Final Mock 2022

[soulman]

5 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

The Bears sently most DB staff down to Houston more than likely to interview Marcus Jones who could be an excellent NB & returner at the next level...I have watched both Hall & Winfrey and for a pure 3 tech would take Winfrey everything...Hall is a 5 tech IMO...

I wouldn't put Zion & Cole in the same level at all...Zion should go in the 1st...Cole is a late 2nd early 3rd IMO.

OK, what I'm saying is that Smith (6.33), Johnson (6.34), and Strange (6.29) all carry similar rankings and grades so on that basis they would be seen as having similar values.  I don't just make this stuff up.  Where each is drafted would have more to do with how specific teams value each but since we don't know what any teams board looks like (we only think we do based on the media mocks) predicting their drafts slots with accuracy is pretty tough to do.

For instance.  Team A really likes Zion Johnson who carries a 2nd round grade but team A has no 2nd round pick but badly needs a starting OG so Johnson goes in round one instead.  Or team B likes Strange but feels he won't be available when they next pick so they trade up for him taking him half a round or more ahead of his ranking.  Smith falls below his grade due to his penalties.  Mocks are so inaccurate I really don't know why anyone even bothers with them except for maybe the top ten picks.

Hall's position in the NFL could depend greatly on who drafts him.  DeForest Buckner was similar in size to Hall when he was drafted and his scouting reports also projected him as a 3-4 DE.  Now he's a 3 tech DT at Indy playing in a 4-3 just as we'll be playing in Chicago.  This is where "Flus" opinion will carry much weight and I can assure you the Bears didn't go down to Houston only to look at Marcus Jones whom I hope they avoid.  They were definitely looking at Hall as well to either rule him in or rule him out.

A former Bears whom Hall might also compare to is Dan Hampton who played both as a DE and a DT during his career and while you may not be as concerned with versatility the Bears always have been and based on even their current situation they still are.  The 2023 draft may have an even better 3 tech prospect we can draft in round one and Hall then moves to RDE replacing Quinn so versatility does matter to Poles and "Flus" even when it doesn't matter to you.  If Winfrey was that good why isn't he a top 20 pick?

Edited April 18, 2022 by soulman

[Madmike90]

36 minutes ago, soulman said:

OK, what I'm saying is that Smith (6.33), Johnson (6.34), and Strange (6.29) all carry similar rankings and grades so on that basis they would be seen as having similar values.  I don't just make this stuff up.  Where each is drafted would have more to do with how specific teams value each but since we don't know what any teams board looks like (we only think we do based on the media mocks) predicting their drafts slots with accuracy is pretty tough to do.

For instance.  Team A really likes Zion Johnson who carries a 2nd round grade but team A has no 2nd round pick but badly needs a starting OG so Johnson goes in round one instead.  Or team B likes Strange but feels he won't be available when they next pick so they trade up for him taking him half a round or more ahead of his ranking.  Smith falls below his grade due to his penalties.  Mocks are so inaccurate I really don't know why anyone even bothers with them except for maybe the top ten picks.

Hall's position in the NFL could depend greatly on who drafts him.  DeForest Buckner was similar in size to Hall when he was drafted and his scouting reports also projected him as a 3-4 DE.  Now he's a 3 tech DT at Indy playing in a 4-3 just as we'll be playing in Chicago.  This is where "Flus" opinion will carry much weight and I can assure you the Bears didn't go down to Houston only to look at Marcus Jones whom I hope they avoid.  They were definitely looking at Hall as well to either rule him in or rule him out.

A former Bears whom Hall might also compare to is Dan Hampton who played both as a DE and a DT during his career and while you may not be as concerned with versatility the Bears always have been and based on even their current situation they still are.  The 2023 draft may have an even better 3 tech prospect we can draft in round one and Hall then moves to RDE replacing Quinn so versatility does matter to Poles and "Flus" even when it doesn't matter to you.  If Winfrey was that good why isn't he a top 20 pick?

