If Trevor Lawrence is just as bad next year where would he start to rank among all-time busts?

[Soggust]

On 6/1/2022 at 3:36 PM, FrantikRam said:

 

I'd say probably not:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WarnKu00.htm

Mahomes first two years starting > Warner's first two years starting but the Herbert comment is contingent on QBs who started their rookie year.

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I'm actually thinking I would take Marino's first two over Herbert.

						Passing															Rushing
Rk	Player	From	To	AV	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Lng
1	Justin Herbert	2020	2021	31	32	15-17-0	839	1267	66.2	9350	69	97.9	72	25	63	432	7.4	7.58	6.71	6.90	118	536	8	4.5	36
2	Dan Marino*	1983	1984	31	27	21-4-0	535	860	62.2	7294	68	104.5	85	23	23	200	8.5	8.86	8.03	8.40	56	38	2	.7	15

Passing							Rushing
Rk	Player	From	To	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Att	Yds	TD
1	Justin Herbert	2020	2021	26.2	39.6	292.2	2.2	0.8	2.0	13.5	3.7	16.8	0.3
2	Dan Marino*	1983	1984	19.8	31.9	270.1	2.5	0.9	0.9	7.4	2.1	1.4	0.1

[HerbertGOAT]

14 hours ago, Soggust said:

Mahomes first two years starting > Warner's first two years starting but the Herbert comment is contingent on QBs who started their rookie year.

-----------

I'm actually thinking I would take Marino's first two over Herbert.

						Passing															Rushing
Rk	Player	From	To	AV	G	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	Rate	Lng	Int	Sk	Yds	Y/A	AY/A	NY/A	ANY/A	Att	Yds	TD	Y/A	Lng
1	Justin Herbert	2020	2021	31	32	15-17-0	839	1267	66.2	9350	69	97.9	72	25	63	432	7.4	7.58	6.71	6.90	118	536	8	4.5	36
2	Dan Marino*	1983	1984	31	27	21-4-0	535	860	62.2	7294	68	104.5	85	23	23	200	8.5	8.86	8.03	8.40	56	38	2	.7	15

Passing							Rushing
Rk	Player	From	To	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	Yds	Att	Yds	TD
1	Justin Herbert	2020	2021	26.2	39.6	292.2	2.2	0.8	2.0	13.5	3.7	16.8	0.3
2	Dan Marino*	1983	1984	19.8	31.9	270.1	2.5	0.9	0.9	7.4	2.1	1.4	0.1

Marino did it in a league tougher against passing as well. Herb is the best rookie QB of all time, but the 1st two years is an interesting debate. Marino is probably the best 1st two years of all time.

[Soggust]

9 hours ago, HerbertGOAT said:

Marino did it in a league tougher against passing as well. Herb is the best rookie QB of all time, but the 1st two years is an interesting debate. Marino is probably the best 1st two years of all time.

Tried to find anyone even remotely close to debate it and I can't. Wish it wasn't true.

[HerbertGOAT]

10 hours ago, Soggust said:

Tried to find anyone even remotely close to debate it and I can't. Wish it wasn't true.

Dak and Big Ben have solid arguments imo, but that's about it.

[ronjon1990]

If he busts, it would be a pretty big bust. 

That said, there's levels to busting when one busts. 

If he's not a transcendent franchise changer (what was expected by many) is he a decent bridge type? 

If he's not a decent bridge type, is he a solid backup? 

If he's not a solid backup, is he at least a replaceable but serviceable backup? 

When I think of "all time" busts, I think of Jamarcus Russell or Manziel types that nobody even cared to bring around as a backup project or even a Matt Leinart who could barely keep a hold on being QB3 on a weak depth chart. 

If Lawrence never really progresses beyond how he played last year, he'd be a "bust" as far as expectations. But he showed enough last year that I'd welcome him as a backup at the very least, keeping him out of the all-time bust category. 

It would be a big deal, but he's not going to be one of the biggest busts ever unless he totally flops AND regresses. 

[BeaReylo]

On 5/18/2022 at 12:51 PM, Yin-Yang said:

You’re not wrong, but in all fairness, Urban Meyer was infinitely worse than anyone expected…

Urban Meyer's antics last year was a bad Law & Order:  SVU episode waiting to happen.  Lawrence having an actual pro coach will make a big difference IMO.

Edited June 14, 2022 by FosterTheSkins