his fault.

Few of us had any expectation of him being used as more than a red zone weapon anyway.  I believe if someone had predicted Graham would haul in 50 catches for 450 yards and score 8 TDs he would have been criticized and shouted down by most people in this forum.  Most predicted about half that and thought he was washed up.  What did you post about his signing?

I believe we got our money's worth last year.  Should we keep him and pay him $7 mil or release him and save $7 mil?  That seems to be what Pace and Nagy are pondering right now if Graham declines to accept a reduced salary.

I don't have a strong opinion one way or the other.  What I do see though is that we won't save $7 mil because some of that will need to be used to sign someone to replace him.  Other than JG we have no established "U" TE and Nagy's offense requires one.  So if not Graham then who and for how much.  That's what this topic is all about.

When I said “about half way through last season” I didn’t mean for that to be taken as literally as possible, but I can correct it.

Apologies, at the 62.5% mark of last season he had largely been replaced. His reps had been drastically cut.
 

I think they have to keep him, but hard to see them getting 7 million worth of value out of him.

Edited May 24, 2021 by WindyCity

[soulman]

58 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

When I said “about half way through last season” I didn’t mean for that to be taken as literally as possible, but I can correct it.

Apologies, at the 62.5% mark of last season he had largely been replaced. His reps had been drastically cut.
 

I think they have to keep him, but hard to see them getting 7 million worth of value out of him.

I chose half to intentionally avoid choosing my own arbitrary point based on your post.  If I didn't take it literally then we'd have been debating what point I should have selected.  And yes I know his reps were cut and Kmet was seeing more action as both planned and expected.

My main point was that throughout the season he remained a good red zone scoring threat which was one of the main reasons we signed him to begin with.  If $1 mil per score was worth it then we got our money's worth and a bit more based on catches and yardage.

I'm not on one side or the other of keeping vs releasing I'm only looking at what weighs most in the decision.  At $7 mil he is probably overpaid vs potential production which is why it seems reasonable that Pace would ask him to take a pay cut.

If he refuses and we release him IMHO we won't get the full benefit of that $7 mil in cap saving because I'd have to think that some will need to be spent replacing him and what then?  Can we be certain that whoever that is will be anywhere near as productive?

This is another corner Pace seems to have painted himself into by having to overpay for an aging TE last years because players like Burton and Shaheen failed to produce as expected and he's still left with few options other than to keep Graham.

[dll2000]

Jimmy Graham	52 80%	40 62%	55 67%	41 66%	48 76%	45 68%	48 76%	44 63%	50 65%	29 58%		24 35%	34 49%	29 48%	34 53%	33 46%	30 40%	636
Cole Kmet	20 31%	22 34%	26 32%	15 24%	21 33%	23 35%	20 32%	30 43%	36 47%	35 70%		54 79%	54 78%	51 85%	64 100%	65 90%	67 89%	603

 

Kmet clearly became starter later in year, but Graham was still no. 2 TE and saw plenty of action.    And Kmet only crossed goal line twice despite increased snaps.   

Plus, D. Harris kind of wet bed in games after an impressive camp and Bears kind of gave up on him on late.   Holtz really sucked last year.  Not sure why he decided to stop being a try hard.   Going to get himself cut if he doesn't turn that around.    

So they figured they would like to keep Graham.   

Also, if you watch defenses they are still more afraid of Graham than Kmet in that Graham always draws a safety look or eyes of one safety.   Kmet does not get that respect.

 

 

 

 

 

[MonserinNC]

15 hours ago, dll2000 said:

Jimmy Graham	52 80%	40 62%	55 67%	41 66%	48 76%	45 68%	48 76%	44 63%	50 65%	29 58%		24 35%	34 49%	29 48%	34 53%	33 46%	30 40%	636
Cole Kmet	20 31%	22 34%	26 32%	15 24%	21 33%	23 35%	20 32%	30 43%	36 47%	35 70%		54 79%	54 78%	51 85%	64 100%	65 90%	67 89%	603

 

Kmet clearly became starter later in year, but Graham was still no. 2 TE and saw plenty of action.    And Kmet only crossed goal line twice despite increased snaps.   

Plus, D. Harris kind of wet bed in games after an impressive camp and Bears kind of gave up on him on late.   Holtz really sucked last year.  Not sure why he decided to stop being a try hard.   Going to get himself cut if he doesn't turn that around.    

So they figured they would like to keep Graham.   

Also, if you watch defenses they are still more afraid of Graham than Kmet in that Graham always draws a safety look or eyes of one safety.   Kmet does not get that respect.