And what I am saying is I disagree with those rankings and feel there are very clear break points between all three prospects...

Hall is around the same height as Buckner but that is where the comparison stops...Hall has short arms for his height at just 32 3/4"...Buckner nearly 2" shorter than Foster...I also don't see any way us lining up with a 6-6" 285lbs RE to replace Quinn down the road in this scheme...he just isn't a fit IMO.

[Madmike90]

44 minutes ago, soulman said:

If Winfrey was that good why isn't he a top 20 pick?

The tape doesn't show a 1st round pick...mostly because Oklahoma play their DL mostly in 2 gap...they also do a ton of slanting rather than allowing their DL to try and win 1on1 up the field...his run D is also not on the same level as the likes of Davis, Wyatt & Jones...

Winfrey is a clear high upside projection but at just 21 years old with great size, length & athletic upside he would be perfect in this scheme.

[Sugashane]

14 hours ago, JAF-N72EX said:

I know I may be alone on this but Pierce moves more like an undersized TE than a WR from what I've seen (albeit that hasn't been alot).  I also question his hands. I see people talking about his catching technique but he catches the ball with his body a little too often for my liking. Even in spots when he shouldn't. But that's just a small critique and is something that's teachable.

Plus, he's a Packers fan...... so there's that too.

Nice work Madmike.

Not alone at all.

I think of him kind of like Claypool, both can be move ends (need a few pounds to fill that role but still have top tier athleticism there) but can also be the X receivers (by traits alone at least). He definitely has some technical flaws and I think that might be part of the issue youre alluding to. If you watch him watch his feet, sometimes he may cut off a longer, exaggerated plant-step. Sometimes there are too many chop steps, sometimes he rounds a bit. The lack of consistency seems like he might have thrown off the timing for the throw.

I may be way off on that theory but it was an issue that I had when I first got to college. We had a very timing-based pass game ("three and free", "five and fire" were tattooed into my damn brain) and in high school we were a run and gun. So I had to learn to quit trying to just break a press and run and learn to make my first steps consistent for every route. This is where I became a big fan of Jimmy Smith, dude was an absolute technician, didn't really have any tells on his routes. I think Pierce has to be coached up the same way. He has the work ethic clearly and all the athleticism needed, just needs to get to work with a real WR coach and hopefully a cagey vet to follow around and learn from.

[soulman]

8 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

And what I am saying is I disagree with those rankings and feel there are very clear break points between all three prospects...

Hall is around the same height as Buckner but that is where the comparison stops...Hall has short arms for his height at just 32 3/4"...Buckner nearly 2" shorter than Foster...I also don't see any way us lining up with a 6-6" 285lbs RE to replace Quinn down the road in this scheme...he just isn't a fit IMO.

Granted there are some physical differences between Buckner and Hall.  Mostly hand size and about 1.5" inches of arm length but otherwise both are about the same height 6'6"-6'7" and similar in weight 285-295lbs.  Buckner was also a top ten (7th) overall pick vs a guy whose carrying a 2nd round grade going in.  Of course there's gonna be some difference but overall Flus has used a guy who was initially drafted as a 3-4 DE as his 3 tech DT at Indy.  Perhaps he sees similar potential in Hall but with added versatility.

Poles should be looking for DL who will fit into Flus plan to rotate his DL throughout that game and Hall may be a fit for that kind of work as a rookie much like RRH did playing at both DE and DT on passing downs.  I'm not criticizing the Winfrey pick if he's Poles guy I'm simply adding to the list of possibilities as far as DL who might be on Poles board.  If Winfrey is taken prior to our pick whose your alternative for a DL?  You may not have one but I'm sure Poles does just as he did when the Ogunjobi deal collapsed.

