Nacho Simulation Football League (Season 23 - Taco Bowl XXIII POSTED!)

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

15 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

I can do the math

Its coming up with the importance of the various factors as it pertains to predicting future wins.

Turnovers to me (mostly fumbles) have too much of a luck element because fumble recoveries are random. INTs are more skill, and i would factor INTs and forced fumbles together maybe with forced fumbles possibly counting for half the value of an INT

Makes tons of sense.

I tend to think that, in a general sense, yards should hold more weight than points, as a team that can consistently gain yards (and stop the opposing team from gaining yards) is likely a good team. Points can come at odd and inconsistent times. (Example: we went for it late against the Predators, down by 8, on the Predators' 20 or so yard line. Had we settled for 3, it would look better in the metric, but going for it was the right decision.)

There are likely tons of counterpoints to the above that would render it obsolete. Still, that's how I think a solid metric would be weighed: yards, points, INTs, FFs, 3rd down %.

Edited April 8, 2022 by TL-TwoWinsAway

[Malfatron]

13 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

Heres a potential formula

Net yards + 10 * net points + 40 *net int + 20* net forced fumble + 50 *net 3rd down conversion pct

My rationale.

All of these would be the same value

Getting 200 yards more than opp

Getting 20 points more than opp

Getting 5 more int than opp

Getting 10 more ff than opp

Getting 4% higher 3rd down pct than opp

 

3rd down conv are usually between 39-43 percent except for outliers that can be punished or rewarded. Most teams wouldnt see that much increase in score even though 50 is the multiplier

FF and INTs have a degree of luck, so i think they should be worth less like they are above. They are just the gravy to the score, when the meat is yards and points

Edited April 8, 2022 by Malfatron

[Malfatron]

I loled at this stat

Little rock:

Fumbled: 7 (Per Game: 0.88)
Fumbles Lost: 0 (Per Game: 0.00)

Egypt:

Fumbled: 7 (Per Game: 0.88)
Fumbles Lost: 7 (Per Game: 0.88)

[Malfatron]

1 hour ago, Malfatron said:

Heres a potential formula

Net yards + 10 * net points + 40 *net int + 20* net forced fumble + 50 *net 3rd down conversion pct

Well, Im gonna use this formula to see what we got this week

Its the halfway point, lets do something more special than punter stuff

Edited April 8, 2022 by Malfatron

[bucsfan333]

19 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

Its the halfway point, lets do something more special than punter stuff

That's for birthdays and anniversaries.

[Malfatron]

Formula

Net yards + 10 * net points + 40 *net int + 20* net forced fumble + 50 *net 3rd down conversion pct

Power rankings

1. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (6-2) - 1474

2. Richmond Flying Squirrels (6-2) - 1333

3. Freiburg Venom (6-2) - 813

4. Hanoi Viet Kongs (4-4) - 761.5

5. Indianapolis Predators (5-3) - 519.5

6. New Zealand Blobfish (4-3-1) - 436

7. Norway Knights (5-3) - 423

8. Nassau Sea Wolves (3-5) - 224.5

9. Egypt Starfalls (3-5) - 147.5

10. Scranton Papermakers (5-3) - 38

11. Cox's Freedom Fighters (2-6) - (-35.5)

12. Little Rock Uni Royals (7-1) - (-67)

13. Tacoma Thunder (4-4) - (-254.5)

14. Burl Sock Puppets (3-4-1) - (-337)

15. Reykjavík Direwolves (5-3) - (-572)

16. Phoenix Rattlers (3-5) - (-724)

17. Pittston Waste Walruses (4-4) - (-894)

18. Anchorage Moose (1-7) - (-915)

19. Lanc Fighting Amish (2-6) - (-1019.5)

20. Ant Penguin Poppers (1-7) - (-1267)

[Malfatron]

Lets see how that new metric does with W9 games

 

Edited April 8, 2022 by Malfatron

[Malfatron]

 

WEEK 9 (Sun, April 10)
Freiburg Venom @ Antarctica Penguin Poppers
Little Rock Uni Royals @ Anchorage Moose
Nassau Sea Wolves @ New Zealand Blobfish
Hanoi Viet Kongs @ Reykjavík Direwolves
Rio de Janeiro Pirates @ Lancaster Fighting Amish
Tacoma Thunder @ Cox's Bazar Freedom Fighters
Egypt Starfalls @ Indianapolis Predators
Scranton Papermakers @ Pittston Waste Walruses
Burlington Sock Puppets @ Norway Knights
Phoenix Rattlers @ Richmond Flying Squirrels

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

35 minutes ago, bucsfan333 said:

That's for birthdays and anniversaries.