 

 

 

 

 

My thoughts exactly....we are all bored and coming up with topics but there is no reason to cut Graham haha

Graham was good last year, a veteran, and Kmet is still just going into year 2.....we also just drafted a QB and Graham has played with Brees, Wilson, and Rodgers.....like c'mon.......no reason to cut him and go with Tyler Effeirt or some dude from the Lions

[Sugashane]

1 hour ago, MonserinNC said:

My thoughts exactly....we are all bored and coming up with topics but there is no reason to cut Graham haha

Graham was good last year, a veteran, and Kmet is still just going into year 2.....we also just drafted a QB and Graham has played with Brees, Wilson, and Rodgers.....like c'mon.......no reason to cut him and go with Tyler Effeirt or some dude from the Lions

Unless there would be some Madden-like trade where we were able to get Ertz, I agree that there are no real moves that improve us at TE now. Maybe we get a better blocker than Holtz that gets cut or someone with the ability to be a leadblocker and play a FB/TE combo for the #3 TE but Graham is a redzone threat at least, keep him for this year and set off to improve next year as he isn't a real threat between the 20s anymore.

[JAF-N72EX]

Graham made 6M last year, not 7M and played about 50% snaps or more in every single game last season. That's not sitting the bench.

Graham was meant to be a stop-gap Y TE while Kmet was/is the long game.  The plan was always to get Kmet more involved but the TE position takes time to develop. So ofcourse Graham saw more playing time in the beginning of the season and less at the end and why his production dropped.  Less snaps = less production.  It's that simple.  Just like Kmet's numbers were down in the beginning and picked up later on.  More snaps = more production.  You can't expect Graham's numbers not to drop AND for Kmet's to increase at the same time. There's only so many [inaccurate] balls to go around. That's just how Nagy's system (and 90% of others) works.  This isn't Greg Roman 2019 Ravens offensive system where TE production is spread out evenly--which was an anomaly and not the norm. This is just another example of why stats only tell part of story.

However, that doesn't mean Graham wasn't worth 6M last year.  By all accounts he was helping mentor and develop the planned future TE(Kmet) like a vet should be doing and that alone is the price of admission. And let's not act like Graham was some bum last season either.

(min 40 targets among all TEs)
Among all TEs | On the team (%)

• T-14th in touches (50) | 6th on the team (7%)
• 14th in targets (76) | 4th on the team (13%)
• 14th in receptions (50)  | 4th on the team (12%)
• 19th in yards (456) | 4th on the team (12%)
• T-4th in TDs (8) | 1st on the team (23%)
• 18th in catch % (65.8%)

That's well worth 6M for what he was paid to do in an unstable offense without an accurate QB. He by far exceeded expectations and anyone who says differently are kidding themselves. The structure of the contract was not bad at all. It was essentially a year deal and releasing him at any time from now to the end of next year would still save 7M.  Which is MUCH better than the alternative free agents would have been last year.

So what was the better alternative last offseason? Cause I remember last year at this time people were banging the table for Hooper, Henry, and laughably Ebron. 

Now lets compare Hooper's production and contract to Graham in 2020

Among all TEs | On the team (%)

• T-16th in touches (46) | 5th on the team (6%)
• 16th in targets (70) | 2nd on the team (15%)
• T-16th in receptions (46) | 2nd on the team (15%)
• 22nd in yards (435) | 3rd on the team (12%)
• T-16th in TDs (4) | T-2nd on the team (15%)
• 19th in catch % (65.7%)

Graham's 2-year 16M contract was essentially a 9M GTD 2-year deal (4.5M per year) with outs after 1 saving 7M this year and the possibility of making 16 in exchange for adding a no trade clause to the contract. Meanwhile, the Browns gave Hooper 23M GTD in a 4/43 deal making him the highest paid TE in history at the time with cap hits of 4, 8, 13, 13, 4  for the next 5 years with no outs after 2 years and very minimal for the next 5.

Here's Henry's production and contract

• 8th in touches (60) | 6th on the team (7%)
• 7th in targets (93) | 2nd on the team (15%)
• 8th in receptions (60) | 2nd on the team (15%)
• 12th in yards (613) | 3rd on the team (13%)
• T-16th in TDs (4) | 3rd on the team (13%)
• 21st in catch % (64.5%)

Chargers used a franchise tag on Henry for 10.7M.

Ebrons production and contract

• T-10th in touches (56) | 6th on the team (7%)
• 8th in targets (91) | 4th on the team (14%)
• 10th in receptions (56) | 4th on the team (13%)
• 16th in yards (558) | 4th on the team (14%)
• 13th in TDs (5) | T-4th on the team (14%)
• 28th in catch % (61.5%)

Steelers signed Ebron to a 2 year 12M deal and was set to make 8.5M last year before they reworked his contract. They added 3 void years and if's on the roster 10 months from now than they have no outs in the next 5 years without taking a hit.