As for the OL while you may see a clear break point all I'm saying is their Combine grading indicates less difference than even one round.  That's how NFL scouting compares them objectively.  Subjectively as you and NFL teams may do maybe there is a break between them in talent.  Or maybe one or another just fits better with what the team who drafts him is looking for.  We know by now that these grades and rankings are not 100% accurate nor do they always predict where a player may be drafted but may be close.

If you believe I'm criticizing your mock, I'm not.  I'm just adding to it is all.  I like Winfrey as well for his more Tommie Harris like profile and I also like Cole Strange.  But Poles and Eberflus may like someone completely different so I've be more apt to search out several players all grading and ranking around the same level and pegged them as to where they might be drafted in comparison to where we pick.  Of course once the picks start rolling in or a trade takes place all that could go out the window just as your mock could.

Do me a favor.  When all is said and done tally up just how many picks you've hit on and tell me whether all of that work was worth it.

[soulman]

8 hours ago, Madmike90 said:

The tape doesn't show a 1st round pick...mostly because Oklahoma play their DL mostly in 2 gap...they also do a ton of slanting rather than allowing their DL to try and win 1on1 up the field...his run D is also not on the same level as the likes of Davis, Wyatt & Jones...

Winfrey is a clear high upside projection but at just 21 years old with great size, length & athletic upside he would be perfect in this scheme.

That's possible but if you can project him as one of the best 3 tech DT in this draft why aren't those with far more skill and experience scouting players and their fits and upsides projecting him higher than a 2nd round pick especially when there are fewer DT with 3 tech traits than others.  Or maybe they do and he goes much earlier.

Don't get me wrong. I do like the kid but his college scouting reports indicate some issues with playing the run and a tendency to go for the kill shot making highlight plays while missing others.  In a certain way he's much like Ogunjobi who also carried that kind of criticism with him.  Splash plays are much harder to come by in the NFL than at Oklahoma.

But all that aside Poles and "Flus" may be willing to overlook all of that in order to get another young 3 tech DT the can work with and develop a more well rounded player out of.  I'm not against the pick all I'm saying is he has some holes in his game or he would be a top 20 pick in this draft.  I'm also saying we need some alternatives for that position.

Edited April 19, 2022 by soulman

[Madmike90]

47 minutes ago, soulman said:

Granted there are some physical differences between Buckner and Hall.  Mostly hand size and about 1.5" inches of arm length but otherwise both are about the same height 6'6"-6'7" and similar in weight 285-295lbs.  Buckner was also a top ten (7th) overall pick vs a guy whose carrying a 2nd round grade going in.  Of course there's gonna be some difference but overall Flus has used a guy who was initially drafted as a 3-4 DE as his 3 tech DT at Indy.  Perhaps he sees similar potential in Hall but with added versatility.

Poles should be looking for DL who will fit into Flus plan to rotate his DL throughout that game and Hall may be a fit for that kind of work as a rookie much like RRH did playing at both DE and DT on passing downs.  I'm not criticizing the Winfrey pick if he's Poles guy I'm simply adding to the list of possibilities as far as DL who might be on Poles board.  If Winfrey is taken prior to our pick whose your alternative for a DL?  You may not have one but I'm sure Poles does just as he did when the Ogunjobi deal collapsed.

As for the OL while you may see a clear break point all I'm saying is their Combine grading indicates less difference than even one round.  That's how NFL scouting compares them objectively.  Subjectively as you and NFL teams may do maybe there is a break between them in talent.  Or maybe one or another just fits better with what the team who drafts him is looking for.  We know by now that these grades and rankings are not 100% accurate nor do they always predict where a player may be drafted but may be close.

If you believe I'm criticizing your mock, I'm not.  I'm just adding to it is all.  I like Winfrey as well for his more Tommie Harris like profile and I also like Cole Strange.  But Poles and Eberflus may like someone completely different so I've be more apt to search out several players all grading and ranking around the same level and pegged them as to where they might be drafted in comparison to where we pick.  Of course once the picks start rolling in or a trade takes place all that could go out the window just as your mock could.

