What should the Texans do at Offensive Coordinator?

[PAtexansFAN_99]

Hey everyone! It's been a whiiiile.. since I've been postiiin. It's been a minute haha, some of ya'll might remember me from the before times. Anyway..

Tim Kelly. How do we feel about him?

I'm conflicted. I guess I'll start with the good news. I think it's reasonable to give some credit to Kelly for Mills development. I think that when the running game has been effective, we've been a much better offense than I think anyone would've anticipated us being before the season, and I'm not sure it's entirely Kelly's fault that the ground game doesn't work. I think that one's probably on Caserio for signing a bunch of old RBs. I feel like the right running back could produce behind our current OL, we could definitely improve the OL, we could improve everything, but, yea I don't think it's fair to blame Kelly for the personnel issues. Additionally, Mills' progress has been slow and steady, and I'm not sure its the best idea to ask him to start completely over. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect that plan to work better than if we retain Kelly. Also, Kelly is relatively green as a play caller, but much like Mills he's shown enough flashes that I'm intrigued by his potential. 

Bad news is, whatever he's got us doing, it just never really looks easy. Like back in the day, back in 2011, the way the Texans played offense that isht looked eeasy. That was pretty. This BoB swiss army knife, we're whatever we need to be type offense.. hasn't been, for the most part. I am the only one who wants to take it back to the Shanahanian zone bootleg offense? Mills could do it, right? Just pare the passing game down a bit, focus on the ground game. Also, did ya'll see them play-action fakes in the Chargers game? Mills is NICE on the ball fakes man. But yea, I think it's definitely possible that there's a better way for the Texans to do offense.

[lumberjackchris]

Anyone but Kelly for me. I don't know this, but I assume the credit for his growth so far is because of Pep. 

[Texansfan713]

WELCOME BACK!!!  Good to see an old timer post again.  Only need Blaze now. lol

Im going to make it short and sweet.  He should have been gone last season.  It would be stupid to bring him back after this season.  Our offense has actually gotten worse this season.  I know we dont have Watson at QB but the numbers our offense has is historically bad. 

[PAtexansFAN_99]

29 minutes ago, Texansfan713 said:

WELCOME BACK!!!  Good to see an old timer post again.  Only need Blaze now. lol

Im going to make it short and sweet.  He should have been gone last season.  It would be stupid to bring him back after this season.  Our offense has actually gotten worse this season.  I know we dont have Watson at QB but the numbers our offense has is historically bad. 

Thank you! I've really missed this. But, don't you feel like Kelly isn't entirely to blame for all of the offensive troubles? Like, if we'd have added an actual quality RB or two (which I expect us to do this offseason), don't you feel like our offense might've been actually pretty good? Even with our random assortment of offensive linemen. I'm just saying like, in my mind there's a scenario where the Texans retain the entire coaching staff, draft Kenneth Walker in the 2nd round (or the first if we can trade down enough times), and Mills in his second year in the same offense starts cracking skulls. It could be a different RB, but I really like Walker. Like, even if we switch offensive systems/play caller, that won't be enough. The offense needs a serious makeover from  a personnel perspective. 

I've also heard people talking about promoting Pep Hamilton to OC, but I'd be hesitant to do that too because I think he's doing such a good job at his current job and I don't want to mess it all up by shuffling the deck. 

The only way I'd be down to replace Kelly is if we can find someone who's decisively better. I think we could do worse.

[jch1911]

All fair points... but IIRC, Pep is QB Coach and passing game coordinator.

I think that alone should merit a promotion to OC... our run game has been atrocious this year.

Last year, it was DW4 escape & accuracy that resulted in most positive pass plays with TK at the helm.

TK gotta go

[ET80]

42 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

All fair points... but IIRC, Pep is QB Coach and passing game coordinator.

I think that alone should merit a promotion to OC... our run game has been atrocious this year.

Last year, it was DW4 escape & accuracy that resulted in most positive pass plays with TK at the helm.

TK gotta go

Agreed here - I'd put more of the development of Mills on Pep Hamilton. If anyone gets the shot at OC, it's him (with Josh McCown finally joining the coaching staff as a QB/Passing game coordinator).

The OL didn't take the leap forward I was expecting when James Campen took over as OL coach, but that's a large reason this run game is so bad - the IOL is really bad (the T play is also not good, but that's another discussion).

It's safe to presume Max Scharping is a bust, Justin Britt isn't here next season, Jim Morissey is a swing OL at absolute best, Lane Taylor is past the point of useful, Marcus Cannon was a typical Caserio special, Laremy Tunsil wants out and needs to be traded for picks - the only two OL worth keeping are Tytus Howard (at LT) and Charlie Heck (at RT). The rest of the unit needs to be overhauled. The Texans need to find a good vet at C (not a guy coming off an ACL from an OL that was consistently bad, like Britt) and spending two high draft picks on two guards who will be thrown into the fire. Whatever picks received from Tunsil go towards the IOL.