I giggled.

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

7 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

Formula

Net yards + 10 * net points + 40 *net int + 20* net forced fumble + 50 *net 3rd down conversion pct

Power rankings

1. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (6-2) - 1474

2. Richmond Flying Squirrels (6-2) - 1333

3. Freiburg Venom (6-2) - 813

4. Hanoi Viet Kongs (4-4) - 761.5

5. Indianapolis Predators (5-3) - 519.5

6. New Zealand Blobfish (4-3-1) - 436

7. Norway Knights (5-3) - 423

8. Nassau Sea Wolves (3-5) - 224.5

9. Egypt Starfalls (3-5) - 147.5

10. Scranton Papermakers (5-3) - 38

11. Cox's Freedom Fighters (2-6) - (-35.5)

12. Little Rock Uni Royals (7-1) - (-67)

13. Tacoma Thunder (4-4) - (-254.5)

14. Burl Sock Puppets (3-4-1) - (-337)

15. Reykjavík Direwolves (5-3) - (-572)

16. Phoenix Rattlers (3-5) - (-724)

17. Pittston Waste Walruses (4-4) - (-894)

18. Anchorage Moose (1-7) - (-915)

19. Lanc Fighting Amish (2-6) - (-1019.5)

20. Ant Penguin Poppers (1-7) - (-1267)

Very interesting. The team with the top record sits at 12th, while the three teams with 2 or fewer wins are all at the bottom. Lots to digest there. It'll be interesting to see how it performs this week.

[Malfatron]

21 minutes ago, TL-TwoWinsAway said:

Very interesting. The team with the top record sits at 12th, while the three teams with 2 or fewer wins are all at the bottom. Lots to digest there. It'll be interesting to see how it performs this week.

If these metrics serve as a good barometer, heres the predicted final playoff bracket (just taking the winners being the higher ranking)

(Obviously games are going to swing one way or another, but it might be a good barometer)

It primarily tells me to not sleep on those Kongs

 

Cheezy:

1. Rio de Janeiro Pirates 14-2

2. Little Rock Uni Royals 12-4

3. Norway Knights 11-5

4.Hanoi Viet Kongs 10-6

 

Salsa

1 Richmond Flying Squirrels 14-2

2 Freiburg Venom 13-3

3 Indianapolis Predators 11-5

4 Scranton Papermakers 10-6

Edited April 8, 2022 by Malfatron

[TL-TwoWinsAway]

8 minutes ago, Malfatron said:

Cheezy:

1. Rio de Janeiro Pirates 14-2

2. Little Rock Uni Royals 12-4

3. Norway Knights 11-5

4.Hanoi Viet Kongs 10-6

 

Salsa

1 Richmond Flying Squirrels 14-2

2 Freiburg Venom 13-3

3 Indianapolis Predators 11-5

4 Scranton Papermakers 10-6

Might be the best metric yet. None of that would surprise me.

[Glen]

11 hours ago, Malfatron said:

Formula

Net yards + 10 * net points + 40 *net int + 20* net forced fumble + 50 *net 3rd down conversion pct

Power rankings

1. Rio de Janeiro Pirates (6-2) - 1474

2. Richmond Flying Squirrels (6-2) - 1333

3. Freiburg Venom (6-2) - 813

4. Hanoi Viet Kongs (4-4) - 761.5

5. Indianapolis Predators (5-3) - 519.5

6. New Zealand Blobfish (4-3-1) - 436

7. Norway Knights (5-3) - 423

8. Nassau Sea Wolves (3-5) - 224.5

9. Egypt Starfalls (3-5) - 147.5

10. Scranton Papermakers (5-3) - 38

11. Cox's Freedom Fighters (2-6) - (-35.5)

12. Little Rock Uni Royals (7-1) - (-67)

13. Tacoma Thunder (4-4) - (-254.5)

14. Burl Sock Puppets (3-4-1) - (-337)

15. Reykjavík Direwolves (5-3) - (-572)

16. Phoenix Rattlers (3-5) - (-724)

17. Pittston Waste Walruses (4-4) - (-894)

18. Anchorage Moose (1-7) - (-915)

19. Lanc Fighting Amish (2-6) - (-1019.5)

20. Ant Penguin Poppers (1-7) - (-1267)

Based on my math I’d have 2116.5?

Edited April 8, 2022 by Glen

[Glen]

-205 + 10 * 32 (=320) + 40 * 0(=0) + 20* 4(or7)(=80/140) + 50 * 46.43(=2321.5)

[Malfatron]

17 minutes ago, Glen said:

50 * 46.43

Net 3rd down conversions you need