Do me a favor.  When all is said and done tally up just how many picks you've hit on and tell me whether all of that work was worth it.

Your only using one data source to form that opinion though...which is NFL.com...there are a ton of better websites out there to form a more rounded opinion...there is also the fact I can form my own opinion while watching these guys...I see Johnson's tape as better than Smith who might have more upside but isn't as plug and play and Strange's who isn't going to play in a power scheme...that is where the break points are obvious for me...

And a mock is not suppose to be perfect...it is an impossible task due to the fact you can never project trades or a team doing the something completely unexpected which resets the board completely...the aim is not to hit on guys...it's to show what you would do with who you think could be available...just a bit of fun...no one is sitting thinking they are going to nail it.

[Madmike90]

40 minutes ago, soulman said:

That's possible but if you can project him as one of the best 3 tech DT in this draft why aren't those with far more skill and experience scouting players and their fits and upsides projecting him higher than a 2nd round pick especially when there are fewer DT with 3 tech traits than others.  Or maybe they do and he goes much earlier.

Don't get me wrong. I do like the kid but his college scouting reports indicate some issues with playing the run and a tendency to go for the kill shot making highlight plays while missing others.  In a certain way he's much like Ogunjobi who also carried that kind of criticism with him.  Splash plays are much harder to come by in the NFL than at Oklahoma.

But all that aside Poles and "Flus" may be willing to overlook all of that in order to get another young 3 tech DT the can work with and develop a more well rounded player out of.  I'm not against the pick all I'm saying is he has some holes in his game or he would be a top 20 pick in this draft.  I'm also saying we need some alternatives for that position.

I can think of two very big very athletic kids from Georgia who will make it more difficult to be 1st round picks...teams looking for 2 gap players will also love Travis Jones...this is a pick'em draft where different teams will want and value different things...Winfrey could go late first to late second...just depends on what teams value.

[soulman]

23 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

Your only using one data source to form that opinion though...which is NFL.com...there are a ton of better websites out there to form a more rounded opinion...there is also the fact I can form my own opinion while watching these guys...I see Johnson's tape as better than Smith who might have more upside but isn't as plug and play and Strange's who isn't going to play in a power scheme...that is where the break points are obvious for me...

And a mock is not suppose to be perfect...it is an impossible task due to the fact you can never project trades or a team doing the something completely unexpected which resets the board completely...the aim is not to hit on guys...it's to show what you would do with who you think could be available...just a bit of fun...no one is sitting thinking they are going to nail it.

You assume I'm only using that data source because it's one that actually provides grading which is then used to create rankings which most NFL boards will use in preparing their own boards.  I've looked at other sources as well but you may have dug even deeper.  I don't enjoy doing mock drafts because they tend to be a lot like masturbation.  Satisfying only to ones self.

Zion Johnson could very easily go late in round one or earlier in round two than #39.  He's very good but his popularity league wide is why we need multiple prospects at each position of need.  If he falls to us maybe Poles jumps up and holler whoopee or maybe he's already decided to trade #39 for a later 2nd and more picks.  Today we have no idea what may happen on Day Two.

Strange's limitations as primarily a zone blocker coming from a non-Power 5 program will drop him some and Smith is very young and very raw but also has played LT which is a plus.  But what you may be overlooking is when all is said and done the least of these three or last drafted may end up as the best as a pro and that is what the NFL website is also projecting for us.  Not just a grade.

So I take that and other sources and come to the conclusion that any one of the three would probably be a good pick for us but also that Smith and/or Strange will more than likely be available after Johnson is off the board.  This is what I meant by saying Poles needs multiple prospects for each pick he makes.  If the better one falls to him he takes him and if not he still has options who fit.