It all starts at OL, and the Texans need to aggressively build that up. Sure, Kenneth Walker and Isaiah Spiller are shiny toys, but they'll bust out if the Texans don't put the right resources in front of whoever is playing RB.

[jch1911]

39 minutes ago, ET80 said:

Agreed here - I'd put more of the development of Mills on Pep Hamilton. If anyone gets the shot at OC, it's him (with Josh McCown finally joining the coaching staff as a QB/Passing game coordinator).

The OL didn't take the leap forward I was expecting when James Campen took over as OL coach, but that's a large reason this run game is so bad - the IOL is really bad (the T play is also not good, but that's another discussion).

It's safe to presume Max Scharping is a bust, Justin Britt isn't here next season, Jim Morissey is a swing OL at absolute best, Lane Taylor is past the point of useful, Marcus Cannon was a typical Caserio special, Laremy Tunsil wants out and needs to be traded for picks - the only two OL worth keeping are Tytus Howard (at LT) and Charlie Heck (at RT). The rest of the unit needs to be overhauled. The Texans need to find a good vet at C (not a guy coming off an ACL from an OL that was consistently bad, like Britt) and spending two high draft picks on two guards who will be thrown into the fire. Whatever picks received from Tunsil go towards the IOL.

It all starts at OL, and the Texans need to aggressively build that up. Sure, Kenneth Walker and Isaiah Spiller are shiny toys, but they'll bust out if the Texans don't put the right resources in front of whoever is playing RB.

I don't think you're going to get equitable value for Tunsil at this point (although a 1st and solid depth player would work for me at this point).

Howard was just fine at RT and actually thriving.  I put that on Caserio & TK.  I think Campen likes athletic linemen, built for ZBS like offense; I get the vibe that Caserio & TK stressed that versatile-OL hooey that has players bouncing all over the place (as well as injuries & CoViD)

I do think we need to invest in OL via the draft, especially IOL.  I would also like to see a player like James Daniels signed to a prove it FA contract.  I think he would excel with Campen and a chance to rehab his image outside of Chicago.

I could live with an OL of (L to R): Tunsil - Scharping - Daniels - Green (TAMU - 2nd or 3rd) - Howard.  I actually think that is a great passing OL and could be a good ZBS run game OL.  Depth would be Morrissey & McCrary (or bring back Kyle Fuller) at IOL and Heck + Carson Green at OT.

[ET80]

26 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

I don't think you're going to get equitable value for Tunsil at this point (although a 1st and solid depth player would work for me at this point).

You're absolutely selling him at a loss. San Francisco got a superior player in Trent Williams for a 2/4, so getting that would be a small victory. If someone offers 2/4, you take it - you open cap space to the tune of $18mm, and you avoid a really bad 2023 cap figure.

Unless Bill O'Brien suddenly finds himself in a GM role, you're not getting what you paid for - in terms of what was given up or what was paid via contract. This transaction was arguably one of the worst transactions in football - both the trade and contract extension. 

The Tunsil experiment is over, and the Texans lost. Period. Turn the page, take the L.

26 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

Howard was just fine at RT and actually thriving. 

I actually like him at LT subbing in for Tunsil, but I agree he's not a G.

26 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

I do think we need to invest in OL via the draft, especially IOL.  I would also like to see a player like James Daniels signed to a prove it FA contract.  I think he would excel with Campen and a chance to rehab his image outside of Chicago.

I'm done with prove it contracts. I don't know if it's something in the water here, but they rarely prove it. Justin Britt was a prove it and he was a disaster at C. If you're looking for a C, find someone who is hitting the market with a proven track record or draft someone very high at C (Iowa C Tyler Linderbaum at 2.3 works for me).

26 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

I could live with an OL of (L to R): Tunsil - Scharping - Daniels - Green (TAMU - 2nd or 3rd) - Howard.  I actually think that is a great passing OL and could be a good ZBS run game OL.  Depth would be Morrissey & McCrary (or bring back Kyle Fuller) at IOL and Heck + Carson Green at OT.

I think Tunsil is already out - and part of it is he does not want to be here. His thumb injury was a four week turnaround; it's been 11 weeks, he's Jalen Ramsey-ing it, he doesn't want to play for this team, IMO.

As far as Scharping, I've seen enough to say he's not NFL caliber. He's indecisive, he misses assignments frequently, he's soft at the POA for a guy his size, his footwork is poor, his hand punch and redirect is poor - the only thing he brings to the table is his size, and he can't even use that correctly down in the trenches. 

Over the spectrum of G in recent Texans history, the only G that I'd say Scharping is better than is Xavier Sua-Filo. Give me Senio Kelemete or Jeff Allen over him - Scharping has the physical tools, he just lacks the football IQ or assertive temperament to be an effective OL. You can drill in the football IQ, but the temperament is a deal breaker. In the words of the late Kobe Bryant, Scharping is...

[jch1911]

@ET80How about a 2 year contract with a team option on the 2nd year (instead of a prove it deal)?  