It looks like we made out pretty well in both production AND contract wise vs the alternatives. It's almost as if Pace made the right choice.

 

 

 

[JAF-N72EX]

That said, Kmet is going to be expected to make a leap this year and if he's productive then Graham isn't going to see much playing time and that's not necessarily ideal either for a guy who is set to make 10M this year. We could release him and save 7M but I'm not sure what the better alternative is at this point.

But all that aside. If the #2 TE position is among the biggest concerns on offense going into 2021 and beyond then I'm perfectly fine with that because that means we're heading in the right direction. 

 

[Sugashane]

14 minutes ago, JAF-N72EX said:

That said, Kmet is going to be expected to make a leap this year and if he's productive then Graham isn't going to see much playing time and that's not necessarily ideal either for a guy who is set to make 10M this year. We could release him and save 7M but I'm not sure what the better alternative is at this point.

But all that aside. If the #2 TE position is among the biggest concerns on offense going into 2021 and beyond then I'm perfectly fine with that because that means we're heading in the right direction. 

 

I keep seeing one goal line play from like the 5 in my head.

 

ARob and Mooney on the outside, Mooney goes in motion and runs a drag

Kmet and Graham are up in the slot, both threatening the corners on fade routes while the outside guys work in.

Fields has the arm and accuracy to make something happen.

[dll2000]

Bottom line is Graham was overpaid, but TEs are scarce.   

He was not a bust signing in hindsight for all points @JAF-N72EXmade above.

He was a nice target inside the 20 and by Kmet's account he has done a great job mentoring Kmet which is not without value in itself. 

I think it is also underrated that he still maintains defense respect and attention even with relatively low production whenever he steps on the field.  

Just like a good fake doesn't show up in a box score, but it makes a large difference to a play all the same.

 

[AZBearsFan]

I can’t see them cutting him at this point even if the plan is that he’s just an expensive insurance policy and RZ target. He is limited especially as a blocker but he gives you something in the passing game, and he’s incredibly durable. Much like Holtz and probably Horsted, Jesse James and Richard Rodgers are just guys. Eifert has ended up on IR after playing less than half the season in 4 of 8 career seasons which to me makes him far less appealing to me as an insurance option. Unless you’re dropping Graham to sign Eifert and Rodgers or James it doesn’t make much sense IMO, and if you’re going that route you’re probably not saving much money anyway.

[dll2000]

Just now, dll2000 said:

Bottom line is Graham was overpaid, but TEs are scarce.   

He was not a bust signing in hindsight for all points @JAF-N72EXmade above.

He was a nice target inside the 20 and by Kmet's account he has done a great job mentoring Kmet which is not without value in itself. 

I think it is also underrated that he still maintains defense respect and attention even with relatively low production whenever he steps on the field.  

Just like a good fake doesn't show up in a box score, but it makes a large difference to a play all the same.

 

This kind of goes to Belichick's point about using a players skills to your advantage and minimizing what he does poorly.   

Coaches need to think outside the box more.

For example a play is drawn up to have Y TE block and Graham is at Y TE for that play.

Maybe it is better to sometimes have Graham run a route a take a defender with him rather than attempting to block same defender.   The defender fears his pass catching ability and Graham's blocking is relatively poor.

Even good blockers only usually hold a block for 3 seconds or so.   Maybe the extra space created by backing defender off following Graham downfield is worth more than the block.

When I designed plays I would do this a lot.  I would sometimes run guys off with WRs rather than block them.  If a defender cheated or stopped respecting it I made a note and threw over their heads.

 

[AZBearsFan]

I’d be interested in seeing if the Bears could get Kahale Warring from HOU. He’s probably gonna be no higher than TE3 there with Akins and then their trade for Ryan Izzo this offseason. He was a long term athletic projection type pick in round 3 in 2019 and kind of got lost behind Fells and an emerging Jordan Akins there, but is really the kind of cheap developmental guy what we need behind Graham. A conditional late rounder there would certainly be palatable. 

[soulman]

5 hours ago, MonserinNC said:

My thoughts exactly....we are all bored and coming up with topics but there is no reason to cut Graham haha

Graham was good last year, a veteran, and Kmet is still just going into year 2.....we also just drafted a QB and Graham has played with Brees, Wilson, and Rodgers.....like c'mon.......no reason to cut him and go with Tyler Effeirt or some dude from the Lions

This was the kind of back and forth discussions is was hoping this thread would create.

There aren't many spots where we can shave off a few mil more cap dollars.  Graham is one.....but should we?