The problem I have with mocks is they always zero in on one specific player whereas in real life in NFL War Rooms every team has multiple choices lined up for their picks and those choices may diminish as players are taken off the board.  So why not do a mock with at least two choices for every pick if not more?  If your #1 is gone whose your fall back.  That's all I did with using Winfrey and Hall who by consensus rate around the #40-#60 pick give or take.  One compilation from a half dozen or more sites had Winfrey going around #45 and Hall ten picks later at #55 so in that regard they're seen as having comparable value as 2nd round picks.

[Madmike90]

2 minutes ago, soulman said:

You assume I'm only using that data source because it's one that actually provides grading which is then used to create rankings which most NFL boards will use in preparing their own boards.  I've looked at other sources as well but you may have dug even deeper.  I don't enjoy doing mock drafts because they tend to be a lot like masturbation.  Satisfying only to ones self.

Zion Johnson could very easily go late in round one or earlier in round two than #39.  He's very good but his popularity league wide is why we need multiple prospects at each position of need.  If he falls to us maybe Poles jumps up and holler whoopee or maybe he's already decided to trade #39 for a later 2nd and more picks.  Today we have no idea what may happen on Day Two.

Strange's limitations as primarily a zone blocker coming from a non-Power 5 program will drop him some and Smith is very young and very raw but also has played LT which is a plus.  But what you may be overlooking is when all is said and done the least of these three or last drafted may end up as the best as a pro and that is what the NFL website is also projecting for us.  Not just a grade.

So I take that and other sources and come to the conclusion that any one of the three would probably be a good pick for us but also that Smith and/or Strange will more than likely be available after Johnson is off the board.  This is what I meant by saying Poles needs multiple prospects for each pick he makes.  If the better one falls to him he takes him and if not he still has options who fit.

The problem I have with mocks is they always zero in on one specific player whereas in real life in NFL War Rooms every team has multiple choices lined up for their picks and those choices may diminish as players are taken off the board.  So why not do a mock with at least two choices for every pick if not more?  If your #1 is gone whose your fall back.  That's all I did with using Winfrey and Hall who by consensus rate around the #40-#60 pick give or take.  One compilation from a half dozen or more sites had Winfrey going around #45 and Hall ten picks later at #55 so in that regard they're seen as having comparable value as 2nd round picks.

It is a given that you have to have multiple options at not just position but also value...if a you have even two of these three available but a guy you rank in the top 20 then you have to pivot and take them because talent should always win out...

When doing a mock you consider all of that then just have to pick between realisim and preference...you have to lock in someone and again I am not saying any of these picks happen...just what I would like to see based on the projections.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

I can think of two very big very athletic kids from Georgia who will make it more difficult to be 1st round picks...teams looking for 2 gap players will also love Travis Jones...this is a pick'em draft where different teams will want and value different things...Winfrey could go late first to late second...just depends on what teams value.

Yes, and that is exactly what I've been saying to you regarding any of the players we've discussed.  Teams value the same player differently and some may not even be on their board period due to lack of fit, injuries, character issues, etc.  We can't know this and neither can Mel Kiper or any of his talking head draft weekend cohorts.  They're horrible prognosticators but that's not their job anyway.  They're primarily entertainers filling time between picks with their particular brand of bull crap ad nauseum.

Certain players are over drafted every year based on need.  Others are under drafted because they don't fit a profile for their position.  That's how we ended up with a Kevin White bust but a Darnell Mooney steal.  The Bears have a stable of HOF MLB.  Why us and not others?  Maybe it's because it's a position we've valued more than others and draft higher value MLB.  I suppose that's a benefit because we've sucked at drafting QBs so long you have to go back to Sid Luckman for one of our HOF QBs.

The NFL Draft is a lottery where theoretically the poor can get richer by having first crack at the best prospects each year but it always seem to work far better in theory than it does in practice because it's not an exact science.  Roughly 50% of all top picks fail to live up to their draft status.  It's one reason why I actually prefer more 2nd-6th round picks with which to build using a 1st only for a player who can surpass expectations or a position I can't draft later on and get the same caliber player like a QB.