[ET80]

27 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

@ET80How about a 2 year contract with a team option on the 2nd year (instead of a prove it deal)?  

I'd rather draft Linderbaum and be done with it for the next 7-10 years. 

[jch1911]

6 minutes ago, ET80 said:

I'd rather draft Linderbaum and be done with it for the next 7-10 years. 

I get it... just thinking contingency... I think the DW4 trade has to happen first before I start thinking multiple 1st round picks - especially with that no trade clause in his pocket (as well as... is that... is that a banana?)

[PAtexansFAN_99]

So, we need personnel changes, especially on the OL, which is probably the most important position group on any offense, but everything is still TK's fault? Isn't some of this OBs fault for missing on Scharping? Caserio's fault for signing a bunch of old *** RBs? Is it  reasonable  to expect any OC to be able to run the football given the personnel we had on offense? Will no one defend TK? I remember the days when TK was an up and comer. Dude was dialing up that goodness for a decent while there with Deshaun, and even this year with Mark Ingram and David Johnson in the backfield, musical chairs on OL, and a rookie QB who only played 10 college games er whatever, he's gotten some things going. 

Just saying, imagine we make whatever additions you'd like us to make, but TK gets to call plays, is it impossible that that could work out? I could see it working. 

Wouldn't be mad if we swtiched though.. lol. 

[jch1911]

1 hour ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

So, we need personnel changes, especially on the OL, which is probably the most important position group on any offense, but everything is still TK's fault? Isn't some of this OBs fault for missing on Scharping? Caserio's fault for signing a bunch of old *** RBs? Is it  reasonable  to expect any OC to be able to run the football given the personnel we had on offense? Will no one defend TK? I remember the days when TK was an up and comer. Dude was dialing up that goodness for a decent while there with Deshaun, and even this year with Mark Ingram and David Johnson in the backfield, musical chairs on OL, and a rookie QB who only played 10 college games er whatever, he's gotten some things going. 

Just saying, imagine we make whatever additions you'd like us to make, but TK gets to call plays, is it impossible that that could work out? I could see it working. 

Wouldn't be mad if we swtiched though.. lol. 

I get you... and sadly that may come to pass.

I just think TK was retained because of his "relationship" with DW4.

But if you look at about 80% of the "success" the offense had last year, it was because DW4 was making plays after the play call broke down.  (But that's just from me watching the game, I have no advanced metrics to back that up.)

Pep has shown an above average success rate with a variety of offenses and QBs. (Once again, cursory glance of his track record - not metrics supported.)

[PAtexansFAN_99]

17 minutes ago, jch1911 said:

I get you... and sadly that may come to pass.

I just think TK was retained because of his "relationship" with DW4.

But if you look at about 80% of the "success" the offense had last year, it was because DW4 was making plays after the play call broke down.  (But that's just from me watching the game, I have no advanced metrics to back that up.)

Pep has shown an above average success rate with a variety of offenses and QBs. (Once again, cursory glance of his track record - not metrics supported.)

I dono if I buy that narrative that TK was retained to appease Watson given the fact that Watson never seemed to be a part of the plan. I'd also argue again that what Watson was overcoming was arguably a personnel shortcoming rather than a play calling deficiency. I feel like nobody's looking at the full half of the glass. 

In 2019 in his first year as OC the Texans went 10-6. We got Carlos Hyde up over 1,000 yards with Tim Kelly calling plays. Then we trade Hopkins and explode everything, then replace all the exploded **** with affordable back up/special teams type guys (like Chris Moore who Kelly's schemed open for TDs on multiple occasions this season) and he has to basically start from scratch with all new quarterbacks. I just think when you really consider the circumstances you've got to admit there's something there. Mills has played well enough for me to believe that he might be an above average starting QB moving forward, Kelly built an offense that made that possible with hardly any high quality starters on that side of the ball. If the Texans had, for instance, Derrick Henry, or Jonathan Taylor or something like that, I don't think we'd be talking about switching coaches. 

[ET80]

2 hours ago, PAtexansFAN_99 said:

but everything is still TK's fault?

It's not, but he's a big part of the problem. So far, his track record is he can be productive... if he has a top 3 QB playing above his pay grade, throwing to two really good WRs. Even last season the run game was atrocious, you have to go back to BoB in '19 to find the last run game that was even remotely good (Carlos Hyde going for 1,000). 

He had two years to find some sort of consistency, and he failed to do that. This is a "perform or go home" industry - only 32 OC jobs in the NFL, and you have to demonstrate your worth at some point to keep getting checks. Perhaps he needs to go to a position coach or back to a college team, because OC of an NFL team is not his strength.

Tim Kelly hasn't performed. You can make excuses, but his offense this season was once ranked 32nd in passing, 32nd in rushing and 32nd in points scored, not even the 0-16 Lions or 0-16 Browns did that, this was a historically bad offense. 

He's not THE problem... but he's A problem. But, he's probably keeping his job... because Easterby likes him.