We could make the argument that since we're not yet championship caliber as a team why not spend the money elsewhere and pickup another TE for a vet minimum and let Horsted get more reps as the "U" TE to find out whether or not we have anything at all in him.

Conversely we need to show progress on offense and it seems to me that releasing your second best TD producer isn't the direction to take when you're trying to do that.  Graham didn't under produce in 2020 so it's hard to see where he doesn't still have value.

Edited May 25, 2021 by soulman

[soulman]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’d be interested in seeing if the Bears could get Kahale Warring from HOU. He’s probably gonna be no higher than TE3 there with Akins and then their trade for Ryan Izzo this offseason. He was a long term athletic projection type pick in round 3 in 2019 and kind of got lost behind Fells and an emerging Jordan Akins there, but is really the kind of cheap developmental guy what we need behind Graham. A conditional late rounder there would certainly be palatable. 

If we're gonna add a TE this would make more sense to me than overpaying for a marginal vet.

As JAF's post illustrated Graham was actually a very good pickup and IMHO he's still a guy who can be trusted to produce some key catches and scores.  He's here and as far as I'm concerned his contract has more or less paid for itself and can keep on paying off.

It's likely they'll keep Holtz around as a spare "Y" TE/FB do where the focus needs to be is on continuing to look for "U" TE types who will replace Graham in 2022.  Unless Nagy has other plans for that position we'll need someone good to fill that role.

[soulman]

Chicago Bears: Tight end coach alludes to Jimmy Graham’s return

 

by Ryan Taylor 1 hour ago Follow @ryan18taylor

https://dawindycity.com/2021/05/25/chicago-bears-tight-ends-coach-jimmy-graham-return/?utm_campaign=FanSided+Daily&utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email

 

Chicago Bears tight end coach Clancy Barone alluded to Jimmy Graham’s return for the last year of his two-year 16 million dollar contract next season.

“We knew from day one,” said Barone. There was never a doubt that Graham would return next season, according to Barone.

Graham was rumored to be on the chopping block before his contract ended in an attempt to save money from the Bears’ offseason cap issues. However, according to Barone, Graham is here to stay in Chicago next season.

#Bears TE coach Clancy Barone said there was never a doubt that Jimmy Graham would be back this season. "We knew from Day 1."

— Adam Hoge (@AdamHoge) May 12, 2021

 

The Bears undoubtedly have cap issues this offseason. According to overthecap.com, the Bears have the second least amount of cap space in the NFL, with just over $200 thousand left in space. The cap issues are a large issue this offseason.

They are so bad that general manager Ryan Pace was forced to release former all-pro cornerback, Kyle Fuller, to save around $20 million in cap space. The Bears were also rumored to have attempted to trade away star defensive tackle Akiem Hicks to clear cap space. However, in terms of Graham’s status through the Bears’ cap frenzy, he is safe.

"He's invaluable" – @chicagobears TE coach Clancy Barone describing Jimmy Graham – "He led us in scoring!" @markgrotesports @Zack_Pearson @P_Shels @BearsNationCHI pic.twitter.com/GMhyJCr2cK

— SRN Broadcasting (@radiomogul) May 12, 2021

 

Graham was an invaluable asset for the Bears last season. At first, Graham seemed like an overpaid tight end because of his career decline since leaving the New Orleans Saints. However, his performance last season was important to the offense. He caught 50 of his 76 targets for 456 yards and eight touchdowns, which led the team for receivers.

Graham also recorded a 65.8 catch percentage with the Bears, which is the best of his career since 2016 when Graham was with the Seattle Seahawks. That statistic is important because we know how inaccurate Bears’ quarterbacks have been. The Bears’ quarterbacks last season were on target 75.7 percent of the time. That ranked 20th in the NFL.

Bears quarterbacks also recorded 104 bad throws last season, according to pro-reference statistics. That ranked 24th in the NFL. The Bears also held a 17.4 bad throw percentage, which was bottom tier in the league.

The Bears require a stable tight end to fit into Matt Nagy’s scheme. Just look at how important Travis Kelce is to Andy Reid’s offense, which is the offense Nagy bases his off of.

Cole Kmet has yet to fill the role that Nagy and Pace hope for at the tight end. The 2020 second-rounder only recorded 243 yards and two touchdowns last season from 28 receptions. However, Kmet was invited to “Tight End U,” a tight end summit for the best in the country.

Until Kmet’s rise of stardom, Graham will be the go-to guy at the tight end position for the Bears next season. The Bears did use him a lot, especially in goal-line situations, using a Nagy-patented diamond formation to isolate him on the weak side of the field.