Edited April 19, 2022 by soulman

[soulman]

10 minutes ago, Madmike90 said:

It is a given that you have to have multiple options at not just position but also value...if a you have even two of these three available but a guy you rank in the top 20 then you have to pivot and take them because talent should always win out...

When doing a mock you consider all of that then just have to pick between realisim and preference...you have to lock in someone and again I am not saying any of these picks happen...just what I would like to see based on the projections.

So.....for you and others who mock it's a fun exercise but can we at least agree that few individual mocks ever end up being accurate?

I found that one member on another forum who took the time to combine many mocks and average them as far as draft position goes actually had what I believe may be the best approach.  For me it would take most of the emotion and favoritism out of it and create a situation more similar to what actual NFL GMs face on draft weekend.  For instance.

If the consensus of all of those mocks and projections say Winfrey goes around the 45th pick and I own #39 and #48 do I draft him at #39 or take my chances he'll still be there at #48?  To make that decision more informed I look at whose drafting between #39 and #48 and how likely it is they'll take a DT whose best spot will be the 3 tech in a 4-3 front.

If I'm feeling good that I can get him at #48 then I can use #39 on another player or I can trade back for more picks.  So I decide to trade back to #53 and pick up another 3rd.  But team "X" trades into #46 and takes Winfrey off the board.  Damn.  Well I can still grab my second choice Logan Hall and find good value there plus I've added another 3rd round pick.

I've never been in a war room but I have a feeling that's about how it works all day long as the GM, HC and staff all huddle up and lay out there plans within plans as the day rolls on.  By day 3 we probably see fewer trades as teams focus even more on simply whose the BPA on their board at that pick and we may see more debating over certain players who may have slipped down the board.

[JAF-N72EX]

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

And a mock is not suppose to be perfect...it is an impossible task due to the fact you can never project trades or a team doing the something completely unexpected which resets the board completely...the aim is not to hit on guys...it's to show what you would do with who you think could be available...just a bit of fun...no one is sitting thinking they are going to nail it.

If only we had a website called something like footballsfuture to share different opinions about draft prospects and post mocks on.

Be right back, I'm gonna have a talk with Webby and see if he's interested in helping me set one up.

 

[Madmike90]

6 hours ago, soulman said:

So.....for you and others who mock it's a fun exercise but can we at least agree that few individual mocks ever end up being accurate?

I found that one member on another forum who took the time to combine many mocks and average them as far as draft position goes actually had what I believe may be the best approach.  For me it would take most of the emotion and favoritism out of it and create a situation more similar to what actual NFL GMs face on draft weekend.  For instance.

If the consensus of all of those mocks and projections say Winfrey goes around the 45th pick and I own #39 and #48 do I draft him at #39 or take my chances he'll still be there at #48?  To make that decision more informed I look at whose drafting between #39 and #48 and how likely it is they'll take a DT whose best spot will be the 3 tech in a 4-3 front.

If I'm feeling good that I can get him at #48 then I can use #39 on another player or I can trade back for more picks.  So I decide to trade back to #53 and pick up another 3rd.  But team "X" trades into #46 and takes Winfrey off the board.  Damn.  Well I can still grab my second choice Logan Hall and find good value there plus I've added another 3rd round pick.

I've never been in a war room but I have a feeling that's about how it works all day long as the GM, HC and staff all huddle up and lay out there plans within plans as the day rolls on.  By day 3 we probably see fewer trades as teams focus even more on simply whose the BPA on their board at that pick and we may see more debating over certain players who may have slipped down the board.

I don't think anyone has ever said differently.

[Sugashane]

16 hours ago, soulman said:

I don't enjoy doing mock drafts because they tend to be a lot like masturbation.  Satisfying only to ones self.

 

Either you're REALLY good at mocks or REALLY bad at the other to make that comparison. 😂

 

Just playing though, I understand what you're saying.